Buffalo Bills Are NFL's Least Competitive Intra-Division Team

by Brian Galliford on Jan 18, 2012 4:06 PM EST in Buffalo Bills Opinion

You don't need any fancy charts or tables to know that the Buffalo Bills have been one of the worst-performing teams in divisional contest over the past few years. I set out to find out if they were the absolute worst, and wound up doing so in an interesting, if not wholly scientific fashion.

If you ask me, the answer is no, the Bills are not the worst team in the NFL when it comes to playing divisional opponents. They are, however, the least competitive NFL team in such contests, in my view.

I wanted to take a two-year sample size for this study because that's how long Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey have been in town. Believe me, I understand that the Bills have been putrid in AFC East games for much longer than two years; feel free to take this study back another two or three years if you've got the time.

There's no better indicator of how good a team is than wins and losses, and within the past two years, two teams have a worse divisional record (DR) than the Bills. Ergo, the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings are decidedly worse than the Bills in divisional contests, no matter which way you cut it.

But how competitive were the handful of teams that perform terribly in divisional contests? In order to figure that out, I brought in an approximate scoring margin (ASM) for the 12 divisional games in the study. Wham: the Bills were blown out by an average of 14 points per game in AFC East games, a figure that places them alone as the least competitive intra-divisional team in the NFL. That's just my opinion, of course, and the data doesn't completely remove subjectivity.

Finally, I figured I'd chart out every NFL team over the past two years in this category, and needed a third tie-breaker when teams with the same divisional record have the same approximate scoring margin. Thus, I brought non-divisional record (NDR) into the equation. Teams that are crappy out of the division should be crappy in it, right? Therefore, I ranked poor teams ahead of good teams when we got to the third tie-breaker. Again, that's completely subjective, but it makes for some interesting results.

We're guessing that readers may be surprised at the placement of a few teams on this list, most prominently the Eagles, Raiders and Giants. But getting back to the Bills: I'll offer a public apology here for quantifying just how terrible our favorite team is against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. I do, however, have one more stat for you: the Bills are the only NFL team that has surrendered an average of over 30 points per game in divisional contests over the last two years. Enjoy dinner!

#	Team	DR	ASM	NDR
1	New England Patriots	10-2	+16	17-3
2	Green Bay Packers	10-2	+9	15-5
3	Baltimore Ravens	10-2	+8	14-6
4	Philadelphia Eagles	9-3	+9	9-11
5	New Orleans Saints	9-3	+9	15-5
6	San Francisco 49ers	9-3	+8	10-10
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-3	+8	15-5
8	Oakland Raiders	9-3	+5	7-13
9	Chicago Bears	8-4	+5	11-9
10	Atlanta Falcons	8-4	+5	15-5
11	Houston Texans	7-5	+7	9-11
12	Seattle Seahawks	7-5	+5	7-13
13	New York Jets	7-5	+3	12-8
14	San Diego Chargers	6-6	+3	11-9
15	New York Giants	6-6	+2	13-7
16	Indianapolis Colts	6-6	-2	6-14
17	Jacksonville Jaguars	6-6	-3	7-13
18	Tennessee Titans	5-7	-1	10-10
19	Detroit Lions	5-7	-3	11-9
20	Kansas City Chiefs	5-7	-3	12-8
21	Miami Dolphins	5-7	-5	8-12
22	Dallas Cowboys	5-7	-5	9-11
23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5-7	-6	9-11
24	Arizona Cardinals	5-7	-8	8-12
25	Washington Redskins	4-8	-5	7-13
26	Denver Broncos	4-8	-5	8-12
27	Cincinnati Bengals	4-8	-5	9-11
28	St. Louis Rams	3-9	-4	6-14
29	Carolina Panthers	2-10	-7	6-14
30	Buffalo Bills	2-10	-14	8-12
31	Cleveland Browns	1-11	-10	8-12
32	Minnesota Vikings	1-11	-12	8-12

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Comments

Look who's #1 on the list...

Well they finally showed up to play and compete against NE for 3.5 quarters this year… too bad it wasn’t all in the same game (2nd half of first meeting and first quarter and half of second meeting). Before that it was 9 years of doom and gloom or "run and hide". Granted we have feel victim to having the Brady Era punch us smack dab in the face every year as it will be a joyous day when he retires (ala they rejoiced when Jimbo retired too). Even though Brady is one player and it takes more than him to beat the Bills or other teams, the Bills have not done enough to counterpunch NE and all their moves to effectively compete in the AFC East. Conversely the Jets, stepped up their game and turned poor seasons in 05 and 07 where they were 4-12 around to land great players and talents so they could compete with NE. Miami on the other hand, has been "fumbling around" for the past decade with a 1-15 season in 07 and 4 straight losing seasons.

The Bills are the worst though… and no playoffs since ‘99 is inexcusible. They have failed at a lot and mostly with coaching, drafts, and not matching the divisional power teams like NE and NYJ. Until they can consistantly win in the AFC East, they will continue to be shut out of the playoffs. I thought the decade that wasn’t for the Bills (2000 – 2010) would be easily forgotten about with this new decade. I guess somethings haven’t quite changed and Tom Brady hasn’t retired yet.

by dabillsr1 on Jan 18, 2012 4:15 PM EST reply actions

Tom brady

This man takes delight in running up the score on teams. There have been two rules implemented specifically for Tom Brady. I don’t want him to retire … I want to force him out. A real defense would be a wonderful start.

by ONEREALMAN on Jan 18, 2012 5:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs

Honestly, I am shocked that some team that has nothing to play for hasn’t taken cheap shots at Brady during garbage time. There is absolutely NO reason for him to be on the field throwing bombs to receivers when they’re winning by 24+ midway through the fourth quarter.

And you what, Brady is the one person in this league that I would have absolutely no hard feelings for if someone did hurt him in that manner.

by Schrims on Jan 18, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

You'd probably get suspended for a year

If James Harrison did it, he would probably be banned from football, and face attempted murder charges.

Is this your homework, Larry?

by Schooled You on Jan 18, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

I know it would probably end in a long extension, but you figure these guys put in all that effort week in and week out, and then Tom Brady comes along and throws for 6 touchdowns and they’re still throwing up 41-10 in the fourth. I’m just shocked no one has lost their cool yet.

by Schrims on Jan 18, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

Things got real chippy with Denver last week in the 4th.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 18, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

beat Brady PLEASE

I would love more than anything for our Bills to beat Brady and the Hoodie in a game that means something so bad. There is a big part of me that will feel cheated if Brady retires before this happens.

by itwasaforwardpass on Jan 18, 2012 7:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

when we beat them this year

it was still a meaningful game

by lord gloom on Jan 19, 2012 12:58 AM EST up reply actions

On Colin Cowherd’s show yesterday, Peter King said in speaking with Brady last offseason that he intends on playing until he’s 40.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 19, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

If people want him to stop, then they have to stop him. It’s not his job to take his foot off the gas, it’s the other team’s job to take his foot off the gas for him.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Jan 18, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

If people want him to stop, then they have to stop him. It’s not his job to take his foot off the gas, it’s the other team’s job to take his foot off the gas for him.

Couldn’t agree more if you don’t like it stop him!

How come I always get blamed for everything I do ?

Dennis the Menace

by Goose22 on Jan 19, 2012 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

Great article, putrid franchise

It’s no secret: Until they can compete with the teams they play twice a year, they can’t compete on the leaguewide level- ie- the postseason tournament. I don’t want to hear excuses about New England being in the division either. New York has competed with New England and while they often took their lumps, managed to beat them enough to finish higher in the postseason tournament from 09-10. Miami did so in 08 by winning the division. It’s time Buffalo stops making excuses and starts piling up wins like everyone else.

"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix

by Port Royal on Jan 18, 2012 4:20 PM EST reply actions

totally agree

We need to build our team to beat our division opponents. Until we can be competitive with Tom Brady, we won’t make the playoffs. Unfortunately that week 3 game, although it was great, it seems like a fluke. hopefully not and the week 17 game was..

You are now Watching The Throne.

by tomcs on Jan 18, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

Great, another stat showing how

indusputabley horried our team is.

I can’t wait until the day when its not embarrasing to root for the Bills again.

Is this your homework, Larry?

by Schooled You on Jan 18, 2012 4:33 PM EST reply actions

That’s just my opinion, of course, and the data doesn’t completely remove subjectivity.

Though this data doesn’t COMPLETELY remove subjectivity, this analysis is painfully accurate, and your opinion is entirely warranted. I think this is a great article, it shows that we have a long way to go still, regardless of how sure Nix/Buddy are, about our ability to contend. Sure, past failure is not proof of future failure, but it shows that we are barely competitive, regardless of winning some games early.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Jan 18, 2012 4:42 PM EST reply actions

Is

Approximate scoring margin = to average scoring margin?

by J09 on Jan 18, 2012 4:49 PM EST reply actions

Yes and no. Mostly no. I calculated total points for and against, divided by 12, rounded, and then calculated margin. Hence “approximate.” Buffalo lost by an approximate (average) score of 31-17.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
Follow @BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jan 18, 2012 6:12 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

Thanks Brian!

I had a bad day at work and this makes me feel absolutely dejected.

Great post though. Well done.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 18, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions

It's coaching

There are several buffalo head coaches that are still hanging around as assistants but none are current head coaches of successful teams. Dave Wannsted is going to turn around Buffalos defense then Chan and his pass first game will be looking over his shoulder because Buffalo has a stable of running backs but are stuck with linguine arm and no real stud receiver to play gailey style ball.

by ONEREALMAN on Jan 18, 2012 5:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions

If the Bills were to show Chan the door, I’d honestly rather see them start the head coach search from the beginning than just promote Wannsted. Nothing against him, but he really does have a track record of being a better coordinator than coach.

by Schrims on Jan 18, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting stats

So the Eagles, Seahawks, and Colts haven’t won a single game outside their own division in the past two years? Am I reading that right?

by BillsfaninBoise on Jan 18, 2012 5:56 PM EST reply actions

No, you’re not reading it right. Non-division record is the column on the right.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
Follow @BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jan 18, 2012 6:15 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

And now I finally understand your confusion, Billsfaninboise. Add DR and NDR together to get the total record from the last two years. Hope that helps!

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
Follow @BrianGalliford

by Brian Galliford on Jan 18, 2012 6:17 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

Ahhhh…now it makes sense. For some reason I had it in my mind that the NDR column was the total of both in-division and non-division. Thanks for clearing that up!

by BillsfaninBoise on Jan 19, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

Great idea

But I’m not sure about the follow through. I’m at a graduate level (although not a doctorate) with statistics, and my gut instinct says that the sample size for each team’s divisional record is not large enough to draw any statistically significant conclusions. Usually the rule of thumb is a sample size of 30 — as is in 30 games with divisional games for this particular study. Therefore, your offer to readers to draw this study out to 4 years ago (or more) makes more sense, and would be a more accurate and comprehensive analysis. Ultimately, it may show the same type of conclusions that you draw from this abbreviated sample, but would have a more sound methodology.

by BostonJL on Jan 18, 2012 11:28 PM EST reply actions 2 recs