2011 Buffalo Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick By The Numbers
by MattRichWarren on Jan 18, 2012 12:30 PM EST
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The Buffalo Bills had a 16-game starter at quarterback for the first time since 2006, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of only 14 NFL quarterbacks with that distinction. Statistics aren't the best way to analyze a quarterback's play, but they can provide an overview of how he compares with other signal callers.
The most glaring statistic on Fitzpatrick's 2011 resume was the interception total. His 23 interceptions led the league, and was the most by a Bills quarterback since Joe Ferguson's 25 in 1983. He threw a pick on four percent of his passes - a figure eclipsed only by Carson Palmer, Rex Grossman, and Christian Ponder.
But herein lies the complexity of statistical analysis. Many of Fitzpatrick's interceptions were thrown in the second half of blowout losses: four interceptions against New England in the season finale, two in a 37-10 drubbing by San Diego, two more in a 35-8 beatdown in Miami, two against the New York Jets in a game that was 27-3 in the fourth quarter, and three in a laugher against Dallas. That's 13 in just five games. While these games should not be excluded in the season evaluation, it shows he is willing to try and make things happen when the Bills are down. I shouldn't need to remind you of the Captain Checkdown era, but it seems appropriate to mention.
Fitzpatrick threw the ball 569 times. In doing so, he became just the second quarterback in team history with more than 508 passing attempts in one year. Drew Bledsoe's team record of 610 passes set in 2002 looks pretty safe for the time being. Only five quarterbacks threw more passes than Fitzpatrick in 2011, and four of them were Pro Bowlers. (Matthew Stafford, who led the league with 663 passes, was not selected - but would likely make the team if Eli Manning's Giants reach the Super Bowl.) That begins to explain the high interception number, too. Similarly, Fitzpatrick finished sixth in number of completions, with 353.
The Bills' passing attack wasn't just high-quantity - it also had some quality. Fitzpatrick completed 62 percent of his passes to put him ninth in the NFL, and passed for 3,832 yards to come in 11th. He fell just 12 yards short of second in team behind Jim Kelly's 3,844 passing yards in 1991. (First is Bledsoe's monster 4,359-yard 2002 season.)
Of all the stats discussed in this article, none paint a bigger picture of the Bills offense in 2011 than yards per attempt. The general rule is an average of 7.0 yards per attempt or higher puts pressure on a defense. 19 quarterbacks achieved that level in 2011 - including Kyle Orton, who was on two different teams. Fitzpatrick was not one of those 19. Standing No. 23 in the NFL, Fitzpatrick's 6.7 YPA puts him as the equal of Joe Flacco, and just ahead of Andy Dalton.
The Bills offense was built on the short passing game and quick passes to assist the offensive line in their block assignments. It worked, as Fitzpatrick was the least-sacked quarterback in the NFL. His yards per completion ranking was even lower, further proof that Buffalo's short passing game contributed to his high passing attempts and completion numbers.
In these basic statistics, there are certainly good signs. Fitzpatrick needs to continue working on his long ball accuracy, and the Bills will need to add a receiver that can stretch the field and make plays beyond the first down marker. With an upgrade in personnel at wide receiver and tackle, Chan Gailey can then attack further downfield. (That's probably not going to help those interception numbers, however.)
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Interceptions
I firmly believe that the best way to improve the interceptions is to VASTLY improve the defense.
Dave Wannsted
I’m all on your side here
by ONEREALMAN on Jan 18, 2012 5:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
WR talent of the 5 QB's who passed for more attempts
You didnt list them, but just going on the two you did list, Manning and Stafford, and one can only guess the other three were Brady, Brees and Rodgers. Of those five, look at the studs they have to throw the ball to…Brady has the least talented WR core I believe but not if you add the two TE’s in as targets. If you take a look, each of those teams has at least 3 options that are top tier recieving threats, while the Bills have 1 top tier threat and 1 good matchup…then what? Plus some of those teams go above and beyond those three top threats. If we throw this much we really really need to boos the talent of the WR core.
NYG -Nicks, Manningham, Cruz
GB – Jennings, Nelson, Finley
NO – Graham, Meachem, Colston
Det – CJ, Burleson, Pettigrew
NE Welker, Gronk, Hernandez
Buf Stevie, Nelson, Chandler??
by NHBillzFan on Jan 18, 2012 12:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
interestingly enough
the Giants are tied with teams like the Browns, Eagles, and the Bucs for the most dropped passes in the NFL, and are about to play in the NFC championship. So, it SEEMS that maybe defense is again, the better route to go, as frcorny suggests, because the more stout the defense, the more opportunities for the offense, and the less often we would be playing from behind, thus allowing balance.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
NHBillzFan
Don’t forget Freddie. He played a big role in the passing game before he was injured.
Fitzpatrick needs to continue working on his long ball accuracy
The guy is almost 30, if this was going to improve it would have by now. With his mediocre arm strength, he’s always going to limited to a game-manager type QB that relies on his teammates to cover up his limitations. This team is doomed to middle of the pack finishes, at best, until they upgrade at QB.
I agreed with everything up to here:
This team is doomed to middle of the pack finishes, at best, until they upgrade at QB.
I personally think that, just like BAL with Flacco, if we have enough good pieces around him, Fitzpatrick can get us at least TO the playoffs. And that is definitely not middle-of-the-pack.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 18, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Ravens nearly lost to the Texans, who fielded a 3rd-string QB. Clearly they need better play from the QB.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 18, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
MIGHT have had that better play at QB if not for Schaub being injured.
If they had the cap, the Texans would be an amazing spot for Manning to end up.
Don’t forget though, Yates had to win games to secure their division, and won a playoff game. Yates didn’t really play that badly… that game was very close, and if we were comparing QBs directly, Flacco is the first round selection who was a 4 year starter, and won more games in his first 48 games than any QB since 1950. SO- Flacco should have had a better game than Yates inherently… and really, both were pretty comparable. This game came down to better coaching, IMO. Yates had more attempts, but they were running FAR better, and really, Yates was 1 TD pass away from being just about as good as Flacco statistically.. and tying that game up.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Would never happen
Having finally won their division (The Texans) , I would find it impossible to believe that the Colts would trade Manning to them (or anyone else in that division) The Texans could offer Mario Williams nad a first rounder and the Colts would not trade Manning to them. It would resign them to no playoffs or wild card at best for the remainder of Mannings career.
It's close to Midnight, somethings lurking in the backfield. Under the Bright Lights he cuts so fast it almost stops your heart. You start to scream, but he's in the End Zone before you make it. You're Paralysed.
Cause it's CJ Spiller - all Frickin Night, and no-ones gonna save you from the Beast that just struck ya. You know it's CJ Spiller ! You're fighting for your life against the Spiller Thriller tonight !
no offense but
i never said trade. It is equally possible he is simply released, especially if there is still doubt about his neck, to save the 28 million dollar guarantee.
The Texans could offer Mario Williams nad a first rounder and the Colts would not trade Manning to them.
Oh yeah? This assumption/opinion is interesting to consider. What if it was next years first round selection, and the Colts were accepting not signing back Mathis? I think you might be too quick to dismiss this idea. Perhaps not.
Again: i also never said anything about it happening. I said:
If they had the cap, the Texans would be an amazing spot for Manning to end up.
The Colts might consider the move for the right price, especially if he only has 1-2 years left, because really, the Texans are just as likely to get there next year without Mario Williams, OR Peyton Manning, because they already got there this year without either of them.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I realise you never said trade
However I just don’t see the Colts releasing Manning outright and having no control over where he goes – it would be crazy when he’d obviously be able to command value in a trade.
I do get that you’re saying “if he’s released”, I just don’t believe that to be a realistic option.
It's close to Midnight, somethings lurking in the backfield. Under the Bright Lights he cuts so fast it almost stops your heart. You start to scream, but he's in the End Zone before you make it. You're Paralysed.
Cause it's CJ Spiller - all Frickin Night, and no-ones gonna save you from the Beast that just struck ya. You know it's CJ Spiller ! You're fighting for your life against the Spiller Thriller tonight !
isn’t it though so they don’t have to pay him all that cash money? how many teams would trade for Peyton given his injury history at this point and that massive contract?
He’s 36 years old and while one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game he’s coming off of major, major surgery while having what might be the largest contract in the league and the Colts have a shot at the best pro prospect since Peyton Manning himself.
The Colts could easily justify letting him walk
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 21, 2012 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
I cannot, and will not, get behind the idea that anyone is done learning anything at the age of 30. Barring any conclusive evidence, this just sounds like bitterness and defeatism to me. I’m 29, and if I’m already done learning, there’s a lot of things I should just give up on now…
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, he can still learn (long past 30), but his physical skills have likely already peaked. There’s a lot of research on this out there (what I’ve read is mostly on baseball players, but athletic skills are athletic skills I would think) that show that athletic ability peaks by age 30.
by tm on Jan 18, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Is that a hard-set number? I mean, in most medical reports like that, the numbers represent averages of data, meaning that if someone peaked at 17 and someone else peaked at 43, they’d average out to 30, you know? I know I don’t trust doctors anytime they say “you’ll never do _”, because I’ve had so many friends and relatives prove them wrong.
The other question would be, is it entirely a physical thing he needs to adjust? If it’s a mental application of a physical thing, how does that effect his ability to develop the skill past age of physical peaking? The application of finer touch could be rationalized as a mental aspect of the throwing process, you know?
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I’m sure they used a sample size larger than 2.
as far as your second point, I’d say it’s purely physical. He knows he has to be more accurate on deep balls, he’s not physically able to be though. All the practice in the world isn’t going to make his arm significantly stronger.
by tm on Jan 18, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Well duh they’d use a sample larger than two, and I’d bet there was even larger disparity between the greatest two differentials. But that doesn’t disprove my point about statistical unreliability.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
just google “athlete aging studies” and read up. there are plenty of them out there with similar conclusions.
by tm on Jan 18, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Its been scientiffically proven that you reach your physical peak around 25 if I remember correctly. Its why most black ops soldier units have a forced retirement at 27. You have hit your physical peak at that point and only go downhill from there. Yes you can keep learning but your unlikly to all of a sudden find yourself correcting throwing mechanics that you have embedded in yourself over a million times. He is not going to get better physically either.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Jan 18, 2012 1:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Also, I would have to ask what era these numbers were gathered in. Have there been data samples taken across multiple eras? The changes in lifestyle and medical practices for athletes have been drastically changing from decade to decade, so these numbers themselves could be changing, you know?
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Brett Favre had his most successful season at what, 39 or 40, right?
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 18, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Health care
These are guys who have better health care then members of Congress. Barring catastrophic injury a protected position like QB will have a much longer peak.
Harooo
take golf
I “learned” to play golf, but, I don’t have the talent to be “the best” at it. I could practice 24/7 and never approach Tiger Woods level of play. I can shoot 75-80, but, that’s my ceiling.
Fitz has a talent ceiling: A.) it’s not that high and, B.) he appears to have reached it.
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
by fansince60 on Jan 18, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Have you practiced 24/7 at it to prove this point, or is this an assumption you make? I mean, there’s a difference between not gettign better at a hobby you don’t rely, and not gettign better at the thing which put food on your table. Different stakes lead to different levels of commitment and different levels of reward…
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
no, that would be futile
my point is athlete’s have a certain innate talent level. Some college QBs go on to be Tom Brady, some go on to be used car salesmen. The car salesmen just don’t have the talent Brady has, no matter how hard they practice, study tape, etc. They get by in college but wash out or aren’t even drafted in the pros.
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
My mentor tells me this every time I think I’m not talented enough, or any time I think the opposite, that I’m so talented I shouldn’t have to blah blah blah. He says to me “talent is great and all, but what else you got?”
To me, talent means nothign in comparison to commitment, and ability isn’t the result of genetics or innate skills, but the result of experience and the reward for dedication. Tom Brady didn’t just start out amazing, he became amazing because of a fire in his belly that drove him to prove everyone wrong. Physically, skillset wise, he was bland and boring in the combine, and showed nothing of what he is today.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think anyone here doubts Fitz’s desire and work ethic. However, there are such things as physical limitations that training, studying, etc. cannot overcome. That is the ceiling of his talent.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Jan 18, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How can any of us be certain he’s hit his cieling? Or what the cieling is? It seems to be an arbitrarily defined thing, pulled out of the perspectives of viewers whose only experience with the man are less than an hour a week of watching him play for less than half the year. I just don’t understand how the case is already closed for so many people.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think the case is closed as much as we just don’t expect any improvement. I think the team can be marginally success with Fitz, and I think he’s a great guy to have in there for the next year or two. However, I definitely see where his arm strength and accuracy are liabilities.
I want him to work on his footwork so badly. That is one area he definitely can improve.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Jan 18, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’d say it’s debatable whether it can actually improve however much he works on it. I’d be willing to bet he works on it all the time already, but in game situations you fall back to what you’re used to.
Take Tebow. When he was coming out, there were all kinds of articles about how he was revamping his throwing motion and footwork, but when he’s under pressure on game day, he looks like the same QB he was in college. Whatever you think of him as a QB, no one really debates that he’s a hard worker. if two solid years of working on his footwork hasn’t helped him, maybe it’s not as easily correctable as we might think.
by tm on Jan 18, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Something’s potential for success being debatable is not reason enough for hopelessness or pessimism. Not to me, at least…
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
His resume and production to date would “seem to” point to mediocrity. If he were going to have a “break out” and disprove almost all pundits, I think he would have done so by now. I did not see any improvement from when he took over last year to the full season this year. His “ability” seemed unchanged.
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
by fansince60 on Jan 18, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In fairness, it was a lockout year, and so shouldn’t necessarily be compared to the improvements other QBs make in their first year as starter. This was basically a carryover of Fitz from last year, with all the training and reps you would get as a backup. If he’s not improving next year, with full camps and all that jazz, then yeah, start talking about lack of improvement.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Most QBs also don’t have three consecutive seasons where they start 8+ games and 36 career starts before they enter their first season as a starter. The only thing Fitz missed this offseason was a week of training camp and some OTA and mini camp stuff. It’d be a decent excuse for a rookie, but not for a player with Fitz’s experience.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
kudos on the 75-80
I’ve been playing for almost 10 years and sill have trouble breaking 90 consistently.
by tm on Jan 18, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
perfectly said...rec'd...
Fitz has a talent ceiling: A.) it’s not that high and, B.) he appears to have reached it.
This has got sig written all over it.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
my swing is better than ever
and i play a lot less and hurt more after.
been playing since i could walk.
and shoot in the lo 70s/hi 60s when playing well.
tom watson says his swing is better than
it was when he was #1 in the world.
it is his short game and length which
lags a bit.
just not true.
brady is better than ever, how old is he???
I cannot, and will not, get behind the idea that anyone is done learning anything at the age of 30.
I’m 29, and if I’m already done learning, there’s a lot of things I should just give up on now…
This is such a bizarre argument to me. Are you on the same clock as an NFL QB? Fitzpatrick will be out of the NFL when he’s 35 or 36… and that’s being generous. Are you going to be out of life in seven or eight years? It’s not the same timetable. Not even close.
In football years, Fitzpatrick is like 60 years old.
In football years, Fitzpatrick is like 60 years old.
Now this is a bizarre argument. Does your brain age faster in the NFL?
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
no, but you're body does, and the required athleticism certainly decreases as you get older
otherwise, kickers wouldn’t be the only 40 year old players (who aren’t exceptions) in the league.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well, yeah, there’s no argument there. But the idea that he’s done learning is what we’re arguing.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
well that argument seems futile
since as long as you are breathing, you are capable of learning. ESPECIALLY as a Harvard graduate.
SO, I assumed it was in reference to football knowledge, for which there is no time limit either. Otherwise 80 year-old men wouldn’t own teams, or run teams, or have coached for decades… or whatever.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 19, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
just a metaphor guys
good players get better. I don’t think Fitz is done learning or improving. I just hate that particular argument that I quoted above (and have seen a few other times). Pet peeve.
It’s so silly to me to hear that “Fitz can’t learn?? Well I’m _ years old and I’m not done learning yet!!!” and then apply that same metric to a football player.
Fitz’s life as a ball player is more behind him than it is in front of him. It’s like dog years. That’s all.
And why should we care about Fitz’s ability to keep learning football until he’s old and gray? He’s gonna get one or two more years for us as a full-time starter, and if he doesn’t have the wins by then, he’ll disappear when Gailey and/or Nix get the boot. Not what I want for the team, just what seems likely (if he doesn’t blow up in a big way).
Learning
I’m fifty and still learning but I learned long time ago youth and talent will beat out brains and age most days. Please don’t take this as being defensive on my part. Just trying to reason with folks. :)
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
He can definitely work on his footwork and improve his accuracy. Peyton Manning is improving stuff every year.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 18, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i agree
but the problem is…. he has had an issue with this, always. And he has never addressed it (at least not adequately, IMO) and so… until he does, we are dealing with “Bad Fitz” as just likely to show up as “Good Fitz”.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Having the time
to set his feet would go a long way. Getting the ball out asap to avoid sacks will do that to a guy.
Harooo
He generally starts from shotgun.
This should be a non-issue.
I kinda get your point, if it is that he is rarely stepping forward into his throws.
That being said, I personally see him trying to torque his shoulders and put more twist into his hips to propel the ball. He does a number of things to try and offset his less than stellar arm, but none of them would be as effective as improving his feet, or having a more straightforward delivery.
Plenty of QBs are successful without being able to throw the ball 20+ yards on a rope, but they do so by being accurate on delivering the balls/routes that they CAN throw. Fitzpatrick is capable of delivering the ball to the guy, but rarely to the ideal position (ahead of him for crossing patterns, over the shoulder/back shoulder for sidelines, at their eyes in the flat, in front of them deep…. etc..) I almost think that may factor equally into WR drops- the pure and simple fact is, that the weapon rarely can actually EXPECT the ball in a given spot, because they never know where it is going to end up. That means each an every play, they are making an adjustment to the ball, rather than just running their route (which Chan offers leeway as to how they get there, which impacts timing too, so Fitz’s job gains a small amount of difficulty for this fact as well) and basically, I guess I feel there are too many factors on simple routes like slants and curls, let alone timing out deep patterns. I mean, how many post patterns do we run/complete? How often do we strike deep? Why would a defense fear our offense, if all they have to do is stand and wait for the 5-7 yard route, and then either drill the receiver or knock the ball down, or simply pick it. This system seems like it is deisigned to help a young group of guys do SOMETHING… but that also keeps it simple for the opposing defense.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'll admit
As the only way i got to see games this year was through choppy internet feeds I missed a lot of the detail. What I did see a lot of was blocks of opposing color uniforms forcing passes in what was already a quick read offense. Once we lost the speed at WR all defense had to do was clog up the short throwing lanes which forced deeper throws with the same limited OL blocking.
Harooo
Once we lost the speed at WR all defense had to do was clog up the short throwing lanes which forced deeper throws with the same limited OL blocking.
I am not sure when we had speed at WR, in your opinion, but really, once teams realized Fitz couldn’t throw past 10 yards, this is what I saw too. So, was it recognition of his faults, or was it failure to call plays where we at least occasionally stretched the defense… i really don’t know. I sure do wonder where all the play pass was, because it seems like the end of last season (2 years ago) he really benefited from play action, and then this year, we ran so little, and spent so much time in spread, it was almost an afterthought, at best.
I personally watched all games 3 times. Some, were the 30 minute snap to whistle versions that sunday ticket offers (because of the blackouts) and the rest were watching the live game twice, and then the 30 minute versions after. I got more than my fair share of looks at some pretty awful plays. But, it also helped me learn a lot, and I started to see some of the things that others saw, that i might not have agreed with prior (including things that Chan was obviously doing just to test the opponent/disguise some of our weaknesses). Ultimately, I feel we are a below average team, that excelled early, and then had to succumb to our lack of talent and depth, when opponents figured us out.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Speed
you are correct, unfortunately we lost most anyone with any real semblance of speed before the season started. I don’t know any 40 times but speed really dropped off once Parrish went down. Pry the closest thing we had after that was when Spiller was playing WR. Speaking of play action… I thought I noticed it a lot more once Spiller took over. Chan was aware of how much attention C.J. drew just being on the field. He had mentioned it in one of the post game interviews. (It was a play where Spllier drew an extra guy going out into the flats and Nelson scored the winning TD.) Like I said i missed a lot of detail did you happen to notice any change?
Harooo
Good Point
Nixon. O/L help would go a long way maybe?
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
Peyton Manning's
best statistical season was his age 28 season. Peyton can learn all he wants to, but Peyton Manning circa 2004 is not walking through anyone’s door. The regression on that horse has already in full force.
The point as an organization should be whether Fitz can improve or will improve. It should be to figure out what the chances he regresses. That percentage I think based on historical data is higher than his chance for improvement which is why people are nervous about him being a starter longer than 2012.
Really????
Peyton Manning is improving stuff every year.
like what…..HIs neck mobility ??
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
Hey
Remember the 6 million dollar man? We can re-build him! :)
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
6 Million
With inflation may make it a bad option on second thought:)
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Time to rain on your parade a bit MWR.
While these games should not be excluded in the season evaluation, it shows he is willing to try and make things happen when the Bills are down
Some of the reason those games turned into blowouts……..were directly related to Fitzpatricks INT.
The first one he threw vs NE in the finale was with the Bills holding a slim lead. Then he compounded the problem by throwing 3 more.
One of his vs SD was on the Bills first possession. After the Chargers took their first possesion for a score.
His first INT of the miami turned a 11 point defecit into an 18 point defecit in the 2nd QTR.
The two in the Jets game you mentioned were in the first half when the game was still 3-0.
So I dont think the argument you presented here is very vaild.
I think anyone who watched the games knows that Fitz tends to get very careless with the ball at times……….and its not just when the team is down by a large defecit.
Thats a nice little story to tell ourselves, but it’s unfortunately a lie.
The score dictated they pass
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 18, 2012 12:50 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Exactly right, rec'd.
I also like how the end of the article mentions how Fitzpatrick has to get better at throwing the ball long, which he does, as this article points out:
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/36214/ryan-fitzpatrick-missing-the-deep-ball
BUT, the comment made is something to the effect of if Chan Gailey starts calling more long passing plays, that probably wouldn’t help Fitzpatrick’s interception total. Which is probably right…but begs the observation: How many interceptions would Fitzpatrick have if there wasn’t this focus on short passing? I would assume short passing = greater accuracy & less interceptions…if thats the case, then Fitzpatrick still leading the league in INTs is very telling.
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
by StroudFanClub on Jan 18, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not defending that he threw interceptions early in some games. I didn’t have the time to delve deep into it, but I would bet about a third of his interceptions came with the Bills down by two scores or more.
I think anyone who watched the games knows that Fitz tends to get very careless with the ball at times……….and its not just when the team is down by a large defecit.
But he is definitely throwing the ball more when the Bills have a large deficit. And a large portion of his interceptions were forced passes.
Use the Giants game for your argument. He had two costly, underthrown balls picked off. He puts those two on the money and Buffalo probably wins that game.
All I’m saying is that the number doesn’t tell the whole story. It’s not a lie.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 18, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Forgive me Matt, it was not my intention to call you a liar.
If it read that way I sincerly apologize.
All I meant was we can try to convince ourselves as fans that Fitz might not be as bad as he looks, but the reality is he’s more mediocre than average. It’s a shame, because he does show flashes of brillance. I think he overall he is always going to be a 6-8 win guy unfortunately. Good enough to beat the bad teams, but will struggle against teams who field statistically stronger defenses.
The score dictated they pass
by norcaliangelsfan on Jan 18, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Just remember, the Bills were down by two scores or more quite early quite often.
"Go check on the ribs!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 18, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
this
perhaps Fitz would be better if he isn’t pressing, that is certainly consistently correct for most successful QBs. Draw your own conclusions beyond this point… because I don’t need to “beat a dead horse” so to speak, I don’t suspect.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Dead Horse
No arguement here sir. Dead horses should never be beaten, just turned into Elmer’s glue:)
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
or jello?
;)
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
lol
Owners choice! :)
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
oh in that case
I get neither. Not a horse fan. Wouldn’t own one to begin with. Apparently I would be beating someone else’s dead horse.
As a sidenote: A horse killed Superman. So…. there’s that to consider too(it’s why I am not a fan… duh. ) hahaha
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
All it says is that Fitz isn't clutch
Why is it OK to throw more INTs just because the game is out of reach? Shouldn’t teams be playing more prevent making it easier to complete passes? Sorry Matt, this just seem like you are trying to put lipstick on a pig.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
Because he is pressing and throwing balls with a low probability of success. But when you are down you have to take those chances. Golf analogy time!
I am down by a shot to my brother facing a long iron shot over a water hazard. Do I lay up, meaning he can do the same and cruise to an easy victory or do I go for the green to see if I can get lucky? I don’t play to lose so I go for the green. Half the time it’s in the water and half the time it’s not. It’s not a shot I necessarily make early in the round but when I’m behind and need to make up a stroke, I try it.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
For those into advanced statistics, Football Outsiders is a great website.
Thought it would be relevant to share where Fitzpatrick ranked in their metrics for 2011:
Metric #1: DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement
What it measures: “This gives the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.”
Where Fitzpatrick ranked in 2011: 18th in NFL with 431 DYAR
Metric #2: DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
What it measures: “This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.”
Where Fitzpatrick ranked in 2011: 25th in NFL with 0% DVOA
Another neat analysis (although done by a Jets-based blog so take it with a grain of salt!) is this one that attempts to figure which QBs (in last 3 years) are the best “value”, or production/efficiency at lowest salary.
http://nyjetscap.com/2011_Efficiency/valueprice.php
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
Here is the link to Football Outsiders QB stats:
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
by StroudFanClub on Jan 18, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
probably the most obscure metric I’ve seen, but, yet again – all roads lead to Fitz being average or below average.
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
Does anyone have a count on the number of INTs that bounced off of someon'es hands or chest?
@sawyervanhorn
by Sawyer in Boston on Jan 18, 2012 1:07 PM EST reply actions
and by "someone" I mean a Buffalo receiver
@sawyervanhorn
by Sawyer in Boston on Jan 18, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
FO mentioned above ususally has that
ill go look…they usually also have dropped int’s by defenders, so if the defenders are actually making the plays on you, that makes s difference too. but when looking at passes that tipped of a reciever, you should also take into account if the pass was overthrown, and the reciever was able to get a hand on it trying to make a play, and tipped it to a defender. I was in the endzone tha last game against NE, and saw that one to Spiller that tipped off of his hands was all Fitzy’s fault.
There were definitely a few like the one you mention w/ CJ, but it seemed to me like an abnormally high amount of “good enough” throws were also turned into picks by the receivers this year. This is not a group with very good hands.
@sawyervanhorn
by Sawyer in Boston on Jan 18, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I have a hunch I know where you're going here...
so wouldn’t you also have to take into account the number of “almost INTs” that defenders dropped, or our receviers knocked away?
Here's hoping!
no — i don’t think a dropped pass by a defender who has only a split second to react in order to complete the pick is in the same category as a dropped pass by a receiver who knows its coming and is on the field for his hands….my thinking is simply that we had an abnormally high number of unlucky bounces this year, coupled with a receiving corps that has below average hands as a group.
@sawyervanhorn
by Sawyer in Boston on Jan 18, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but Fitz still has some problems
You have a good point, and some of those picks shouldn’t be on Fitz. However, the fact remains that he does have trouble with accuracy on deep (and some intermediate) throws. Those two INT’s against the Giants were dreadful and entirely his fault.
It goes back to the drill they run at training camp when the QB’s are supposed to throw deep fade passes into a trashcan in the back corner of the endzone. Fitz is always by far the worst at it. In fact, he is painfully awful. Even Levi Brown ran circles around Fitz in that drill when I watched them last year (at several different practices).
by Macktruck on Jan 18, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah I definitely agree — I would never call Fitz an accurate passer, and he certainly does not throw touch passes well. I don’t even expect that he can drastically improve his accuracy, but I also don’t expect his interception total next year to come close to this year’s. A few different factors — inaccuracy, playing from behind, sub-par hands of WRs and bad bounces — all came together to give him such a bad number in that category this year. An improved defense, less passing, and an upgrade at WR could fix two of those issues. I believe we can turn the ball over less and be successful with a QB like Fitzpatrick.
@sawyervanhorn
by Sawyer in Boston on Jan 18, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
INT's
According RW and Nix all our receivers are lacking anything past wrists.
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
The key
is for the team to be able to put Fitz in position to play his game.
His game is built around short passes, vertical timing and smart decisions.
That kind of an offense just doesn’t translate well to playing from behind, and is susceptible to an aggressive defense that is willing to take risks, jump routes and play more physically at the line. It does do well when the opposition is in prevent mode.
It’s that fact that helps us in the come from behind situations, which we saw in the Oakland and the first NE game. However it also requires a change in philosophy at those times where the Bills have the opportunity to seize the momentum and a pick can give the momentum to the opposing team. Too often in close games, Fitz would inexplicably throw one up…whether a tipped ball, a mistimed play, Fitz being rushed, or a defender being where the receiver was expected to be.
He’s got to be more careful in these pivotal moments of games and recognize what the defense is doing. At the same time, we still have to enable Fitz to dictate the game, and not have the game situation dictating to Fitz how he plays. This requires a defense that offers more resistance than a block of butter to a hot knife.
When the Bills are driving with a 10 point deficit in the middle of the 3rd quarter, Fitz shouldn’t be shouldered with the expectation that the current drive is do or die, and that he absolutely has to get a TD or the game will be over. Yet game in and game out, our defense has put him in that situation. This is also why we see so many games of “bad Fitz” where there are multiple interceptions, especially in the 2nd half. It’s easier to pick him when he’s not playing to his strengths.
by NoiseIsTheBestRevenge on Jan 18, 2012 1:08 PM EST reply actions
Stat's that matter:
14-23 as a starter for the Bills. Sure glad Buddy and Chan have full confidence in him….
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 18, 2012 1:15 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Marv Levy was 31-42 as an NFL head coach before coming to Buffalo. Sometimes it’s not all about one person. :-)
by MattRichWarren on Jan 18, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Marv Levy is the most overrated coach in Bills or maybe NFL history. Players matter – Jim Kelly mattered and if it wasn’t for him and Bruce Levy would have been nothing.
When you’re talking about QB it can be all about one person. Obviously the Colts come to mind. Fitz does not raise the level of play of those around him. He is careless with the ball, inaccurate and limited in what he can do offensively and as a result he loses a lot more than he wins.
Stats that matter
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 18, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fine, then what about BB’s losing record before lucking into Tom Brady? Does that make him nothing as well?
Let’s talk about teams instead of QBs. This last year proved that the colts, well, they just plain suck. But look at a real team, like the Steelers: they lose their QB, and still win 3/4 of their games. Puttign all your eggs in the QB basket is dumb, it only got Indy one SB win, and that was only in the year where they were able to assemble a closer-to-complete team, and only against a Bears team that had zero offensive ability.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Belichick had amazing success prior as defensive coordinator for the Giants winning 2 Super Bowls and credit for stopping the Bills K-gun. In 85 Belichick was defensive coordinator and won the SB in 86 and 90. He also turned the Browns defense into a good defense going #1 in the league in points in 94.
Levy had coached special teams in the NFL and nothing else. He had some success in the CFL but did absolutely nothing before or after Jim Kelly or Bruce Smith including completely failing as a role as GM for the Bills.
Puttign all your eggs in the QB basket is dumb
did I say anything about any other QB? I said Fitz is inaccurate, careless and limited at what he can do offensively ( the deep ball) and he loses more than he wins because of that.
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 18, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
You did, in referencing the colts qb situation specifically. Unless you were talking about the Colts’ Qb situation without implying anythign about any of their qbs…:-D
And Levy was also the best coach ever at my school (UNM), so he’ll get my vote any day.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
You did, in referencing the colts qb situation specifically.
yes but not in reference to “putting all your eggs in the QB basket is dumb” sentence (which is why I blockquoted it) because I never mentioned the idea to put all our eggs in one basket. I simply stated the things that make Fitzpatrick a losing QB in the NFL
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 18, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I guess it had more to do with your wording, of QB problems being “only one guy”, and using the Colts as example. That seems to imply using the Colts-Manning relationship as an example for what we should do as a team, and that’s what I was arguing against.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
of QB problems being "only one guy"
in fairness, only 1 QB is on the field at a time, and we really only have 1 QB on the roster who has shown he can be remotely capable here, and if J2 is a believer that Fitz isn’t good enough, then really, his view is entirely logical.
I don’t agree that QB is the ultimate answer, because I personally think our needs are plenty: as in, basically every single position can still use some help (OL- ALL positions because someone different started at every spot except RT, where Pears is going to be 30, LB, CB, WR, QB, TE), except DT, if we go 43, because we have like, 10 of them (all our 34 DEs/DTs are 43 DTs, and we have NO OLBs or DEs that truly fit the 43 scheme, IMO)
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Only one SB?!
Like you or I wouldn’t trade 4 SB losses for “only” one win?!!
by buffaloparks on Jan 18, 2012 2:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Honestly, I wouldn’t, but that’s because no other team has gotten to 4 in a row, ever. And also, because going more or winning less begs the question of overall team quality. The Colts just aren’t a good team. The Steelers are. This is why the Steelers win more consistently. Because they build a real team, not just a QB with some bums around him.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm
I’d take 1 win sb and three consecutive losses for $10.00 Alex! :)
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
by buffalobacker on Jan 18, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Me Too
Girls use hair spray, Men don't.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!
Don't be a Paully!
by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 19, 2012 7:30 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
Puttign all your eggs in the QB basket is dumb, it only got Indy one SB win
It takes at least several eggs to get a good or great defense, it only takes 1 good AAA egg to find 1 good QB.
Girls use hair spray, Men don't.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!
Don't be a Paully!
by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 19, 2012 7:29 AM EST up reply actions
Bruce Levy? Wasn’t he a martial arts movie star?
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
by fansince60 on Jan 18, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, he starred in Kosher Kung-Fu & The Jerusalem Kid
by PineWoodsBillsFan on Jan 18, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
wow what a statement lol
the most overrated coach in bills history
and the only bills coach in the hall of fame?
or did chuck knox get in?
lou saban is the only other great coach we had.
marv took them to 4 straight super bowls and he is
overrated?
i agree he got outcoached by the giants, but geez…
overrated???
kinda strange claim
I think you’re over-simplifying when you say the only stat that matters is his W-L. What was Peyton Manning’s record in his first year as a starter? Obviously, there is more to the story than W-L.
While a QB upgrade would be welcomed by me, I don’t see it happening this offseason. Fitz is going to get another year to prove he belongs.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
It’s a valid point that Fitzpatrick had many of his picks thrown in the 2nd half of blowout losses, but why was he the quarterback in the 2nd half of so many blowout losses to begin with? Fitzpatrick has many physical limitations that can be exploited by defenses. Again, early on Gailey did a fantastic job (can’t be overstated) of building an offense that was tailored around masking both Fitzpatrick’s lack of arm strength and an offensive line that was not built with pass protection as its best attribute. When defenses finally caught up by flooding the intermediate routes, Fitzpatrick was not talented enough to adjust and Gailey was not creative enough to counter with another masking technique. As it stands, Gailey and NIx are now married to Fitzpatrick for another year. If Gailey can’t come up with a new way to get the most out of his somewhat flawed QB, this offense will look more like it did post-Halloween in 2012. If that happens, the whole gang should face scrutiny, all three jobs should be examined for better alternatives.
"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix
by Port Royal on Jan 18, 2012 1:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed with much of this.
I really wonder if the decline in the offense the second half of the season was the result of defenses “catching on” to what the Bills were trying to do (short & quick passing game) and taking it away.
Would love to see an article that examined if this was the case…but not sure how you would go about proving that out. How do we know that we just didn’t surprise the first 8 teams we played with the short/quick passing game, and, now that defenses have adjusted, how do we know we won’t conitnue to get blown-out by teams like we did the second half of the season?
I mean, the New England game was an example of a team adapting to our offense and then rendering it useless in the course of just one game!
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
by StroudFanClub on Jan 18, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Payton Manning admits that they run the same plays every game. The difference is their execution is so good. Some of the picks Fitz threw the receiver was not in the right place or looking, that is poor execution.
The Jets in the second match up obviously did not “catch on” to the Bills offense and the short passes because they could not stop it.
Teams always try to adapt to what they can’t stop, that is execution and coaching.
Some of the picks Fitz threw the receiver was not in the right place or looking, that is poor execution.
And if a team jams a receiver at the line, and it takes them an extra second to get off the line and Fitz still throws to the spot on the field the receiver is supposed to be because he doesn’t realize his receiver has been jammed, is that on the WR or Fitz?
Because it happened to Joe Montana all the time back in the 80’s, but he was so accurate and smart he would hold that ball that extra time it took his receiver to get to the spot and still make the throw unlike Fitz.
Girls use hair spray, Men don't.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!
Don't be a Paully!
by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 19, 2012 7:42 AM EST up reply actions
Buffalo's defense determines which Fitz we will see.
When Buffalo’s defense played well(which didn’t happen a lot) Fitz could play his game. When the defense was getting owned during the losing streak, he had to be Tom Brady, which is something he can’t do. Blame for the 23 INTs fall to 3 areas: Fitz himself, the fact he had to get into a shootout if Buffalo wanted to win, and by the end of the year his #2 WR was Derrick Hagan.
You can't handle the truth
The truth is that Fitzpatrick is the best QB the Bills have had since Bledsoe and Flutie. This offense was scoring touchdowns this year! This team had a running game. This team did not lead the league is sacks taken this year. This team was exciting and watchable this year. Plenty of room for improvement but to start over would be moving backwards.
Want to get rid of Fitzpatrick? Tell me what your plan is. Peyton Manning? That would be nice. Who do you want and how do we get him?
Flutie > Fitzpatrick > Bledsoe. However, saying that Fitzpatrick is one of the best QBs we’ve had in the past 15 isn’t saying much. We’ve had several mediocre to downright awful QBs in that time. JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Rob Johnson, Brian Brohm, Kelly Holcomb… BLECH!!!
by SiriusRed on Jan 18, 2012 2:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bledsoe has the best season a Bills QB ever had. I wouldn’t put Fitzpatrick ahead of him.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I have a plan, draft a QB!
Kenny Powers is back!
by atlantalove on Jan 18, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Since this story is a Fitzpatrick story...
I think many of the stats point to a good, but not great, starting QB. Attempts are somewhat a function of playcalling, as is the situation. A lot of interceptions were thrown as Buffalo was trying to come back. A lot of interceptions were thrown where Fitzpatrick essentially threw Buffalo out of the game. For that point, the San Diego and second Miami game come to mind.
I like Fitzpatrick as the starting QB for the Bills in 2012. And probably 2013. As Greg in UT points out, he is the best quarterback this team has had since Bledsoe. I’m not, nor have I ever, advocated getting rid of Fitzpatrick. Quite the opposite, retaining Fitzpatrick has always been an essential part of my plan.
To answer Greg from UT, and others, here’s the plan: retain Fitzpatrick as the starter, but go get the young QB now. Sit him behind Fitzpatrick for 2-3 years. Fitzpatrick’s game may have dropped to a level inconsistent to that of a starting NFL QB by that point. That’s where the young QB takes over. And in Fitzpatrick, you know you already have an ideal back-up.
In those 2-3 years that the young QB sits and Fitzpatrick starts, you continue to build up the receiving corps and the defense. When that young QB takes over, those two areas will have been addressed.
A lot of folks on this site have advocated building the defense, getting better receivers, or finding a franchise QB. They aren’t mutually exclusive options. When you do it correctly (eg: hitting on draft picks) you’re team ends up looking like the Packers do now.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 18, 2012 2:32 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
… you’re team ends up looking like the Packers do now.
Like a team watching the Superbowl from their home sofas? :-D
Sorry, I must always vent my packer-hate.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I think many of the stats point to a good, but not great, starting QB.
Pretty much.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
What I saw this year
Fitzpatrick is adequate when the game is still close. Once the Bills fall behind and the offense goes pass-heavy, he is prone to make mistakes. He did have some amazing come-from-behind wins at the beginning of the season, but he also had some efforts later in the year that contributed to blowout losses, and he threw two badly underthrown passes in the Giants game that directly led to a loss.
His accuracy on medium passes is poor, and his accuracy on deep balls is atrocious. He shows good accuracy on shorter throws, but he frequently throws passes that just seem to get away from him. Additionally, his short passes lack touch, and he throws everything with as much velocity as he can get on the ball, even if the receiver is only ten feet away. I think this last aspect is what contributed to a lot of tipped passes going for interceptions.
The ability for Fitzpatrick to improve seems minimal. Retaining Stevie and adding another quality WR would certainly help him out. And while he will almost certainly be the starter next year (barring injury), we really need to pick up a QB to develop behind him. Thigpen isn’t it, nor is Brad Smith. We will be lucky to squeeze three more adequate seasons out of Fitzpatrick before somebody else will be needed to step in. There probably won’t be a good QB prospect (taking value of the pick into account) for the Bills in the first two rounds, but they might still be able to find a raw talent (like Case Keenum) in the middle rounds. Or, they can start competing now in the “Suck for Barkley” sweepstakes.
by SiriusRed on Jan 18, 2012 2:35 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Some are of the belief that Ryan Fitzpatrick sustained a rib injury in the Washington game from a big hit by former Bills, London Fletcher. According to this theory, Fitzpatrick’s ability to throw deep with accuracy was impeded through much of the remainder of the season. Was there ever any documentation of this from team sources, or are some folks just blowing smoke?
I said that in a game thread
Just a theory as to why Buffalo’s season seemed to tank after the Redskins game.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
If he did indeed sustain a significant rib injury that persisted for the remainder of the season (10 weeks?), then the Bills would be guilty of not disclosing information that should have appeared on the injury report.
by SiriusRed on Jan 18, 2012 2:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wouldn’t be the first time a team did that. Or even the worst time.
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
He was on the injury report after that game. If you remember, some were wondering early in the week if he'd play.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
Not true. All they have to list is if he practiced fully, limited, or not at all. That was a change a couple years ago.
by MattRichWarren on Jan 19, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Interceptions
are not the worst thing in the world. In fact many advanced stats guys would argue that when a team is behind in the fourth quarter (more than 7 points), every drive should end in an interception or a TD. Meaning if a QB overthrows or misfires his WR on a 4th down, that is a worse outcome/throw than an int. (Kind of like leaving a putt short when holing out is imperative on the back nine) So I dont fault Fitz a lot for the ints. YPA is a good stat but not awesome. The team needs talent. They have minimal high end talent. Fitz can succeed but the team will go nowhere, if based on his play this year, he is one of the best players on the team
The tragic tale of Ryan Fitzpatrick
A pretty good quarterback who saw the level of play around him deteriorate, tried to make up for it himself, and ended up getting sucked into that same riptide of mediocrity.
by Wien on Jan 18, 2012 3:18 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
this is fair
and holds true to Nix’s standpoint that this reasoning is more an explanation than an excuse.
However… There is no question that Fitz is inaccurate, and sometimes throws to spots, rather than individuals, and has questionable feet, questionable mechanics, and without a LOT of talent around him, may just plain not be good enough. Imagine if we didn’t have Fred Jackson, or Steve Johnson during the beginning of the season, as is a possibility for next year- can you honestly say that QB doesn’t require upgrading? We can watch ANOTHER season of borderline mediocrity (bordering on terrible, more frequently than awesome)… or we can draft a guy for the future, which we all know is a necessity, especially given the fact that Pigpen (ugh) and WR Brad Smith are our only other options right now.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think there is some truth to that, but the Bills were also a fairly healthy 5-2 football team coming off that dismantling of the Redskins when the wheels suddenly came off. And they came off specifically because Fitz and the receivers more than struggled against the Jets. The Bills were down 3-0 at halftime in a game where the D held strong despite Fitz throwing for 24 yards and two picks on 12 first half pass attempts. Then came the Dallas debacle where Bills fans still had tons of hope. So, it’s not like the team collapsed first and then Fitz followed. It all kind of happened together and Fitz was just as big a part of it as anyone else was.
"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington
by kaisertown on Jan 18, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i really like this post Kaiser
because it is well articulated, as well as incredibly poignant. So many (including Chan and Nix) are quick to assume/absolve Fitzpatrick in fault, but you don’t throw the most INTs in the league, with out deserving some of the blame. He was the one throwing those footballs. The ones that were dropped, the ones that were tipped, along with the worm burners, the floaters, and the ones that bounced right off his receivers’ backs, and into the defenders’ hands… when there wasn’t a receiver. I also saw a number of plays where he forced the ball to Nelson, or to Steve, while another receiver ran free right in front of him. I think he made decent pre snap reads, but when he failed on his guess, he rarely checked to an open guy, he rather, decided to force it to his first read, and hope for the best so to speak.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'll Rec that.
"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 18, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Fitzpatrick is a below average QB. There are 20 QBs I’d prefer over Fitz, he just isn’t good enough. Sure he is a great back-up, but he really isn’t much more than that. He makes reckless throws and sometimes those reckless throws result in interceptions. He has a weak long ball and he isn’t very good at reading the defenses’ coverage. This team needs to draft a QB, if it is a high potential late round pick(Osweiler, Harnish, BJ Coleman etc.) and let them sit for 1-2 years or a high round QB pick, this team needs to have a new, improved QB soon if they want to seriously compete.
Kenny Powers is back!
oops, meant for Hotlanta Lovin’ up thurr…
by Ian MacPersonoid on Jan 18, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Manning Brothers
Cam Newton
Alex Smith
Big Ben
Flacco
Brees
Romo
Could make a strong case for: Cambell, Freeman, Orton, Hassleback
Rivers
Ryan
Vick
Schaub
Cutler
Stafford
Kenny Powers is back!
agree with your first ten.
Accepting of course that I could tolerate Tom Brady or Big Ben, if they were somehow Buffalo Bills. NO WAY on orton/hasselbeck. I think these are the only two that Fitzpatrick might be able to be better than, given a couple more years starting. Hasselbeck due to his age, is not an upgrade to me,and Orton was AWFUL this year. Sure, he might prove more effective in our system, but that isn’t a guarantee by any means.
Agree with your remainder, even though i really can’t stand Cutler.
As a side note: Brady Quinn might be a good backup for us. Even though he is basically Trent Edwards with muscles, he might be effective with us, and has played cold weather football, which is the primary selling point on Cutler/Ben/Brady/Mannings/Stafford, for me.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
oh Rivers through Stafford should have been with Rodgers through Romo I must have hit “enter” somewhere.
I based Orton on last year and was just very impressed by Hassleback this year
Kenny Powers is back!
Hasselbeck was solid this year, for sure, but is not really a guy I would hang my hat on anymore.
Otherwise then, I agree with basically your whole list, except Orton… and we could substitute some unknowns to make up that last spot, because a guy like Locker or Ponder, or even Kaepernick or Dalton could all be considered over Fitz, IMO.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I was going for proven players. But I’d prefer Locker, Ponder, and Dalton over Fitzpatrick, but at the moment I don’t think they are better than Fitzpatrick
Kenny Powers is back!
by atlantalove on Jan 18, 2012 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
agree
and understand completely.
Dalton MIGHT be better than Fitz already. He managed a better record, and a playoff berth, with a nearly equally abysmal team. At least as I see it. If not for less than a handful of guys, like an offensive lineman selection or two… they are just as bad as us… without AJ Green. Dalton/Green, made a HUGE difference. I want our AJ this year, our Dalton within the next 3.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
with a nearly equally abysmal team
Disagree entirely. Don’t take that as an indictment of Dalton or Fitzpatrick. I just don’t think the teams around them are particularly similar.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 19, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Care to back that up?
I mean, I gave specific examples of how we differed. Let me further elaborate.
Buffalo ranked between 10-15 in passing offense attempts, completions, yards per game, and TDs. Cinci was between 20-25 in all these categories.
The way we are most dissimilar, is their defense ranked in the top 10, and ours was “abysmal”. So…. the strength of their team is the opposite of ours, yes. But in the ways we were deficient on defense, they were far better. In the ways we were outstanding on offense (and there were quite a few, not including INTs) they were less than impressive. A lot of this comes from their having some more experienced guys on defense, and from differences in philosophy and coaching, but comparisons certainly can be drawn.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 20, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
like i said
if not for some early selections made on their offensive lines, and their linebackers (which we have yet to truly address) then, we could be very similar teams. They have things we need, and yet, statistically weren’t better than us in offensive production, and that was the nature of the conversation. In fact, their defense was what kept them in games, because as I am sure you would agree, our ground game proved about as effective as any… which we ranked 13th overall, and they were 19th. Yet, they got to the playoffs, in a stronger division, and we…. well, you know how we did.
defense is the key. that is the moral of my story.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 20, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
Nice
Nice post MRW. I’d still like a rookie QB grooming in the wings regardless of Fitz’s attributes. Yes I want a QB but I’m resigned to fact/opinion OBD already has annointed Fitz qb into future. I officially will not proclaim my continued desire for a QB. Not because of backlash, but because seems like that wish is flushed! :(
The Sum Of A Franchise Is Directly Proportionate To The Talent Of Franchise's QB. Get A QB OBD!
I don't blame Fitz for all 23 of those interceptions
I blame him for some of them, but I blame the receivers and the game situation (desperate) for others. I completely support Fitz going into next year and think we can improve.
Go Buffalo Bills, Utah Jazz, and Arkansas Razorbacks
OUR KING DOME IS HOLLY GROUND YOU CAN ENTER BUT YOU WILL LEAVE WITH OUT A SOUL - Abayarde, Buffalo Rumblings
Of course, you can also blame Fitzpatrick for some errant passes that weren’t INTs because of superior effort from the receiver to get a hand between the ball and the defender.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
by WhyBillsWhy on Jan 19, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
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