Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. And they keep Peyton Manning. Just because the fans, the media, and maybe even Oliver Luck think Manning should move on, the only two opinions that matter are those of Jim Irsay and Bill Polian. And I think they won't rush this situation. They might lose out on a couple day two draft picks, but I think Indianapolis keeps both and re-evaluates after the 2012 season.
Washington (trade from St. Louis); Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor. This trade makes the most sense for both teams. St. Louis isn't going to get considerably better plugging Grifffin in for Sam Bradford. Bradford is also the owner of the last large rookie NFL contract, making him somewhat harder to trade. Washington needs a franchise quarterback, and Mike Shanahan has traded up to get his quarterback in the past. Dan Synder will give up the picks to get RGIII, unless they decide to trade for Matt Flynn, which shouldn't be discounted.
(Trade note: Washington gives up 1st and 2nd round picks in 2011, and 1st round pick in 2013)
3.) Minnesota: Matt Kalil, OT, USC. No-brainer pick for Minnesota. The Vikings are rebuilding around Christian Ponder, who has been injured at season's end. A franchise left tackle solidifies the line and helps protect Ponder. Kalil is the safest pick in the draft, with a lot of upside and NFL bloodlines.
4.) Cleveland: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. Mike Holmgren rode Shaun Alexander to the Super Bowl in 2005, and he knows the value of a work-horse in a West Coast scheme. Richardson is one of those rare talents that break the "don't pick a running back high" rule. In Cleveland, he'll run 25 times a game, take pressure off Colt McCoy, and make Cleveland a tough out, especially in December.
5.) Tampa Bay: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU. This is a case of BPA meeting pressing need. Tampa Bay's offense regressed, but it was due to down years at multiple positions. The defense has a solid front loaded with young talent. Ronde Barber isn't getting younger, and Aqub Talib has major legal troubles. Tampa Bay plays against three other franchise quarterbacks in the NFC South. Claiborne makes sense here.
6.) St. Louis (from Washington): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford. Bradford needs some receivers. He could also use some protection. Rodger Saffold might be better off at guard, and Jason Smith hasn't live up to his #2 overall draft status, and has been playing right tackle. Franchise left tackles are harder to find than receivers. There are two sure-fire left tackles in 2012. With two second round picks, the Rams pass on the receiver and take the left tackle.
7.) Jacksonville: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State. Blackmon looks like a young Terrell Owens to me. He can do everything well, but is elite over the middle and in the short to intermediate passing game. Blaine Gabbert played all of 2011 with reserve receivers starting. Blackmon becomes his go-to receiver in 2012.
8.) Carolina: Dre' Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama. The Panthers could go Quentin Coples with this pick. I think Coples looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. The Panthers could use an offensive tackle, but after seeing Riley Reiff get beat up by Oklahoma pass rushers, I think his stock takes a dive. Carolina follows suit with Tampa Bay, and takes the cornerback.
9.) Miami: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. This is a tough pick to predict. The Dolphins need a quarterback, and two are on the board in Jones and Ryan Tannehill. I think Tannehill is better but Jones is more ready to play in 2012. That said, Jones should stay in school. He could challenge Matt Barkley as the top pick in 2013 if he did. I don't think he will. It's a similar situation to Gabbert last year. Jones will test well in terms of throwing ability and attitude, and Miami has the offensive line in place to protect him. This pick will be a tough one to project before free agency. I don't think Miami has the firepower that Washington has to go get RGIII, and they are the ultimate losers in Barkley's decision. The new head coach could choose to go a receiver or front seven on defense. Unless Miami decides on a free agent, I think Jones is the pick.
10.) Buffalo: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Buffalo's in a good spot to take a quarterback. The Bills should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, and contend in 2013. Unless Buddy Nix's builds a defense like the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens, Ryan Fitzpatrick will hold them back. Tannehill has elite tools and intangibles. He just needs experience. Buffalo sits him for a year behind Fitzpatrick, and uses the rest of the 2012 draft, and the 2013 off-season to build the team. The team and Tannehill should be ready at about the same time.
Note: I think Matt Flynn plays into this top ten. Miami and Washington are going to do internal mock drafts, and conclude that if Indianapolis takes Luck, the best deal for RGIII wins. Ownership of both teams is more into high-impact off-seasons, and selling Landry Jones to the fanbase might not work. I think one of the two teams works for Flynn like Houston did for Matt Schaub. I think Washington is most likely to make the move because Green Bay and Washington have west coast based offenses, and Shanahan seems most comfortable with veterans at quarterback.
Mock drafts are opinions, so post away if you agree or not.