In each of the Bills' wins in regulation this year they have won the turnover battle (+3, +1, and +3 respectively) for a total turnover ratio of +7, or an average of 2.33 less turnovers than their opponent.
In each of the Bills' losses this year they have lost the turnover battle (-3, -4, -1, -2, -1, -3) for a total turnover ratio of -14, or an average of 2.33 more turnovers than their opponent.
In the overtime win the turnover ratio was even.
What do we conclude from this?
First of all, it'd be difficult to refute the argument that, barring the San Francisco game, each of those losses could have been a win if the Bills had won the turnover battle. Certainly the last Patriots game, the Titans game, and the Jets game all seem like they would have been wins. The first Pats game and the Texans game would have at least been much closer.
Second of all, the Bills haven't had the worst luck in the league with fumbles, but they haven't had the best. Opponents have recovered 7 of their own fumbles, Bills have recovered 5 of their own. If a few fumbles bounce differently, a few more games could be in the win column.
Third, and most importantly, it seems reasonable to conclude that if the Bills take care of the ball and generate turnovers, they can not only compete with virtually any team (except the 49ers?) but can beat them.
In my opinion, this is the single factor (obviously there are many others) that best explains the team's current record and the most important factor going forward as to whether or not this team can put together an improbable run for a wild card. Thoughts?