We're two dreadful games away from knowing exactly where Buffalo will draft in April. DraftTek predicts the Bills will pick 7th overall (sounds about right) and I think it is an interesting site in that they make their mock drafts a bit different than most places. Last year DraftTek correctly predicted Buffalo's first round selection of Gilmore and fifth round pick of Tank Carder.
Of the Gilmore pick, DraftTek later wrote:
The savvy, hard-hitting Gilmore an excellent pick, one that could trump Aaron Williams' RD2 selection last year. Compared with Williams, Gilmore has more height (he's 6'2" to Williams' generous 6'0"), better speed (4.40 to 4.56), better blitz skills, and similar change of direction (3.94 shuttle to 4.07, and 6.61 to 6.72 3-cone). Williams-Gilmore could rival the Bills' all-time CB tandems. Grade A
Okay, DraftTek clearly doesn't know Aaron Williams like we do but it's a draft website not a player evaluation zone.
So, who does DraftTek have Buffalo taking through four rounds this April? I'm betting that some will be quite happy with the first round pick, a few with the second and some perhaps happy or unhappy with the combo.
Round 1: LB Manti Te'o, 6'2", 255#
The 2013 draft is short on top-end offensive playmakers. The Bills would strongly consider a top QB or WR prospect here. At QB, there's only Geno Smith. He doesn't possess the intangibles that the top end QBs of previous year possessed: Luck, Griffin, Ryan. Nonetheless, Smith will be gone by the time the Bills climb the podium. At WR, there's no uber prospect such as Megatron, AJ Green, Julio Jones or Justin Blackmon. Given the lack of alternatives, the Bills would absolutely love to get ahold of Manti Te'o here. He just missed out on the Hesiman trophy, but has collected so much other post season hardware that Notre Dame will need to build a new wing to store it all. A relentless worker, a student of the game, a high-character community guy, Te'o has it all. A can't miss prospect may be the missing ingredient to push the Buffalo D to among the league's best. Bills fans - tune into the BCS National Championship (Monday Jan 7) and the Senior Bowl (Sat Jan 26).
Round 2: QB Tyler Wilson, 6'3", 215#
Whenever Fitz has a bad game(s), QB bubbles to the top of Bills draft needs. Maybe he just needs more targets. At the beginning of the season the Bills were starting Stevie Johnson and Donald Jones, with David Nelson in the slot. Nelson went on IR in week 1, and Jones . . . who the hell is Donald Jones anyway?? Where did he come from? Anyhow, Jones is out now too. Although Fitz had put some life into the Buffalo offense since taking over, you get the idea he's not going to take the team to the next level. Wilson has a strong arm (for Bufflalo weather), good mobility, and a "capacity to be successful". Wilson had an awesome 2011 season (24TD, 6INT, 3638 yds), but struggled in 2012 as the Razorback program was beset by scandal and coach Petrino's late removal. The mock draft webverse often has Wilson is mocked to the Bills in Round 1. But we don't think that Fitz is all that bad, and that Wilson has the track record for a round 1 pick. We'll get a look at Tyler Wilson in the Senior Bowl, as Arkansas didn't make it to a bowl.
Round 3: WR Aaron Dobson, 6'2", 205# (No DraftTek description of the pick.)
Round 4: CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, 6'1", 190# (No DraftTek description of the pick.)
I don't follow college football to have informed opinions about any of these guys. I do know that Tyler Wilson isn't considered by many (most?) to be one of the top 3 QB prospects. I also know that QBs go sooner than they probably should in the draft and that Wilson - if Nix targets him - might not be available at pick 38. Then again, several of the rookie QBs who have played well were taken after the first round in 2012. History suggests that early first rounders are the least likely to bust but there are enough later round QBs who have won it all not to dismiss those picked after the first round out of hand. Is Tyler Wilson likely to be one of those? I haven't a clue; those of you who watch all of the games can chime in with your thoughts. Also, click on the DraftTek link and you'll see that only one QB goes in the first round. That seems quite unlikely but several of the big name QB prospects don't appear on their list yet. (Haven't officially declared?)