Mother of all Stats -- Part 2

by tarvismonroe on Feb 11, 2012 7:40 AM EST

Mother of All Stats – Defense

Previously, I did an analysis to see which statistics correlated most strongly to offensive points. The results showed that 1st downs and passing yards were most related to points; whereas rushing offense did not correlate with scoring points.

Now here is the analysis of defensive stats. I chose the 8 teams that allowed fewer than 20 points per game allowed. I added “average ranking” to the table to more clearly see the average ranking of the top 8 teams for each statistic.

	Yards	Pass	Rush	1st	3rd	Pen.	P YPA	R YPA	Sacks	Int
Pitt	1	1	8	1	19	6	1	9	17	24
SF	4	16	1	2	11	15	10	1	7	2
Balt	3	4	2	4	2	32	3	2	3	17
Houston	2	3	4	5	14	2	2	11	6	13
Cleveland	10	2	30	13	24	4	5	21	23	28
Miami	15	25	3	15	7	28	18	3	10	16
Seattle	9	11	15	15	9	20	11	4	19	4
Tenn	18	14	24	20	23	9	4	22	31	24
Avg	7.8	9.5	10.9	9.3	13.6	14.5	6.8	9.1	14.5	16

The answer, based on the data, was clearly passing yards allowed per attempt allowed. Teams that allow fewer yards per attempt generally allow fewer points.

3rd down defense, sacks and interceptions were not very important. Pittsburgh was able to field a dominant defense with none of them. And the average ranking for the top 8 teams in each of those statistics was all in the middle of the pack.

Generally, teams that stopped the number of yards opponents were able to gain through the air were the most successful defenses.

In some cases, teams were able to compensate for a poor rush defense with a solid pass defense (see Miami); however, a general trend was that most of the best defenses were balanced, especially among the top 4 defensive units. If you were to look at the bottom 5 defenses by points allowed, you would find the same trend: lack of balance results in points. Teams that have exceptionally poor running defense, or exceptionally poor passing defense, give up a ton of points.

So, for the Bills to improve, we should be able to limit our opponents’ passing attack, be balanced enough to field a solid passing defense and solid rushing defense, and do our best to stop opponents from getting 1st downs.

Check back later for part 3, which will examine whether defense or offense is more related to wins. And finally part 4 -- how do the Bills do in the most important statistical categories.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

Interesting that the two SB teams are not even on this list....

but to be fair, the Pats and especially the Giants defense didn’t start playing well until December. I think that a defense can be average at stopping the run and still get by. But in a pass happy league, they must be able to take away or at least limit a team’s best receiving weapon. In order to do that, teams need a combination of consistent pressure from their pass rush and at least one shut down corner. The Bills currently have neither.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 11, 2012 10:45 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

I think that a defense can be average at stopping the run and still get by. But in a pass happy league, they must be able to take away or at least limit a team’s best receiving weapon. In order to do that, teams need a combination of consistent pressure from their pass rush and at least one shut down corner. The Bills currently have neither.

Rec’d. Very well stated, Joe P.

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by thefourwinds on Feb 11, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

sort of disagree

the way it’s worked out, pressure is everything. the good teams have at least two viable WRs, backs that can catch, and options at TE. One shutdown guy won’t do it for you. Not that there’s not value in a total shutdown CB, but… teams are so deep with receiving threats these days.

pressure on the other hand limits the availability of ALL receiving options. if you have just good corners, but excellent pressure, you can stay with even the best QBs.

by lord gloom on Feb 11, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

You put your best CB on their best WR to take them out of the game or at least limit the damage

Most teams don’t have two Calvin Johnson types on their team. So while having more than one Revis would be great, it is not necessary. Pressure may help limit the deep ball, but defenses that can’t cover at least one of those WRs one on one can’t get off the field. The Bills offense is an example of an offense based on negating pass rush by getting the ball out before the pass rush can get there. You need both.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 11, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

still disagree

in a passing league, the shutdown corner is ironically an outdated concept because teams run the spread and have so many viable receiving threats.

most teams don’t even have ONE calvin johnson type on their team. your overall coverage needs to be sound, with players who have a good knowledge of their responsibilities.

you’d take revis over any corner in the league, sure. but the jets had a good passing defense last year because EVERYONE did their jobs.

it’s also a bit of an oversimplification to say that pressure only stops the deep ball. e.g. Jason Pierre Paul batting down two balls in the super bowl.

by lord gloom on Feb 11, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

a bit of an oversimplification....that is putting it mildly :-)

but so is saying

pressure on the other hand limits the availability of ALL receiving options.

offenses find ways to take advantage of pressure too.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 11, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

not really

isn’t that the inherent definition of pressure?

if you mean failed pass rush (ie the bills :P) then sure. but granted that no pass rush (or coverage) is going to do its job 100% of the time, i still feel that pressure is better than a single shutdown guy.

by lord gloom on Feb 12, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

And I still say you need both...

If you only have one, it’s kind of like a car with a flat tire……doesn’t really matter which tire is flat, you’re not going very far.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 12, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

well

who’s the shutdown corner in NYG?

coverage is more of a chemistry thing than an individual standout thing – that’s what I’m saying. It’s like offensive line. o-line and defensive backfield are the two most chemistry-dependent positions on the field.

by lord gloom on Feb 12, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

anyway

this is the last thing i’ll say, but what I mean boils down to this: in an era when tight ends can run and backs can catch and teams routinely run four or even five wide, a single shutdown guy’s impact is highly, HIGHLY mitigated.

by lord gloom on Feb 12, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions

agreed, but it is still up to individual players to make plays....

Maybin got cut because….well, let’s not go there…let’s just say he wasn’t getting to the QB. Let’s try this another way……would you rather have Revis or Mario Williams? Both can make game changing plays. Both affect the game in ways that don’t show up on the stats sheet. Guess I am greedy…..I want both.

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 12, 2012 10:45 AM EST up reply actions

i also sorta disagree

13-3 implies that the Pats played pretty well. Unless you meant the Pats’ defense, and the Giants’ defense, in which case “defenses” would have made that less confusing.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

yes....the Pats D....sorry for the confusion

"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden

"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu

by Joe P. on Feb 11, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

1 letter

but it kinda changes the statement. I assumed that was what you meant. Their defense was definitely suspect. Arrington (who i only noticed after the first time we met them) played amazingly this year. Apart from him, and chung, and the fatties (their DTs are SO big)… i thought there LBs, and DBs and DEs were what we knew they were. Weak. They have as few pass rusher as we do. They will address that with their AGAIN 2 first round picks. I really despise that team. I just can’t help it.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

I think you pretty much hit the nail on the head there.

Personally I think that he have the tools in the secondary needed to have a good pass defense. But because we had absolutely no pass rush, our secondary was able to be as effective as it could have been. I mean lets be honest, no secondary can cover all receivers for 6 to 8 seconds on each play; someone will get open and even an average QB will find them.

We have good CB’s, great safeties (I think that we’ve got a top 3 duo in Byrd and Wilson), but if we don’t force the QB to throw the ball before he’s gone threw all his progressions, twice, then they don’t stand a chance. And that’s pretty much what we saw.

We can have a good D if we just add some sort of pass rush and our rushing D improves middle of the pack.

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by CanadianBillsFan on Feb 11, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

Another stat that was mentioned often by another analyst group

is the Defensive Passer Rating. Basically the cumulative rating of all QB’s against the team’s defense. This one also correlates pretty strongly with victory – goes to show how important stopping the pass is.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Feb 11, 2012 4:48 PM EST reply actions