Why I'm so focused on drafting QB Brock Osweiler with #42 pick
by wpod on Feb 11, 2012 11:18 AM EST
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PrintI enjoy having this discussion but I don't believe I've expressed exactly why I'm focused on using a second round pick to take Brock Osweiler at QB. It's because of what that would represent for OBD to be doing - it would be OBD investing in a gamble that they might be able to develop a QB prospect with a high upside into something special for the future. Not just taking a backup prospect.
They gambled like this when they moved back up into the first round to take Losman in 2004 but that was a bad gamble and it worked out poorly for the Bills. But the motivation is the same.
With Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB the Bills could continue to improve and they might, at best, challenge for a wildcard playoff spot. I hope that happens. But for the longer term, for the Buffalo Bills to have the potential to one day be a legitimate Super Bowl contender again, as they were in the late 80s/early 90s, they would need to have (among many other pieces) a SPECIAL QB. That is what, in the best case scenario, Brock Osweiler represents to me - the Bills' best chance at selecting and developing a rookie QB prospect whose physical talent and whose performance at least has shown glimmers of potential greatness to turn into something special.
The Bills haven't had that since they took Jim Kelly in 1984 - and taking Losman was an absolute ABORTION of an attempt to recreate that chemistry - and it's high time they thought about taking that kind of gamble again, given the right opportunity. I view the 2012 draft and taking Osweiler with the #42 pick as the next appropriate opportunity for the Bills to invest a high draft pick in potential greatness for their future. I know that's a gamble. I know there is no guarantee Osweiler will develop into something special, and even if he does, the Bills would need to build a whole lot more around him. But as a fan, I want to see OBD go for it this time. I want to BILLieve again.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.
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I disagree with your fundamental assumption that Osweiler is a high upside prospect. Lots of the scouting reports I trust, including the below quoted excerpt from the National Football Post, suggest that he might have the talent, some day to maybe fight for a starting job if everything else goes right for him and if he learns a ton about being a QB. From the NFP …
The guy has some talent and can sling the football. However, much like Ryan Mallett last season, he’s going to need to play in an offense where he can throw the football down the field and isn’t going to be forced to make many quick throws underneath, where he struggles with timing, footwork and ball placement.
If everything falls into place for Osweiler, meaning he develops as a quarterback mentally, has time to work at his trade and falls into a perfect fit for him physically (Steelers, Patriots, Raiders) he does have the talent to eventually fight for a starting job in the NFL. However, he rates much closer to a developmental later round pick and reminds me some of Cardinals QB John Skelton.
I also disagree with the thought that Osweiler is a 2nd round pick. He’ll go behind Tannehill and Foles, and likely also behind Cousins and Weeden. He seems like a late 4th/early 5th round pick to me.
Last concern is that Osweiler does not fit Chan’s offense. CHIX will draft CHIX players. Osweiler struggles most making short throws underneath, which is a staple of the Bills offense
Not sure you are right
I believe Osweiler had a 63.7% accuracy rating last year in an offense that relied mainly on quick, short throws. His biggest problem is that he has an atomic cannon (that’s a major step up from a mere cannon) for an arm and tends to overthrow a lot. That, however, is the kind of issue that can respond to good coaching. His throwing motion and footwork are very good, and he is incredibly athletic, so there’s a lot to work with. The basic story is that Osweiler could develop into a true franchise QB, but will likely need a couple of years of development before he is ready. Nonetheless his potential is high enough that he will almost certainly go in the 2nd round. He might be a reasonable gamble, as wpod says, depending on how the Bills’ scouting staff assesses his prospects.
by Macktruck on Feb 11, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you, Macktruck
Your assessment of Osweiler reinforces what I’ve been learning by reading about him. The reason I’m interested in him is his potential for future greatness, however remote that potential might be for now. And I wonder how interested Jim Kelly would become in the Bills developing a prospect like this as a long term project?
Just wondering…
I agree with Mcgrathp, i have read very similar reports on him. He grades out as a 4th to 5th round project that needs about 3 years to develop. So i would have no problem with the selection in that area, but no way would i agree with throwing a 2nd rounder at him, when we could nail a starter this season in the 2nd round at linebacker or defensive end, that pending who we select with our 1st pick.
Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67
by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Feb 11, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Osweiler is going in Round 2
No QB prospect with an arm like his who has his kind of unique physical characteristics and his kind of potential is going to last long in the draft, regardless of where the board graded him out at. There will be GMs of clubs that need a QB of the future who will be willing to take the gamble. QBs are drafted based on their talent and potential, not what they’ve already accomplished. Watch.
Don't know about Osweiler
But sounds like he has a unique blend of talents. Last year Kaepernick had a unique skill set (not comparing the two per se) and he went in the second. I wouldn’t mind the Bills spending their 42 on a QB personally. Or even trading up a few if they think their guy will get picked ahead of 42. In fact I would LOVE for the Bills to take a QB early, but I just don’t see it happening.
by buffaloparks on Feb 12, 2012 12:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i agree with mcgrathp
from what i’ve read Tannehill will go in round one . that leaves Foles early two whom from what i seen has better all around technic . honestly … since we are talking taking a risk … before Osweiler i’d rather wait a round and take Darron Thomas in a later round .
Thomas really?
Yikes man. He struggles in the pocket and can be very inaccurate at times…I think he made a huge mistake coming out early.
The score dictated they pass
by norcaliangelsfan on Feb 12, 2012 11:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Disagree
The Bills have to many positions to fill, they can not afford to gamble on a 2nd round pick.
by Winnie33 on Feb 11, 2012 11:44 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
I will agree to disagree with you regarding whether Osweiler has a high upside – that is EXACTLY what all those comments about his talent and also his unique physical characteristics indicate, to me. I’ve read some good in depth analysis based on watching his game tapes and people are seeing him showing glimmers of potential greatness. He is extremely raw. It’s going to take a situation where he is given time and good, patient coaching to develop his thinking, his footwork, his delivery. There is absolutely no guarantee. But he is a high upside QB prospect and someone is going to reach and gamble on being able to develop him into something special, based on those glimmers of potential greatness, his unique physical tools, and his POTENTIAL. I’d like that someone to be the Buffalo Bills with the #42 pick. I know a lot of Bills fans won’t agree with my assessment. I frankly don’t care. I believe Osweiler has the potential to be a special NFL QB and I believe the Buffalo Bills haven’t had a QB prospect they could legitimately feel that way about since Jim Kelly.
Speaking of Jim Kelly…
Interesting
Let’s see now.
He ran a spread offense in college. Chan likey.
He has a freakin’ cannon. Buddy likey.
He’s 6’ 8" !!!
He was accurate. 63%, 4,036 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs. Chan likey.
From CBS sports draft analysis:
Accuracy: Good accuracy overall, including excellent accuracy on short timing routes to backs and receivers, placing the ball slightly in front to lead receivers to potential yardage gained after the catch. Flashes good anticipation and is willing to release passes before the receiver has made his break. Good zip and ball placement on the quick slant. Good touch down the seam and on post-corner, flag routes to attack the defense vertically and horizontally. Good accuracy and zip on crossing routes over the middle. Not often asked to roll out and throw on the move in this offense but demonstrates the ability to do so, especially when rolling to his right.
So, I guess it would not really surprise me if Buddy pulled the trigger WPOD, but I think it is unlikely that high in the 2nd round.
Wouldn’t seeing him do this for us on Sundays at the Ralph give you all goosebumps?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgChtbodoI4&feature=related
"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 11, 2012 12:12 PM EST reply actions
Definitely SMT!
I don’’t follow college football that closely, so this is the first time I’ve seen him. He does have one hell of an arm!
Damn
Thats a cannon arm! Yes…I would like that very much SMT. Very much indeed! And thanks for the high quality video link.
by buffaloparks on Feb 12, 2012 12:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm not agaist drafting Osweiler
some scouting reports I have seen are have him going in the late first round, but the average seems to be somewhere in rounds 2-3. Taking a QB in the second round might be two high for CHIX taste. The highest I expect to see the Bills take a QB would be round 3.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
Hell Yeah, Sergeant Major Thor! Hell Yeah!
We’ll work on the ‘when’ part in terms of when CHIX would need to pull the trigger to get Osweiler in the 2012 draft. Love the clip you posted. Now just imagine Jim Kelly’s reaction if/when the Bills were to invest in a QB prospect like Osweiler? I’m thinking that could get VERY interesting, too…
Just wanted to say that I thought losman
Was a good pick but the bills asked him to do things that he wasn’t good at too early. Losman was a bootleg playaction qb and we tried to make him a pocket qb too early and too fast
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 11, 2012 1:11 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I would like to see us take him.
IF we have 1 of these 4 needs addressed before the draft: CB, WR, DE, or SLB.
With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.
Kinda agree here
I can definitely respect this line of reasoning. But, if they think he (or anyone) is the man to groom then you pull the trigger. That being said I really think they’ll have at least one of those addressed before the draft, and will address another with pick 10.
by buffaloparks on Feb 12, 2012 12:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Here's my view
Lets just if and I mean a “Big If”. Chan and Buddy decided to trade down our 1st rd pick to pickup another team 2nd or 3rd rd pick for instance the Bengals,Seattle or Dallas. We get the BPA in the 1st rd then pickup Curry or a WR and then with the addtional 2nd rd pick we go for this QB. I think this guy could be a project in the making and I’d rather see us getting him than the Pats (which I truely doubt they would do), Jets or Miami picking him up and we all know that both these teams are looking for a QB somewhere either in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rd possibly.
If we pickup Mario Williams here’s how our draft would look in my world;
1st rd- Melvin Ingram 4-3 DT/3-4OLB, Hightower SILB, (I’m even up for Burflict with this pick because I’m ready to see Tommy Boy on crutches after he’s been hit by this beast.)
2nd rd-Curry,Irvin, Cam Johnson or TE’s Allen or Fleener-do it here cause the Pats and Giants are looking to fill this for the upcoming season.
2nd rd via trade-Osweiler QB or TE
3rd rd-Trumaine Johnson DB, Travis Lewis 4-3 OLB, or Nate Potter LOT
3rd rd via trade-Ladarius-Green TE, Marvin Mcnutt WR
4th rd-Cliff Harris DB, Stephen Hill WR, or Tommy Streeter
4th rd-Kirk Cousins QB (this is a reach pick in my opinion) if we lose out on Osweiler, plus I don’t see Chan or Buddy wanting to grab Weeden since he’s turning 28 yrs old this year.
5th rd-Brian Quick WR
Drafting a QB
I do not want a QB that does not have first round pedigree, period.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 6:05 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
So
no guys like Tom Brady?
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
Tom Brady, in hindsight, had first-round pedigree and was taken in the 6th round. I’m not going into this discussion again, because we have it on this site every three days, but the chances of getting a franchise QB after the first round go down DRASTICALLY, and Tom Brady is the obvious and overused exception to the rule.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Considering we’re talking about using an early Round 2 pick on him and that he played on a bad college team and that he is being mentioned in first round conversations now…what is your definition of ‘first-round pedigree’ when you’re willing to extend that to Tom Brady? How are you disqualifying Brock Osweiler from consideration?
The way QBs fly off the board these days, anyone taken after the first round has a considerably lower chance to succeed. Therefore, anyone still around at pick 42 I don’t trust to be a successful long term NFL QB, period.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Pick 40
I seem to recall this as the magic number based on some DJ posts and analysis. 42 is pretty close…You could realistically see a guy “falling” to 42 that has top 40 pick potential :)
by buffaloparks on Feb 12, 2012 12:43 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Perhaps…if OBD did go for a QB at 42, I’d obviously get behind him fully…I just don’t trust the odds.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
I hear ya!
The odds do start to drop quite dramatically out of Rd 1. While I doubt Chix cares much about the odds vs their talent evaluations, you can’t discount it. Let’s hope Buddy nails this draft and offseason no matter who he picks!
by buffaloparks on Feb 12, 2012 2:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The issues with tom brady coming out of college
Was reading the defenses he was super slow at it he put in the work and presto a sissy god was born
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 11, 2012 8:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not sure that has anything to do with anything. If Brady were in this year’s draft, knowing the kind of QB he would be, he would be taken with the #1 pick. Therefore, with hindsight, he’d be a first round QB.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Oh good lord
you can’t use hindsight to give 6th round QB’s first round pedigrees. If we could do that, no team would miss on a draft pick, ever.
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
Exactly my point, which is why Brady doesn’t matter, at all, when discussing who to take this year.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Well he does
when you say you only want a QB with a first round pedigree, then when I bring up the obvious counterpoint, you say wekll no, actually Brady did have a first round pedigree.
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
As I said, he’s an obvious and very rare exception to an obvious rule. He was a first-round QB taken in the 6th round, which is the one 6th round QB that became a successful QB in the past 20 years. Teams can’t keep taking 6th rounders hoping for the next Brady. That would be dumb. Which is why he has nothing to do with the discussion. If you want the Bills to take 6th rounders until they land on a Brady-type player, or even a franchise QB at all, I’m very glad you’re not our GM.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Your missing the point here
You know the real reason, that on average first round QB’s are more successful? Statistical probability. The first round has 32 picks. The rest of the draft has like 200. That’s all it is. There’s been too many successful QB’s from the rest of the draft, to say it’s anything else.
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
No, that makes no sense. It’s not the number, it’s the percentage:
1st – 46%
2nd – 21%
3rd – 13%
and the drop off is huge from there. It has nothing to do with anything else besides the fact that first round QBs are better, not that there are more of them.
There is no reason to use a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick on a QB in my opinion, because it’s easier to find starters and depth at other positions besides QB, and the chance of the QB even being a starter, let alone a successful one, for the long term is slim to none. No thanks.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd like to see
your raw numbers
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
Here's a good analysis done by Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/drafting-quarterbacks/
If you don’t feel like reading it, here is the conclusion made:
“The conclusion here is simple: if you need a quarterback, draft a one as early as possible. If you draft a quarterback after the 48th overall pick, temper expectations. There’s a reason Tom Brady’s story stands out: he’s the only quarterback of 262 drafted after pick 100 since 1980 to have a CAV over 100. Only Mark Brunell and Trent Green are close, but Brady’s CAV/year is a full 4 points higher than theirs, putting him in a class apart. If teams want a good quarterback, they must draft one early.”
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
by StroudFanClub on Feb 12, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Also, using a single glaring exception to a rule does not in any way prove the rule. Using Tom Brady makes no sense. He’s a once-in-a-generation example. the other franchise QBs in the NFL were picked much, much higher, most in the first round.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Tom Brady
Kurt Warner
Andy Dalton
Jeff Garcia
Tony Romo
Warren Moon
MArc Bulger
Drew Brees
David Garrard
Randall Cunningham
Elvis Grbac
Jake Delhomme
All succesful guys who have played in the last 12 years
All guys that have recently lead thier teams, to playoffs, superbowls, and pro bowls, and I know I’m missing some guys.
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
And I'm sure I'm missing some
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
You can name many of them, of course. As I mentioned again, 21% of QBs taken in the 2nd round are successful. Since 21% > 0%, you can obviously name QBs that were successful that were not first rounders. This is not impressive.
Again, I am not interested on rolling the dice on drafting one of these guys when THE CHANCES ARE SO MUCH HIGHER FOR FIRST ROUNDERS. That is all I’m going to say, since I didn’t want to have this redundant argument anyway.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
What your not getting
IS EVERY DRAFT PICK IS A FREAKING DICE ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!
Also break the numbers down further
Unless you get one of the top 2 QB’s in a draft, your chances of finding a franchise guy drop dramatically.
Basically after the top 2 guys are off the board it’s a crapshoot. ANd do you think were getting Luck or RGIII?
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
i am only chiming in, because I agree with THIS point
Though, I DID look up a list of all QBs drafted, and what round, since 96 to 2008 (had to do rest manually but it wasn’t that many) and really, the stats are visibly higher for 1st, and SOME second round guys. Other than that, you would be hard pressed to find more than a handful, in a DECADE. I can post the list….
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
This list
Matt Hasselbeck – Rd 6
Tom Brady – Rd 6
Tony Romo- Undrafted
Matt Schaub – Rd 3
Luke Mccown – Rd 4
Kyle Orton – Rd 4
Matt Cassel – Rd 7
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Rd 7
Colt Mccoy – Rd 3
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
I wouldn’t want most of those guys on the Bills, so again, I’m not sure why any of that is relevant.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
no. no no, no no no no
hahaha.
i don’t like em either.
what i am saying, is here is EVERY QB drafted, and the round they are taken, and when you look through that year by year, starters are in the first round. Good luck finding many other GOOD QBs beyond the first, let alone, starters.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I posted this about a year ago
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/2/13/1992311/another-piece-of-the-qb-puzzle
If someone wants to update it, be my guest.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
yo!
while we are on QBs- i rewatched the denver game against us.
Tebow is already bring his arm up higher, and is more compact. He is holding the ball with two hands more, which helps this (and with his handoffs/draws/fakes too) but ulitmately his motion is already better. It is NOT compact. He pulls from way down- just above the knee sometimes- but his motion on the top side is much closer to the body, and less sidearm. He was doing that better earlier in the game than later, so he just needs to keep working that routine, and getting that muscle memory, and we could see more improvement. That said: Kurt Warner. Whatever. The kid wins. I like him too. But, he isn’t what “i am looking for”. that doesn’t mean i would be upset to have him. I think Elway shares this view. I think he is the guy there, and they will work with finding a veteran to back him up, that isn’t Brady Quinn. Maybe hasselbeck if he were cut? seneca wallace? idk. some guy who can run that system, and also create SOME kind of competition/mentoring.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
That is probably the way things will play out for Tebow in Denver
No way Elway can dump him now. And I still think that is what Elway wanted to do. The only way they can dump Tebow is if they got Manning or Luck….maybe RG3.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
or was it not you that i was discussing Tebow with?
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 12, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
we talked a little about Tebow.....but I did assume you confused me
with another poster you were having a conversation with.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
to clarify....a more recent conversation....I didn't make the shift
from what we were talking about above regarding first round QBs and what we talked about a few days ago with Tebow.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
werd up
"mmmm... Glen honey, I have a question for you... What do you do for a living?"
"I have a question for you, too. Why are you still here?" ~ Glen Quagmire (Giggity Giggity Giggity Goo!)
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 13, 2012 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
I mean, if you go through this, you can clearly see 1st round vs all other rounds (and yes the total number of player pool is larger for later selections) but I bet you don’t see a whole lot of QBs, outside the first, MAYBE second round, before you see a buncha nothing. I think I owe DJ an apology, because I think that though I believe the POSSIBILITY of their success rides on there situation/opportunity (which is always less because earlier selections=more cost/more potential, that ones picked earlier have more success ultimately. That stats do kinda show that. I still believe later round guys can develop onto starters, or be great, but it is much much harder for them, simply due to the nature of the league. Basically, the deck is stacked against later rounders, as capable as they may be. But, the number of “starters” that are drafted in the 1st round vs “busts”/ later rounders with success is staggeringly different.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How am I not getting that? I’m talking about probabilities of success. Obviously I understand it’s all a dice role. But the dice are heavily in favor of the first rounders, so I’m not sure why you’re still arguing that point. The chances are not worth it to me to draft someone later.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
in actuality
every QB brings an inherent 50/50 chance. I think that is what he means. 1st rounds bust, and later rounds SOMETIMES succeed, but ultimately, first rounders are given more opportunity, out of need, cost, impression, potential or whatever reason they were rated higher, and rarely do you find out of the many many others selected: any starters. So, I think I too agree that the earlier the better, as a rule of thumb. Yes there will be exceptions. Look at Mallett. Someday, because he was selected in the 3rd, and behind Brady, he will look like a huge steal, again. (to BB credit, no doubt.) but in actuality, he slid due to character issues, and he is being kept in check now, so it falls out of mind. so there might be reasons for those exceptions.
A few guys though, in the league now, could add to the fact that the younger QBs now, are more familiar with concepts, if only from video games. And so, 2nd rounders (Dalton/kolb) or even 5TH ROUND guys like Yates, or Skelton, could prove to be capable QBs. So I think the past 15 years or so it has been clearly a first round is necessary. But I am hoping (expecting) that in the future, that we could see more QBs “developed” in later rounds, behind a “starter” and the Reichs (he was a 3rd) of the world, will start to be seen as just as capable, if not, slightly smaller, or less strong arms, or whatever.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
heck, look at Colt McCoy in that regard
he did/does a pretty darn good job with what he has to work with. he is like a Naaman Roosevelt at QB. Maybe you doubt him, but he doesn’t doubt himself. Sure, he isn’t prototype, but he finds a way to compete. I respect that. I wish Chan would have used him more (i have “beat that horse drum” a WHOLE bunch… )
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
My argument is really simple, though. The earlier, the higher probability. Because of that, and because the way the probabilities are so skewed, I don’t want anyone past the first round.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 11, 2012 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Also, I don’t believe that every QB comes with a 50/50 chance. I think that first rounders have a higher chance of success than those taken in later rounds (while not reaching, of course). But yes, the earlier the better. What it boils down to is that I don’t want someone who is a #42 pick at QB. I want someone who, at the latest, is a #10 or none at all.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
by stetzwebs on Feb 12, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
actually, i think it could
http://www.docsportsblog.com/?p=1800
as the article mob posts just below, and is re listed here above… it kinda is 50/50. as in, he could work out, or he couldn’t. that is the most basic fundamental probability for any football players’ success. It removes all variables, and is clearly a yes/no potential. when you start to consider round, team, coaching, pressure, incentives, expectations, opportunities, schemes, line play, targets on the team… etc.. etc.. etc… then all you do is create more opinion based notions. Can patterns be found? Sure, probably. Are they subject to bias? Most definitely, no question about it. When it comes down to it, this points out, about half fail, about half succeed, and each to varying degrees, based on bias.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 12, 2012 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
Try reading this
http://www.docsportsblog.com/?p=1800
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
yeah
i already said that the selection itself remains about 50/50. on that, i totally agree. But that doesn’t mean that the inflated group, of POST 1st round selections (what, like 6x the size, right? ) doesn’t yeild that same ONLY 50/50 chance per individual, and then their number of opportunities are limited by number of teams, number of competitors at the position, whether they have a franchise QB, or whether they have a 1st round selection/expensive investment… I mean, that makes the odds of success much much smaller. So while it is a larger group, there are less opportunities, and first rounders are stealing some of those spots automatically, thus making it even LESS likely for them to get a real shot. That is my overall assessment.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 11, 2012 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
I have read DJ’s research and agree with it for the most part. I don’t think they’re generous enough with some QBs. That being said, it doesn’t speak to the difference between the probability of selecting a QB in the first vs. later rounds, so it’s, once again, irrelevant.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
you do realize i am not arguing with you right?
i am agreeing. later rounds aren’t “irrelevant” they are just statistically less likely.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 12, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
I do, which is why I was replying to mob16151…
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
oh. werd.
it is too thin, and looked like it was under mine. my bad.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 12, 2012 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
What your not getting
IS EVERY DRAFT PICK IS A FREAKING DICE ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!
this argument is so bizarre to me. If they’re all dice rolls, then why are you arguing to take the dice roll with longer odds – vs the one with better odds?
i just don’t get it :|
Whats not to get
every player at heart has a 50/50 chance in the NFL. It’s not complicated.
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
True
However half of your list are decent QBs and not Franchise guys. Dalton is too early to tell, Garcia, Bulger, Garrard, Grbac and Delhomme dont qualify as franchise QBs in my eyes – yeah they had some nice seasonshere and there but those guys in reality were no better than what Fitz has been putting up for the last 2 seasons.
If you’re going back to the mid 80’s then your list is not long (Moon, Cunningham and Grbac are all that vintage).
Of course there are always exceptions ashighlighted by Brady, Warner, Romo, Moon, Brees (even though he was a top 32 pick) and other 80s guys you leave off like Montana for example – just the odds are longer on getting one in the later rounds (I’d have noproblem with us hitting on a Gem for a change though) :)
The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.
All those guys played as recently as
2000
flayed ones stealth mode
"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."
hahaha
So they played as recently as 12 years ago and were drafted as recently as 27 years ago !
Hardly worth mentioning considering the draft science has evolved so much in the last 20 years +
The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.
I like the idea of a 2nd round QB. It relieves the immediate pressure of rushing the new guy in, but assures that you get a quality player. Kaepernick was my guy last year.
Also, a trade down scenario sounds great (as always): move from #10 to #15-20, and pick up an extra 2nd rounder.
As for Osweiler…is a 6’8" QB going to be able to absorb hits to his oversized rib cage for a 10 year career?
THANK YOU!!!!
Dude you hit it on the dot. This guy has a arm, he can run, plus he can stretch his body out for that extra yard. Then on top of that we can have three doubles of picks;
Scenerio 1
1st-rd
2nd-rd
2nd-rd
3rd-rd
4th-rd
4th-rd
5th-rd
5th-rd
Scenerio 2
1st-rd
2nd-rd
3rd-rd
3rd-rd
4th-rd
4th-rd
5th-rd
5th-rd
I personally would love for us to drop down a few pick which means less money to pay a player but we also get the chance to grab a few mystery grabs in the later rounds.
I understand about odds and probabilities
That’s why I said I know this would be a gamble. But it’s a gamble I’d like to see OBD take because I believe the potential reward would be worth it. I want to BILLieve again and I know the Bills aren’t going to have a shot at either Luck or RG3, but they would have a shot at taking Osweiler at #42. In my personal opinion, he’d be worth taking that shot. Just my opinion.
I'm gonna respectfully pass.
There are 2 franchise QBs in this draft Luck and RG 3
I would rather have spent the #3 pick on Locker last year than a 2nd rd or later on a QB this year.
"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight
by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 12, 2012 5:09 AM EST reply actions
But Locker is gone and we still don't have our QB of the future
Our defense will be better this year and Fitz will be his usual 8-8 self, so there is no way we are picking in the top 10 again during the CHIX tenure unless Fitz gets injured. I would rather not have to wait for another horrific season followed by a coaching change before we take another shot at a QB.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
by Joe P. on Feb 12, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I just don't have a good feeling on this guy.
Who was the last 6’8" QB to win a superbowl?
That’s awful long, open to knee injuries, and not even really developed that much.
I just don’t like the developmental QBs in this draft.
"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight
by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 14, 2012 6:08 AM EST up reply actions
Our defense will be better this year
I’ll believe it when I see it.
"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight
by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 12, 2012 10:30 AM EST reply actions
How could it not......
Kyle Williams will be back, Dareus, Williams (CB), and Sheppard with a year of starting experience, tenth pick in the draft which will most likely be a DE to help the pass rush. I’m not saying we will be the Giants on D, but better than last year.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
I just don't think the coaching is in place.
To coach up the players to get better.
Sure we will have some players back, but we will lose more to injury also. Like the saying goes “Injuries are a part of the game”
Like I said……I’ll believe it when I see it.
"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight
by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 12, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
The Stache!
He’s got a pretty impressive resume as a DC. Our coaching is already better than last year. I’m of the wait and see mind as well but I’m far less worried about coaching than say…actual overall talent.
by buffaloparks on Feb 12, 2012 2:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He's also been out of the NFL for awhile.
He’s got a pretty impressive resume as a DC. Our coaching is already better than last year. I’m of the wait and see mind as well but I’m far less worried about coaching than say…actual overall talent.
I’m of the wait and see type of mind which = I’ll believe it when I see it.
I’m not gonna think our D is just gonna be better because the stache is DC.
Like I said…..I’ll believe it when I see it.
Not saying it can’t happen.
"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight
by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 14, 2012 6:05 AM EST up reply actions
watched a bunch of video on him and was very impressed. Runs very well for a man his size, with a great arm. Not sure how well he reads defenses and other traits but wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on him. Would prefer to take that pick in the third or fourth, as I don’t know if we can afford to not take defense and more defense through the draft. Thanks for pointing me to some great films.
Why I'm a optimistic Bills fan:
The road that is built in hope is more pleasant to the traveler than the road built in despair, even though they both lead to the same destination.
- Marion Zimmer Bradley
The reason I want Brock Osweiler
His Name! (Only Brian could understand this)
"This is what happens Larry!, This is what happens! "-Walter Sobchak" "Did we give up when the germans bombed pearl harbor!!??"-John Belushi
by BigEasyBillsKrewe on Feb 12, 2012 8:28 PM EST reply actions
How about Brock Landers?
"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.
by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 12, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
better than Ann Landers :-)
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
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