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The Jaeger Plan

This post is what I would do, today. I'm bored, I'm waiting for the first draft of my paper to come back with revisions, and there aren't a ton of draft prospects in the Sugar Bowl, so I'll throw this post out there and see what happens.

I go with a three-part plan: Stabilize, Fill, Build.

Part One- Stabilize. This phase is designed to minimize needs by resigning players. My list includes Scott Chandler, Bryan Scott, Demetrius Bell, Kraig Urbik, Rian Lindell, and Chad Rinehart. Chandler is the Bills best option at TE. Scott is a glue guy for the defense that fills a lot of roles. Bell and Hairston battle for the starting LT position, with the loser becoming the swing tackle. Rinehart is a solid depth lineman. Urbik is a starter, and Lindell's value is apparent to Bills fans now. I’d also pay Fitzpatrick’s bonus and keep him.

I'd spend a long time talking with Gailey about Stevie Johnson and ensure that Gailey was comfortable with Johnson returning, and then talk to Johnson about the situation. If Gailey and I both felt comfortable with the situation moving forward, I'd resign him.

Part Two- Fill. This is mainly free agency. First need is a cornerback, with Tracey Porter and Aaron Ross as the targets. I don't think Porter would leave New Orleans for Buffalo, so I'd focus on Ross. I'm a huge fan of the two tight end set, and I'd go after John Carlson. Carlson is a better in-line blocker than Chandler, and would let Chandler flex and move more. I'd also look at Robert Meachum to get speed on the outside. I might consider Anthony Spencer, but the lack of edge rushers might make it a necessity to overpay for him, and I'm not into that.

Part Three- Build. Two draft options I like:

Draft One: No trade up.

1.) Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
2.) Best edge rusher available. Possibly Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse. Maybe Devin Taylor, DE/OLB South Carolina
3.) Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami, Fla.
4.) DeQuan Menzie, CB Alabama
4.) Cam Johnson, DE/OLB Virginia
5.) Marcel Jones, OT Nebraska
5.) Armond Armstead, DE/DT, USC
6.) Mason Cloy, C Clemson
7.) Cody Johnson, RB/FB, Texas

Draft Two: trade up 2nd and 3rd to get back into first round.

1.) Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
1.) Best edge rusher available. Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB Illinois; I'd take a long look to see if Alabama ILB Dont'a Hightower would be a better pro outside. He reminds me a bit of Ahmad Brooks, who played ILB at Virginia but moved outside in the pros. Hightower, in limited rush attempts, beat Florida RT Xavier Nixon cleanly in their game this year.
4.) DeQuan Menzie, CB Alabama
4.) Cam Johnson, DE/OLB Virginia
5.) Marcel Jones, OT Nebraska
5.) Armond Armstead, DE/DT, USC
6.) Mason Cloy, C Clemson
7.) Cody Johnson, RB/FB, Texas

And I'd bring in Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator.

That's a joke. Flame away.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

Comment 103 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Pass on Tannehill

This regime has made its bed with Fitz. If they don’t win this year, they’re out. They don’t get to start again with Tannehill in 2013. And a new coach might want a new QB. I’d rather trade down and grab an extra pick for next year.

And bring Stevie back, no matter what. A 15-yard penalty just doesn’t matter that much.

by usuo mojinga on Jan 3, 2012 11:25 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

It’s actually two 15 yard penalties.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Jan 4, 2012 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

One which propelled the Jets to points, one which propelled the Patriots to a punt.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 4, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

It doesnt matter, because its not the point. But Jets didn’t punt they scored a TD.

I have low expectations. But high hopes.

by greysquirrel on Jan 4, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I would actually argue that neither propelled anyone to anything…..Rayner screwed up a kickoff…but I understand your point. However, I’m not sure it matters anyway. At the very least he’s putting his team in a field position disadvantage. That said, I’d still resign him at the right price.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Jan 4, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The Jaeger Plan....?

Is it bad that I’m kind of disappointed it didn’t involve a few JagerBombs?

by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 3, 2012 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

Joking aside, I like the plan.

Resigning the key guys, as you mentioned, is the most important thing to do. And we must be active in free agency. i also really your trade up draft because it seems doable and isn’t really far fetched.

HOWEVER, if we do not re-sign Johnson (which i think would be a mistake) then I would pass on Tannehill in favor of Micheal Floyd…. in fact. In fact i’d probably draft Floyd either way.

And it’s not because i don’t like Tannehill, it’s because I don’t think that Nix is going to draft a QB as long as Gailey is his coach./ Another losing season and Gailey will be gone, and I think that Fitzy would go with him. Prompting the new coach to draft his own franchise QB.

by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 3, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Key Guy's?

Like Fitz and Kelsay? jk. This team has like three key guys, in no particular order. KW, CJ and dang ,make that two key guys:( Stop with the excuses OBD swpend $$ and draft smartly, get with the program,geesh!

If you didn't like my last post wait till you read the next! :) Until we draft/acquire franchise QB we'll be setting records for losing soon!

by buffalobacker on Jan 3, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think Nix and Gailey have that short of a leash

And I also don’t ascribe to drafting receivers in the first round, unless they are like Calvin Johnson, etc. None of the receivers this year strike me as the kind of guy a team is compelled to take.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

WRs aren’t as critical to team success as a franchise QB. Just look at Calvin Johnsons team success before Staffords arrival. And Megatron is regarded as the best at his position. Michael Floyd doesn’t remotely come close to Calvin like talent. In my book he’s a Dwane Bowe type. Possibly. Maybe worse, considering his off field issues.

In Gaileys offense it shouldn’t be that hard to fil the Z. Barring injuries to our top 3 at the Z position again, we should be fine there. I like the idea of taking a franchise QB that can learn behind Fitz. We have to look 3 years out. And when I mean 3 years out I mean ‘how can we be a TRUE contender, a team pundits pick to WIN the Super Bowl, 3 years from today’.

Believing the draft to be the truest manner in which to build a team, I think the only answer to that question would be to draft a franchise QB…this year. No WR, OLB, DE or anyone else picked in the first will get us there. Just my opinion.

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with this

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Just curious

What do you make of a situation like Blaine Gabbert’s then? Coming in he was expected to be one of the top 3 quarterback prospects in his draft. But he has struggled mightily in his first year. He also has probably the worst group of wide receivers in the league.
Sam Bradford is another one. Drafted first overall, but he doesn’t have any go-to receivers, and his guys keep getting injured. He really struggled this year because of that.

Of course, another common thread in these is that the player in question also tends to have poor pass blocking, leading to them getting sacked too much.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Jan 4, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

You don't need elite first round receivers

Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson are great receivers that we’re selected outside the first round.

Same for Devery Henderson, Marquis Colston, and Lance Moore.

60% of franchise QB’s are 1st rounders. I’d rather spend a first rounder on a QB and get receivers later on.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 5, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not a big fan of this comment...

I’ve heard people say the same exact thing for all positions. Can you at least provide some numbers that support your claims?

by LanceArmstrong_LIVESTRONG on Jan 5, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Take a look at who John Clayton calls franchise

This year he had Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Ryan, Vick, Eli Manning, Romo, Flacco, Schaub and Freeman.

13 QB’s. Brady, Brees, Romo and Schaub were not first rounders. 69% – 70% of his “franchise” QB’s were first round picks.

Take just about any source that lists franchise QB’s, and work that same test, and you’ll find that it works out to about 60%. Some, like Clayton’s, are higher, some are lower.

You can also work another test on playoff QB’s.

This year we’ve got Brady, Flacco, Yates, Tebow, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Rodgers, Brees, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Stafford, and Ryan in the playoffs. Of the 12, Brady, Yates, Dalton, Brees, and Smith weren’t first rounders. 58% of playoff QB’s are first rounders this year. I’ve done the math on it for a bunch of years, and it’s almost always around 60%.

Another percentage is the rates at which QB’s pan out and become effective starters. Over the past 20 years, it’s 46% for first rounders, 20% for second rounders, and 13% for 3rd rounders.

Based on that I’ve got a 60-60-45 rule. 60% of franchise QB’s are first rounders, 60% of playoff QB’s are first rounders, and you hit on 45% of first round QB’s.

It’s why I pound the table each and every year for the Bills to draft a first round QB.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 5, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Here you go:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/drafting-quarterbacks/

Some research done by Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

If too lazy to read, here is the conclusion of research:

“The conclusion here is simple: if you need a quarterback, draft a one as early as possible. If you draft a quarterback after the 48th overall pick, temper expectations. There’s a reason Tom Brady’s story stands out: he’s the only quarterback of 262 drafted after pick 100 since 1980 to have a CAV over 100. Only Mark Brunell and Trent Green are close, but Brady’s CAV/year is a full 4 points higher than theirs, putting him in a class apart. If teams want a good quarterback, they must draft one early.”

"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde

by StroudFanClub on Jan 5, 2012 11:21 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I read it when you posted earlier.

It’s in the same line of reasoning that I have.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 6, 2012 9:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Nope

Only way it would go down.

If you didn't like my last post wait till you read the next! :) Until we draft/acquire franchise QB we'll be setting records for losing soon!

by buffalobacker on Jan 3, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Biggest complaint is WR

You mentioned that you may or may not resign Stevie Johnson, depending on Gailey’s opinion. You also mentioned you’d “look at” Robert Meachem for a speedy outside WR. But other than that, you didn’t really have any action on improving the wide receivers except for drafting Tommy Streeter in your first mock draft.

Knowing the way our franchise works, if you “look at” a free agent, that means you talk to them and then they sign with someone else. Knowing the way our franchise works, if you need both the coach and GM to feel comfortable about a player to bring him back, then that player would be gone.
If you draft Tannehill in the first round, and don’t get any other wide receivers in the draft, we would be stuck with our WR1 being Marcus Easley, who has never played an NFL game. You didn’t mention Roscoe Parrish, so I’d assume he’s gone. That puts us back where we were in the middle of the season – zero depth, a questionable WR1.

I have come around on your thinking that we could use a franchise QB if one is available. But I don’t want to end up depleting a WR corps that is one player away from being great. The first 3 rounds have some amazing prospects at WR. If I am Buddy Nix, I am ORDERING Gailey to resign Stevie unless we find a comparable free agent talent, and I am drafting a WR in the first three rounds to help fill out the top of the corps.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Jan 3, 2012 11:51 PM EST reply actions  

No

Get your QB in first rd. If you so desire than by all means draft a unnecessary WR.

If you didn't like my last post wait till you read the next! :) Until we draft/acquire franchise QB we'll be setting records for losing soon!

by buffalobacker on Jan 4, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Pretty sure we agree

that getting a franchise QB in the first round is a Good Idea.
I’m just concerned that our wide receivers are not as talented as they might appear to be, especially if we lose Stevie. Even though it pains me to see us address the pass rush less, I really think we need to get a WR in the first three rounds of the draft.
Something like
1. QB
2. Pass Rush/WR
3. WR/Pass Rush
would make me very happy.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Jan 4, 2012 12:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Offense wins championships now. QB/WR is VERY important.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

WR's don't make the passing game

QB’s make the passing game.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Together they make awesomesauce.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Is that made out of crushed awesomes?

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Jan 5, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

TWSS

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Jan 5, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Stabilize, Fill And Build

Sounds like blueprint for a house. When this owner gets a clue maybe they’ll follow your ideas, till than hope!

If you didn't like my last post wait till you read the next! :) Until we draft/acquire franchise QB we'll be setting records for losing soon!

by buffalobacker on Jan 4, 2012 12:09 AM EST reply actions  

Dont look for a QB early if at all

I like Tannehill as well, also like Wilson from Wisconsin but Chan & crew are all in with Fitz. Look for them to get him some new weapons, O-linemen depth and resign everone you listed. If we win Chan & Fitz stay & we are all happy. If not, both Chan & Fitz hit the curb and the new regime brings in thier guy in the following draft.

by Gr8dane00 on Jan 4, 2012 12:19 AM EST reply actions  

I don’t see Russell Wilson as starting NFL QB.

by PineWoodsBillsFan on Jan 4, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I like part one a lot.
part two has a couple too many FA targets for my blood. i think if they go after a single legitimate player at one of those positions it would be enough.
part three, between taking a QB (which i think will absolutely not happen), and overdrafting guys like menzie and streeter, not a big fan.
i still like this post because of how important the first part of your plan is. bringing back all or most of those guys would at least represent a shift from the “coach guys up and let them go be good elsewhere while we continue to suck” philosophy.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Jan 4, 2012 8:30 AM EST reply actions  

Tannehill?

Seriously Ryan Tannehill? With the 10th pick in the draft nope.

I’d rather pick up an elite WR (e.g. Blackmon) or pass rusher than pick a second tier QB so high.

by Mindbender14 on Jan 4, 2012 8:36 AM EST reply actions  

who is this elite edge rusher u speak of?
and if u want WR, ur likely picking between floyd and jeffery. blackmons chances of being on the board at 10 are almost non-existent.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Jan 4, 2012 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree, Blackmon as much as everyone here would love to see him fall to us, just not happening. I think if you want Blackmon, you will have to move up to the number 1 pick in the draft. I’m almost willing to bet the Rams are drooling all over this guy to add a weapon for Bradford.

Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67

by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Jan 4, 2012 9:48 AM EST up reply actions  

If i’m the Rams decision-maker, i’m going to need strong persuasion NOT to draft RGIII.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 4, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

so your thinking about trading Bradford then?

Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67

by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Jan 4, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes. Or at least considering the possibility that he’s either not going to be as good as hoped, or remains too injury-prone as a starter.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Which elite pass rusher or WR will be at 10?

Blackmon will be gone.

So you’re saying that you’re not OK with “reaching” for Tannehill, but you’re OK with “reaching” for a WR or edge rusher?

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Which elite pass rusher or WR will be at 10?

Blackmon will be gone.

But at least we beat the Broncos, UGH!

by PineWoodsBillsFan on Jan 4, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Great post but you are missing one HUGE point...

where does the clawed lobster fit in? Middle or Outside Linebacker?

by sfg79 on Jan 4, 2012 9:36 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Outside

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I don’t know if Hightower has elite pass rush speed, but he’s got power and length and the ability to play inside. Hopefully he could provide something on the edge and not be a liability in the run game. Worst case scenario he’s replace Kelsay as SOLB.

Regardless, I’ve always loved this video of him pancaking DJ Fluker (who is no lightweight at RT) in an A-Day spring game.

DJ, assuming we DONT take Tannehill, I’d be interested in a draft that was premised on a later round QB. Is there anyone that falls that you think is raw, but with a few years on the bench could be a legitimate starter? Foles, Keenum, Moore, whatever?

I have low expectations. But high hopes.

by greysquirrel on Jan 4, 2012 10:00 AM EST reply actions  

If I was taking a developmental QB late in the draft, I'd look hard at Mike Glennon of NC State

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

What do you think of Brandon Weeden? I know his footwork leaves something to be desired, but there is a Fitz like quality about him I like. And with a stronger arm to boot.

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd rather go with someone younger

So when he’s ready and Fitzpatrick is the backup, he’ll be in his prime.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I get that. It’s really my only reservation as well. He’s what, 28 right now? And Fitz will be 30? I guess the only senario I see him being a Bill is if we don’t get one high, and he’s available somewhere 5-7th.

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I could get behind him later in the draft

But I think he’s gone by then. I could see a team like San Francisco or the Jets taking him in the 3rd round.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Weedon? High? What’s that you say?

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Where is the Overly Dramatic Firing/Signing/Total Overhaul?!?

Just kidding, nice post DJ.

Like the first part a lot, although there are a couple guys I’d let go on that list. Continuity is very important for a young team, and rewarding players who’ve performed – guys like Urbik, Chandler, Lindell, etc is a good message to send.

I think it would be a tremendous mistake to let Stevie Johnson go. He’s putting up very strong numbers for two straight years, played hurt, produced, and at least publicly is very pro-Buffalo. A 7th round pick who’s turned into a legit #1 WR – no, he’s not Megatron, Fitz, Jennings, Roddy White, but who is – is not someone you can let go with nothing to show for it. I bet there are 10-12 teams who’d love to have someone with his production as their #1 WR. Why not franchise him and see what we can get if Chan really wants to let him go?

Part Two, I also like. Maybe a couple of those guys actually come to BFLO – I’d like Carlson a lot, and it would give us a Pats Lite system that could give us the advantage vs the Jets. Don’t see those corners coming our way, but would also like to go after Spencer just to add speed on the edge.

Part Three, I’m game for. At this point, I think there are so many talent deficiencies that depending on who falls to the Bills, they could draft CB, QB, LB, even OL. The Bills need to add speed – badly – on the outside of the Front 7, and among the WRs on the outside. Unfortunately, unless Kirkpatrick falls to us, I don’t see a CB worth picking at 10. Same with LB – there just isn’t a productive pass rusher who is worth #10. And Blackmon is the only WR worth a Top 10 pick, but he should be gone too. So, it looks like a Martin/Rieff or a QB unless something unusual happens.

I don’t know if Tannehill is the answer, never saw him play, but if their scouts think he’s The Guy, I’ve got no problem drafting him at #10. If there were pass rushers or CBs worth that spot, and we took Tannehill, I’d be out of sorts, but there doesn’t appear to be. Love the Cam Johnson pick and Marcel Jones…wonder if Chase Minnifield’s injury drops him in the draft, would love to pick him up in #3 or later…

by T McGee on Jan 4, 2012 10:01 AM EST reply actions  

If Stevie is let go, I bet Bill Belichick would bring him in. He produces vs. Revis, he’s of the possession variety, and he’s unconventional in his strengths.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 4, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

not at 7.5 million he won't.

YOU ARE OUT of you kuku fufu mine craker laker Flaber baber FUNKI chunki brain. WE want to winn every year -- abayarde

by VanScottM on Jan 4, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

He’d be smart to. That offense is borderline upstoppable now, I can’t imagine it with another guy who gets open on almost every play…A 2 WR set with Welker, Stevie, Gronk, and Hernandez scares the crap out of me.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Jan 4, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

That’s seriously terrifying.

Fatang Fatang.

by NeverendingOptimism on Jan 4, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Bills lose him, I won’t be surprised to see it be the Patriots or Niners who land him.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Can’t imagine what Brady’s stat line would be like with that offense. 6,000 yards and 60 TD’s?

by Munchausen on Jan 4, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure he would. He’d fit in VERY well with the type of offense they run. It’s the reason I think Chad Johnson hasn’t done anything. He’s a downfield guy, like Moss was. Their offense no longer caters to that type of player. Stevie would be the outside version of Welker for them.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I like this FanPost mostly because Der Jaeger goes “out on a limb” explaining his plan. Many posters have comments that never have the specifics, saying “we need [franchise QB/pass rusher etc]”, rather than “these players and these moves are what I would do”.

We will have 80 or so players for the upcoming pre-season. With 53 men on the roster and 15 on IR that’s 68 total, subtract the 2 kickers that’s 66. Nine draft picks and about 5 undrafted players puts you at 80 exactly. Obviously some players will not be retained, and most likely a couple FAs will be added. Re-signing Bills players is the first step. If they under-perform prior to the regular season they can be cut. So resigning them is not a crippling move.

I’m still reviewing the FA lists. If the past is any indication Nix will not pursue the top player at a position but look at the second level.

Until the FA period & combine is completed I feel there is too much unknown to opine on the draft.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jan 4, 2012 10:33 AM EST reply actions  

practice squad.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Jan 4, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Them too. Not everything exact but hopefully you get the gist of my point.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Jan 4, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

thanks

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Sign me up

for Chandler Jones in the second. I like what hes done at Cuse and I want more of the Jones family in my life. Those are some lucky, proud parents. If Chandler the pass rusher is 1/4 of what Jon the fighter is, wed be golden.

by kfisk214 on Jan 4, 2012 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

What additional Jones of theirs should I know about?

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 4, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

three

Arthur – DE/DT Ravens
Jon – “Bones”, Current UFC Champion
Chandler – Current Draft Prospect

by Acera on Jan 4, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Aaah. I don’t follow UFC at all. I saw a Brock fight last year where he got his cheek split wide open. Turned my stomach a bit.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

der jaeger

i love the part one, but you don’t speak about fred jackson
what if we can’t sign any of your FA targets ?
what’s your third draft if we don’t draft a qb and if the part 2 fails?

proud to be a die hard bills fan from france

Resign stevie, chandler and scott, then i will think about april

by le f07 on Jan 4, 2012 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

I don’t see Jackson as a priority in this off-season. Maybe after the draft.

If you can’t sign the free agents, then you keep building through the draft, or get lesser free agents to fill the spot short-term.

I don’t know about another plan. The great part about everyone suggesting WR or edge rusher is that the same critic of Tannehill is the same critic for WR and DE/OLB. Who is worth the 10th pick? I don’t see anyone right now at WR, LT, or OLB/DE worth that pick, that won’t already be taken. Kalil and Martin will be gone, and so will Blackmon.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

to me

who is worth the 10th pick? a starter for our defense, i don’t care if we draft this guy too high.when you look back in draft history, you always find guys who were drafted too high and you found pro-bowlers taken in the 2nd round.so an OLB,a CB or a DE must be our choice not BPA IMO

proud to be a die hard bills fan from france

Resign stevie, chandler, bell and scott, then i will think about april

by le f07 on Jan 4, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

who is worth the 10th pick?

Two answers: BPA or franchise QB

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

the bills won’t draft a qb, maybe we want a new one( at least a better one) but buddy and chan won’t change their point of view,fitz is their man.
go BPA, yes only for a DE, an OLB or a CB.if the BPA is a NT or a RB, we don’t care is they’ll become pro-bowlers.
we must fill one of these 3 needs by going BPA

proud to be a die hard bills fan from france

Resign stevie, chandler, bell and scott, then i will think about april

by le f07 on Jan 5, 2012 6:57 AM EST up reply actions  

That’s exactly how you end up with Donte Whitners instead of Haloi Ngatas. You reach for a guy because he’s supposedly an instant ‘starter’. Meanwhile, all you’ve done is set your franchise back because you could have had a multi year pro bowler playing with a hidden gem like George Wilson manning the very spot you thought ‘had to be replaced’.

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Take the BPA available. The only player I could agree with reaching for is a franchise QB. I had no issue whatsoever with Minnesota reaching for Ponder.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's my gameplan

1. Sign a pass-rushing LB in free agency. While Mario Williams would be the best option, he’s unlikely to come here unless we completely bust open the piggy bank. Spencer would probably be a good target.

2. Sign Stevie – just get it done – hopefully for just a shade under 7.5 million

3. I think we lose Bell to FA – he’s going to be the most sought after FA at the critical LT position. Several teams are willing to overpay for him. The other guys are depth players – my first priorities amongst them would be Urbik, Rienhart and Chandler to keep the offense as intact as possible.

4. 1st round pick would ideally be a solid LT, if not BPA between WR, ILB or OLB. Reiff would probably be available at 10.

5. 2nd / 3rd rounds would be heavy on defensive players – either DE, CB or LB. 4th round take a flyer on a big fast WR.

6. In later rounds, get guards that could provide servicable O-Line depth and project players.

7. Pick up a couple of kickers through UDFA and give them a legit shot at winning the job from Lindell/Moorman in preseason.

by NoiseIsTheBestRevenge on Jan 4, 2012 11:58 AM EST reply actions  

what i like the most about this

is that its realistic. you don’t have some “Madden” plan where we trade for Aaron Rodgers and bring in the best FA possible at every position.

That said, I’m still not sold on Tannehill as a 10th overall pick, maybe he is worth it, that is just going to be a wait and see for me as i learn more about him. As a Syracuse fan, and as much as i like Chandler Jones, 2nd round seems awfully high when he’s someone currently projected as a 3rd/4th rd guy

by Acera on Jan 4, 2012 1:05 PM EST reply actions  

I think Jones will test well and 2nd round will be about right

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks, BTW

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Like the plan DJ

Two questions I have:
1. Tannehill – I really see him rising the boards from here until April, much like Blaine Gabbert did last year, do you think he will still be available at #10 or do you see a team like Washington or Miami making a move on him if Indy take Luck and the Colts/Bucs take RGIII?

2. With Wannstadt now in charge of the defense will we see more 4-3 fronts and does that open players like Sam Montgomery or Brandon Jenkins to the 2nd round choice – also I predict Mercilus could fall to #41 especially if QB’s, CB’s, OT’s and LB’s go above their board position due to need picks which might save having to trade to go get him.

Check out http://mocknfldrafts.blogspot.com/

by Billsdownunder on Jan 4, 2012 1:55 PM EST reply actions  

I hope Tannehill is still available

I’d rather take Mercilus instead of Jenkins. Mercilus can anchor.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

if montgomery comes, there is absolutely no chance hes on the board in the second round.
hed very likely be the top pass rusher taken in the 2012 draft

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Jan 4, 2012 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I like just about everything in the plan

Couldn’t agree more with this. It’s a terrific plan and I very much hope OBD follows it. About the only thing I would do differently is skip the 4th round CB if we acquire Aaron Ross in FA and go with another DE/OLB instead. You never know how those guys are going to work out, especially in the middle rounds, so why not stack them up and see who is the best? But that’s a minor cavil.

I hope your paper is as good as your offseason plan for the Bills; if it is, it must be extraordinary! (By the way, where are you geting your M.A. and in what area?)

by Macktruck on Jan 4, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe

Maybe load up with another edge guy like Malik Jackson. I also don’t think a team can have too many good CB’s. I’m not worried about the UFA, Williams or Rogers. I’m terrified by having to choose between McKelvin and Florence as the dime CB.

Shoot you an e-mail with the rest. Thanks for asking.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Its simple

OUR FIRST 3 DRAFT PICKS NEED TO BE 2 ELIETE PASS RUSHERS AND A BIG FAST WR! WITH A GREAT PASS RUSH IT MAKES OUR DBS BETTER! Look at the giants they invest in what 3 to 4 great pass rushers (tuck, pierre paul, uminyoua) not to mention (canty and kiwanuka) those are all good pass rushers and they consisntly put pressure on the qb which forces them into bad decisions which makes the whole defence better! IT STARTS UP FRONT! If we go back to a 4-3 i would spend our top 2 picks to get a whitney marcelus to play one DE spot and a Vinny curry to play the other and rotate ghem with kelsey and merriman! then in the 3rd get a WR like Sanu from rutgers if hes still there or Toon from wisconsin

Ay Ay Ay Ayyyyy

by BuffaloBillsBigestFan on Jan 4, 2012 3:01 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

North Carolina Plan?

Round 1) Quinten Coples———- DE
Round 2) Kevin Reddick————- OLB
Round 3) Dwight Jones————— WR

by flutieflakes007 on Jan 4, 2012 3:27 PM EST reply actions  

oops nvm reddick is actually returning next year. But you could sub him for Ronnie Lewis i guess.. but then I guess it wouldn’t be called the North Carolina Plan… :/

by flutieflakes007 on Jan 4, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Careful what you ask for

Coples is a huge boom or bust pick. I wouldn’t touch him with his current lack of tough, interested play.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too……….. no way. We cannot screw this pick up.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 4, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree

Teams like Baltimore with developed internal cultures can take on guys like Coples. Buffalo is still developing that culture, and they aren’t ready to take on a guy like Coples. Nor do they have a Ray Lewis type that motivates his teammates. Though I think Dareus develops into that type of player eventually.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

If we resign Johnson (which i hope we do)...

I would draft Ingram,SC, because I think he could fit in both 4-3 and 3-4. But if not we should take Floyd, ND. or we could get M. Kiwanuka, V. Jackson or Malcom Floyd in Free Agency.

by P2C5S on Jan 4, 2012 4:10 PM EST reply actions  

Great write up but bad scouting and bad draft strategy

A QB drafted in the first round can’t afford to sit and learn unless that team is 1) winning and 2) has a seasoned veteran to show him the ropes. Fitz has the latter skill but not the first. If we draft a player that high we expect to use that player. We don’t have the luxury to bench them and let them learn the game.

In addition, I think taking Tannehill in the first would be reaching: he’s Jimmy Clausen good but without the attitude and the sense of entitlement. If he’s there in the 2nd I think we should take him simply because we do need more depth at QB. But taking him in the first and blowing a 1st rounder on a mediocre college talent isn’t wise given we need too much help on defense.

The only thing on Gailey and Nix’s minds should be defense, defense, defense!!!

by christopher.j on Jan 4, 2012 6:40 PM EST reply actions  

I watched many Clausen games and do not see one similarity in their games. Not one. Not sure why you chose him as a comparison. Care to expound?

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m asking you give reason to stating Tannehill is ‘Jimmy Clausen good’. What does that mean? Have you watched Tannehill play? What makes them comparable in your eyes?

Was none of that obvious in my question?

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Jimmy Clausen Good

Like a pickle! Get it? Clausen pickles? Or is it Vlasic pickles? Great!

If you didn't like my last post wait till you read the next! :) Until we draft/acquire franchise QB we'll be setting records for losing soon!

by buffalobacker on Jan 4, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

No your question wasn't obvious but I'll expand for you

I have seen both play (in Tannehill’s case as both a QB and a WR) but from what I’ve seen is you have a decent college QB who is getting the usual draft buzz that comes from the bowl game series and NFL playoffs. Tannehill is a decent QB who hasn’t really proven himself considering he has only started 7 games over three years in the QB position. Is he good? Yeah he’s good but he needs work: the same as Clausen did.

As for how they are the same: both are accurate, have good arm strength and a good work ethic (albeit Clausen was said to be a “punk” by Steve Smith) but even a punk can work hard. Even on paper, their stats are pretty similar (you have to extrapolate Tannehill’s because he was a WR earlier in the season) but similar nonetheless.

You may (and probably do) disagree with what I am saying but Tannehill isn’t top 10 worthy IMO. He is a development QB that a team like New England or Pittsburgh can afford to take in the later rounds

by christopher.j on Jan 5, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Cam Newton wasn’t even a known commodity until his senior season. I’m not sold on Tannehill yet, but i’d rather the Bills draft him at 10 than anyone else not named Luck or Griffin.

Please Buffalo, draft a QB!

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

A QB drafted in the first round can’t afford to sit and learn unless that team is 1) winning and 2) has a seasoned veteran to show him the ropes.

What facts do you have to back that opinion? Do you have examples of QB’s that sat on bad teams and played poorly once they entered the lineup?

How much did Brett Favre teach Aaron Rodgers? How much did Montana teach Young?

You say bad scouting? I can’t think of a worse comparison than the one you just made between Tannehill and Clausen. Tannehill is significantly bigger with natural arm strength. Tannehill ran a west coast offense, Clausen ran Weis’ Erhardt-Perkins offense. Tannehill has natural leadership skills that Clausen doesn’t have. Tannehill has much beter pocket presence.

I’ve seen comparisons between Tannehill and Eli Manning and Rivers, with some valid points. The only similarities between Tannehill and Clausen are their accuracy, and the fact they both play quarterback.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Tannehill has much beter pocket presence.

That’s an understatement if I ever saw one. You must be in a nice mood DJ to be so kind to Clausen.

by DJ O on Jan 4, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Didn’t Carson Palmer sit behind Kitna for a year? That wasn’t a very good team, nor a very good QB. Palmer did well until injury and being a Bengal sucked the life out of him.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve always felt bad for Palmer. He looked like he was becoming elite-level when he got injured in the playoffs that year. Now, he’s a shell of his former self.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Jan 5, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Great post DJ. Rec'd.

Liked the article. Didn’t love all of the draft picks.
But who cares, we need to improve, this year, NOW!

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Jan 4, 2012 8:42 PM EST reply actions  

Just look at the stats...
What facts do you have to back that opinion? Do you have examples of QB’s that sat on bad teams and played poorly once they entered the lineup?

To my knowledge there are NO QBs that sat on poor teams and, after sitting on a poor team played poorly because no team, with a mediocre QB who is floundering, has left their first rounder ride the pine. I guess if you know some examples feel free to share them with me and I’ll eat my words. However, pragmatically looking at what you are asking and using, at least, my own logic, it makes no perspective: you have your FRANCHISE player waiting in the wings while your team is bombing??? Even the Broncos realized they couldn’t keep a first rounder on the bench while the team struggled. Yeah they had some success with Tebow at the helm but they never beat a team with a winning record and dropped their last three once the tape on Tebow came into focus.

Tannehill is significantly bigger with natural arm strength.

Really? Tannehill is 6-4 222 lbs and Clausen was 6-3 223 his last year at Notre Dame so I don’t see that as significant. Additonally, Clausen was predicated by many to go in the Top 1-5 range for players in the draft and was considered by some to be the second best QB after Bradford. Additinally, Tannehill’s comparisons to Eli Manning and Rivers seem premature given he hasn’t gone through the combine Hell, prior to the combine CBS sports compared Clausen to Aaron Rogers!!!

by christopher.j on Jan 4, 2012 9:40 PM EST reply actions  

You’re affirming the consequent.

No highly drafted QB’s sat on poor teams. Therefore poor teams play their highly drafted QB’s. Do they? Aaron Rodgers sat on 4-12 and 8-8 Packer teams. Carson Palmer sat for a full year.

Besides, what’s to say Buffalo is terrible next year? San Diego had the top pick in 2004 and went 12-4 the next season.

Clausen was measured in at 6-2 at the combine. Tannehill is listed at over 6-4.

You can discount the comparisons, but other than accuracy, what other traits do they share?

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 4, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

not affirming the consequence but affirming the the obvious

Rogers was the 24th pick in the draft so claiming he was highly drafted is a bit of a stretch although he was drafted one spot before Jason Campbell (another of the many first round QB success stories!!!). And yes Rogers played on a 4-12 team but you have to take that team into context: they had lost most of their starters to either free agency, trade or injury so they were just the shell of their former successful selves. But using Rogers in this comparison is misleading: for one thing they had Brett Favre as their QB and were coming off a decade of success. They could afford to mentor a rookie QB because they had a team of perennial pro-bowlers and a future hall of famer at the helm. This is something Buffalo doesn’t have.

We can’t afford to play “wait and see” with a guy who may or may not make it. This doesn’t mean I think Tannehill is a bad QB; he just isn’t worth a top 10 pick from a team who has bigger holes that need plugging. If he’s their in Round 2, and he is the best talent on the board, I think he is worth a hard look but, again, would like to see our defense get stacked than draft a player who’s main objective is to sit-and-learn.

And you are right, we don’t know if Buffalo will have a bad season or (if they do draft a QB) that, that QB won’t be able to lead them back to divisional supremacy. However, I’m looking at the pros and cons of where we sit on the draft board and the talent that will be there once the two best QB’s are picked off. I don’t think making a run at QB at that point would be wise considering the talent that will be left on the board for positions that we need to fix. Again, it is a timing issue. We haven’t achieved the standing where we can afford to a take a risk on players in the hope they pan out. We need to take what can benefit the team now.

by christopher.j on Jan 4, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

We can’t afford to play "wait and see" with a guy who may or may not make it. This doesn’t mean I think Tannehill is a bad QB

What else is there to do? There’s no such thing as “reaching” if he turns out to be a franchise guy.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Jan 4, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

high risk is high reward

I can’t argue with that. But what if he turns out to be a Marcus Russell or JP Losman? Would you consider that is a possibility?

by christopher.j on Jan 4, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, it’s of course a possibility. But if you don’t play the lottery, you can’t win at all. Der Jaeger went through and looked at the last 20 drafts or so at how many QBs were successes from each rounds. Something like 60% of first rounders pan out, 20% of second rounders, and then it goes down to 13%, etc. Taking a QB in the first round is almost imperative if you’re going after a franchise guy.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Jan 5, 2012 12:53 AM EST up reply actions  

"Taking a QB in the first round is almost imperative if you’re going after a franchise guy."

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/drafting-quarterbacks/

Correct.

"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde

by StroudFanClub on Jan 5, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Word

Fact, High Five, Special handshake insert here*. Get a friggin QB or at least make the effort, heck I’ll fly out from Seattle to deliver the "Bill’s pick, Blah, Blah QB form Blah, Blah. Firat Rd, i forgot, Damn jinx!!

If you didn't like my last post wait till you read the next! :) Until we draft/acquire franchise QB we'll be setting records for losing soon!

by buffalobacker on Jan 4, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I like your approach :-)

by christopher.j on Jan 4, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You're changing the argument

Young QB’s do sometimes sit behind starters on poor rosters. Palmer is an example. You can’t place parameters on draft choices to make your argument. Rodgers was a potential top pick but fell in 2005.

Why can’t Buffalo play wait and see? If it ends with a franchise QB, it’s worth it.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Jan 5, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly. Maybin was a need player…and one they hoped would be full time. He seldom played and they passed over other great talent as a result. Same with Spiller. A guy they felt would contribute heavily, yet someone the coach can’t seem to find excuses to play when Jackson is healthy.

A great player isn’t always great from day one. They’re great year after year, and better as time goes on. Learning is an important trait to NFL success.

"Go check on the ribs!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Jan 5, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Kinda Like Your Plan

Like most, I think re-signing key players is vital if the Bills are ever going to end their playoff drought. Although some have criticized it, I agree completely with your assessment on Stevie. I’d love to see him back in a Bills uniform, BUT not if he continues to ignore the coaches.
I like how agressive you would be in the FA market. If those things panned out to address some areas before the draft then I could see being able to use a high draft pick for a potential franchise QB. With that said though, I’m not terribly confident that the Bills will be active enough in FA to justify using the first round pick on Tannehill when they really need help on the pass rush, an area I’m not sold your plan addresses as much as is needed—it hits it, but I’m convinced the pass rush needs to be this off season’s #1 priority.

by jcey on Jan 6, 2012 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

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