The BS "Top 10"
Naturally, the draft talk is heating up. In an effort to mix things up a bit, why don't we take a break from the "Yes QB / No QB" and "Yes Upshaw / No Upshaw" talk, and take a stab at trying to sort out the premier talents in this draft. I've posted one mock draft so far and plan on posting another two, but I'm waiting on the all star games for the next one.
The idea of this list is to slot the 10 best players as I see them right now, and then point out some guys who (in my opinion) have the skill set to shoot up draft boards and into the top 10 come April. Between now and then there will absolutely be one or more players who go from 'fringe first rounder' to 'absolute top15/10 pick', thereby shaking everything up. Von Miller did it last season, and I believe someone will do it again this season. The good news here is: the Bills will not have to settle for second tier talent in the first round of the 2011 draft. There is definitely more than 10 complete studs in this draft class, which means one or more will certainly be on the board when the Bills pick. But who are they? That's the tricky part.
1) Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) 6'4 235lbs
Nothing to see here. We can dream of this man wearing a Bills uniform all we want, but it's impossible.
2) Matt Kalil (OT, USC) 6'7 295lbs
Probable franchise LT. Bills have no chance at Kalil.
3) Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) 6'0 185lbs
Skill set to develop into a premier man-to-man cornerback in the NFL. Quite possibly the best pure cover guy of the LSU studs (Peterson, Claiborne, Mathieu).
4) Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) 5'11 224lbs
Adrian Peterson kind of talent, except he's actually stronger. His being a running back could push him down to the Bills at 10, and although they would likely pass on him for obvious reasons (and probably should in that situation), I think that would be a tougher decision to make than most realize. Richardson can be special.
5) Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) 6'2 220lbs
Nothing to see here. We can dream of this man wearing a Bills uniform all we want, but it's very close to impossible.
6) Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) 6'3 192lbs
Significantly better tackler and zone defender than Claiborne, but doesn't have the same kind of man-to-man capability. Can still very much be a big time NFL cornerback with his strength and aggression.
7) Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma St.) 6'1 215lbs
Best and most pro ready receiver in this year's draft. Nowhere near the talent of last year's sensation AJ Green, but can still be a difference maker in the pros.
8) David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) 6'5 310lbs
Unlikely to be a top10 pick because of his position, but make no mistake: DeCastro is a rare interior OL prospect, and one of the best future pros of this draft class.
9) Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) 6'6 300lbs
I'm not completely sold on Reiff becoming great NFL left tackle, but nonetheless I believe he warrants a high draft pick because of his upside to be at least a good one. Has the ability to become a starter at RT if the speed on the left proves to be too much for him.
10) Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) 6'6 306lbs
This man is incredibly powerful. I think he made a good decision coming out early (RS sophomore) because he's immediately the best defensive tackle in this class. Definitely more run stuffer /block occupier than gap shooter, though.
This next list is 5 guys, in no particular order, who I think all have a chance to crack the top 10 in the coming months with the combine, all star games, and pro days.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) 6'4 222lbs
I'll get him out of the way. As the third best QB in this class (which he almost certainly is with T. Wilson returning to Arkansas), Tannehill could definitely rise into the top10. Without the senior bowl, the interviews at the combine will be huge for him, as well as any time he can throw in front of scouts (whether it be the combine or A&M's pro day). I'm not sold on him by any stretch, but not including him in this list would be silly. If Buddy Nix is sold on Tannehill as a franchise QB by April, this is 100% the player the Bills should be drafting.
Nick Perry (OLB, USC) 6'3 250lbs
Another name that will crop up around here a lot in the coming weeks/months. I think he's the best pure 3-4 OLB in this draft class. His first step is not elite, but it's very good. He's got the strength and frame to develop into a solid run defender in the pros. Even though he wasn't very productive against Stanford (3 total tackles), I was still impressed by the game he played against Jonathan Martin, often being too much for the 'elite LT' to handle cleanly. Perry's lack of production in that game was more about Andrew Luck's prowess than Martin's, in my opinion.
Jerel Worthy (DT, MSU) 6'3 310lbs
Devon Still will probably be the guy most people talk about as being second (or first) best DT in this draft. I'm a bigger fan of Worthy. He is just as quick off the ball and violent in his hand usage as Still, but Worthy plays the run with better leverage and has more power/bulk in his lower half. I think his skill set translates very well to the pros and that he can be disruptive in a number of different ways.
Dont'a Hightower (LB, Alabama) 6'4 260lbs
As we all know, Courtney Upshaw's name caught fire around here pretty quickly. I think Upshaw is very clearly the second best linebacker prospect on his college team. Hightower is just as versatile and powerful as Upshaw is, and I think he would be the one with all the sacks if Saban had him rush the passer more often. I'd venture a guess that Hightower tended to play in the middle of that defense because he's the more rangy athlete. When he was asked to rush the passer I was much more impressed with his first step and burst than I was Upshaw's. I believe Hightower's ceiling is significantly higher and that he has the ability to do just about anything very effectively in the pros.
Bruce Irvin (LB, WVU) 6'3 245lbs
Bruce Irvin has two major problems: (1) with his thinner frame, he'll have a difficult time setting the edge and playing the run effectively in a 3-4 scheme. (2) he was way out of place in WVU's 3-3-5 defense which limited his playing time and production. I think Bruce Irvin is a similar athletic talent to Von Miller, but he's also a much bigger risk because of he's more of a projection with his lesser experience. His burst off the line is hands down the best in this draft class, and his change of direction skills are elite (and I mean elite) for his size. He also plays the game like his helmet's on fire. If he develops properly I think he can be an impact defender in the NFL for a coaching staff smart enough to play him off the line (in space, where he won't necessary have to meet blockers head on) in running situations, and to get after the quarterback from several different spots in passing situations.
There you have it. My top10 as of now, and 5 of the guys (I had a very tough time trimming that down to 5) I think have a real shot to rise up the draft boards this offseason and into the top15.
Who did I miss? Who do you want to fall to the Bills? Who on this list actually stinks and doesn't have a prayer? This post is for discussion purposes. Questions/comments are strongly encouraged.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
33 comments
|
8 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I like Dont'a Hightower
I said after the BCS game he should be the Bills first pick. As you said he is versatile and has a great first step. I think he can be an elite 3-4 OLB in the NFL.
Also I don’t want to create a discussion on Tannehill, but besides Der Jaeger, I have not read many great reviews on him. Not saying DJ is wrong, because no one really knows. But I just read an article about the top 5 QBs in the draft and he wasn’t listed. He was mentioned after. Chandler Harnish was #3.
You are now Watching The Throne.
ya there will be differing opinions on that, obviously. i would bet that the general consensus will be that tannehills the third best. remember this entire post is opinion.
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
yea I read through the insanely long post on him
I don’t know much about the QBs, just something I read from a fanshot.
You are now Watching The Throne.
Agree on Hightower
He definitely has the makings of an elite LB, and I think the mocks that show him going late 1st round are dead wrong. Bills will consider him if they don’t pick up a high quality linebacker in FA.
by NoiseIsTheBestRevenge on Jan 13, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
exactly
but even if they do (get a quality FA OLB) I think they should. Nix said he wanted to get depth at ILB, and even though Hightower would start right away at 3-4 OLB (IMO), he could help at that position if needed. His versatility is a plus. Just reading the scouts inc report on him and they are saying he is very athletic, but he looked good in the Championship game. I think a lot of the reason they are saying that is because he is playing ILB, and you need to be very fast there. OLB not as much, not as big of an area to cover, not as deep of zones in coverages, etc.
You are now Watching The Throne.
If we go to a 4-3
a guy I would like us to get beside Hightower would be Luke Kuechly. He can play OLB in a 4-3 and would give us a very formidable line backing group. I don’t see us getting him because of his size, but a very good player who I think is at least top 15.
You are now Watching The Throne.
by tomcs on Jan 13, 2012 9:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Haven’t seen Michael Brockers play, but what I’ve read of him has me very intrigued. My question is if he could slim down to 285-290 and be an effective 4-3 DE and 3-4 DE. Anyone who’s watched LSU football be able to comment on that?
Jerel Worthy (DT, MSU) 6’3 310lbs
Devon Still will probably be the guy most people talk about as being second (or first) best DT in this draft. I’m a bigger fan of Worthy. He is just as quick off the ball and violent in his hand usage as Still, but Worthy plays the run with better leverage and has more power/bulk in his lower half. I think his skill set translates very well to the pros and that he can be disruptive in a number of different ways.
If we stay in the 3-4, I’d love to have Jerel Worthy and Marcell Dareus bookending Kyle Williams. We’d still need our pass-rusher(s) but this line would be dominant. Devon Still’s play just looks uninspiring to me.
Beyond the guys you listed, I think Floyd and Jeffery might merit consideration for picks 12-20. Floyd might be the slightest of reaches at 10 but I don’t think we’d lose too much value drafting him at 10.
Da'Jon McKnight - WR, Nick Toon - WR, Marvin McNutt - WR, Dan Persa - QB, Russell Wilson - QB, Whitney Mercilus - DE, Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB, Jared Crick - 3/4 or 4/3 DE, Alshon Jeffery - WR, Michael Floyd - WR, Ryan Tannehill - QB
Yea
that would be a great DL, although I dont know if we can give up on Carrington yet. But I take it you think Floyd is better than Jeffery? Personally I like Jeffery more and would like to us draft him. I think he has the best chance to be a Calvin Johnson type receiver, it will be interesting to see his times at the combine because if he runs well I think he could be a Top 10 pick or at least top 15.
You are now Watching The Throne.
I’d be equally happy with either of those two WRs. Plus, even if we draft Worthy with the intention of staying a a 3-4, I figure Carrington will make good rotational depth (those big uglies can only play so many snaps a game before getting gassed).
The other reason I think Worthy would be a good pick (re: Boomsauce) is that with the possibility of no 3-4 OLB worth pick 10, a dominant line of Dareus-Williams-Worthy might make our average OLBs look much better since they will have to face less blockers.
Da'Jon McKnight - WR, Nick Toon - WR, Marvin McNutt - WR, Dan Persa - QB, Russell Wilson - QB, Whitney Mercilus - DE, Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB, Jared Crick - 3/4 or 4/3 DE, Alshon Jeffery - WR, Michael Floyd - WR, Ryan Tannehill - QB
by NordicBillsfan on Jan 13, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
brockers should not be moved to 4-3 DE. i dont think hes got the quickness to play out there. he needs to be in the middle (or a 3-4 DE) primarily playing gap control. he can be very, very, very good in that capacity.
i obviously really like worthy too, but i think its a moot point. i think DT is the one position (besides RB) we can be almost completely positive buddy nix will not be spending a premier pick on. nix and gailey are very comfortable with the inerior dlinemen they currently have i think
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
Love this write up... nice and simple
I am no college football viewer, but I always look to those who are so I know who the Bills will be picking the top 11 or so picks in the draft…
Remember last year when Nick Fairly was mocked at no. 1? Yeah, I do too… so here we are and anything is possible… QBs going one and three and a receiver at 2…? Probably not with Jeff Fisher heading the Rams staff, but there is plenty of intrigue, and the Bills have plenty of needs (every team does really… )
Love hearing about the corners and LBs… I think any of them that falls could be our pick… Hightower and Perry seem very intriguing as well as the 6’3" corner Kirkpatrick… excellent to defend those NE tight ends…
I doubt we trade up or grab an OT this high in the draft… our OL was very servicable… a WR is not out of the question either, but I like our chances of nabbing one a little later… awesome TE wouldn’t be bad… we need to stock Fitz with weapons and get this defense rolling… two things that are hard to do, but with a draft and FA, guess what… 31 teams will all be doing the same thing
I'm waitin'..... @killascript on twitter
ya i pretty much agree with everything u said there. though i hope people realize this is a list of the kind of pro football players i think these guys become, not necessarily the order id want the bills to prioritize them. i agree on OT, reiff quickly became a popular pick to the bills among draftniks- i think those guys havent paid close enough attention to buddy nix’s style.
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
I think Irvin
would be a no brainer in the second. If he’s still there.
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
Thanks Boom!
I don’t watch a lot of college football so every post like this helps me gain insight.
Rec’d.
"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 13, 2012 10:08 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Thats what i was going to say, draft day for dummies, exactly what I needed to understand what everyone was arguing about around here. Up in Canada don’t get to see much college ball, so the more info the better, great post.
Why I'm a optimistic Bills fan:
The road that is built in hope is more pleasant to the traveler than the road built in despair, even though they both lead to the same destination.
- Marion Zimmer Bradley
Hightower is a 3/4 inside guy
If Claiborne is there at 10 buffalo should snatch him up over any pass rusher still available
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Jan 13, 2012 11:08 PM EST via mobile reply actions
but see, this is where i disagree on hightower. i think he could play as a 3-4 ILB, but i also think hell be good as a 3-4 olb, or a 4-3 de (in spots), or a 4-3 sam, or 4-3 mike… i think his skill set allows him to do multiple different things. in the bills case the most important of them is that he can get after the quarterback
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
I dont disagree but i see him a better fit
On the inside ala patrick willis a can do everything kind of guy would love to snag him in the second or trade up to get him
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Jan 14, 2012 12:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Either can play multiple positions...
Hightower played basically every linebacker position while at bama. After his knee injury, he seemed to lose a bit of explosion and was much more productive inside. I think thats why Bama ended up using Upshaw more at the Jack position. Also Upshaw just seemed to play a balanced game run v. pass with a nice number of tackles for a loss.
This is not to say that Hightower isn’t the better pass-rushing prospect in the NFL (taller, maybe more athletic), but there was a reason Upshaw won the pass-rush role and kept it while at Bama. Of course, Hightower might be more fully recovered from that knee injury. Not sure who will have the short distance speed at the combine and that might be the difference.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Jan 14, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
there was a reason Upshaw won the pass-rush role
it very well could have been injury related. i was just wildly speculating that both of them couldve been productive pass rushers, but hightower (being the better athlete) was the one who would be better in the middle of the field covering more grass. again, its wild speculation based on how i see these guys: hightower couldve done upshaws job rushing, upshaw could not have done hightowers job in the middle.
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
@Gpluehri
Unless Claiborne is injured somehow there’s no way he’s there at 10. He might not be there at 5.
Most people have him going to Minnesota
If he gets past Minnesota he wont get past Cleveland but if some miracle happens and he is there he is a no brainer
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Jan 14, 2012 1:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I would like upshaw too but I have an unfair bias towards him and this post isn't about him
With that said my realistic wants at 1st round picks would be Kirkpatrick, Reiff, Jeffery, and Irvin. I definitely agree with boomsauce that, if developed properly, would be the best pass rusher from the draft.
by TheHesterEffect on Jan 13, 2012 11:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
This is a great post
Great job boomsauce. You picked up on two things that I think are very important:
1.) I can’t see Brockers not going in the top ten, now that he’s declared. He reminds me of Marcus Stroud when he came out of Georgia, just less polished. I don’t think he makes it to the Bills pick, though if he did, he’s a defender worthy of the pick. I couldn’t imagine a 3-4 line with Brockers-Williams-Dareus as the front.
2.) You see Hightower as a potential outside linebacker. Great observation – I posted about Hightower against Xavier Nixon a while back. Hightower is a quality pass rusher when he gets opportunities.
I like your thoughts on Hightower especially. Most folks look at players eligible for the draft and pick, eg: what they can’t do. What you did was project. That’s the trick. The key question isn’t “what can’t this guy do or be?” but “what’s this guy going to be in 3 years?” You hit on it exactly.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 14, 2012 1:53 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
ESPN
Was just talking about Miami trying to trade up with the Rams to get RG3…
That would made me so mad for 2 reasons.’
They would be better and we did not do it.
Id take Moore as a #2 though
"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-
Unless of course, RG3 ends up being a bust. It would probably take quite a fortune for them to move up to #2, so you know they won’t be able to help other areas of their team as much.
I also don’t know if the Rams would go for it. My money is on them staying put and taking someone like Blackmon unless they’re sure they can get him a few picks later.
Any thoughts on Luke Kuechly?
if we go 4-3. Kuechly- Shepp- Barnett would be great. But we would still need 2 DEs. It would be a similar to if we stay 3-4 a Jerel Worthy pick, because we would still need 2 OLB. When I did see Kuechly play I was very impressed.
You are now Watching The Throne.
he is a true ILB and wouldnt go outside IMO
Ay Ay Ay Ayyyyy
by BuffaloBillsBigestFan on Jan 14, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Kuechly could play outside and do very well, but you’re losing too much value in drafting him that high to play OLB in a 4-3. Someone will definitely draft him to play inside. His instincts are a pretty big part of what makes him great and his ability to be the rock in the center of a defense is what gives him his draft value. If I were looking at him as an OLB, I’d grade him out as a fringy first rounder.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
kuechlys tough to figure out for me. his instincts are off the charts, but hell likely always be hampered by his not-so-great athleticism. nonetheless hes someone who can start day 1 on an NFL defense and make some plays
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
Any thoughts on Whitney Mercilus?
DE out of Illinois who fits the mold Nix laid out (listed 6’4" 265). Led NCAA in sacks this seasons with 16. One year wonder though. I’ve heard both positives and negatives about his overall game and pass rushing skills, but I havent seen this guy play a down so I dont have any kind of real opinion on him.
i think mercilus is a hustle guy. hes not very quick off the ball, he doesnt redirect well or play fast in space. he got his sacks on hustle and technique. mercilus is a guy that would probably back up chris kelsay, and i personally dont see him as a top 20 pick. second round? maybe…
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
Good post!
Personally, I really like Worthy from Michigan State and Brockers from LSU. Especially when this team needs to stop the run and has not for over a decade now.
As resident nut for all things Hawkeyes – I’m not sold on Reiff at the Bills pick #10 at all.
He’s very good, yeah – but not that great. He’ll be a non-descript, serviceable pro.
Ferentz molds a good o-line that is technically sound, and plays well as a unit. But Iowa does not get the blue chip recruits – not even close. Reiff’s lack of athleticism will be exposed in the pro’s just as Robert Gallery’s was. There’s a heck of a lot more Iowa gaurds in the pros than tackles. Marshall Yanda playing with Baltimore now, for example.

by 




























