I used Drafttek to get a sense of team needs and SBNation for a big board and came up with the following mock draft. Now that the order of the top 20 picks is known I took some wild guesses at what teams might do. There are lots of trades but I think that's going to be the new norm.
- Chiefs: QB Geno Smith--Kansas City gave Matt Cassel every chance to repeat his relief performance with New England. It hasn't worked and it's apparently not going to work. While we all thought that Belichek was giving Pioli a sweetheart deal, Bill was in fact bending Scotti over the table. While a few teams call about the first overall pick there's no serious interest because this draft has no can't-miss franchise QBs. Plus, everyone figures that KC will take a QB.
- Jacksonville: DT Star Lotuleli-Jacksonville needs defensive line help. The Jags also need a new QB since Blaine Gabbert stinks. With Star being a probable star and none of the QBs looking like sure bets, the Jags take the DT. The team would like to trade down but the only teams in the top 20 with severe DT needs (Carolina, Giants) don't have the juice to make a trade happen. Besides, a predicted early round run on QBs makes it more likely other, higher rated players will be pushed down the board.
- NY Jets: QB Matt Barkley-The Jets send the Raiders picks 9, 40 and their 2014 2nd rounder to move up the board....in a move eerily reminiscent of the trade that brought Mark Sanchez to New Jersey. Barkley is the 2nd rated QB on several draft websites and the Jets get the 2nd QB off the board. They only hope that USC is not, in fact, cursed when it comes to producing NFL QBs.
- Philadelphia: OT Luke Joeckel-Jason Peters was hurt so the team tried out Demetrius Bell. That didn't work either so they trotted out King Dunlap. It's kind of amazing that Nick Foles managed to survive the season. Rather than pick through Buffalo's trash heap Philly picks up one of the top rated players in the draft, figuring that Joeckel and Peters can fight it out for LT with the loser playing RT.
- Arizona: QB Mike Glennon-The Cardinals have a new GM, a new head coach and clearly need a new QB. The team gives up their 2013 1st and 3rd and a 2014 4th rounder to Detroit to make sure that Buffalo - the only other really QB needy team on the board - doesn't take their QB of choice.
- Cleveland: LB Manti Te'o-The Browns biggest need is arguably linebacker. Thanks to the early run on QBs Te'o falls right to them.
- Detroit: DE Damontre Moore-The Lions could well have taken Moore at #5 and are delight to get him at #7 along with an extra pick in the 2013 draft as well as one in the 2014, too. Somewhere Matt Millen thinks to himself, "Fools! They should have taken Keenan Allen!"
- Dallas: OG Chance Warmack-The Bills have several suitors for this pick. Everyone thinks Buffalo will take a QB but everyone also knows that there is little danger of anyone else taking a QB for most of the rest of the first round...which means that everyone knows the Bills will be getting lots of offers to move down. Jerry Jones isn't one for sitting on his hands. His offensive line needs help, as demonstrated by the season ending loss in Washington. He ships Buffalo #18, Dallas' 2013 2nd rounder and a 2014 4th. It's a big move for a guard but Warmack is apparently well thought of.
- Oakland: DE Bjoern Werner-The Raiders address a glaring need while also picking up some extra selections from the Jets. The Raiders have plenty of firepower to get back into the first round and begin making phone calls, careful not to accidentally dial Buffalo's extension.
- Tennessee: CB Dee milliner-The Flaming Thumbtacks have quite a few needs but cornerback stands out from the pack. They get a top 5ish talent at #10 overall.
- Pittsburgh: LB Jarvis Jones-The Steelers have needs other than LB. Then again James Harrison isn't getting any younger. Jones is a plug-and-play OLB, seemingly in the Pittsburgh mold. The Steelers ship San Diego #17, their 2013 3rd and 2014 3rd.
- Miami: WR Keenan Allen-Two years in a row the Dolphins sit and wait and get the guy they really did want all along. (And not in that fake GM "we got the guys we really wanted" kind of way.)
- Tampa Bay: CB Johnthan Banks-The Bucs tried to swing a trade with the Titans but the Thumbtacks knew Tampa was likely to take the guy that Tennessee had its sights on. Tampa Bay gets defensive backfield help and send the GM out with the obligatory, "we got the guy we really wanted" line.
- Carolina: DT Jesse Williams-The Panthers spurn offers from Oakland and get some help for the middle of their defensive line.
- Oakland: QB Tyler Wilson-The Raiders succeed in getting back in front of Buffalo by shipping both of their second rounders to New Orleans. Whether the Bills would have taken Wilson is questionable but the Raiders have to feel good about getting one of the higher rated DEs as well as a quarterback to groom behind the aging Carson Palmer.
- St Louis: LB CJ Mosley-Rams don't give Oakland a chance, quite happy with the extra picks they've already garnered by trading down in 2012. LB is a huge need for the Rams and some draftniks don't see much of a drop off from Te'o to Mosley.
- San Diego: OT Taylor Lewan-San Diego's offensive line is a mess. Lewan is a start on the road back to respectability.
- Buffalo: QB-You fill in the name. Landry Jones, EJ Manuel, Tyler Bray, Zac Dysert, Ryan Nassib, Brad Sorensen, etc are all on the board. The Bills don't chance someone like Mike Shanahan drafting a guy just to stash him away from other teams a la Kirk Cousins. Then, because Buffalo got a QB, no other QB gets taken until about round 4.
- NY Giants-DT Johnathan Hankins: The heart of the Giants isn't Eli Manning; it's the defensive line. Hankins is a fringe top 10 talent that the Giants are happy to scoop up (perhaps with a front end loader) in the middle of the round.
- Buffalo: The Bills use the 2nd rounder from Dallas as well as their own 2nd round pick to get back into the first round. Now, who is the selection? Linebacker, Wide Receiver, Cornerback, Tight End and Defensive End are all needs in some order of priority...
Below are the remaining top 50 from the SBNation big board. Which, if any of these players would be worth trading back up for? Which QB would you want at 18? Put your QB and Other Guy combo in the comments. Or, if you'd rather go QB and then take 2 different guys in the 2nd who would they be?
12. Jake Matthews | 6'5, 305 pounds | Offensive tackle | Texas A&M *
13. Dion Jordan | 6'6, 243 pounds | Defensive end | Oregon
15. Sheldon Richardson | 6'4, 295 pounds | Defensive tackle | Missouri *
17. Sam Montgomery | 6'5, 260 pounds | Defensive end | LSU *
19. Barkevious Mingo | 6'5, 240 pounds | Defensive end/Outside linebacker | LSU *
20. Jonathan Cooper | 6'3, 310 pounds | Guard | North Carolina
21. Giovani Bernard | 5'10, 205 pounds | Running back | North Carolina **
22. Khaseem Greene | 6'1, 220 pounds | Outside linebacker | Rutgers
24. Tyler Eifert | 6'6, 251 pounds | Tight end | Notre Dame
25. Ezekiel Ansah | 6'6, 270 pounds | Defensive end | BYU
26. Arthur Brown | 6'1, 228 pounds | Middle linebacker | Kansas State
27. Tavon Austin | 5'9, 174 pounds | Wide receiver | West Virginia
28. Barrett Jones | 6'5, 302 pounds | Center | Alabama
29. Sylvester Williams | 6'3, 320 pounds | Defensive tackle | North Carolina
31. John Jenkins | 6'3, 351 pounds | Defensive tackle | Georgia
32. Zach Ertz | 6'6, 249 pounds | Tight end | Stanford *
33. Alec Ogletree | 6'3, 232 pounds | Middle linebacker | Georgia *
34. DeAndre Hopkins | 6'1, 200 pounds | Wide receiver | Clemson *
35. Shariff Floyd | 6'3, 305 pounds | Defensive tackle | Florida *
37. Cordarrelle Patterson | 6'3, 205 pounds | Wide receiver | Tennessee *
38. Alex Okafor | 6'4, 260 pounds | Defensive end | Texas
40. Logan Ryan | 6'0, 190 pounds | Cornerback | Rutgers *
41. Shayne Skov | 6'3, 251 pounds | Middle linebacker | Stanford
42. Matt Elam | 5'10, 206 pounds | Safety | Florida *
43. Robert Woods | 6'1, 190 pounds | Wide receiver | Southern California *
44. Xavier Rhodes | 6'2, 209 pounds | Cornerback | Florida State *
45. Oday Aboushi | 6'6, 310 pounds | Offensive tackle | Virginia
46. Kenny Vaccaro | 6'1, 215 pounds | Safety | Texas
47. Justin Hunter | 6'4, 200 pounds | Wide receiver | Tennessee *
48. Eric Fisher | 6'8, 305 poundss | Offensive tackle | Central Michigan
49. Bradley Roby | 5'11, 190 pounds | Cornerback | Ohio State **
50. Cornelius Carradine | 6'5, 265 pounds | Defensive end | Florida State