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Buffalo Bills Injury-Prone Players: Risk Assessment

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There are too many players in the NFL that have been labeled "injury-prone" to count, and it's a safe assumption that every team has at least one of those guys. Buffalo Bills fans ask me all the time about such players, since the Bills seem to have so many; as such, I thought it would be interesting to rank those players in terms of risk the team is taking keeping them around in their specific roles.

Yes, this list includes a couple of free agents, and yes, it also includes players that may very well not be around much longer. Still, I consider seven players on the team injury-prone, and a further three as worthy of that label, but at least debatable. On to the list - and you're of course free to disagree not just with the idea that the player is injury-prone, but the risk assessment, as well. The list is after the jump.

Star-divide

10. Reggie Torbor. Yes, Torbor is injury-prone, having missed the team's last 22 games due to two stints on IR. At his peak, however, he was a fill-in outside linebacker pressed into action because of the team's lack of options. The impending free agent carries no risk to the team, and likely won't be back.

9. Roscoe Parrish. For a time, Parrish was a vital cog in Chan Gailey's passing attack. That time was brief, however, as Parrish has played in just 10 games in the past two seasons. Another impending free agent, there's still an argument to be heard regarding re-signing Parrish, I believe, but only that line of thought makes him a risk to the club.

8. Marcus Easley. The former fourth-round pick carries no risk to the club moving forward, as his two seasons on IR have left him on the periphery of wide receiver discussions. The fact that Easley is a former fourth-round pick, however, makes his injury issues slightly more severe, given that he comes from the first draft class of GM Buddy Nix.

7. Aaron Williams. I don't even considering Williams injury-prone - not yet, anyway. His rookie season was marred, however, by chest and leg injuries that kept him out of seven games; it goes without saying that missing that much time will really hinder the development of a player as young as Williams. So while he's not necessarily worthy of the injury-prone label, he's a potential candidate - and the team's likely going to be relying on him defensively. That makes him a potential risk worth monitoring.

6. Shawne Merriman. If this post were written last year, Merriman would obviously have been at the top of it. By the team's own admission, however, the pass rush is their biggest need, and as Merriman's still on the roster, they're obviously no longer counting on him to fix it. That lowers his risk substantially. Man, it'd be nice if this guy just had one healthy season left in him.

5. Kraig Urbik. The second of three players that don't necessarily carry the injury-prone label, Urbik has nonetheless missed time with various minor ailments over the past two seasons; he landed on IR both seasons, although in 2011, it was a minor knee injury suffered at the tail end of the season that did him in. An important figure as a guard and reserve center, there is some risk involved with building around Urbik, with the potential for more.

4. Eric Wood. Sandwiched between two rough season-ending knee injuries in 2009 and 2011, Wood missed two games in 2010. Wood is one of the more prominent known injury risks on the team, and as the Bills are counting on him to lock down the center position for the foreseeable future, there's more risk involved here than most fans are willing to admit.

3. Nick Barnett. Having had such a strong debut season in Buffalo, it's easy to forget that a major part of the reason Barnett was available last summer in the first place is his injury history. Barnett landed on IR in 2008 (knee) and 2010 (wrist). He did, however, make it through 16 games in 2009 and 2011. Barnett ranks so highly on this list because of his tremendous importance to the team's defensive plans, as he is their only true every-down linebacker.

2. Demetrius Bell. Bell missed half of the season in 2009 with a knee injury, was eased back into action in 2010 because of the same injury (though he did appear in all 16 games), then lost nine games to shoulder and knee issues this past season. Still, there is rhetoric that the team would like to bring Bell back at the critical left tackle position, and the majority of Bills fans seem down with the idea (including yours truly).

1. Terrence McGee. Because of his playing style, McGee has always been a player that would miss a game or two and was forced to play through nicks. That reached a boiling point over the last three seasons, when McGee missed a combined total of 22 games. He was injured on the defense's first play from scrimmage this past season, returned, then tore his knee up and landed on IR. He's scheduled to make $3.6 million this year and $4.6 million next year; the Bills would be taking the biggest risk of all paying McGee that type of money to fulfill any type of role defensively.

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With the bills counting on Eric Wood to be the man in the middle they need to find a reliable veteran backup for him. He has proven to be a very valuable player when healthy, however he has missed a significant number of games due to knee injuries. When he went down this season their was a black hole left in his wake.

I would put him in at the #1 position followed by Bell at #2.

by Al Bundy is my hero on Feb 10, 2012 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

Urbik shifts to center. Rinehart is inserted at guard.

That’s more than an adequate backup plan to me.

by Pistol on Feb 10, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know that that’s true, either; Urbik is on this list, too, after all.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®

by Brian Galliford on Feb 10, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know that the idea that Wood’s injury caused the season to tank logically flies. Wood got hurt in Dallas, by which time the team had already been blown out by the Jets. That Jets game started their demise.

Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®

by Brian Galliford on Feb 10, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions  

The “black hole” I was referreing to was specifically they play at the center posistion, not necessarily the downfall of the season was what I meant to say.

Going forward Wood is considered to be a key player for the forseable future, while a player like McGee all ready has one foot out the door. Age and their long term future with the Bills is what makes Wood’s injury history more concerning to me than McGee.

by Al Bundy is my hero on Feb 10, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Very interesting

This is the black box of future sports analytics. Losing a player for 2 games in football is 12.5% of the season. That is a large, large amount of time lost. Maybe teams are already doing it, but figuring out which players’ injuries are likely to recur (and the percentage that they will occur) is the biggest arbitrage value in professional sports. Think of all the money (and as importantly roster spots) that has been poured into some of the above players. You’ll never get a perfect assessment, but factoring in some actual risk assessment into a player’s salary is one way the Bills could do much better in valuing players.

by J09 on Feb 10, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

This is a good point, because how can it possibly be argued that either of Wood’s two season-ending injuries had anything to do with anything besides happening to be in the wrong place at the wrong time?

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Feb 10, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

agreed.....and rec'd

I posted this about Wood on a different thread

I think Wood gets more of a pass because he got his leg snapped in half after starting

10 games as a rookie…can’t really blame him on that one. He only missed two games in 2010, and wasn’t that because CHIX were playing it safe getting him back from that leg injury? This year Wood got hit from the side….

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Wood-could-miss-Miami-game/81db0839-e54e-418a-9010-ab4609e84cf0

just like with the broken leg, I’m not sure you can blame him for getting hurt on that hit. At this point, I am chalking up Wood’s injuries to bad luck.

In contrast, players like McGee, Parrish, and Bell’s injuries seem to be a product of just playing football…..nothing extraordinary seems to happen to cause the injury….their bodies just can’t seem to hold up to the abuse.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 10, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

The point

though is that Wood has some degree of risk that these injuries will recur. (i.e. The person with the highest risk of a heart attack is someone who already has had one). I think these were freak occurrences but they still impart some degree of risk going forward. NFL teams spend 125 million dollars on player revenue. A smart team will spend a fraction of that every year figuring out an actual percentage for a players injury risk.

by J09 on Feb 10, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

The knee could be a concern moving forward.....but the broken leg??????

Correct me if I am wrong, but Woods broken leg should be stronger than his other leg.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 10, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, that is generally the case. I remember reading many reports when it happened that stated that his leg bone should heal and be even stronger than it was before.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 10, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

REC, great points. I think the two you mentioned (McGee, Parrish), will likely not be with the Bills next season.

Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67

by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Feb 10, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

not buying A Williams as injury prone, he and for example D Jones just had a bad luck year, not deserving this tag … yet

by the billsfan on Feb 10, 2012 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

I still feel Wood had bad luck.

Anyone in his position in his rookie year would have broken their leg.
The missed games from year two I think were a result of year 1.
Year 3 I can make no excuse for.

"Everyone who has conducted an expedition will know how ready the world is to do the great injustice of heaping the whole praise or blame for its success or failure on the shoulders of the leader alone."
-Polar Explorer Fridtjof Nansen

by NordicBillsfan on Feb 10, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Injuries or Bad Luck? How to Tell?

Ok, it is certainly reasonable t say that both of Aaron Williams’s injuries last season were due to bad luck, but why can’t someone make the same argument about Bell? Bell’s big knee injury in 2009 came against the Titans when he was making a spectacular run-block to free up Fred Jackson and someone happened to roll up his leg at a moment when he was most vulnerable. Does that make him injury-prone, or unlucky? Ditto for Nick Barnett, who had some bad luck in 2008 and 2010 in Green Bay but looked pretty durable this last year for the Bills.

by Macktruck on Feb 10, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

(Continued)

For some reason my comment got posted before I was finished (also my comment was a reply to “thebillsfan” but ended up as a separate post — the system is pretty screwy this week).

Anyway, my point is not to excuse every player who keeps getting injured as unlucky, but rather to note that it is very hard to tell whether there is a problem or not. The medical staff probably has a hard enough time making that distinction with their direct knowledge; I’m not sure fans can do it at all with any accuracy.

by Macktruck on Feb 10, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Top 4

Merriman
Parrish
McGee
Bell

I wouldn’t be one bit disappointed of any of the 4 above were released… All 4 have major problems staying healthy and 3 out of the four have heavy contracts…

Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.

Vince Lombardi

by Goose22 on Feb 10, 2012 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

keep in mind...

that saving money just to save money is not productive, in and of itself. Cutting any of these players because they are not delivering full value is only productive if that money is then spent somewhere else. Wouldn’t you be disappointed if they cut those four players and then do very little in free agency? Or if they cut those players, do little in free agency, AND fail to resign Stevie Johnson?

@sawyervanhorn

by Sawyer in Boston on Feb 10, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed
delivering full value is only productive if that money is then spent somewhere else

They have been injured so often it is dead money. Money saved needs to be spent to keep talent on hand or acquire talent to continue to build…

.

Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.

Vince Lombardi

by Goose22 on Feb 10, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Goose

You forgot Eric Wood!

by rexachss on Feb 10, 2012 6:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Can’t bring myself to give up on Wood just yet maybe because I want him to succeed so badly…

Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.

Vince Lombardi

by Goose22 on Feb 11, 2012 8:00 AM EST up reply actions  

The good thing is 4 of these guys (Torbor, Merriman, McGee, Parrish) most likely won’t be Bills next year – Merriman is the iffy one but his past injury history gives me zero confidence in him actually making it through camp.

I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman

by J2 on Feb 10, 2012 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

agreed.....given how desperate we are for a pass rush

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Merriman be given one more year

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 10, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

given how desperate we are for a pass rush I wouldn’t be surprised to see Merriman be given one more year

I would – it’s not like they’ve done anything that can be construed as productive, or logical, or having implemented an actual plan in that area anyways….

:)

I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman

by J2 on Feb 10, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

true, but it is kind of like the Dareus pick......a no brainer

a healthy Merriman is easily our best pass rusher. Even CHIX can’t screw that one up :-)

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 10, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

but can we assess, and believe in his actual health?

I wonder about this. We somehow didn’t know that Kyle Williams achilles was bothering him. We tried some kind of new scar tissue removal procedure for Merriman… and that didn’t do junk. He is doing MMA training, and all in all- he shouldn’t have roided up. That is the fact of the matter.

We might as well sign Lattimer from “The Program.”

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 10, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no way to know for sure, but given how desparate we are for a pass rusher

I would be willing to take the risk with Merriman more than any of the other high risk guys like McGee, Parrish….Bell is close.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 10, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

oh, i am ok with a contract that is incentive laden

and otherwise him not costing much at all. I think that was how we signed him initially.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 10, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think Dareus was a no brainier – he was an easy safe choice and i’m glad they took him because i’ve always thought Blaine Gabbert had zero chance of being successful (ask me why – you’ll laugh) but we had other ways we could have went. AJ Green and PP come immediately to mind.

But Dareus was the safe bet – no question

I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman

by J2 on Feb 10, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.....given we picked at 3, any of those guys could have been the pick and been good picks in hindsight

I call it a no brainer pick for exactly the reason you said…..he was the safest (least likely to bust) pick. After some of the other first round picks we have made….safe was OK with me.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 10, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll bite----Why (I enjoy a good laugh)
Blaine Gabbert had zero chance of being successful (ask me why – you’ll laugh)

Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.

Vince Lombardi

by Goose22 on Feb 10, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

his name.

There’s zero chance a guy named Blaine Gabbert ever becomes a successful NFL QB. A Haynes underwear model – sure. NFL QB – no f’in chance.

I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman

by J2 on Feb 10, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

while i find you humorous

i suspect that once they change their system this year, and add a couple targets (they are completely devoid) that he could end up a successful QB. on this, we disagree.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 10, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

we may – but by my sound logic – you will be proven wrong.

I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman

by J2 on Feb 10, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

lol. yeah. probably.

That logic, is nearly infallible. ahahaa

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 10, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL

Blaine is right up there with~ Trent (Edwards), Cade (McNown),Akili (Smith)and Omar (Jacobs)-:)

Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.

Vince Lombardi

by Goose22 on Feb 10, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I do agree with this logic. Somehow all superstars have superstar names or at least just simple common ones. Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Eli Manning…etc. I honestly had the same feeling that Blaine was a miss. And I don’t think he will get better. He looked awful, rookie or not. Jax is gonna be rough for a few more years at least.

"What it takes to win is simple, it's not easy."

-Marv Levy

by ALLaBorde on Feb 10, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Good Article

Definitely things the Bills have to think about. As much as it hurts me to say, Merriman should be first on this list. Had the potential to be one of the greatest outside linebackers to play the game, he can’t stay healthy anylonger. One of my favorite players coming out of college, i had hoped he would have been drafted by the Bills. Now that he is here, I wish he was still with the Chargers.

Parrish is also one of my favorite players coming out of college, but he can’t stay healthy either. Bills will likely draft a replacement for him. Parrish could have been the Lance Moore or Wes Welker of this offense.

I think McGee is likely gone. Age and injuries the factors and most fans will miss him. You have to admire his tenacious play. Torbor is a FA, so he won’t be back the Bills can draft his replacement.
I think Bell will be back, but should have an incentive laiden contract because of past injuries. I also believe the Bills should draft a back up that is a C/G combo just in case Woods has another freak injury. I hope he can stay healthy, he is the leader on that offense.
I hope Easley has overcome the heart issue. Does anyone know what exactly the issue was?

Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67

by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Feb 10, 2012 2:54 PM EST reply actions  

Tackle

I think drafting a tackle would be better only because a tackle can always move in to guard.

That would free up Urbik without sacrificing any size and Urbik was a pretty decent center.

The chances of Urbik and wood getting hurt in the same game are slim.

I’m pulling for Merriman it is just that achilles. I mean it is the same thing.

Where as with D. Bell it is his Shoulder and He somehow played on one leg basically this year.

I would offer incentive heavy contracts to D. Bell and Parrish. It is easy to forget how amazing Parrish is just in his punt returning skills.

He would be our Ted Ginn Jr. He says he is healthy and having him in the slot doesn’t make us a worse team.

by mike$bills on Feb 10, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Not trying to be a smart$ss, but.........
The chances of Urbik and wood getting hurt in the same game are slim.

That already happened. Last year.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 10, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Wasn’t it two years in a row that happened? Or am I just getting mixed up?

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Feb 10, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think so.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 10, 2012 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Whose Important?

Aaron Williams
Eric Woods
Maybe D Bell………..

by Pablo Escobar on Feb 10, 2012 4:11 PM EST reply actions  

Barnett is pretty important.

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Feb 10, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Easley could end up being, if healthy, and the same with McGee- he would be also, if healthy.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 10, 2012 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree with you on Easley. I just don’t see McGee being able to stay healthy anymore.

Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin. -- stetzwebs
No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Feb 11, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

#24 missed 12 games in his 1st 7 seasons

thats not bad considering his playing style & duel responsibilities, Caught up to him the last 2 years but far from #1 on the list. -Bell, Roscoe, Merriman, Easly easy top 4.

"Will&Work2Win"coach Karma420

by Blood, sweat & Win on Feb 11, 2012 8:54 AM EST reply actions  

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