Hypothetical: Buffalo Bills' Transition To A 4-3 Defense
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 9:45 AM EST
in Buffalo Bills Opinion
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If the Buffalo Bills transition to Dave Wannstedt's version of the 4-3 defense, what does that mean for the current personnel? It's always easier to transition from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense than vice versa. Many of the players needed in a 3-4 are specialists for that defense. The nose tackle is the foremost example. Vince Wilfork, a true space-eating nose tackle in a 3-4 defense, can easily transition to playing defensive tackle in a 4-3. The reverse isn't always true. Rocky Bernard can't play nose tackle.
In the same way, 3-4 defensive ends transition to defensive tackle or left end. The 3-4 outside linebackers transition to either 4-3 end position. The weak-side inside linebacker in a 3-4 can transition to the middle or strong-side linebacker position in a 4-3, or maybe even the weak-side outside linebacker position if the linebacker is fluid enough. The strong-side inside linebacker in a 3-4 makes the same transition as the weak-side inside linebacker. The only position not filled by 3-4 personnel is the one specialized position in the 4-3: the smaller outside linebacker position.
How would Buffalo's current defensive personnel fare in the transition? Better than you think. With the exception of some later-round picks and low-end free agents, everyone's got a home in a 4-3. After the jump, we'll look at how Buffalo's depth chart might change with a change to Wannstedt's 4-3.
Buffalo's 3-4 Depth Chart
This depth chart is "close enough" to work with. It's got everyone in their spots from the past season, except Spencer Johnson. I listed Johnson at his more natural defensive end position.
Buffalo's 4-3 Depth Chart
If Buffalo transitions to Wannstedt's preferred version of the 4-3, the Sam outside linebacker will play off the ball most of the time, flowing to the football. Everyone that's important in the current defense has a natural fit in the 4-3. Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Torell Troup play more like 4-3 defensive tackles regardless, so the transition just codifies what they do already. Dwan Edwards is a stout 3-4 end, and he makes the transition to 4-3 end, providing good depth at defensive tackle. Johnson moves back to his more natural tackle position.
At left end, Buffalo has a decent platoon in Alex Carrington and Chris Kelsay. Carrington was tried at outside linebacker during training camp, and has the movement skills to play left end, particularly in conventional sets. Kelsay can replace him on passing downs. Jarron Gilbert provides depth.
Right end continues to be the problem that the Jack outside linebacker was in the 3-4. If Shawne Merriman is healthy, he's a force at this position. If not, Buffalo's left with Kyle Moore. Arthur Moats can replace him on passing downs. If Merriman isn't ready, the Moore-Moats tandum is less than inspiring. Right end replaces Jack outside linebacker as Buffalo's most pressing need.
Nick Barnett is a rare 3-4 inside linebacker that can make the transition to 4-3 weak-side linebacker. Chris White is an adequate short term back-up whose best position is middle linebacker or even strong-side linebacker in a 4-3. Kelvin Sheppard will see fewer blocks as the middle linebacker, and that plays to his strength. Danny Batten is not a good fit at strong-side outside linebacker. Bryan Scott might be better in terms of flowing to the football, but his lack of size for the position is a weakness.
Implications
In the 3-4, Buffalo had serious pass rush concerns, and needed to fill the Jack outside linebacker position. Buffalo needed an upgrade at Sam outside linebacker, and depth at end and inside linebacker. In the 4-3, Buffalo's most pressing need is someone to rush the quarterback, particularly from right end. Left end isn't the pressing need that the 3-4 Sam position was due to Carrington's potential shift. Depth at both defensive tackle positions and left end are excellent, and should allow Wannstedt to use the same wave concept he used in Dallas. The only pressing need that the transition opens up is at strong-side linebacker. Buffalo can platoon Batten and White there now, with Scott coming in on passing downs.
The biggest concern is that in terms of learning a system, it can be said that two years have been wasted. Chan Gailey couldn't have known that George Edwards' system wouldn't work when they hired him. The logic was actually to the reverse: that the NFL had moved to the 3-4, and Buffalo was getting with the times.
In terms of personnel, not much organizational energy has been wasted. Buffalo's most valued draft picks brought in defenders like Dareus, Troup, Carrington, and Sheppard. All four are good 4-3 fits. Free agents like Barnett and Edwards are also good fits. The shift may leave Moats and Batten without a position, but Buffalo shouldn't hesitate to transition because a couple of sixth-round picks won't be good fits. There's no guarantee that Merriman will be healthy, and even if he is, he can contribute at right end and as a situational pass rusher.
The move might position Buffalo to land some of the best free agent pass rushers. Mario Williams and Cliff Avril are natural 4-3 ends, and Buffalo's transition makes them more attractive to both. Think either wouldn't love to play next to Williams and Dareus? Avril saw exactly what playing next to Ndamukong Suh does for a sack total. Williams might want to get back to playing his natural defensive end position instead of outside linebacker.
If Buffalo does indeed transition to Wannstedt's traditional 4-3 defense, it does open up a hole at linebacker, but creates depth at defensive tackle and left end. The pass rushing need at right end isn't new. It's the same need that Buffalo had at Jack outside linebacker in the 3-4. All the defensive front seven personnel that Buffalo invested high draft picks in fit the 4-3. Most of the high dollar free agents fit the 4-3. Buffalo makes itself more viable to free agent pass rushers that desire to play in a 4-3. There's a lot more upside to this move than downside.
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Sam LB
If we get a good Sam LB from FA or the draft, then this is a front 7 that starts to look okay to me (in the 4-3 alignment). I prefer 4 men down anyway, and am excited to see what Williams and Dareus can do next to one another in their more natural positions.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Nice
Like a lot of people are saying, I don’t think it matters since half of the time we were lined up in the nickle with four down lineman. Bottom line is we need to find a pass rush at either the OLB position or the DE position.
I think the decision will be based a lot on who we take. If we take Coples, who looks more like a 4-3 DE, we can assume we may shift towards a 4-3. If we take a solid OLB like Upshaw I think you will see us work more towards the 3-4. I am just happy that the front looks solid no matter what we would play. Dareus and Williams are very versatile.
Great write up rec'd
This was a good read. I was never high on Moats anyways. He is a marginal pass rusher who has no run contain ability at all, at least up to this point. He might be better in this new scheme.
As for 2 years being wasted, I don’t see it that way. They tried something and instead of continuing to pound a square peg into a round hole, they decided to get out the round peg instead. Good coaching is having the flexibility to run the strength of what you have, not what you want them to be. I was very impressed with Denver’s coach for what he did to commit to Tebow. I am not sure any other coach, even Chan, makes such a drastic change that would allow any one player to succeed. DW is doing what is best for the team. I think we should get behind him and enjoy this next phase of our team.
I think Moats is actually pretty good. I think he would be a good LB in a 4-3. He is small for a 3-4. He was coming around pretty nicely before we transitioned into a 3-4. I think he will develop into a good backer one day probably for another team though as we will probably dump him. I was real high on him before the switch
Oh, one more thing
Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus and Torell Troup play more like 4-3 defensive tackles regardless, so the transition just codifies what they do already
That is the greatest use of codify that I have ever seen!!
Awesome write up, thanks. Quick question, i think Coples is the ideal pick for us, assuming we don’t get Mario or Avril. But, let’s say we don’t get any of those three….who in the draft do you see able to fill that RDE? And Upshaw is such a popular selection for us in mocks, where would he fit in the 4-3 for us? He seems to short for the DE spot.
by CBATL32 on Jan 30, 2012 10:26 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Poz....
If the BB transition back to a 4-3, I wonder what Poz will be saying to himself…since the transition to the 3-4 was the reason he gave for leaving Buffalo.
If it were me I would think “well at least the weather is better down here in Jacksonville.”
1964 and 1965 League Champions, and don't you forget it!
Favorite Fitzpatrick Related Press: "Somehow turned graduating from Harvard and excelling in his career into a surprising succes story" The Onion
it was always about the money…. the transition is just some face saving tactic for fans
by statcruncher on Jan 30, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
And really, who cares. He does in Jax exactly what he did in Buffalo. Solid player, makes a ton of tackles, liability in coverage, does nothing elite, and makes no game changing plays. Im much happier with Barnett (as long as he stays healthy).
"That's why you keep playing, gentlemen"
-Chan Gailey-
by Eric Murawski on Jan 30, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree, I think the scheme was a big part of it. It’s not like he was leaving for a playoff-caliber team, and we were giving him a big pay raise. He didn’t want to stay in Buffalo, and the scheme had something to do with it.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
From what I remember nix matched the jag offer and he went jags.
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Jan 30, 2012 1:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think so. The Jags paid him a contract that averages $6-7M per year. I just can’t fathom Nix even thinking about that contract for a guy that isn’t elite.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
Poz is a middle linebacker though. Fitzpatrick got an average QB’s salary because he’s an average QB. Kelsay’s was high – no doubt about it – but at least he’s been healthy and contributing.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
Honestly, I can’t understand the ferocity of the complaining about Kelsay’s contract. He’s healthy. He contributes. He’s a good run defender when put in a position to succeed (i.e. as an end). He’s a great leader. There are a lot worse ways to have spent the money (such as on a wildcat QB3).
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
@Matthew62
No. The Jags offered Poz a lot more money than the Bills were going to pay him and he took the money. Nix never matched any offer from Jville that I read about anywhere.
Reports were that it was less years and money...
http://wgr550.com/pages/10464786.php?
1964 and 1965 League Champions, and don't you forget it!
Favorite Fitzpatrick Related Press: "Somehow turned graduating from Harvard and excelling in his career into a surprising succes story" The Onion
I think there is a large benefit in going this way. I suppose that we won’t know the direction they’re heading until free agency opens up, maybe not until the draft. It would be great if they could grab a pass rusher in free agency as that would really open up their draft options. Right now, they’re just about forced into taking the best pass rusher available.
by SiriusRed on Jan 30, 2012 11:07 AM EST via mobile reply actions
43 or 34...Who cares
I really dont care what scheme the Bills play (so long as it is not the Tampa 2 version). What I care about is a better D. And lets face it, for the Bills the scheme (no matter what it is) isnt the problem. The problem is, and always has been, the Bills lack of pash rushing talent. Not since Schobel hung it up have teams needed to worry about someone getting to the QB.
In my opinion, pass rushers help out he secondary for 2 reasons. One, it cuts down on the amount of time that you need to cover, and so receivers cant run around all day, breaking this way and that, until they uncover. The second, and often under looked aspect is the amount of players in routes. When you have a terror of a pass rush, the RB has to chip, the TE has to stay inline, etc. and all of this keeps those players from getting into their pattern and exposing the LB and S.
Once Buffalo fixes the pass rush (finally) I think we will see everyone on the D get better because they will be exposed less.
"That's why you keep playing, gentlemen"
-Chan Gailey-
Everyone understands that Buffalo needs pass rushers
The point of the article is to articulate what an alignment shift might do to the depth chart.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I guess this was more a preemptive post to the obligatory “OMG the Bills are screwed because we are going back to the 43 and everyone will need to be replaced” post that has permeated almost every defensive article. I guess my point is that it doesnt matter the alignment, the problems are still problems.
"That's why you keep playing, gentlemen"
-Chan Gailey-
by Eric Murawski on Jan 30, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure you’ll get many arguments that the transition to a 4-3 will be o.k. based off of our roster.
My issue has been and will be the flip flopping. You say that guys like Batten and Moats don’t matter but they’ve also drafted Troup and Carrington to be 3-4 players and brought guys in like Davis, Edwards Torbor for 4-3 tutelage.
The issue is that those resources could be used else where. If Buddy wasn’t bent on getting a zero in 2010 then would we have gotten Troup or Gronk/hernandez type of player? Same for Carrington. Instead of going after Batten/Moats would we have used those picks on positions that would have increased depth and competition at spots that needed that instead of starters?
Instead of getting Edwards, Davis, Torbor etc… would we have went after a stud player instead of bringing in guys so we can teach guys we just drafted? Did bringing those guys in hinder us from signing an impact FA just because we wanted to switch schemes?
I think the Bills right now are better set for a 43, but that only means that Buddy failed at his attempt to build a 34 while directly hurting the roster in the process. If we would have stayed a 43 then how many more resources would we have needed in order to change to a different style of 43? Would we have wasted time and resources on bringing those guys mentioned in? You bet we wouldn’t have and we would be much better off as a team but yet we’re stuck again with a crappy roster on a crappy team run by crappy coaches and front office types that can’t figure out what to do and how to do it.
I’m not sure Troup as a DT is with a 2nd round pick – I almost guarantee it’s not. What about Carrington as a LDE – I actually like him there but is that a sound investment? Probably is actually – I like him there.
There’s so much wrong with how the Bills have handled this and unfortunately for us fans we’re stuck with the junk product on the field.
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 30, 2012 12:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
You act as if picking up players in free agency is as simple as shopping at Wal-Mart. You can’t simply pick up studs at every position because there just aren’t that many out there… and when there are some, you’re competing with a lot of other teams who probably have brighter playoff prospects, a nicer city (night life, weather, etc), and more willingness to open up the checkbook and write a large number.
Every team misses on draft picks. History is full of draft busts. But I still wouldn’t be so quick to write off Troup and Carrington. Troup has been injured for most of the two seasons, and Carrington has showed some ability to make big plays this year. He just needs to do it on a more consistent basis. Also, as the article points out, both of these guys would fit in well with a 4-3 alignment. The point is that 3-4 guys are more likely to fit in well with a 4-3 that 4-3 guys trying to fit in a 3-4.
by SiriusRed on Jan 30, 2012 12:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You act as if picking up players in free agency is as simple as shopping at Wal-Mart
how did you even remotely get that out of what I said?
Regardless, it’s not so much that I think we’d get whoever we wanted it’s that we would actually attempt to go out and acquire those guys. Did we even attempt to bring in a FA that would actually improve the team? No – we went after guys that could help by teaching younger guys to play in the 34.
Are you telling me that you think the Bills would have brought in crappy or injured FA in order to transition and teach a scheme that is already being played by everyone on the roster?
Do you honestly think the Bills haven’t been hurt by the flip flopping between a 34 and a 43?
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 30, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with DJ that the switch back to the 4-3 will be painless.
I also think your point is valid. The fact that we are two years into the switch and players are better suited for the 4-3 then the 3-4 is a failure at some level. Players that were drafted and picked up in FA by this team to play the 3-4 might be able to find homes in the 4-3, but we very well could have been better off and might have made better acqusitions if we had stayed with the 4-3 from the start.
With all that being said, I am not going to cry about it. The fact is that considering the players on the team right now, the new DC, the players that are going to be available in FA, and the draft this offseason, this team is better suited for the 4-3. Also in the grand scheem of things if this team resigns our FA, picks up a quality RDE and #2 WR in FA and has a good draft this team will be a playoff contender in year three of the rebuild. I am OK with that.
GO BILLS!!!!
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
I think they were hurt more by a defensive coordinator who wasn’t qualified to do the job.
by SiriusRed on Jan 30, 2012 2:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
but it was Chan and Buddy that was o.k. with hiring a 34 coach and going to a 34. It was them that brought in crappy veteran free agents to teach young draftees, it was them that drafted 34 players and tried to install a 34 scheme behind their crappy defensive coach.
They are the ones that okay’d the plan yet they get vilified because Edwards couldn’t do his job? Yet Nix failed to bring in good players and Chan has shown his personnel decisions can range from awful to o.k.
So what was the plan for Edwards then? Was there a plan?
The plan was to install a 34 yet when that failed they hired a friend in Wannstedt. In doing that and not looking anywhere they literally wasted 2 years of building a 43 defense. Instead of switching, something they endorsed, they could have continued to build upon what was there in the 43 instead of blowing the whole thing up.
Outside of Dareus we’re in almost the same exact position we were 2 years ago. If they would have stuck with a 43 don’t you think we’d be in somewhat better shape given that they would have had 2 drafts and FA to acquire 43 talent? I can’t help but think the Troup pick, which is amazing, is going to end up worse than most people thought after 2 years. If Buddy didn’t need a zero they could have had Gronkowski who went 1 pick after him when TE was still a major need. That right there shows you how Buddy has screwed the pooch.
This just screams of no plan to me because they ditched it after 2 years because why? Because of a lousy coach? They couldn’t have interviewed any other candidates that had 34 experience? Nix and Gailey are in over their heads and we have to sit here and watch this ship burn to the bottom of the sea with no life preservers.
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 30, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
recd
i want to highlight and add to each and every paragraph, but I won’t do that to others. I will simply rec it, say that i agree 100 million billion trillion percent… and point out that the best point of this is:
but it was Chan and Buddy that was o.k. with hiring a 34 coach and going to a 34. It was them that brought in crappy veteran free agents to teach young draftees, it was them that drafted 34 players and tried to install a 34 scheme behind their crappy defensive coach.
They are the ones that okay’d the plan yet they get vilified because Edwards couldn’t do his job?
This just screams of no plan to me because they ditched it after 2 years because why? Because of a lousy coach? They couldn’t have interviewed any other candidates that had 34 experience? Nix and Gailey are in over their heads and we have to sit here and watch this ship burn to the bottom of the sea with no life preservers.
Idk if i am quite ready to go this far…. but, that it certainly at very least implies a “fly by the seat of our pants” type running of a multi-million dollar business in a multi-billion dollar industry. They deserve all of the scrutiny we can muster, based solely on this fact.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
You're playing a massive "what if" game based on perfect hindsight
When Nix and Gailey took over, they transitioned to the 3-4 because it was trending in the league, and was a good way to stop passing offenses. They hired George Edwards to run the defense, who had Marvin Lewis teach him the 4-3 and 46, and he learned the 3-4 in Miami. Nix went and got players that fit.
Unfortunately, it didn’t work. Edwards and the players couldn’t make it work, and kudos to Gailey for recognizing this situation and making the switch. My trends article around Christmas time argued that the league was going back to a 4-3 anyway, with the counter trend being lead by 3-4 diehard Bill Belichick.
None of the players that matter are bad fits. Troup is a zero, but so was Pat Williams, and he moved to a 4-3. And which free agents was Nix going to sign in 2010? He said that he wasn’t going to sign free agents except to fill short term needs while the team was building. Who did Buffalo miss out on? Jimmy Kennedy?
You’re attacking a cascading system that is the playing personnel system of free agency and the draft, and doing so with perfect hindsight. Go back to 2010 and show me who thought this move was a bad idea with the information that was available at the time.
J2, you know that I respect you’re opinion, but I just can’t get behind this argument, or even agree to any of it. It’s defeatist.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
with the counter trend being lead by 3-4 diehard Bill Belichick.
They lined up in 43 most of this season.
That guy recognizes that sometimes changes are necessary. Maybe that is what Chan/Buddy are thinking. But, without significant improvement, they are going to be questioned for this change, primarily because it is a complete deviation from their original claims/intentions.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I mean
If Belichick scrapped the 3-4 after 30+ years and five Super Bowls, something’s changing in the league.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
no doubt.
But that doesn’t mean it is the best solution, or the best solution for us. Wade Phillips found mad success with that Texans roster. Squeezed more out of that 34, then they ever did in the 43, and that was when Mario was healthy, and this year, he wasn’t even on the field.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
That's a bad comparison
Phillips, for however bad of a head coach, is an absolute genius putting together, coaching and training a one-gap 3-4 defense. He basically invented it when he coached in Denver. Guys that invent stuff that works tend to be good at it overall.
That’s how a guy like Dick LeBeau continued with Pittsburgh’s 3-4 for the past 20 years even when the rest of the league went 4-3 in the 90’s. He was so good, and invented the defense, that he made it work. Only one other team played the 3-4 at that time, and it was Phillips’ Buffalo teams.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
i disagree
it is a perfectly fine comparison.
I am picking, one of 32 defensive coordinators in the league, of which Dave Wannstedt is also included, and therefore in direct comparison. I can compare him to any of these guys, because apparently, he was such a no-brainer, that no other qualified candidate even need be considered.
Guys that invent stuff that works tend to be good at it overall.
No doubt. Now you see what we can DREAM FOR… and maybe that doesn’t mean that DW can’t do a good/above average/great job. But to just assume it, when he has really never done much of anything but ride coattails? That is questionable, at very least.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's not the original argument
You said:
But that doesn’t mean it is the best solution, or the best solution for us. Wade Phillips found mad success with that Texans roster.
I agree that it might not be the best solution. But using Phillips as an example of a coach that got a 3-4 to work is a bad comparison. I’m certain that Phillips could get any group of random defensive players to work. He’s a defensive genius, and every defense he coaches is great.
I can agree that shifting to the 4-3 might not work.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But using Phillips as an example of a coach that got a 3-4 to work is a bad comparison.
then you are seeing a different point than I am making.
Bellichik changed schemes- this means it is acceptable(that is the point you seem to be implying as your original argument)
Bellichik changed schemes- this means that drawing comparisons with him, is ok, but siting a similar example like, wade phillips isn’t. This based off of… only your opinion. This is dismissive.
Also: it is also completely logical to draw comparisons between hiring practices, and job responsibilities, in a given industry. Company’s do it all of the time. They compare themselves to other businesses that are successful in their given industry, and the best way to compare, is by taking a sample, including(and especially) people that do the same jobs.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
It's not dismissive
I’m not comparing Wannstedt to Belichick.
My argument is that Belichick went 4-3 after 30+ years and 5 Super Bowls with the 3-4. Why? That’s doesn’t mean it’s automatically going to work for Buffalo. In my article, I thought that the league was going back 4-3 (Christmas article). And I think Buffalo may be catching a break by getting into a trend early, instead of late.
I don’t think Wannstedt can be a successful coach in any era with any system. But if the league is trending to a 4-3, he’s not a bad hire.
The comparison with Phillips is bad, because he can create a great defense with almost any set of personnel in any era. He had a dominant defense in Buffalo when all but one other team went to a 4-3. He was great in San Diego and Dallas. And he’s great in Houston.
Phillips’ greatness is a bad comparison to the potential that Wannstedt is a good hire at the right time.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think Wannstedt can be a successful coach in any era with any system. But if the league is trending to a 4-3, he’s not a bad hire.
Ok. first statement- Why? I would like to understand why he can be a successful coach.
Second statement- Assumption. If everyone jumped off a bridge… blah blah yadda yadda. Additionally- he can still be a bad hire, even if the league is trending a 43. the two aren’t mutually exclusive, as you are implying.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I would like to understand why he can be a successful coach.
Did you read my article about the league trending? I think the league is trending back to the 4-3. Wannstadt is a good 4-3 coach.
Second statement- Assumption. If everyone jumped off a bridge… blah blah yadda yadda. Additionally- he can still be a bad hire, even if the league is trending a 43. the two aren’t mutually exclusive, as you are implying.
Sure, Wannstedt could be a bad hire. You’re underestimating the timing of switching defenses. Buffalo went 46 with Gregg Williams just as the league started going back to 46 variants. And they 2004-2005 defenses were very good. Buffalo was ahead of the bow wave on that move.
Buffalo went Tampa 2 in 2006, just at it’s peak, and the dropoff was dramatic. The passing offenses got so sophisticated so quickly, that a standard coverage defense wasn’t going to work anymore. Buffalo was 5 years late to that transition, and it showed.
So it’s not about being followers. It’s about timing trends. Either time trends right, or get a legend as a defensive coordinator (LeBeau) and never change. It’s hard to do both, but I’d submit it’s far harder to find a guy like LeBeau than to hire a decent coach at the right time.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wannstadt is a good 4-3 coach.
He is far from the foregone conclusion this front office would have me believe. That was what I said. I never said he wasn’t a “good” coach. But I am not willing to just boldly assume that he is “the answer” to this situation. Ultimately, there are a number of potential solutions; I personally would probably prefer to consider 99.9% of the alternatives, that could include NOT switching schemes mid- Regime, or having a plan, or better, having a plan and sticking to it.
I am completely against simply accepting this as some kind of a certain improvement. I don’t see it that way.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Your points are mainly that switching doesn’t sound ‘good’ to you. As if it’s a sign the regime didn’t know what their doing. I would argue that its the teams that dont adjust to personnel that get left behind in the end. Belicheck is one example of switching systems because he didn’t have the people for the fit. As did Marvin Lewis in Cincy who scrapped plans for the 3-4 after just a few years after moving toward it.
I believe the successful adjust, because they have the confidence in themselves to not stand by blindly with a pre determined belief on how things should run. It takes cajones to change. And it takes honesty to view your players through a clear lens.
IMO, Nix did not see Kyle Williams turning into the pro bowl player he became during the 2010 season, back when deciding to go 3-4 before the 2010 draft. If you want to knock him for this, so be it. But I think Kyles ascent to greatness was hard to predict, so for that he gets a pass. I was never behind the thought that Kyle could transition to the 3-4. And this move back to the 4-3 confirms it. You put your best players in the best position to make plays. You don’t view 4-3 as the best for Kyle? Tell me a team running a nose or DE in he 3-4 that is 6’1 with T-Rex arms? Their isn’t one. And I’m glad we will no longer try to force that to happen.
by DJ O on Jan 30, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You don’t view 4-3 as the best for Kyle? Tell me a team running a nose or DE in he 3-4 that is 6’1 with T-Rex arms? Their isn’t one. And I’m glad we will no longer try to force that to happen.
I see Kyle as a one gap penetrator. I think that means that his location is contingent on the scheme. there was discussing that aligning him at RDE in a 34 might be better, with Dareus in the nose. Kyle has shown himself to be a bit of an exception to the rule, or at least that is what the staff would have us believe. I saw him as a solid fit for a 4-3. Dareus, I see as a 43 DT, or a 34 DT/DE, as he has shown his versatility already.
Your points are mainly that switching doesn’t sound ‘good’ to you. As if it’s a sign the regime didn’t know what their doing. I would argue that its the teams that dont adjust to personnel that get left behind in the end.
And I would argue that regimes backpedal when they make mistakes, and it can cost time. that was what i contended.
You put your best players in the best position to make plays.
and Kyle Williams makes up the entire team? looking at this roster, we are to ignore the drafting of 2 years, as well as the jettison of a BUNCH of potential 43 talent (most of who ended up lions)that we had been building for years, and that is somehow doing what is best with your players?!?!? WHICH PLAYERS??!?!?? With the kind of turnover we see, it is no wonder no one is ever on the same page. If we aren’t letting core guys go, or trying to convert guys from other positions, we are changing schemes and coordinators every year, on some side of the ball, when we aren’t established to begin with. we got a 10 year window here, of complete industry stability. we should be hitting the ground running, and we are still farting around with figuring out what the plan is to begin with.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 31, 2012 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
grossly overstated
“Looking at this roster, we are to ignore the drafting of 2 years, as well as the jettison of a bunch of 4~3 talent…..and that is somehow doing what is in your best interest with your players?”
Yes. You lost Aaron Schobel. Poz sucked. An undersixed DT drafted in the 5th round was your best talent. And even then the team Nix inherited finished close to last against the run.
What great players are u talking about that left us for Detroit? Seriously, back ups are going to make ur point?
And how many guys did we draft that can’t be used in a 4~3? 1? 2? Out of 15? And even those two can be effective backups for Marcell and Kelsey. Why are u so hell bent on making it an issue that we drafted these two over others? Can’t every team say that? Bill Belicheck has had more picks then anyone over a 5 yr stretch, yet even he couldn’t land a great OLB to replace Teddy. Point being that some draftees fail, no matter what ur scheming for. Go look back at the 2010 draft again. It was lacking depth. some like to point out that we didn’t get Gronk but he was ONE player. Can’t every team say that about missing him? Give me a break. Chances r we would have taken Mount Cody. Then we really would have been stuck and u could MAYBE have an arguement. But for now, you just sound like a whiner.
by DJ O on Jan 31, 2012 1:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's not true
My argument is that Belichick went 4-3 after 30+ years and 5 Super Bowls with the 3-4. Why? That’s doesn’t mean it’s automatically going to work for Buffalo. In my article, I thought that the league was going back 4-3 (Christmas article). And I think Buffalo may be catching a break by getting into a trend early, instead of late.
Belichick was running a 4-3 when Brady first came in the league, then switched 3-4 now back to 4-3.
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by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 31, 2012 3:07 AM EST up reply actions
That's not totally true
He played a 3-4/4-3 mix his first season because he didn’t have all the right players to play a 3-4. He went 3-4 mostly in their Super Bowl year. So he went 4-3 his first year with the Pats out of necessity. That’s different from making the choice to go 4-3 because he wants to.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
He’s a defensive genius, and every defense he coaches is great.
I can agree that shifting to the 4-3 might not work.
And this somehow refutes my argument? he is a genius? I don’t have a problem with a genius coach. I think that is something you might look for in your coordinator, if you, IDK, even made an attempt to look. But we didn’t. He was the foregone conclusion, and now, we are basically hinging it all on his success. if he fails, they all fail, and we likely have to deal with it for 2-4 years, and then, if they STILL fail, we are right back where we were 2 years ago, or 12, or whatever timeframe you want to look at in the modern era that doesn’t include BUYING a team when there is no salary cap, which was the only way we ever really got it done. And then now, we spend among the least in the league. and have consistently for quite a while. So maybe it really is just on Ralph. But until we start paying our actual players, our starters, and the guys the fans want, and stop just sending 1st rounders packing year after year, then I feel am free to be as realistically pessimistic (pessimistically realistic maybe) as I want, IMO, because it is a realistic defensive approach to avoid the depression associated with dreaming for this team to succeed.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
It’s the difference between hiring a good coach that plays a defense that might be coming back into vogue and effectiveness, and a guy like Phillips, who could be great anywhere at any time. I don’t think that’s a fair comparison.
I think Belichick could be great any time. I don’t think Tony Dungy could. Dungy came along at a time when the Tampa 2 was en vogue, and he was a great Tampa 2 coach. If he comes along in the early 1980’s, I don’t think he has that much success. Dungy’s still a good coach, but it’s not a fair comparison with Belichick.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i can respect your opinion
But I personally think this is a cop-out to my original point.
There is more than “can be desired” in this staff, especially in the Wannstedt promotion.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
You can think it's a cop out if you'd like
I have reasoning to back what I wrote. Difference of opinion, yes. Might I be wrong? Certainly there’s potential. Cop-out? No.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
fair enough.
No question you have kept your view centralized on your point.
What of mine?
Exactly. This is basically a non- answer.
There is more than "can be desired" in this staff, especially in the Wannstedt promotion.
I stand by this simple, clear statement, to sum up my position. You don’t have to agree. It’s completely fine.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
I dont' think Wannstedt is an elite DC
I think he’s a good DC that might be in the right spot during a trend back to the 4-3.
Would I rather have Wade Phillips and stay 3-4? Absolutely. Would I rather have Jerry Gray and go 46? Yes. But the good DC’s aren’t making lateral moves right now, and most of the head coaches that got fired are offensive guys (Hue Jackson, Tony Sparano, Todd Haley), bad fits (Raheem Morris runs a Tampa 2) or lateral moves (Jack Del Rio). So I don’t blame Gailey for going with what he had.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
i can respect that.
nothing much more to add. I just think at least considering even an “up and comer” (edwards was never this, or not yet this- to me) would be a better/more desirable consideration, for me. That was why I said that I don’t agree he is a foregone conclusion, and why I said it appears we are deviating from the original plan, basically just because of him. I don’t agree with that tactic either. I think it is all very questionable. Transparent even. I wonder how Edwards might have succeeded if his heir apparent wasn’t already on his staff, and probably was already testing scheme ideas on Edwards’ time, and made him a proper scapegoat.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
well said...rec'd
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
well, don’t I have to use hindsight because we just switched? If we would have used the same scheme I couldn’t, well maybe I could, but it wouldn’t be as easy. I can use hindsight because the 34 in Buffalo is in the past. I have no choice.
they transitioned to the 3-4 because it was trending in the league, and was a good way to stop passing offenses
but don’t we all agree that it’s the players that make the scheme? That’s my problem (among others) is that the Bills are doing things because it’s trendy or whatever. How about just formulate a reason to have your defense exist and then implement it. I don’t see the bills doing that at all.
You’re attacking a cascading system that is the playing personnel system of free agency and the draft, and doing so with perfect hindsight.
Yes I am, and probably unfairly but I still did it.
The reason I did it though is because I feel that part of Nix not wanting (I might be wrong, but this is/was my assessment) to go FA heavy was because he was going to tear apart our defense and build from scratch. If he hadn’t done that could he have invested in 43 type players that could have been more beneficial than Edwards, Davis Torbor etc…?
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 30, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
but don’t we all agree that it’s the players that make the scheme?
Absolutely. But Wannstedt’s probably putting the Bills defensive players in better spots in a 4-3 than they were in a 3-4. So, it may be a good move. I don’t think they are doing this because it’s trendy. I think that it’s ahead of the 4-3 trend, but it’s mostly because Wannstedt is good at coaching a 4-3 and calling a 4-3 game plan. Wouldn’t you want you’re scheme if you were coach?
Nix didn’t want to go heavy free agency because it’s wasted money early in a rebuild. Buffalo has Dareus, Carrington, Troup, Williams, and Sheppard that need reps, not some mid-range free agent. Buffalo brought in guys that could start, but probably shouldn’t, in order to allow young talent to grow. You bring in Jimmy Kennedy at too high a cost, and he not only plays ahead of Troup and Carrington, but he eats up money for no reason.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
But Wannstedt’s probably putting the Bills defensive players in better spots in a 4-3 than they were in a 3-4. So, it may be a good move.
Dude. Sorry, but this is so incredibly assumptive, and based almost off of NO evidence at all. At least use our incredible suck in the 34, to support this claim, rather than assuming that Wannstedt is just magically going to fix all our woes, by waving his magic wand, and every guy we have is just automatically gonna fit the scheme, and then be amazing. That is just fantasy.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I actually agree with that statement as far as Dareus and Williams goes. Sheppard I think is going to get shredded in coverage – he looks slow to me.
But i’m rather excited for Dareus/Williams in the middle – they’re going to be awesome in there.
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 30, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
shepp has to be a MLB
that was what he did in college in their 43. but, that means NB goes to LOLB (as he is the best in coverage)and… that leaves…. WHO? we don’t have any backups to LOLB. we don’t have any ROLBs. we have oversized DEs for a 43, but that are similar in size to the Bengals 4 man front this past season.
I don’t necessary disagree with the statement, but not only is it an assumption, it is an assumption based on Wannstedt being inherently effective. I don’t buy that. Any number of coaches have proven ineffective, given specific circumstances, regardless of previous track record.
I will say this. I want a Sean Peyton. Or a Mike Tomlin. Or a Harbaugh (of course). I want legitimate staff of proven individuals who have “it”. These guys are looking less and less like that, and more and more like what we have had here, practically always (at least most of my life)
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not assumptive. Kelsay and Williams are best in one-gap penetration schemes. Kelsay’s first break out year was his first year in a fast flowing 4-3, in 2006, when he got 5.5 sacks. Williams is at his best as a one gap player. Sheppard is best when not taking on linemen blockers, something he had to do in a 3-4 but won’t in a 4-3. Carrington’s length suggests that he’s better on the outside should of the offensive tackle, or even the guard, instead of playing five technique. Barnett would be playing in space with the ability to flow to the football full-time.
You should know by now that I may be wrong with my claims, but it’s rarely because I don’t have reasons to back up what I write. There’s no assumption that Wannstedt’s going to magically fix anything. I’m looking at how the shift compares to what players do well, or can’t do, and for the majority of the Bills front seven defenders, it’s a better situation.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Jan 30, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
5.5 sacks is a 'breakout' year?
Then he just had another of them, in the complete other defense.
Williams was signed long term to be the “anchor of our defense, for a long time coming” to paraphrase CHIX. That was when we were switching to a 34. So obviously, there was a time they felt that he fit that scheme. Maybe the think he fits a 43 better. Maybe he does. But that doesn’t really negate the rest of the roster. In fact, the example you provide are of two guys who are showing themselves as scheme diverse: and apparently we want/need an entire roster of these. I don’t personally feel that the MAJORITY of the roster falls into the category of veteran player who has been in multiple schemes/situations and has had moderate to slightly above average (or as inconsistent and mediocre) success as anything to “hang my hat on” so to speak.
for the majority of the Bills front seven defenders, it’s a better situation.
we will see. I don’t know that I agree.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Buffalo has Dareus, Carrington, Troup, Williams, and Sheppard that need reps, not some mid-range free agent.
Would Troup, Carrington or Sheppard even be on the team if we were running a 43 from the beginning? Troup hell no, Carrington probably a hell no too. See what i’m driving at here?
I know you understand my point, I understand your point, we just don’t agree is all.
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Jan 30, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
True
We’r’e not going to agree. Best to agree to disagree.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
REc'd
I agree with this statement 1000%. It is defeatist. They had no way to know Edwards was going to flop. They gave him 2 years, he couldn’t get it done, and moved on. The change to the 43 isn’t nearly as hard as the reversal, so, I am fine with it.
My issue has been and will be the flip flopping. You say that guys like Batten and Moats don’t matter but they’ve also drafted Troup and Carrington to be 3-4 players and brought guys in like Davis, Edwards Torbor for 4-3 tutelage.
The issue is that those resources could be used else where.
This has been my sentiment as well. The ONLY (single, one, simple) reason that we are going backwards, is because we hired a guy, who I don’t particularly care for, and am less than impressed with.
On top of that, now we just offset at least half of 2 drafts by making this decision.
To think that these things don’t matter, or to suggest it in general, is basically insulting to those of us who pay this close attention, and understand the differences in these scheme/methods.
It is totally fine, if you are a 43 proponent. It is equally logical for those of us that support 34. But none of this matters, in reference to their wishy washy approach.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Carrington.....
I think Alex either should gain 10 lbs. of muscle and move to tackle or lose twenty to play end….
Anybody else feel this way?
PodunkO - The great post ender!
I agree with the lose 20 part!!
poor guy:)
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
Kelsey at this point of his career > upshaw as a rookie
Ay Ay Ay Ayyyyy
by BuffaloBillsBigestFan on Jan 30, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
The bottom line....
Is that we should have stayed in a 4-3 to begin with, mainly because our best player, Kyle, fits 4-3 far better.
Then Mr. Iamonlydrafting 3-4 players nix, goes ahead and drafts Dareus, another player who fits a 4-3 much better.
And here we are…..codifying tackles…..
Sounds disgusting.
PodunkO - The great post ender!
Well the interesting thing is
that this change will either make or break this regime. It can be one of the main decisions that either gets us to the promise land (playoffs and beyond) or gets this Nix/Gailey regime fired.
If we want to point to out some key decisions, I can give you three:
1) Keeping Fitz as the long term QB
2) Trading away Lynch to draft CJ
3) The flip floppinging between defenses
This is it, the moment we need to jump on the CHIX wagon or torch it…Should be interesting
More on Alex.....
The way Alex gained weight over last offseason, maybe tackle would be the more logical move.
It’s not like we have too much depth there…..
Count me as one of the surprized if Troup ends up a successful NFL player, although I think he is a better fit as a 4-3 tackle. Maybe his back heals up, he matures and likes the position change and I am pleasantly surprised.
Carrington is the one young…..investment we have that looks like a better fit in a 3-4…..
PodunkO - The great post ender!
If Carrington can lose weight and go back down to the 275-285 mark that we drafted him at he’ll be the perfect weight for the strong side DE.
So just because he gained weight doesn’t mean that he can’t lose it too.
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by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 30, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Switching to 4-3
Dave W was interviewed on xm-88 radio on Sat. afternoon and said " the Bills are going to play a 4-3 for sure".
So I guess the transition is upon us.
Also, watched a portion of the Senoir Bowl on Sat., Coples was awful, in my opinion got handled 1 on 1 every snap. They also moved him around a lot. He looked a lot like you know who…A Maybin..
coples
I don’t know what part you watched but he had a pretty good game I thought and dominated one drive. He put on pressure and when he didn’t he got his hands up to bat passes. Don’t forget there are no blitzs allowed and both sides were calling very vanilla plays.
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by Let's Go Buffalo (UK) on Jan 30, 2012 1:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Your starting 4-3 is exactly how I see it. Of course they would add a SAM LB if that’s the case. No way they let Batten man that position on opening day.
Don’t you think you would see Dwan Edwards’ name ahead of Merriman’s at the DE spot on run downs? Then they switch out on passing situations.
mklmlkmnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
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"You are drunk, sir!" "And you are ugly, madame! But I will be sober in the morning!"
hmmm
my 3 year son has just made his first post on Rumblings.
I will make a Bills fan of him yet
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by gregeng on Jan 30, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
outstanding
love his enthusiasm. But, if i were a father, i think i would have to seriously consider cursing my child with loving this team. I know it has built character, for me, but at the same time, probably creates a significant amount of stress as well hahaha.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 30, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Concept question.
Is there any possibility that Barnett goes to the strong side and we put Merriman as the weak side OLB? To me that would make sense because Barnett can cover TE’s well while Merriman is best in the rush and in run defense, which is essentially what the weak side OLB does.
I just think that leaving Merriman at OLB and looking hard for 2, possibly 3, rushing DE’s threw free agency and the draft might be the better way to go here.
I mean maybe there’s something that I’m getting schematically wrong here, but a Merriman-Sheppard-Barnett LB corps is what makes the most sense to me.
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by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 30, 2012 2:05 PM EST reply actions
I don't think Merriman is fluid enough in coverage to play Will.
Maybe moving Merriman to Sam?
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
See that's my problem i think that I have the Will and Sam responsibilities confused.
Which one usually covers tight ends and which one is more of a rusher that leaves the field on nickle packages?
Because obviously Barnett would be the coverage OLB and Merriman would be the run stopper/rusher. I just don’t know which one is the Will and which one is the Sam. For all I know I may be getting the responsibilities entirely wrong anyways.
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by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 30, 2012 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
That's part of the problem
In a conventional 4-3, the Will and the Sam are the same type of guy, just like Barnett.
In a 46 style 4-3, like the Giants play, the Will is like Barnett and the Sam is like Merriman. But the Sam plays over the tight end, to jam him, and the safety picks up the tight end. Mostly, though what I just said doesn’t happen all plays.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
So essentially Merriman’s fit depends on the overall scheme that the stash will implement?
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by CanadianBillsFan on Jan 30, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
DJ great post again!!
a couple of points and or questions. I did not see K. Morrison mentioned. Do you not think he will be retained and he played MLB for the Jag’s didn’t he? I thought I read somewhere that McKillop was a SLB not a MLB not that it matters much. Would you be in favor of Carrington dropping back to the 285 range again or would they keep him above 300 for run downs? Another thing this switch does IMO is it will make S. Johnson unnecesary with all the DT depth. This would free up 3 MIL to put towards the RDE.
I know this was not the point to your post but you have 20 players listed and the team will add 4-5 legitamate roster making players through FA, and the draft mainly at RDE, WLB, and SLB. That makes about 25 players that will have to get pruned down to no more than 17 for the 2012 roster. My point is the final depth chart will likely look a lot different than the one above. I would be surprised to see (S. Johnson, Moats, Dotson, Moore, Heard, McKillop, Eddins, and Gilbert) on the 53 man roster next year so it wont look as bad as it does now.
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
I’d rather see Carrington at strongside end.
I didn’t include pending free agents, and there was no intent to look at the final roster.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Oh, I agree
I did not mean for Carrington to drop weight to be a RDE. The Raiders are the only team I know that plays a 4-3 LDE in the 300LB range. Is this what you think they would do with Carrington or would he need to drop 20 LB? 285LB is still pretty big for a LDE.
You included B. Scott and he is a FA. Speeking of Scott why could he not back up Barnett at WLB? I am guessing not as stout in run def??
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
I don’t know what they’d do, but I’d do it. I’d have Carrington drop to a weight that he’s fluid at but still can anchor, whatever weight that is.
Scott can play WLB, just an oversight that I included him but he’s a FA.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Per the Presser, Hybrid 4-3 Base
With Sheppard as the Mike. So, there we go…
Danny Batten
Wouldn’t he play RDE? That’s what he played in college.
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by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 30, 2012 3:34 PM EST reply actions
I don’t think he’s got the bulk to set the edge, or the ability to beat an NFL tackle in space.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Bulk him to 260
And he plays RDE, which is where he played before the NFL.
When people are used to playing with their hand in the dirt, you can ruin everything by making them stand up and rush. I think Batten will make major strides if they bulk him up and play him RDE. I sure think he has a better chance there than at SAM LB in a 4-3.
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by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 31, 2012 3:18 AM EST up reply actions
Do you really think?
Batten can cover a TE, but he sure showed promise in college playing RDE…..High Motor……geet him to 260-270…..he has a chance at excelling at RDE.
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by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 31, 2012 3:21 AM EST up reply actions
Batten can cover a TE
Or cover anyone? He was never asked to that before the NFL, he is not a LB in any scheme he is a RDE in a 4-3.
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Don't be a Paully!
by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 31, 2012 3:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think this is a little wrong with the 4-3....all my opinion
1. Moats will not be a DE
2. Robert Eddins will be a DE because i think thats what he played in college and was brought in as a pass rusher
3. Dwan Edwards will be the back up to williams on the right side. i dont think they will move him to RDE to the other side of the line as that DT
Ay Ay Ay Ayyyyy
by BuffaloBillsBigestFan on Jan 30, 2012 3:41 PM EST reply actions
Most of our draft picks the last couple of years have been 4-3 players that appear to fit the mold of 3-4 players. Carrington can play DE(starter or depth based on draft). Moats and Batten DE(too much value placed on these 2 reserve players). Troup is a good interior DT(depth) with injury concern. Davis ,Merriman, and Barnett are the only bigger acquisitions we have made that play the 3-4 defense. Barnett is versatile and Davis is ready to coach. Merriman, who knows what will happen, but healthy he can be a good DE. The Bills have not done any hindering of the progression of this defense by going to a 3-4. They’ve held on to good 4-3 players like Kelsay, Scott, K. Williams. Maybe lost one player in Pos, but all in all, that is the way the NFL works year in and year out. No ones knows who we would have gained or lost but we didn’t make any big pickups any way. I don’t chalk that up to the alignment but more so to the small market of Buffalo and the fact we ARE a losing team(as of now).
Morrison
Morrison seems to be a decent fit for 4-3 SLB… he’s smallish, quick and athletic; not a run-stuffer but decent in coverage. Maybe this explains why the Bills seem interested in bringing him back?
Let's try this again
Nice piece. But there’s a couple of things I’ve gathered from a guy who’s coached the 4-3 Over, is a Pitt fan, and has watched alot of Wanny’s defense. He said that he liked to play alot of big nickel, so don’t be surprised to see alot of Scott/Searcy at WOLB. And not alot of OLB blitzing.
Part of the philosophy behind the 4-3 Over is to get faster, tweener players onto the field while not sacrificing any run defense. It requires defensive tackles big enough to keep the smaller LBs clean yet also fast enough to be disruptive in the backfield. The roles of LDE and RDE are very similar, attack the inside shoulder and spill the play to the outside for the DBs to mop up. Prototypical DEs in this scheme are in the 6’3 250 lbs range. The only ‘true’ LB required is the mike. Smaller, speedier S/LB tweeners are good fits for the will and sam. Supposedly, in Wanny’s 4-3 Over he doesn’t blitz his OLBs and they are mainly responsible for gap control and coverage in the flat.
From the above description, it can be seen that Carrington is NOT a good fit. Carrington’s strength is not that he’s particularly fast, it’s that he’s fast for a big man. It would seem we are a good pass rusher away from having a reasonable defense. Anyways, the following is how my friend saw the personnel best fitting Wanny’s 4-3 over:
Merriman - Dareus - Williams - Kelsay/Moats
- Barnett - Sheppard - Scott/Searcy
Fwiw, the reason he liked Merriman at LDE that with Dareus likely doubled, Merriman would often be one-on-one a TE, and that’s a pretty sweet matchup.
Some good resources for anyone interested:
Defensive line in the Miami 4-3 Defense
The Miami 4-3
Miami/UNC: The 4-3 OVER/Slide front
Psycho Jungle Cat
OK, see what you're saying
My thoughts on Carrington: he was tried at Sam outside linebacker most of the past training camp. I think he’s got good movement skills. The original and college versions call for 6-3/250 ends, but it’s really the movement skills that matter. I think Carrington may have the movement skills.
Good links.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
At first, the question fans kept asking was “Will the Bills play more 4-3 or continue with the 3-4 hybrid?” Those who felt they’d keep the 3-4 hybrid argued that they’ve drafted for it and spent the last two years in transition. On the other side, 4-3 advocates argued that Wanny knows the 4-3 and he is gonna run what he’s shown he can do best. Well, we now know the answer to that question.
So now, the question is “Will the Bills play a more traditional 4-3 or implement Wanny’s 4-3 Over?” Briefly, I think the arguments are similar as above and we will see the 4-3 Over as base defense.
Ok, this is a roundabout way of saying that Carrington really is to large to play OLB in this scheme – given his frame, it’s more natural for him to get larger (as he did last year) rather than lose from his college playing weight. Again, it’s not that he’s particularly fast or agile, he’s fast or agile for a big, powerful man. Ideal size for the 4-3 Over is ~ 6’3 250 lbs.
If anything, I’d say he has a much better shot kicking inside at DT than at DE. And of course, he could also get some looks in other fronts. The way I see it, it’s not so much movement skills as pass rush ability.
Psycho Jungle Cat
I don’t doubt that the ideal size is 6-3 / 250, but my argument is that it’s not about the size, it’s about the skill set. If Buffalo happened to sign Mario Williams, he’s way about the listed size requirement. But he’s got better movement skills that most 6-3 / 250 guys.
Another example is Bruce Smith, though in the extreme, and I’m not comparing Smith to Carrington directly. Smith was really about 253 pounds, though he was listed at 273, and played 3-4 DE because he was powerful enough to man the position. The lack of size didn’t matter.
I think Carrington has the movement skills to play DE in this system.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Oops
Ftr,“Let’s try again” refers to the discussion in the other “Why the Buffalo Bills Defensive Alignment Doesn’t Matter” thread – didn’t mean to sound rude.
Psycho Jungle Cat
Nice post DJ, thanks for the insight. Two quick questions for you.
1) Why don’t you ever list Robert Mathis along with Cliff Avril as potential second-choice FA targets? Do you think he doesn’t fit well, or you just don’t think he’ll hit FA?
2) Would Upshaw be a complete waste in this system, or would he simply have to be moved around based on situation? I think his flexibility for us in our (old?) hybrid scheme diminshes in a conventional 4-3.
Thanks again for the great post and hard work.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
I’m not sure Mathis can survive outside of a Tampa 2 style defense.
Upshaw would have to play end. And with that, I don’t think Buffalo drafts him.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I’ve always scratched my head at how he and Freeney have been able to succeed so well at their size.
I guess there’s no way that Mathis would sign up for specialist duty now, he’s 30 so I was dreaming that he’d be OK with that role to extend his career a bit.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
What would a prototypicial SLB look like?
From what it sounds, he basically has to be good at everything except blitzing, so it would probably take somebodythat is pretty big to stop the run and athletic enough to cover tight ends. But wouldn’t everyone want that at every linebacking position?
by TheHesterEffect on Jan 30, 2012 7:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions
so it would probably take somebodythat is pretty big to stop the run and athletic enough to cover tight ends
That is exactly what you want.
Girls use hair spray, Men don't.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!
Don't be a Paully!
by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 31, 2012 3:24 AM EST up reply actions
how about a different approach:
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
posted that on accident. great start haha
if you were to look at your 43 alignment, and let just say, for the sake of argument, that Meatball, isn’t back full strength, can’t go. can you honestly say that you can create some combination of those 9 guys, who can both stop the run, and cover a TE? I mean, obviously, Nick is the only guy we can argue MIGHT be capable, for sure. He is rangy, he is a veteran, he can play. But, now, he is on the other side of the field, and they motion the tight end over. We can either give up the coverage, let him run over there, let guys shift out of position, and they can just, do something else (throw a slant left, lets say). So now, ONE player is removed from the equation (one who incidentally was removed this season) and the question becomes, WHO the heck do we have to stand over there, and that can compete against RBs and TEs… and the answer is nobody. Maybe Merriman. MAYBE Batten. But we sure haven’t seen it. Sorry, but it just seems like, we change a box to a triangle, and put an extra guy on the line, and everything is just, hunky dory? Negative. Haha. There are some serious concerns with this front, and it only includes 7 of 11! I don’t really know how 4 sub 6 foot guys help us with this situation. We have a need for at least 2 LBs, assuming we want a guy like the guy we need, behind him. We need a RE because we can’t hinge everything on merriman. White may not move well enough in space to cover, though his insticts should assist him, if he knee doesn’t hinder him. Moats is NOT a RE in the NFL. Maybe in college, but he is just too small to contend with LTs in this league. If the TE is on this side, maybe, but then, why not play him at ROLB? Shepp is solid for MLB. He and dareus, are the two guys (in the seven, or i would include Aaron Wiliams) that I am not concerned at all with. Our 3 NEWEST players, are clearly the best talent, and that is why they fit either scheme. The rest had been selected with a different goal in mind. So we can either accept that we have been making mistakes and are trying to fix that, and hope that it works, but it doesn’t mean in the least that we have to agree with the strategy, or it’s employment.
As i was too oft reminded by my former boss: Change is inevitable. Growth is optional. Regardless of why I know it, the statements remain true. We have the option to grow and improve. I am skeptical it will happen, without change. So, I guess to some degree I will try and be more open,since really, i don’t call the shots, and get no choice in the matter; but I will take some solice in knowing that I didn’t agree. And by being wrong, it means we are winning then, so who cares then if my apprehension was wrong? I won’t. I think it wiser to be guarded, than to just assume that “everything’s fine” when, really, it hasn’t been in a long while, and there isn’t much evidence just yet, that those particular circumstances are going to change.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 31, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
obviously Dareus doesn't necessarily have to move if Kyle couldn't go, but he might.
regardless, the bulk of that side is questionable. was what i was eluding to at first.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Jan 31, 2012 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
I find it funny Der Jaeger
That many of the arguements you are using to switching to a 4-3 are the same ones I have been posting for a year and a half.
Everyone who has been here that reads my posts knows I have been clamoring for the 4-3 for several reasons.
Too many teams using the 3-4 so it is harder to find NT and OLBs
Bellichick is moving back to stay ahead of the curve.
Easier to find 4-3 talent in the draft.
I have been scorching Nix and Gailey for a year and a half on BR and you were one of the ones telling me the 3-4 was a good idea, and now you’ve done a 180?
The Buffalo Kid, once again ahead of the curve :)
Girls use hair spray, Men don't.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR AND GROW UP BY NOT USING HAIRSPRAY MALES!
Don't be a Paully!
by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 31, 2012 3:12 AM EST reply actions
The 4-3? The 3-4?
I came across a really good article and discussion of the issues on the dollies boards, as they were talking about whether they should maintain their 3-4 defense or move more to the 4-3. Many of the same point, in more depth … interesting stuff. Fwiw, I agree, and it’s nice to see the Bills being getting in early in a trend rather than jumping on an already full bandwagon.
The 4-3? The 3-4?
Psycho Jungle Cat
Don't pat yourself on the back too soon
Show me where I ever thought the 3-4 was a good idea?
I wrote that Belichick was ahead of the curve right after the Super Bowl last year. Here’s the link.
All I’ve ever done is explain alignments and schemes. If you’ve been that attentive, you’d read that my preferred defense is a 46 variant.
There’s a huge difference between explaining things, which is what I do as a writer, and advocating something.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
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