2012 NFL Draft: Buffalo Bills Must Shake No. 10 Stigma
The Buffalo Bills hold the No. 10 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, and they'll be fighting a trend of iffy picks at that slot in recent seasons when they make their selection in April. Of the last 10 players to be picked No. 10 overall, only two have made the Pro Bowl, and only one is considered one of the elite (or potentially elite) players in the league today.
After the jump, take a look at the list of former tenth overall picks. It's a fairly unimpressive lot, right?
2011: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars. Gabbert struggled mightily as a rookie starter, completing just a hair over half of his passes at a pitiful 5.4 yards per attempt, with a 12-to-11 TD-to-INT ratio. Jacksonville's offense was severely limited by Gabbert's presence, relying far too heavily on the remarkably-up-to-the-task Maurice Jones-Drew. Now, Gabbert will get his second offense in two years with Mike Mularkey taking over as the Jags' head coach.
2010: Tyson Alualu, DT, Jaguars. A cartilage issue in his knee has hampered Alualu's effectiveness through two pro seasons, even though he's played in every game. He's recorded 6.5 sacks in two seasons, but may not ever become an acceptable full-time starter if he can't get the knee issue squared away. If he does get healthy, however, he'll have a chance to play effectively for a long time.
2009: Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers. A lengthy holdout before his rookie season and erratic quarterback play plagued Crabtree's development in his first two seasons. With Jim Harbaugh running the show, however, Crabtree - like so many of his teammates - seems to be finding his stride. He set career highs with 72 receptions and 874 yards this season.
2008: Jerod Mayo, ILB, Patriots. Here, we have our first Pro Bowl player, as Mayo made it to Hawaii for the first time in 2010. Long viewed as one of the best young linebackers in the game, Mayo was rewarded with a seven-year, $50 million contract extension this past December. Mayo has also already been a first-team All-Pro selection, and will be a featured player in Bill Belichick's defense for the foreseeable future.
2007: Amobi Okoye, DT, Texans. Drafted at the ripe old age of 19, Okoye couldn't fulfill the promise of a solid rookie season (5.5 sacks) in Houston, was released, and spent the 2011 season as a rotational reserve with the Chicago Bears. There, he recorded four sacks, and appears to have carved himself a role in Lovie Smith's defense.
2006: Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals. It's tough to fathom that Leinart once displaced future Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner from the starting lineup; he did. Warner took his reps back when Ken Whisenhunt arrived in Arizona, led them to a Super Bowl, and then after Warner retired, Leinart couldn't beat out Derek Anderson for a starting gig. Next season, Leinart will likely resume his role as Matt Schaub's understudy in Houston.
2005: Mike Williams, WR, Lions. The former USC star became the poster child for Matt Millen's futility in Detroit when, after sitting out a year of football due to ineligibility, Williams was made the No. 10 overall pick. He recorded 44 receptions in his first three years as he bounced between Detroit, Oakland and Tennessee while struggling with weight issues. After two years out of football, he revived his career briefly with the Seattle Seahawks in 2010, turning 65 catches into a three-year contract extension, but crashed back to earth in 2011 (18 catches).
2004: Dunta Robinson, CB, Texans. One of the more athletic corners in the league throughout his eight-year career, Robinson spent six seasons in Houston, where he was generally avoided by opponents after a six-pick rookie season. He then signed a six-year, $57 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons, where he has started for the past two seasons. Robinson is a very good corner, but not widely considered one of the best at his position.
2003: Terrell Suggs, DE, Ravens. Finally, we have a true star. Suggs is a five-time Pro Bowl selection, a one-time first-team All-Pro selection, and has 82.5 career sacks. Still just 29 years old, Suggs has rebounded from a slight lull in 2009 (4.5 sacks) with 25 sacks over the past two seasons, as well as five sacks in two post-season games in 2010. He is, simply put, one of the most feared pass rushers - and best defenders - in the NFL.
2002: Levi Jones, OT, Bengals. Jones preceded Suggs as a No. 10 overall pick from Arizona State, and spent eight seasons in the league (seven with Cincinnati, one with the Washington Redskins) as a starting-caliber left tackle, where he made 97 starts. Leg issues that plagued him throughout his entire career eventually forced him out of pro football after the 2009 season; he was replaced by 2010 No. 4 overall pick Trent Williams in Washington.
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Yah its interesting how certain picks seem to produce more busts than others.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Jan 17, 2012 11:07 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I call that random chance.
There’s a certain rate of success at every spot, and then there’s also the ability of a team to select players.
Said another way, you wouldn’t want to trade from pick #10 to pick #12 because the #12 pick has been better historically.
I realize it is random chance and all the rest of that stuff. It still does not make it not interesting.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Jan 17, 2012 12:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It all comes down to what player falls to this spot and what needs the team drafting at this spot has and their mentality. If they draft a guy who might be more of athletic specimen and more of a project then the odds of them producing are lower than a steady solid, yet less flashy pick (see Levi Jones). Drafting a WR leaves a lot more room to be a bust than an OT, IMO. Also its a little early to call Gabbert and Tyson Alualu a bust.
I did not call anyone a bust. It was just a point about certain picks ib the first round have a much higher percentage of busts picked than another pick. Like 9 vs 10. It actually happens. I read an article on some of the picks they tend to put them up around draft time on nfl.com.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Jan 17, 2012 11:23 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I dont think he was insuating you were. I agree with you on that it is an interesting exercise to look for patterns. Makes ya wonder if certain picks are harder to make than others. Like somebody else said in this thread, ’do teams tend to outhink themselves on certain draft positions more so than others?
"Opportunity is missed by most people because it comes dressed in overalls and looks like work." Thomas Edison
by HurricaneJay on Jan 18, 2012 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
Wonderful.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 17, 2012 11:21 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
If it's any consolation, #3 appeared 50/50 and we seemed to have come out ahead
2010 – Gerald McCoy
2009 – Tyson Jackson
2008 – Matt Ryan
2007 – Joe Thomas
2006 – Vince Young
2005 – Braylon Edwards
2004 – Larry Fitzgerald
2003 – Andre Johnson
2002 – Joey Harrington
2001 – Gerard Warren
2000 – Chris Samuels
As of 1/17/2012
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by NordicBillsfan on Jan 17, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Were the bolded ones successes? You don’t consider Braylon Edwards a success?
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Yes and no.
Personally, I never was impressed with Edwards outside of one monster season (2007).
And to be fair for success/failure, it’s too early in my opinion to list McCoy either way so he could be taken off this list for now.
As of 1/17/2012
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by NordicBillsfan on Jan 17, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I agree with McCoy, it’s too soon to call it one way or another.
I also suppose you’re right about Edwards, his 2007 season really paints a rosy picture of his career. How in the world did Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards play so well that year?
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Throw the ball deep and hope the deep threat comes down with it.
Kind of Losman/Evans like in my opinion (what I imagined I’d see this year with Flacco/Evans).
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by NordicBillsfan on Jan 17, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I forgot that Braylon Edwards was picked that high to begin with.
I wouldn’t consider him a succesful #3 pick. He was on his third team and cut mid-season, that says enough for me.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
Teach reach for needs in this area
Seems like in this region teams often outthink themselves. The Bills are prime examples. Whitner, Maybin and McKelvin come to mind quickly. Long term, teams are better off going with BPA and figuring out how to fit them.
case n point
cj spiller
In case your wondering....it says F*** boston
by BLO 2 VT 2 TPA on Jan 17, 2012 1:16 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Gabbert was rated highly by scouts, but I never understood why. He never seemed impressive in college, so what made them think he would be so much better in the pros? He was part of the mad quarterback scramble that saw second-round talent get taken in the first round.
As for the Bills, my guess right now would be a cornerback — either Claiborne or Kirkpatrick, depending on which one is still available. I don’t think there will be a QB Nix likes enough by the time they are on the clock, nor will there be a great WR like Blackmon. It might be a DE or OLB, although there don’t seem to be any pass rushers who really stand out this year. If Bell isn’t re-signed, there are several good options at offensive tackle.
Of course, free agency, the Senior Bowl, and the combine will likely shake everything up.
by SiriusRed on Jan 17, 2012 11:37 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I have confidence in Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley.
Our 2012 First Round Draft pick will not be a bust.
"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34
by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Jan 17, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions
Upshaw
I like Upshaw a lot. If he was there at 10 I would be really excited to see his name called. For some reason, though, I think that they will take the WR Jeffrey from South Carolina. He’s the type of WR that is open even when he is covered, and would compliment Stevie (or any other decent WR) nicely.
Hopefully the Bills can make some solid signings in FA and be somewhat flexible with the pick at 10.
GET TO THE CHOPPA!!!
Linebacker the only safe bet!
Given Buffalo’s need at linebacker, particularly outside, the Bills top priority bearing we re-sign Stevie is acquiring a pass rusher. Suggs and Mayo, the only two consistently doing well were drafted for 3-4 linebackers. Right now, there are no true top 10 3-4 OLB; however with the combines coming soon, players like Courtney Upshaw and Whitney Merculis have potential to see their stock rise.
Donte Whitner was a safe bet, too.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 17, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
It makes me think our defense is sounding really Roman (Dareus, Mercilus).
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by NordicBillsfan on Jan 17, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
And that makes me think of the kid from Bad Santa
Thurman Murman.
I hate that I love Buffalo.
by bflo on Jan 17, 2012 2:14 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
It almost seems like its based on position
especially when you look at Nordic’s comment above about the #3 position. It looks like LB is a good grab at #10….and WR is a good grab at #3? Maybe this has a lot to do with how much that position is paid, and how teams draft in order of importance. Like QB’s tend to go 1st, then the best OT or Defensive player in general; then the second best offense player, usually a WR…then the best OT, etc etc. So when you get to #10 and are picking a DT or a WR or a QB, you arent taking the best talent at that position. However, most of the time LB falls due to importance of other positions, so when you take LB at #10 it is more likely he is going to be the top player at his position. Just a guess, but i wanted to share the thoughts in my head.
Seems obvious to me..
we gotta draft LB or CB.
"What it takes to win is simple, it's not easy."
-Marv Levy
Look at the players the Bills have drafted #13 or higher since 2002
Average position #8. Your list of #10’s looks much better.
2002 – #4 Mike Williams – Bust
2004 – #13 Lee Evans – Solid deep threat
2006 – #8 Donte Whitner – Starter but not first round caliber.
2007 – #12 Marshawn Lynch – Talented, but had character and motivational issues.
2008 – #11 Leodis McKelvin – Bust
2009 – #11 Aaron Maybin – Bust
2010 – #9 C. J. Spiller – Shown flashes of talent.
2011 – #3 Marcell Dareus – Very good rookie year.
I wouldnt consider Mckelvin a bust
I would consider him closer to Donte; in reality we drafted six players which started at least two seasons for us; and two busts. that isnt that horrible….now it would of been nice if some of those plyaers were all star caliber, i think thats the real issue. While those six starters we drafted are good; only Spiller and Dareus have the ability to be superstars…Lynch might still be too i guess with Seatlle, especially if he continues to play the way he did to end the season.
There were a lot of bad decisions there. Most scouts said that Williams lacked athleticism and should stay at RT, yet the Bills planned to make him an LT from the start. (Epic fail.) Whitner was a reach when, for whatever reason, they fell in love with him and didn’t think he would be available in the 20s (where they picked up John McCargo by trading up). They should have selected Haloti Ngata and traded up to select Whitner. (Epic fail.) Maybin was a starter for less than a year in college, and he was way too small to be a 4-3 DE, the position for which the Bills drafted him to play. (Epic fail.)
Evans was good, but he proved to be nothing more than a speed receiver. He was not a great route runner (like Stevie), so he couldn’t beat double coverage. McKelvin seems to get good position, but just doesn’t seem to make the plays. That might still be something correctable, and he is a good kick returner when given the opportunity. (Why were they using Brad Smith all year on kickoffs???) Spiller showed solid improvement this year, and Dareus was solid.
by SiriusRed on Jan 17, 2012 12:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Since we are living in retrospect
imagine if they drafted Ngata then traded back into the first and took Tamba Hali.
Whitner wasn’t a terrible pick, but the consensus at the time was that he was a considerable reach. I would have been okay with him if he had been the #26 pick instead of #8. He was a good starter, but certainly not an impact player.
Hali went at #20, so he was gone by the time the Bills traded back in. But, the next six picks after McCargo were DeAngelo Williams, Marcedes Lewis, Nick Mangold, Joseph Addai, Kelly Jennings, and Mathias Kiwanuka. That closed out the first round. Looking into the early part of the second round, Roman Harper was taken at #43, and he has made it to the Pro Bowl as a strong safety.
by SiriusRed on Jan 17, 2012 1:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was just stating a dream scenerio since we are living in the past anyway here
You could also laugh at a good team like the Pats who took Lawrence Baloney over MJD…you know everyone says how awesome they draft. They also took Ben Tate over Mike Wallace for their deep threat, like a pick or two before him if I recall. What im saying is we tend to be critical of these errors as we should, but we rarely take into account that all teams do it and just as bad. Its not a drafting issue…how many of Bills draft picks are starting in the playoffs now? it comes down to signing these guys after their rookie deal is up, ala Stevie or Freddie; but it seems Nix has convinced Ralphy to open up his purse a little more, i see this in the Fitzy and Kelsey signing, plus the money they gave Florence and Brad Smith. Basically, you will find talent in the draft if you look hard enough, the Bills biggest issue is signing the talent when they do find it and having the players stick around….so is it really a point of concern to look at who we didnt draft if we dont resign those guys anyway?
by NHBillzFan on Jan 17, 2012 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
picking on the 2006 draft
17 of the 32 first round picks in the 2006 draft have reached the Pro Bowl. The Bills had two first round picks that year, Donte Whitner and John McCargo. Fail and failer.
by SiriusRed on Jan 17, 2012 12:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Most of the players on that list are solid starters
Judging Gabbert this soon is jumping the gun. Alualu played well when healthy. I ersonally don’t place blame on a team when they take a player who plays well, and begins to justify the pick, but gets hurt.
Okoye, Leinart, and Williams are the busts, and that’s a pretty decent percentage over the time frame.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I ersonally don’t place blame on a team when they take a player who plays well, and begins to justify the pick, but gets hurt.
Only if that player had an injury history going into the draft. IMO.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
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True
If McGahee never played, or didn’t play much, it was all the Bills fault.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I'd say our last draft was pretty damn awesome
Just about every player in the past draft has had some solid plays, especially Rodgers returning kicks, Searcy steppin up (little lost at times) same with Sheppard, Aaron Williams plays really hard, dareus obv shined without kyle in there next to him, and last hariston showed he can plug right in and play.
Hopin Troup (first draft) sticks around for next year, played EVERY game hurt… Those back injuries are scary. But I liked that in the offseason he put on a bunch of weight. In a lockout.
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by sketchydave on Jan 17, 2012 2:07 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Nix stuck to the south - southeast
Nix specialty has been knowing the talent in the south/southeast, last draft was nothing but players from the south and the year before 6 out of 9 were from the southern region. Not to mention 2 of the Bills stars an latter round picks Stevie Johnson (#7) & Kyle Williams (#5) are from the SEC… It’s about time the Bills started tapping into the talent pool of players from the south….
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I’m good with that.
No more Penn State guys.
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by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 17, 2012 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
I seriously doubt the success or failure of our draft pick at #10 will have anything to do with the past drafts
It is interesting to see what happened in the past to the players now in the league that were drafted at that spot and how they might have progressed/regressed in their careers. However, coaching/team needs/injuries/other talented players/plus several other litany of reasons has plenty more to do with whether or not a player drafted 10th (or any other drafted player) is successful or not.
Moreover, looking back should have NOTHING to do with who the Bills should take with that pick. If the right player is on the board they are targeting… you’ll see this regime of OBD of the Bills and their War Room “run” to the podium as they have done in the last two years and make the pick.
I think I’d be MOST SHOCKED if somehow this year we see them try to “wheel and deal” for better opportunities/picks/players with the pick.

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