What do you like this weekend? - Conference Championships

by rjryan on Jan 20, 2012 2:51 PM EST

We're really winding down now. After some really exciting games last weekend, we're faced with another great day of football on Sunday. Let's recap last week:

NO@SF OVER 47: (W) - I thought this was going to be a close cover...boy was I wrong. This game covered by a mile.

NE-13.5: (W) I said Brady would hang 45 on the Broncs...what did he do? He hung 45 on the Broncs!

DEN@NE OVER 50: (W) Not had to cover a 50 total (I actually got it at 51) when one team hangs 45.

BAL-7.5: (L) I was among the very, very many that got the ole #### by a lousy 1/2 point! Balty had the game locked too. All they had to do was punch that one in at the end.

GB-7.5: (L) I said it was the least confident pick I had last week...obviously we know why. I simply hate Eli Manning. I just cannot tolerate his goober face any longer. I guess it's a good thing he gets to travel to SF to play that monster Defense this weekend. I bet his face doesn't look the same after Sunday!

Season Record is now 85-68-7 going into the Conference Championship games. Lines and picks after the break...

BAL@NE -7 O/U50.5

NYG@SF-2.5 O/U42

My picks:

BAL@NE OVER 50.5 - While I do not think NE can hang 45 on Baltimore, I do think they can put up some numbers over the course of the game. I also expect Balty to put up some points an a very sub-par NE defense.

NE-7 - This game comes down to who scores more often, IMO. The weather will be perfect on Sunday in NE. While I expect a lot of points, I'll take the better QB to pull away in the 4th quarter and win the game by 10 or so points.

NYG@SF OVER 42 - While Alex Smith will not face the crazy blitzing he did last week (which he flourishes against, FYI), he will see some heavy pressures. I expect them to be able to get the ball to their receivers who will be left one-on-one often enough to get a team score into the mid to high 20s. I also expect home field advantage to continue to play a big role in SF's success. Eli (while I hate him) will be the same opportunistic player he has always been and find his targets when needed for the big flashy plays and points. I also expect this over to cover with the help of 5 or 6 field goals. It looks like the rain will be mostly finished in San Fran by kickoff.

SF-2.5 - I like the SF to win this one late...possibly even in Overtime. The Giants run has been exciting; and the chance at a Super Bowl rematch will be an equally enticing story line (almost as exciting as the HarBowl many are hoping for) but look for SF to play spoiler here and the Giants party with a late game score!

Well? What do you like this weekend?

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

I have been guessing well these last two weeks, including 6 of 7 last weekend. Time to fall on my butt.

I usually do not pick two road teams in Conf Champ games but that is my gut feeling right now.

Baltimore over NE, and taking the under. The officiating crews the past two weeks are letting a lot of penalties go uncalled in the play-offs so far, and I see that trend continuing. I believe that will favor Baltimore as they can hold up the receivers longer to throw off the NE passing game. I’m guessing 23-20.

NYG over 49ers with a similar score 24 17. Eli M hits some big deep balls. No play O/U.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jan 20, 2012 9:50 PM EST reply actions

Just ended up 2 of 3. Should have known Lee Evans would be involved with lousing up my prediction. Hey hey now relax, it’s just a joke.

Got the Balt-NE final correct, just backward, and the 49ers scored 17 and lost by one score. (Pats self on back.)

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jan 22, 2012 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for doing these all season long!

I don’t have the free income to try out the betting lines, but I always looked forward to seeing the different reasonings behind what bets people made – just like enjoying the Author-Mod picks each week.

I’m pulling for a Harbaugh Bowl 2, but I don’t see it happening.

New England over Baltimore, and I don’t think it’s even close. I’m going to say 38-24 (with the Ravens getting a too-little too-late touchdown to make it seem closer than it was). Don’t forget that Tom Brady threw for 5 TD passes in a single half last week. Even against a good defense like Baltimore, he is on fire right now, and he’ll take them apart like he did a decent Denver defense. Plus, I think Belichick has finally put his pieces in place on that defense, and Joe Flacco is going to hand the Pats one or two short fields to work with.

San Francisco over New York. I think it’s going to be close, and if it’s the fourth quarter and the 49ers are winning by less than a touchdown I like Eli Manning to make a comeback drive to win it. But I think San Fran holds them off in the end, 27-20. Like all season long, I think San Fran has been underestimated. Everyone saw the Giants beat Green Bay last week and is talking about them being dangerous, but a lot of people thought New Orleans could have beaten them and the 49ers were able to win against the Saints. This is a hard hitting, smashmouth football team in every sense of the word. That defense is awe-inspiring, and Alex Smith is a great QB for Harbaugh’s system. I think Ahmad Bradshaw rediscovers his fumble problems, Brandon Jacobs runs into solid walls of defenders, Victor Cruz has trouble against Carlos Rogers, and Eli Manning starts doing the panicking team-carrying he had to do most of the season. It’s enough for the 49ers to take the victory.

If I were a betting man, I’d take New England to cover the spread and I’d take the over on Baltimore-New England. I’d take San Fran to win by at least a field goal, but I wouldn’t play on the over/under.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Jan 21, 2012 3:12 AM EST reply actions

I like Baltimore and SF...

Baltimore 23, New England 17. I don’t think the Patriots will be able to put up 40 points vs. Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens will be able to pressure Brady, which should make all the difference. The Pats really haven’t beaten anyone all year, and while they hardly played any quality opponents, I just don’t see this as one of their vintage teams.

San Francisco 20, New York 13. This is really more of a wish pick than anything else because I live in New York and I don’t want to hear about the Giants for another 2 weeks. I hadn’t watched much of the Niners this year, but I was really impressed with them next week. The muddy field should allow them to control the clock with their run game, and it should also keep Eli & Co.’s high-flying pass attack somewhat in check.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 21, 2012 11:39 AM EST reply actions

Hmmmmmmmmmmm...............

BAL@NE -7 O/U50.5
Wouldn’t touch this one with a fifty foot pole. This one could go in ten different directions. Don’t like it at all.

NYG@SF-2.5 O/U42
The San Fran defense is awesome! But, let’s face it folks, its still Alex Smith on offense. He’s Alex Smith!
The Giants’ Big Boys will pound him into turnovers.
Eli has been playing out of his mind, and although he will get crushed a few times when dropping back, he will pull this game out with a few bombs thrown over Whitner’s head.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 21, 2012 6:28 PM EST reply actions

I will be convinced.

he will pull this game out with a few bombs thrown over Whitner’s head.

If the niners win and Whitner goes to the superbowl,

that Whitner had a sitdown with Satan and sold his soul for a super bowl.

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 22, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

I also agree with ya sarge

I like the G-Men +2.5

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 22, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

Ka-Ching (Again) Baby!

Rack up another 5 units :) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 23, 2012 7:04 AM EST up reply actions

Although

I really sweated this one out.

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 23, 2012 7:08 AM EST up reply actions

Wow

I got killed. Congrats to the rumblers who made much better decisions that I made this weekend! one game left!

by rjryan on Jan 23, 2012 9:48 AM EST reply actions

I racked 6K this year

I LOVE NFL Football, my method is to pick one game you feel good about each week, and don’t bet before week 5.

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 23, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

Because

If you bet too many things, you get killed on booking fees, find 1 bet you are sure of.

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 23, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

And always

trust your first instinct,

when you second guess yourself, you always lose.

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 23, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

And NEVER BET ON THE BILLS

For or Against, they will break your heart EVERY TIME.

Girls use hair spray, Men don't.

DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!

Don't be a Paully!

by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 23, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

All good advice, Kid! I try to find a few games and rate them. I scale bets based on my degree of confidence. However, you don’t see a * rating system when I write this post each week as I know many rumblers will not get it. This was more of an experiment to see how many folks would find these types of posts interesting. After the Super Bowl, I plan on doing a poll to gauge interest for next season. I enjoy writing these weekly posts.

also – re: a couple of your rules – I raked in the cash on weeks 1-5 this year and tanked after week 9/10. Also – the Bills made me a TON of $ until their implosion.

Congrats on the 6K – that is an awesome year, my friend!

by rjryan on Jan 23, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions