Comparative Analysis of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller in 2011

by astrazz2 on Jan 27, 2012 3:39 PM EST

It remains a mystery as to how the Bills will look to split carries between Jackson and Spiller moving forward. I recently wrote a piece looking at how the Bills rushing offense performed this season. If you want to read that, click this link. The purpose of this piece is to compare Spiller and Jackson's performances this past season and try to determine how carries should be split moving forward.

In my last article I looked at all the Bills rushing plays by running backs in 2011. Here is a brief description as well as the results:

I recorded the distance for each run by our running backs. I ignored runs by Fitz since they were designed passing plays and runs that occurred when Fitz was pulled since they indicated the it was in garbage time. I also chose to exclude Brad Smith's wildcat runs. Here is the breakdown:

Bills RB's averaged 5.1 yds/carry

<3 yards: 158 carries

4-8 yards: 94 carries

9-14 yards: 27 carries

15+ yards: 25 carries

Totals Rushes: 304

Percent of Rushes 9+ yards: 17%

Percent of Rushes <3 yards: 52%

Fred Jackson ran the ball 170 times for 934 yds and 6 TD, averaging 5.4 yds/carry. 39 rec for 442 yds 0 TD.

C.J. Spiller ran the ball 107 times for 561 yds and 4 TD, averaging 5.2 yds/carry. 39 rec for 269 yds and 2 TD.

In the first 7 games, Jackson had 137 carries while Spiller had only 13. While Jackson was seemingly dominant on the field, the data I collected suggests that Spiller may have been just as effective, if not more so, than Jackson with his limited touches.

Jackson: (1st 7 games----Total)

<3 yards: 76 carries----89 carries

4-8 yards: 38 carries----51 carries

9-14 yards: 12 carries----16 carries

15+ yards: 11 carries----14 carries

Spiller: (1st 7 games----Total)

<3 yards: 4 carries---- 52 carries

4-8 yards: 4 carries---- 36 carries

9-14 yards: 3 carries---- 8 carries

15+ yards: 2 carries---- 11 carries

Through the first 7 games, Spiller rushed the ball only 13 times compared to Jackson's 137 carries. Most people, myself included, argued that Jackson was simply playing too good to warrant putting Spiller in the game. But when I looked over the running plays I noticed something interesting. Of the 13 carries Spiller had in the first 7 weeks, only 4 resulted in <3 yards. So 9/13 (69%) of his runs were successful (4+ yards). Of Jackson's 137 carries in those games, 77 resulting in <3 yards- entailing that only 60/137 (44%) of his runs were successful. Additionally, Spiller ran for 9+ yards on 5/13 (38%) of those carries, compared to Jackson's 23/137 (16%).

How did the two compare on the season? They were actually remarkably similar.

<3 yards: Jackson 52%---Spiller 48%

4-8 yards: Jackson 30%--- Spiller 34%

9-14 yards: Jackson 9%---- Spiller 8%

15+ yards: Jackson 8%--- Spiller 10%

Another area I looked at was how consistent the Bills were when they ran the ball. The Bills RB's average 5.2 yards/carry, but that number was thwarted by 25 runs of 15+ yards. On those 25 carries we gained 672 of our 1565 total rushing yards for the season. So 8% of our runs accounted for 43% of our total rushing yardage. On the remaining 279 rushes we averaged a very pedestrian 3.2 yards/carry.

Jackson had 14 runs over 15 yards that accounted for 411 yards (44%) of his total rushing yardage.

Spiller had 11 runs over 15 yards that accounted for 261 yards (46%) of his total rushing yardage.

Ignoring these carries, Jackson averaged 3.4 yds/attempt and Spiller averaged 3.1 yds/attempt.

Overall the numbers between the two are extremely balanced. As a team the Bills need to be more consistent with the run game as it is very difficult to sustain drives when half your runs are unsuccessful. Jackson exceeded Spiller's receiving yardage total by a lot, but in my opinion that was due to the design of the plays. Jacksons receptions were generally screen passes meant to get him in open space, Spillers were generally short routes designed to take advantage of mismatches and get 5-10 yards. The biggest difference between the two is that Jackson made more out of his bad carries. He turned no gainers into 2-3 yards runs, while Spiller would generally go down at the line. That's why I believe Jackson averaged more yards per carry despite the relative distribution of yardage gains being similar. Jackson is still the better player right now, but Spiller isn't far behind. In my opinion the Bills should use a 60-40 split in carries moving forward next season. The Bills would benefit from finding ways to get the ball into both of their hands as often as possible- a feat made easier when both of them are on the field.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

they are awsome

Fred should indeed get a contract and finish his career here. Spiller is progressing nicely and should be ready to take over the role when needed.

"The Buffalo Bills have just exploded all over the Cincinnati Bangles"
-Steve Tasker-

by billsoferie on Jan 27, 2012 6:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions

loss of yards

I’d like to see one more stat here before reaching a conclusion. I would like to see a comparison between the percentage of each backs carries that went for a loss of yards. It feels to me like Fred constantly makes something of nothing, whereas CJ seems to lose yards more frequently. Admittedly, I stopped paying very close attention once the season became meaningless. So, I would be prepared to be surprised. However, it would be interested to see…

by tarvismonroe on Jan 27, 2012 8:10 PM EST reply actions

fair enough

but I didn’t notice a significant difference when I was looking the stats over… in my opinion its not important what the stats say about that though. any running back can get pounced on by a nose tackle as soon as they touch the ball, its not the same conditions for every carry they take.. any fan who watched the Bills play this year know that Freddy is still in a different category than Spiller, and most backs in this league, at reading blocks and the defense and making the right cuts. Spiller is just more naturally gifted and when/if he catches up to Jackson in that department he will be a tough player to stop. I just hope that when Freddy is winding down and Spiller is up for FA the coach makes it well known that they feel he can be a feature back. It would be foolish to lose a top 10 pick with that much talent because you don’t think he can take the carries without ever testing it.

by astrazz2 on Jan 27, 2012 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

Jackson and Spiller = Thunder and Lightning

We really need to get both of these players going next year. We have the best RB tandem in the NFL, bar none. If we aren’t averaging at least 55% running plays, we aren’t taking advantage of our talent. Fred’s vision and shiftiness make him an asset for moving the chains, blocking blitzers, and leading the team forward. CJ’s electrifying agility forces the defense to keep him covered no matter where he is, because he will break a big play at a moment’s notice, and now that his patience is improved he can be used in all facets of the game, even the red zone.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Jan 27, 2012 10:06 PM EST reply actions

If you haven’t, I would suggest you check out the piece I wrote the other day that I linked in the first paragraph. 55% running this year wouldn’t have been realistic; that would mean over 1/4 our plays would result in gains on less than 3 yards. I don’t think our problem is that we don’t run enough- I think it’s that when we run we don’t consistently gain enough yardage to sustain drives. If we make some changes to the offense and become a more consistent rushing team we will sustain drives longer, and there will be plenty of carries to go around

by astrazz2 on Jan 27, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

rec’d

These two posts do a nice job of summarizing some very comprehensive statistics on our running game. I agree with many of the conclusions and you should be recognized for taking the time to get into the specifics.

I have low expectations. But high hopes.

by greysquirrel on Jan 28, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

I am curious if in your research you have any numbers to back up a feeling I have.

I have made the argument in the past that as good as Fred and Spiller are they are not very good at second and third and short yardage when the defense knows that a run is coming(power runing). I think this is why they drafted White and picked up Choice. Fred especially is good at finding something out of nothing, but so many times on third and one or two just cant move the chains. Early in the season they used Smith out of the wildcat in these situations and although he never broke one long he was quite succesful at getting the first down. I have no problems with giving it to Smith in short yardage situations as long as he is succesful. I think of Fred and CJ, Fred would be the better short yardage back, and could be more succesful if they were lined up with Fred and CJ in the backfield as a dual threat and with some less predictable playcalls. What do you think is the answer for next years short yardage situations?

I like your conclusions and would be fine with a 60/40 run split with CJ getting a little more work as a receiver (put in motion from the RB position) out of the slot. IMO teams will have to respect CJ when he is on the field which will give Fred even more room to work his talent of finding the small crease and busting it for big gains.

Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.

by jbbillfan on Jan 28, 2012 12:55 AM EST reply actions

I didn’t really look at the down and distance for each carry, but I did notice that there were a lot of runs for no gain on those 3rd and shorts… I think predictable play calling has something to do with it. In my opinion the Bills line isn’t as good as people are giving it credit for. I think our RB’s do such a good job at finding holes that they were able to break runs for big gains, but often times the holes weren’t there and the play was a failure. That’s why when teams stacked the line we couldn’t seem to get a push forward to get the first.

In those specific situations I would be ok with anything that makes us less predictable. How about some more play action? Naked Bootleg? I don’t know, anything that isn’t a slant or dive up the middle every time.

by astrazz2 on Jan 28, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

I've seen this argument made elsewhere...

So 8% of our runs accounted for 43% of our total rushing yardage. On the remaining 279 rushes we averaged a very pedestrian 3.2 yards/carry….
As a team the Bills need to be more consistent with the run game as it is very difficult to sustain drives when half your runs are unsuccessful.

People saying that the high average masks a large proportion of “unsuccesful” runs. What I’d be very interested to know is, is this really a problem compared to other teams. Do other teams with 5+ yards per carry tend to have a lower proportion of low-yielding runs than the Bills do? Do some teams with a substantially less yards per carry turn out to be more consistent runners? (less likely to get stuffed). Would love to see someone check this out…

by beninbrooklyn on Jan 30, 2012 12:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs