Hello fellow Rumblers, Last week Stetz and myself had a conversation about if a rookie QB starts for us next year if the season could be considered a "lost" season. He said no, and I said yes. Since both of us had a few guys to back up our arguments, no decision was truly made. Until now. I have done all the research from 1990 till this year. Every QB that STARTED at least 4 games for their team as a rookie. At first, I was only gonna have first rounders, but, I didn't have that much data, so, I included all QBs who have started at least 4 games as a rookie. Here is what they did:
Listed is each first round QB, what they did, and any other QBs that started for their team that year as a rookie:

1990

Colts Jeff George 7-9 Lions

Andre Ware only 4 games played in, 0 starts

1991

Seahawks Dan Mcgwire 1 game started

Raiders Todd Marinovich 1 game falcons Rd 2 Brett Farve 0 games

1992

Cinci David Klingler 4 games played

Denver Tommy Maddox 4 games started 0-4

Giants Dave Brown 2 games

1993

Pats Drew Bledsoe 5-7

Seahawks Rick Mirer 6-10

1994

Redskins Heath Shuler 1-7

Tampa Trent Dilfer 5 played, 2 started

1995

Oilers Steve McNair 4 played, 2 started

Panthers Kerry Collins 7-6

1996

Tony Banks 5-8

1997

49ers Jim Drunkenmiller 4 games, 1 start

Cards Jake Plummer 3-6

1998

Colts Peyton Manning 3-13

Chargers Ryan Leaf 3-6

Lions Charlie Batch second round 5-7

1999

Browns Tim Couch 2-12

Eagles Donovan McNabb 6 games started 2-4

Bengals Akili Smith 6 games played 2 started

Vikes Dante Culpepper 1 game played

Bears Cade McNown 6 started 2-4

2000

Jets Pennington 1 game played

2001

Falcons Michael Vick 8 games played, 1 start

Cowboys second round Quincy Carter 8 games started 3-5

Panthers Chris Weinke 15 starts 1-14

2002

Texans David Carr 4-12

Lions Joey Harrington 3-9

Redskins Patrick Ramsey 9 games, 5 starts (2-3)

2003

Cinci Carson Palmer DNP

Jags Byron Leftwich 5-8

Ravens Kyle Boller 5-4

Bears Rex Grossman 3 games played

2004

giants Eli Manning 1-6

Chargers Phillip Rivers DNP

Steelers Big Ben 11-3

Bills JP Losman DNP

Browns Luke McCown 0-4

Bears Craig Krenzel 3-2

2005

49ers Alex Smith 2-5

Packers Aaron Rodgers DNP

Redskins Jason Campbell DNP

Browns Charlie Frye 2-3

Chicago Kyle Orton 10-5

St. Louis Ryan Fitzpatrick 0-3

2006

Titans Vince Young 8-5

Cards Matt Leinhart 4-7

Broncos Jay Cutler 2-3

Tampa Bay Bruce Gradkowski 3-8

2007

Raiders Jamarcus Russell played in 4, started 1

Browns Brady Quinn played in 1

Miami John Beck 0-4

Buffalo Trent Edwards 5-4

2008

Falcons Matt Ryan 11-5

Ravens Joe Flacco 11-5

2009

Lions Matt Stafford 2-8

Jets Sanchez 8-7

Bucs Josh Freeman 3-6

Rams Keith Null 0-4

2010

Rams Sam Bradford 7-9

Broncos Tim Tebow 1-2

Panthers Jimmy Clausen 1-9

Browns Colt Mccoy 2-6

Cards John Skelton 2-2

2011

Panthers Cam Newton 6-10

Titans Jake Locker 5 games, 0 starts

Jags Gabbert 4-10

Vikes Ponder 2-8

Cinci Dalton 9-7

Texans TJ Yates 2-3

2012

Colts Luck 6-3

Redskins RG3 3-6

Miami Tannehill 4-5

Browns Weeden 2-7

Seahawks Russell Wilson 6-4

So, as you can see, the odds are well in my favor of the season being lost if we play a rookie QB that isn't ready to lead yet. I know that Luck and Wilson both have winning records right now, but, I don't see either of them finishing with over 9 wins, much like Dalton last year, and as Dalton did this year, taking a step back next year when teams shut down what they do well.
As you can see, 11 QB had winning records, 41 QBs didn't, and 1 played .500 ball. Not great odds for our guy.
Even if you take QBs from the year 2000 on up, you end up with: 8 with winning records, 22 with losing and 1 tie.

Enjoy the research and let me know if you came to the same or different conclusion as I did.