Could Mario Williams be Buffalo's Jared Allen?
by Der Jaeger on Jan 15, 2012 11:15 PM EST
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PrintMost talk about Buffalo acquiring Mario Williams has been dismissed on this board. I decided to check it out.
Houston's Defense. They certainly didn't miss Williams like everyone thought. Houston finished the season with the 4th best defense in the NFL. The Texans were 3rd best against the pass and 4th best against the run in the league. And they finished 6th in the league in sacks, despite their sack-master only playing five games - though it should be noted that five of Houston's 44 sacks came from Williams in those five game.
Williams' replacement, Connor Barwin, recorded a team high 11.5 sacks. The other outside linebacker Brooks Reed, sacked the quarterback six times. And the Texans have more than just two good outside linebackers to rush the quarterback: end Antonio Smith recorded 6.5 sacks and rookie J.J. Watt recorded 5.5 sacks.
All of which doesn't amount to anything, really, except to say that Houston is good without Williams. An argument can be made that the return of Williams could make this the best defense in the league. There are more factors to consider.
The Texans are one of the teams in the league that will have salary cap issues this off-season. Charley Casserly recently reported that the salary cap may not increase a significant amount. Houston entered last off-season $7.6 million under the cap, according to John Clayton, and were less than $1 million under the 2011 cap at the start of the season.
Houston only has one important UFA in center Chris Myers. They also have Arian Foster, who is restricted, but the money that he'll receiver is more important. Williams is going to want money that places him among the highest paid at his position, and he's making ~ $15 million now. Houston may be in for a Terrell Suggs -esque position fight with Williams, who stands to get more money as a defensive end than an outside linebacker, as the Texans list him. Houston might consider this move to create cap space to keep the team together in the future.
For those who think Williams won't move, consider the similarities between Williams and Jared Allen. Both entered contract years at 26 years old. Both were proven pass rushers entering their contract year. Both played for teams transitioning from 4-3 to 3-4 defenses. Kansas City franchised Allen in February of 2008, then sent him to Minnesota just prior to the draft. Minnesota sent a first round pick, two third round picks, and a 6th round pick to KC for Allen and a 6th round pick. While Kansas City has drafted Branden Albert and Jamaal Charles with those picks, I think Minnesota is happy with their deal.
Allen and Williams aren't that different. In Allen's first four seasons, all with the Chiefs, he recorded 9, 11, 7.5, and 15.5 sacks, respectively, for a total of 43 sacks. In Williams' first four seasons, all with the Texans, he recorded 4.5, 14, 12, and 9 sacks respectively, for a total of 39.5 sacks. Williams also has two more seasons, 2010 where he had 8.5 sacks, and this season, with 5 sacks in 5 games.
Could Buffalo, well under the cap, make a trade for Williams? It would free up cap space for the Texans, and add picks to continue to build what looks like the future dominant team in the AFC. The Texans have also proven that they can be great on defense without Williams. Buffalo might have to commit to a 4-3, but Williams would warrant that. And Buffalo might get what Minnesota had with Allen and the Williams Wall, in Williams-Williams-Dareus. It could be Buffalo's Williams Wall.
What to do? Buffalo could make this trade, if at all, at two points. It's all moot if Houston doesn't franchise him, but I think most people are in agreement that Houston will. So, would Nix make the trade prior to the draft, and forfeit the 10th pick? Or, does he play coy, and pull a Drew Bledsoe-trade move, waiting until after the draft and trading Buffalo's 2013 first rounder?
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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A good opportunity
I voted Nix would pull a Bledsoe; I also think he might throw in a 2012 pick (say 3rd) plus next year’s 1st and 4th. If he went say Tannehill or a pass rusher with 10, day 2 could be dedicated to whatever he wanted and he knows he’s taken care of 2 major needs of 4.
No way the Texans can keep him.
Especially with how well the other OLBs are playing. and as you said they would pretty much have to choose between Foster, Chris Myers, or him. I voted a Bledsoe type move. Although I don’t see it happening, but the dream will keep the off season exciting hah.
ON another note what happened to the Why so serious post? I was talking to someone about Russell Wilson there I thought..
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I had it open when it was closed. The creator (SatanMutantDanFan) posted something along the lines of, and I’m paraphrasing (haha), “I just wanted to create peace, these allegations against me are insulting…etc.” When I refreshed it was gone.
Also that was me who wanted Wilson as a developmental QB.
Also, to the OP, I’ve been saying this for a little bit. If Houston franchises him, they have 4 good OLBs, lots of good players they need to pay besides Mario, and might be willing to give him up for a decent draft pick. It would benefit both parties to make this trade, and that’s why I don’t think it’s as farfetched as some might.
Da'Jon McKnight - WR, Nick Toon - WR, Marvin McNutt - WR, Dan Persa - QB, Russell Wilson - QB, Whitney Mercilus - DE, Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB, Jared Crick - 3/4 or 4/3 DE, Alshon Jeffery - WR, Michael Floyd - WR, Ryan Tannehill - QB
by NordicBillsfan on Jan 15, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
haha all right.
Yea I thought it was you couldn’t remember your sn. But did you see my last comment about your point that Wilson couldn’t play under center? I think an elite QB needs to be able to do that, and if we don’t think he can (because of height) I don’t think we should draft him. I’d rather have a physically gifted player who needs to learn the position more than wilson and sits for 3 years, but has the tools to be elite.
A move like this (Williams sign and trade) by Nix would be huge for the Bills. Both because they would instantly have the greatest DL in the NFL, allow this draft to build a great defense, and probably attract more bigger name FA here. plus the excitement it would create would be huge for the fan base.
But back to dancam, I don’t get why he can’t just stay under one name. I actually liked his QB posts, they were getting repetitive, but good conversation nonetheless. Usually its the same 10-20 people having conversation about these topics so I don’t get why he was being so defensive. We all love the Bills (maybe a little too much :), so I dont see his problem.
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I can understand the Center argument. It will be interesting to see where he ends up going this April.
Agreed on acquiring Williams. It would give a huge kickstart towards bringing this franchise back to prominence. In the perfect scenario, I think we’d get him in FA and allow us to use our first round pick on a corner, or LT, or wide receiver.
Da'Jon McKnight - WR, Nick Toon - WR, Marvin McNutt - WR, Dan Persa - QB, Russell Wilson - QB, Whitney Mercilus - DE, Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB, Jared Crick - 3/4 or 4/3 DE, Alshon Jeffery - WR, Michael Floyd - WR, Ryan Tannehill - QB
by NordicBillsfan on Jan 16, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
AGREED
But then again if we happen to go back to the 4-3 .. he maybe an awesome addition to the line .. on the flipside to the same coin .. he is 29!
RED HULK: Pos: OLB, Height: 6'4, Weight: 1,040 .. 0.5 ON THE 40 ... uummm looks like we found our NEW OLB BOYS!
Disregard .. He is 26 ..My Apologies ..
RED HULK: Pos: OLB, Height: 6'4, Weight: 1,040 .. 0.5 ON THE 40 ... uummm looks like we found our NEW OLB BOYS!
I’d rather just bid for him in FA, then give up a first round pick and be similarly forced to pay him an outrageous amount. The franchise tag is totally player friendly in this instance because it gives him almost $17m
Houston has very little leverage, as they can’t credibly keep at one year $17m, if they franchise a trade or a long-term deal are their only options. So they should be willing to take less. Plus the new team will have to convince a guy due $17m for the season whom they just gave up a high one for to sign a long-term contract (nightmare).
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Jan 15, 2012 11:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I kind of agree
Do you really think Houston’s going to let him hit the market for nothing? I’d be more apt to agree with Houston franchising him, then getting what they can.
If your thought plays out, and Buffalo can just bid on him, I’m all for that.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
He would have to sign the franchise tender before they could trade him right?
I think that adds a little more leverage to Williams since he would likely wait to find out who was the leading bidder before he signed his tender.
I wouldn’t have a problem giving up a first rounder for him since first round picks are a crap shoot anyways. I just think we would be in a bidding war even if he’s franchised.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
Yes, before they could trade him
But to keep him, they just have to tender him. Houston could tender him, then have time to trade him.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
This seems like the kind of big signing that Nix has alluded to not wanting to pull the trigger on, so I don’t think it will happen. Nor do I think it should, despite how good Williams-Williams-Dareus could be. I’d like to create a dominant front 3- or 4- through the draft, because I think it would hinder us to get him (as it would probably take more than 2013’s first rounder).
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
but Williams is dominant
and an amazing athlete. I get your point about the draft, but hes only 26. I see this kind of like the NBA, somewhat. Where teams will trade anything to get a superstar. I would give 2 firsts for him. To get a dominant defender like that is rare. There are probably less than 30 defensive players like him. He would be perfect for a hybrid defense, he can play 3-4 OLB, and anywhere on the Defensive line. How can you block Williams Williams and Dareus?
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It’s definitely enticing, I’m just afraid of what we have to give up. Is one dominant player worth the cost of two very good players? If he’s one of the last pieces of the puzzle, maybe…if we’re trying to build a contender to compete for years, I’m not as sure.
But it is enticing… :) Do you think there’s actually a chance of it happening?
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
To answer your first question, Yes.
I voted for a Drew Bledsoe type trade, but now I am thinking it would be better to make the trade ASAP. We give them our #10, and maybe more (if necessary), for a sign and trade type deal .I don’t know how it works in the NFL, not like the NBA, but somehow make a deal that Williams will sign long term with us.
We both agree there is not an elite front 7 player in the draft this year (maybe the combine will tell more), but at this point I don’t think the majority of people are convinced that there is 1 player (front 7) that will be elite for sure like Mario Williams. Look how big of an impact JPP is having on the Giants (and Justin Tuck), Ware for the Cowboys, Allen for the Vikings. To have 3 unblockable players (by 1 person) on a defensive line would be insane. Very good players can still be blocked 1 on 1, a lot of teams have very good OTs. To have 2 potential future HOF players on a DL is insane. And to have both of them for the next 5 years would do more than have 2 first round picks for the next five years who might be good, but are by no means a for sure thing. Dareus Williams and Williams are a sure thing.
Do I actually see it happening.. Idk. To be honest no way. We are talking about our Buffalo Bills haha.., but then again Terry Pegula happened (obviously not the results we want yet, but amazing and surprising nonetheless). Nix said they would spend to the cap, and go after big name FAs. So maybe. But I see V-Jax coming here more likely than Williams, but Williams would be the better choice IMO.
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Fundamentally, I disagree that giving up a first and another high pick is worth getting that player…
…but that line does look nice. And obviously, after my initial shock, I’m sure I’d settle into the idea that realize how awesome our defense has the potential of being.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Exactly
and our defense will be good. With draft picks it is all about potential, but we know Williams Williams and Dareus are great players, even elite. We can pick 2 players who may never become elite. I think it is a small risk, big reward. Especially because next year our 1st round pick will be practically a second :)
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Hey We took a risk with Merriman! Why not Williams?
RED HULK: Pos: OLB, Height: 6'4, Weight: 1,040 .. 0.5 ON THE 40 ... uummm looks like we found our NEW OLB BOYS!
WoW ..
The more I am reading this thread the more excited (PAUSE) I becaome as if it will officially happen. I guess it is just the glimmer of hope that I have left for our team to become a much more dominant defensive force ..especially against the run ..
RED HULK: Pos: OLB, Height: 6'4, Weight: 1,040 .. 0.5 ON THE 40 ... uummm looks like we found our NEW OLB BOYS!
Let's compare value
If Buffalo traded a 1st and a 3rd this year, and a 3rd next year, a possible haul could be:
Courtney Upshaw
Tommy Streeter
3rd round pick in 2013 – speculate who you’d like
Would you take Upshaw, Streeter, and a 3rd over Williams?
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Ron.... quit posting your crazy draft trade scenarios under Der Jaeger's name ;-)
I voted No, draft our own pass rushers simply because I don’t see Nix willing to give up the picks it would take to get Williams. He would be worth our #1 pick, but wouldn’t the Texans ask for more than #10 pick? Wouldn’t Day Snyder be willing to give them their #1 pick, especially if they miss out on RG3?
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
C'mon Man! keep the dream alive at least for a day! haha
I don’t see Dan Snyder not getting RG3, I can’’t see anyone outbidding him. But about what we should give for Williams, like I said above, I would give 2 firsts. He is an elite player. He is very athletic and very versatile. a Williams – Williams – Dareus defensive line is a sure thing, 2 first round picks are a much bigger risk.
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I just don't think Nix give up that much for anyone but Luck
It will be bad enough if they pass on a QB this draft. But, if Fitz goes down in flames again AND we don’t have a 1st round pick in 2013???? That might be the death of CHIX. As far as RG3 goes, it all depends on whether the Rams and/or Vikes want to dance. Hard to see the Browns passing on RG3 in favor of Colt McCoy. Danny boy may make a play for someone like Flynn from the Packers for his QB…hell, Yates looked good for a rookie too.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
You do bring up a good point with Fitz.
But who says we have to draft a QB in the first. Why not in the 2nd. Obviously less likely to be a franchise guy, but draft a guy with the physical tools to be great and coach him into playing the QB position. The idea of a 1st round pick is that they don’t need as much development. We have a good QB, we hav some time to develop a player. DynamicHero’s mock he just made would be great because we draft a QB with great physical tools and we can develop him into a great QB in 2-3 years to take over.
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My crazy idea....
The Chiefs traded Jared Allen for, effectively, a 1st and a pair of 3rds.
Step 1: Offer the Texans 2012 2nd and 3rd plus 2012 2nd and 3rd
Step 2: Contact teams in the back half of the draft. I might look at the Browns, a team needing a couple fo studs and extra picks due to the Julio Jones trade last year. Picks 4 and 10 could get Cleveland two cornerstones….or possibly tempt Indy to drop back from #1 overall. Buffalo could ship #10 and a 4th or 5th to Cleveland for #22 and a second and third.
Texans get two 2nd round picks and two 3rd round picks, likely in the top half of the draft
Cleveland gets #10 and a 4th round pick
Buffalo gets Williams, 22nd pick, better 2nd and 3rd round picks than the team would have had otherwise essentially for a 2013 2nd and 3rd. Trading back in 2013 could replenish those missing 2nd and 3rd rounders.
Of course, all of this presupposes that Buffalo replaces Nix with someone who possesses some degree of flexibility and creativity.
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
by Ron From NM on Jan 16, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
D'oh!
Step 1: Offer the Texans 2012 2nd and 3rd plus 2012 2013 2nd and 3rd
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
by Ron From NM on Jan 16, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
To be really creative....
Step 3: Trade #22 for a team in the top half of the second, say, Indy, who could be looking for an OT to protect their new QB. That would net #33 and a 2013 2nd round pick.
Buffalo gets Williams, #33, a better 3rd round pick than the team would have had otherwise essentially for a 2013 3rd. If the front office was really working it…..
Step 4: Trade #33 to a crappy team (Bucs? Cards?) for a 2013 1st rounder.
I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.
by Ron From NM on Jan 16, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
That would never happen
I can’t envision Nix ever trading draft picks or moving down in the draft. He’s too rigid to do that.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Not sure
how I’d feel about it. On one hand a Williams Wall plus Dareus would be excellent and really help the Stache out with turning around our atrocious defense. If we were to say resign Stevie, draft WR Jeffery or Floyd, and pull off this trade it would look great and also Nix will have accomplished what he said during his presser. He would have 2 good WRs, added a real pass rusher to improve the D, and we would finally know what we have in Fitz (who CHIX seem to have all their faith in).
If Fitz progresses with the 2 WR’s and the defense improves then all is great and nobody would miss the 2013 1st round pick. If Fitz struggles and we don’t have a chance to get a franchise QB in 2013 (with Barkley, L. Jones, and many other promising QB’s projected to come out) that would be horrible. It also hinder whatever chance we have at getting a good coach to come in (in the event that Gailey is fired because I don’t see how we would keep him after 3 losing seasons). A good HC isn’t going to want to come to a team without a franchise QB on the roster OR 1st round pick to get one and build around. I think it is unlikely they would draft a QB in round 1 this year even if they want to do this deal because I believe they really want to build around Fitz and are targeting a WR. So this deal I believe would really all depend on Nix/Gailey and their faith in Fitz.
"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes
The Bills are not the only team that would benefit by attempting to acquire Mario Williams.
I just don’t see the Bills FO getting into a bidding war.
.
When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.
by Buffalo for Eternity on Jan 16, 2012 4:27 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I certainly wouldn’t complain but I don’t see it happening.
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The poll is missing the answer.
The Bills would NEVER give out a close to 100 million contract with close to 40 guaranteed like what Peppers got to any player.
It would never happen period.
I would love to see Mario Williams a Bill, but if you think it would ever happen when Ralph was alive, you are doing some serious drugs. He would never let this team make that kind of financial commitment to one player. Three players? Maybe….One player?……HECKS NO!
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by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 16, 2012 8:21 AM EST reply actions
Ralph’s the one who wants to spend the money.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 16, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I don’t like the team giving up a first for him. He’s likely worth it, but then that means it’s even LESS likely this team finds its franchise QB in the next few years.
I have no problem with them spending lots of money on proven talent.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 16, 2012 9:44 AM EST reply actions
If you go with the second "yes" option, it's possible
To use Ron’s methodology:
Step 1: Be patient. This step is the hardest.
Step 2: Fill some holes with free agents. CB Aaron Ross, TE John Carlson, WR Robert Meachum, QB Brady Quinn, etc. Nobody earth shattering.
Step 3: Negotiate a lot with Rick Smith, the GM for the Texans. Haggle back and forth long enough to get the Bills through their first round pick. Get close to a deal, but add something in that Houston won’t part with, like Brooks Reed. Keep the negotiations at the precipice.
Step 4: Take the player whom we may not mention by name at #10.
Step 5: Call Smith and drop the last ridiculous demand (like wanting Brooks Reed). “Settle” for this deal:
- Buffalo gets DE Mario Williams
- Houston gets Buffalo’s 2nd in 2012, and Buffalo’s 1st and 3rd in 2013. It’s more than the Allen deal, but I’m OK with the value.
Step 6: Finish out the 2012 draft
3.) Tommy Streeter, WR Miami, Fla.
4.) Cameron Johnson, DE/OLB Virginia
4.) Malik Jackson, DE Tennessee
5.) De’Quan Menzie, CB Alabama
6.) Marcel Jones, OT Nebraska
6.) Mason Cloy, C Clemson
7.) Cody Johnson, FB Texas
Buffalo adds a starting DE, starting CB, starting TE, and starting WR through trade and free agency, and adds a legit back-up QB. They get their franchise QB of the future, a prototype deep receiver, two prospects to rush the QB, and depth in rounds 5-7 in the draft.
2013 draft would be kind of weak, but it’s worth it for Williams, IMO.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 16, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Love that scenerio
I do have some questions. like why even sign Brady Quinn? Thay paid like 15 million for Thigpen, plus Fitzy doesnt like to sit even if he is hurt. Why sign another qb when they are drafting Tannenhill (sorry, i said it.) Also, as the draft gets closer do you still think there will be only 2 teams that take a qb ahead of the Bills? Are you sure he gets there? How would your scenerio play out if QB wasnt available at ten? take best prospect or top WR still available? If QB is gone and there isnt anyone at 10 we particulary want; wouldnt it make sense to trade this years #1 pick and keep #1 in 2013? Thats six questions…I have 14 left.
Quinn comes in as the 2-3 string QB to compete with Thigpen. It would create competition, and that’s the only reason.
I think Indy is going to take Luck, leaving Miami, Washington, and Cleveland looking for QB’s. The two clearly available are Matt Flynn and RGIII. That leaves one team with no chair when the music stops.
I wouldn’t take a WR; I’d do what you mentioned: if Buffalo gets to 10, and no one they like is available, just flop the years on the picks in the trade. Eg: 2012 1st and 3rd, with a 2013 2nd.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
It would be amazing
to get those FAs. but we are thinking that Mario would take Kelsay’s spot at 3-4 OLB, but mostly on the line of scrimmage in run support, right? I would take another OLB in the 1st then, maybe trade down (pick Bruce Irvin, Vinny Curry or someone like that) and get another 3rd (or other picks depending on value). Use that 3rd on another 3-4 DE. We would then have a stacked front 7.
I would then take a guy like Streeter with our second 3rd rounder. 4th on a CB, second 4th on an OT, 5th round take a developmental QB, with good physical tools, to develop for 2-3 years. and the rest a C, FS, and an ILB for depth. If we can get those FAs you mentioned it would be huge.
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If Buffalo got Williams, their front seven would still look fairly similar. They’d have a three-man interior rotation with Williams-Dareus-Edwards backed by Carrington and Troup. Williams would play the OLB position that Spencer Johnson played. That would keep Williams on the outside, in a 3-4 point stance, with 90% DE responsibilities.
Kelsay would man the other OLB, challenged by a healthy Merriman, Moats, Batten, and maybe Cam Johnson and Malik Jackson, if my scenario plays out.
Barnett and Sheppard man the middle.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
ok yea.
Pretty much what I was thinking instead I said Kelsay instead of Johnson. But I think we would still need a pass rusher on the other side, maybe more of a speed rusher. I know that you want Tannehill, but getting a guy like Irvin with Williams on the other side would me this one of the best front 7s in the NFL.
A question about taking a QB. Are you against taking a later round prospect to develop? I think if we can draft a player similar to TJ Yates last year, he can sit behind Fitz and become the starter in 2-3 years. He who must not be named is very physically gifted, and stats say 1st round QBs have a higher chance of being elite, but if my scenario plays out we have a great defense, and combined with what you said good offensive weapons. Maybe we take a QB in the second next year?
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Good pass rushers can be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft every year. Houston has two 2nd round guys in Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin. Osi Umenyiora is a 2nd round pick, and Justin Tuck is a third rounder.
Most teams that get enough good pass rushers to build great defenses (Houston, NY Giants) add significant pieces in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If Buffalo played out my scenario, they’d have a nice competition at on edge spot in Kelsay, Merriman, Moats, Batten, Johnson, and Jackson. If that didn’t work out, they’d still retain their 2nd in 2013 to get another pass rusher.
I haven’t mentioned Bruce Irvin at all, not because I don’t like him, but because he falls squarely into one of the spots that Buffalo doesn’t have a pick. For me, he’s a 25-35 overall pick guy, and Buffalo won’t get him where they pick in round 2.
I like Mike Glennon from NC State a lot. I’m all for developmental QB’s, knowing that of 86 QB’s taken from 2000-2008 in rounds 4-7, only 7-8 panned out. But, taking a developmental QB, like TJ Yates or Matt Flynn, over someone higher, requires the team to already possess a franchise QB, like Schaub or Rodgers.
I don’t think Fitzpatrick is a franchise QB. Therefore, drafting a long-term developmental QB like Glennon isn’t something I’m interested in. The odds of Glennon, or anyone else, developing out of the 4-7 round range is less than 10%.
Fans just see the Romo’s, Brady’s, and Warner’s of the world, and think that any QB their team selects is destined for greatness. History says that doesn’t happen often.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
yea that stats really show it.
As you said Pass rushers can be found later and QBs can’t, pretty much. The only reason i mentioned Irvin because I knew he was a late first early 2nd prospect, and in my original hypothetical scenario we would trade down from 10 to get another pick, (which we would use on a 3-4 end). Pretty much the Bills need to pick their franchise QB and develop him behind Fitz., asap. Whether it is Tannehill, Foles, Harnish, etc. But for now I am going to dream about Mario Williams playing for the Bills :)
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Shaub
I dont see him as a franchise passer….he is good but i wouldnt put him in that class at all. I just wanted to get that out. He has one of the best WR to be in the game, and that WR hasnt had any record shattering years.
I had to think about it, but id almost compare him to a Drew Bledsoe type of guy. Doesnt hurt, doesnt help….he is just there.
I think he is a franchise guy
He has a great defense, a great running game, and a great WR, that certainly helps. But he is a great passer nonetheless. I think they could win the Super Bowl next year when they get him back.
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I disagree
He was the 9th rated passer in 2010. Andre Johnson had the 6th most receptions. Schaub was 6ht this year, playing part of the season without Johnson. Houston was 7-3 when Schaub went out. And Johnson only played four of those first ten games with Schaub.
Schaub also plays in Gary Kubiak’s zone-read run offense, a variation of the west coast offense. Schuab is taking big shots with Johnson, but with everyone else, he’s throwing relatively short.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Understood the Offense calls for small shots but
Matt Cassell was above him one spot in 2010 and JP Losman was one of the top passers in 2006( #11) so that isnt really a factor that should be used to judge a Franchise guy….I just think if you plug in a better QB there that offense is unstoppable. I think QB is the least talented position on that Offense. I know this thread isnt about Shaub being a franchise caller; but If Houston could upgrade by taking Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Rivers, or Big Ben…would they? Would any of those teams take Shaub as an upgrade? I think he is good, and serviceable….but a step down from the elite franchise tag. I think the term Franchise gets thrown out too often…i put that tag on a guy simply if the team wouldnt get rid of him for someone better. Thats why Fitzy isnt a franchise qb…there are upgradeable options available. Same with Shaub
Cap space issue
I could see the value of the Bills following that scenario to acquire M. Williams, but wouldn’t other teams enter the bidding and up the ante? The other problem of course is the huge expense of the contract needed to sign him. The Bills could afford it, but it would leave them without much additional cap space to use for other FA’s they might want (including the guys currently on the roster they would like to re-sign). I suspect the cap space would be the deal-breaker for the current Bills management..
I think it would start a bidding war. Buffalo may not win in that case.
I’m going to take Nix at face value, until proven otherwise. If he says the Bills are spending to the cap, then I’ll believe for now. The team is well positioned to make this type of move, as signing Williams would only take up roughly about half the money the team currently has available.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I would hire you as GM just to make this happen
It’s feasible and makes a ton of sense all around. Too bad our GM would never contemplate making moves like that…
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
You got any pull?
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I don’t think we’d trade for him. I think if he goes to FA we would show interest, but I don’t know if we’d pay enough to get him. Though there are most likely only 5 or so teams that can afford to pay Williams (including us). I tried to look for salary cap space numbers, but all I could find were the 2011 ones before the season.
Think Julius Peppers, NOT Jared Allen
What do people think the pick is getting you? Its not a player under contract, its a guy set to make $17m on a one year deal. Normally you use picks to get the rights to players for years and/or some leverage over the renegotiation. This does neither. The only thing keeping him somewhere is a mega-contract. It’s like we are tripping over ourselves to give away a pick too.
With Jared Allen, he was set to make like $7-8m on his franchise tag. So he was perfectly willing to entertain a long term deal and Minnesota new that. He more than tripled his guaranteed earnings. It won’t be so easy when faced with how much to guarantee Williams.
I think we are more likely to get him if he’s not franchised and it doesn’t involve a pick. Just seems odd to use a pick to basically get a free agent who isnt necessarily motivated to extend give the size of his one year salary. Especially a top ten pick.
I have low expectations. But high hopes.
by greysquirrel on Jan 16, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree completely.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 16, 2012 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
+2
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 16, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
if they are even remotely considering going after mario williams
i would strongly steer them toward pursuing cliff avril of the lions…
he is a UFA
lions are in cap hell with calvin johnson’s contract coming up (read all the espn stories about them)
they already have vanden bosch, suh and fairley in the line and cant afford to pay another big time player
avril is a 3rd round pick unlike williams so he would come cheaper
avril is 2 years younger than williams, still only 26
avril is 6’3 265 lbs with a 4.51s 40 time… he is a freakish athlete who has figure out how to play
based on his size, he fits nix’s mold and he can be an OLB as well
williams is 6’6 285 lbs, so he doesnt nix’s mold, not that it matters
while, every other team is competing for williams, if bills show avril he is their priority, that might make him motivated to come here
there are so many reasons that i would go for avril
forgot to mention
his 1st year – 5 sacks
2nd – 5.5
3rd – 8.5
this year – 11.0 sacks, 1 INT return TD, 6 FF
by statcruncher on Jan 16, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
also
highly unlikely that they will franchise tag him because of their cap hell
by statcruncher on Jan 16, 2012 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
and correction
he would come WAY cheaper compared to mario williams
by statcruncher on Jan 16, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
But...
You get what you pay for.
Cliff Avril would be a nice boost and should help our awful pass rush. He’s been consistently good.
Mario Williams is a rare physical freak who instantly changes the whole outlook of the defensive line and becomes an immediate problem for opposing offensive lines.
There is a reason Cliff Avril will cost you ~$6-8 mil while Mario Williams is going to run you ~$12+ mil.
Mind you, I would be happy with Avril but given the choice between signing Avril for less money or Williams for a lot more, I’ll take Mario Williams any day of the week and 10 times on Sunday.
by SabreNation on Jan 16, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
i dont agree one bit
avril will cost less not because he has less talent but because this is his first big contract… by that logic jared allen is less talented than mario williams even though he had 22 sacks this year….
and avril is a pretty freakish athlete too
by statcruncher on Jan 16, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Avril absolutely costs less because he has lass talent. Avril is a talented defender, but hes not in the same class as Williams. Williams is an elite talent in this league. Avril is a quality starter and potential difference maker, but hes just nowhere near Williams’ talent level. That said, I would love to see Avril on this team if thats the direction the front office wants to go.
I don't agree
I think Avril is a great player. But between Avril and Williams, there’s no contest. Williams can do everything Avril can do, but better, and he’s taller and about 50 pounds bigger.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
my bad
he is 1 year younger… avril is just 25
by statcruncher on Jan 16, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
I really like this concept but I’m pretty sure this is way too sexy a move for Nix. He doesn’t strike me as the big splash type. He appears more conventional and has always stated building through draft and grabbing mid tier guys in free agency who fit scheme. I’m on board for going after him, after all, Nix talked about a big leap this year, maybe he actually is looking for big talent in FA to help insure that.
by eriesimmer on Jan 16, 2012 11:22 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Isn’t he only under contract for 1 more year? I wouldn’t do it unless a contract was set in place
Kenny Powers is back!
I’m assuming that if Nix went this route, he’d have contact with Williams/Williams’s agent to see if they would agree to negotiate long term before pulling the trigger.
Da'Jon McKnight - WR, Nick Toon - WR, Marvin McNutt - WR, Dan Persa - QB, Russell Wilson - QB, Whitney Mercilus - DE, Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB, Jared Crick - 3/4 or 4/3 DE, Alshon Jeffery - WR, Michael Floyd - WR, Ryan Tannehill - QB
by NordicBillsfan on Jan 16, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
This Would Be A Very Sexy Move...
Which is exactly why it will never happen. Too flashy, too risky. Even if CHIX were willing to take the risk (and I don’t think they would be), Ralph would veto it in a heartbeat. Investing 10s of millions plus a pair of 1st round picks in a single player coming off an injury is not something Ralph would ever, ever allow to happen. It’s also a risk in that you’re getting a guy who is on a one year deal. Who is to say he would sign an extension with us? This is why Buffalo jumped out of the McNabb sweepstakes (which in hindsight was a good thing…)
The Bills would have a much, much better chance of getting their hands on Williams is he made it into free agency and even then their chances are extremely low. Williams is going to get a MASSIVE deal wherever he goes which means he will by looking to find a winner. Buffalo doesn’t exactly jump off the page in that regard.
I’d love to see Williams-Williams-Dareus-???? in a 3-4 but I don’t see any possible way it happens.
Barwin, Reed and Watt (Sigh)
I don’t want to disrupt the thread but I can’t help pointing out that the Bills could easily have drafted Barwin, Brooks Reed and J.J. Watt if they had wanted to — especially if they had been willing to trade down those years and gain more picks. Marcel Dareus is great, but Watt and an added mid-second round pick in 2011 would have been even better. Economists talk about something called “opportunity cost,” which is the cost of giving up options which were available to you. When one thinks about these three guys on Houston’s defense it becomes clear that the opportunity cost of Buddy Nix’s refusal to move around on draft day is very high. If he had played his cards right we could have had J.J. Watt, Aaron Williams AND Brooks Reed on our defense this past year. Think about that.
idk Marcell might be a future HOF player.
I don’t think you can pass up on a player of his caliber, for two good players, but not potential HOF.
You are now Watching The Throne.
Yes, but Watt may be as well. That was an amazing rookie season that he had. He has size, talent, smarts, and a great work ethic (as some of us were pointing out before the draft). He was also more consistent than Dareus during the year. And he sure has a knack for making big plays in the playoffs. I would say that the two have equal chances of making the HOF at this point based on what we have seen from them in an NFL setting so far.
He also
has a better DC, Better system, and better talent around him. ESPECIALLY at the CB position….where that really makes a pass rush specialist go from decent to good.
This past draft had some incredible talent
That really panned out in the NFL, I mean Dareus, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Von Miller, Brooks Reed, Nick Fairley, Ryan Kerrigan, Prince Aukonomra, Pat Peterson, Adrian Clayborn. I believe all of these guys are starting, and this is just defense, and im sure ive missed a few. But looking back on this years draft….yes he should have done that. However does that mean this draft will be loaded too? I dont think there is nearly as much talent last year as there was this year.
Trading Draft Picks...
If Mario Williams were SOMEHOW able to get himself back into the NFL draft this year, where would he be drafted? Top 5? Maybe Top 3?
If he were available to the Bills at the 10th overall pick – would you RUN up to the commish with him as your draft pick? If you are saying no then I am calling you a liar OR you just don’t watch football and know the type of talent that kid is.
If the answer is YES, then he is worth trading the 10th overall pick for because that’s basically what you are doing.
I am a strick believer in sticking with the 3-4 but if we could trade our 10th pick for Mario Williams & sign him to a long term deal then I’d quickly move back to the 4-3 and start focusing on fixing our secondary. I really believe that Super Mario, Meatball and Dareus would make the Giants or Vikings DL look like cupcakes.
by BuffaloFanFromCT on Jan 16, 2012 12:59 PM EST reply actions
most dumbest?
I would recommend you not criticize a post, because it does have a chance at happening, albeit very small, it is still interesting to talk about.
You are now Watching The Throne.
also kinda of ironic that you bash other folks posts but can’t take the criticism on your own fanposts
by BuffaloFanFromCT on Jan 17, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
That was INCREDIBLY constructive. Thanks for adding positively to the discussion.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
I'd vote no
but Buddy Nix not even being interested wasn’t an answer
It seems like Uncle Jesse and Cooter have a plan. I wish Waylon Jennings was still around to be narrator.
I'd love to see Mario Williams in a Bills uniform
but…
Here’s my thoughts spaghetti
Nobody said building through the draft was going to be easy. Let’s be honest, Mario has maybe 6 good years left in him. We will get a good 13-15years from a franchise LT and one should be available to us at #10. Are we really thinking that we can compete enough to make it to a Superbowl and win it in the next 3-6 years? I don’t think so. Losing the opportunity to draft a franchise LT is a huge IMO
Differing to next year could have the benefit of sending a later round pick maybe? But then again maybe a franchise QB will be there for the taking and we would not have a pick to trade?
I am hoping that Houston decides to let him test free agency but I also realize that is foolish ignorance and that Houston will tag him in all likelihood. I would think that Houston would be way better off using that money more wisely at other positions of need but I can’t imagine them simply letting him walk.
If Williams would actually hit FA, I would hope that Nix would be the most active bidder, as Williams clearly would be the pass rushing savior we’ve all been praying for.
Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience
I would certainly hope so...
If you don’t think you can make a Super Bowl in the next 3 to 6 YEARS, then it’s time to just start from scratch again. At maximum, building a playoff contender should take about 3 years (hence why most coaches/GMs get 3 years before they’re fired) and turning that playoff team into a Super Bowl team should take 4-5 years max.
With the right moves, this team should easily make the playoffs (as a Wild Card at least) next season (and if they don’t, CHIX is gone) and ready to compete for a title by the following year. You had BETTER be competing for a title within 6 years. You’ve got 2-3 good years MAX on Fred Jackson, maybe 4 or 5 on Fitz since QBs play long. Kyle Williams is no spring chicken, George Wilson is getting up there, Nick Barnett has 3-4 solid years left at best. If you’re planning over 6 years out before being a contender you might as well cut all of those guys now because they’re going to be gone before you’re competing.
by SabreNation on Jan 17, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
With the right moves, this team should easily make the playoffs (as a Wild Card at least) next season (and if they don’t, CHIX is gone) and ready to compete for a title by the following year.
Maybe Gailey takes the fall if they don’t make the playoffs, but I doubt Buddy Nix would be out too.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
One other thing Houston, could tag him
and trade some other players to get out of cap jail. That being said I would love to see him a Bill, but don’t think it will happen.
"God all-MIGHTY! God all-MIGHTY! Why do we DO that?!! God all-MIGHTY!!!" "Just keep matriculatin' the ball down the field, boys."
"We're at the crossroads...there's no doubt about that. But you can get it done...you can get it done...what's more you've GOT to get it done." Lou Saban
my bet is someone like the jets sign him
they need a pass rush also.
he would love playing in ryan’s defense.
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