The 2011 Buffalo Bills' Statistical Failures

by tarvismonroe on Feb 13, 2012 4:45 AM EST

The MOTHER of all Stats (Part 4)

Previously, we have examined which statistics were most related to points and wins.

Now, I want use those statistical categories to take a look at how Buffalo did this season. Following that, I want to discuss how the Bills can improve going forward.

Here, first is the chart with the Bills’ stats. You’ll see the top 6 teams for each statistical category on top, and the Bills rank on the bottom…

	Offense Points	Passing YPA	Passing Yards	1st Downs	Defense Points	Defense Passing YPA	Defense Passing Yards	Defense 1st Downs	Rushing YPA
1	GB - 15	GB - 15	NO - 13	NO- 13	Pitt - 12	Pitt - 12	PITT - 12	PITT - 12	SF – 13
2	NO - 13	NE - 13	NE - 13	NE– 13	SF - 13	Hous- 10	Clev - 4	SF - 13	Balt– 12
3	NE - 13	NYG - 9	GB - 15	SD – 8	Balt - 12	Balt - 12	Hous-10	Jack - 5	Miami-6
4	DET- 10	NO - 13	DET- 10	Phil - 8	Hous-10	Tenn -9	Balt-12	Balt-12	Seat-7
5	SD - 8	Pitt- 12	NYG - 9	GB– 15	Clev-4	Clev-4	NYJ-8	Hous-10	Jack-5
6	CAR - 6	SD - 8	SD - 8	Atl/Det – 10	Miami-6	NYJ-8	KC-7	NYJ-8	Minn-3


Buffalo’s Rank	14th	21st	15th	14th	30th	25th	19th	27th	27th

Ouch! The Buffalo Bills were no higher than 14th in any of the 9 most important statistical categories in football this year. We were remarkably awful in every single category on defense. On offense, we were no better than a middle-of-the-pack team. Based on this, our 6-10 record should have come as no surprise.

What can we build on?

Our rushing offense was excellent. However, as we mentioned in part 1, rushing offense does not correlate with points/wins. We need to use our success on the ground to provide opportunities for success in the air. Freddy and Spiller should cause opposing defenses some worry – and as a result, we may see a good amount of 1-on-1 coverage on the outside. If we can improve our WR corps, especially at the top of the depth chart, we ought to see improvement in our passing game. Resigning Stevie, while adding a receiver like Vincent Jackson or Dwayne Bowe, could turn us into a top-10 offense. Additionally, we could target one of the top WRs in the draft (Floyd, Wright, Jeffery) – although the learning curve for rookie WRs is said to be pretty steep.

Our Oline is passable. We have a solid interior, with some depth. We could use an upgrade at LT, but could survive another season with Bell/Hairston.

Our defense is pathetic. We cannot stop passing yards, rushing yards, or first downs. As a result, we gave up a ridiculous 27.1 points per game. Even with a dominant passing game, we will struggle to win games giving up that many points. The other teams giving up more than 26 pts per game: Carolina, Indy, Oakland, Minnesota, Tampa. Notice a trend here?? We are smack in the middle of some of the worst teams in the NFL.

We do have a few pieces. We should have some improvement with Wanny taking over the defensive play-calling. But we badly need to improve in a few specific areas. Our front 7 really only has 3 legitimate starters: Dareus, Williams, and Barnett. The rest of our players would not start on 90% of the teams in the league. We need to add talent bigtime, starting with an improved pass rush. Mario Williams is the dream pick-up here, but we should seriously look at Avril, Mathis, and Anthony Spencer, as well. In the draft, Coples and Upshaw are possibilities. Also, if we could land another starting caliber LB in the draft (Hightower, Burfict, etc.), it wouldn’t hurt.

Our defensive backfield is not bad. When healthy, our DBs should be able to hang with most NFL offenses. It would be great to add an elite shut-down cornerback, but our situation here is not dire.

I personally don’t us making it to the playoffs unless we do just about everything I mentioned here in this post:

-Re-Sign Stevie;

-Add in free Agency: new starting DE and WR;

-Add in draft Another DE and LB

What do you think Bills Fans…. Can we get into the top 6 in any of these categories by next year and make a push for the playoffs?

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

First: excellent analysis and article.

Second, I agree generally with your recommendations re: FA and the draft; if the Bills can find a way to sign and afford Mario Williams, that would be sensational. If not, they could still sign a more feasible DE (such as Anthony Spencer) and use the #10 draft pick to add a top rookie pass rushing DE. Then use subsequent picks to add a good rookie pass rushing OLB prospect as well. And sign a better CB (like Stanford Routt) and draft a decent rookie there, too. And sign a good WR to pair with a re-signed Stevie Johnson (i.e., if not Dwayne Bowe or Vince Jackson, at least a Robert Meachem) and also draft a quick slot WR, too (like Ryan Broyles – there are other candidates as well). In other words, between FA and the 2012 draft and with Wannstedt promoted to DC and the shift back to a 4-3 base defense, there is potential to build on the offensive success of 2011 and to at least get the defense improved to middle-of-the-road status. Which might equal a wildcard playoff spot. Which would definitely mean that OBD is moving in the right direction. FINALLY.

by wpod on Feb 13, 2012 6:12 AM EST reply actions

yes!

I think our schedule should be a little lighter next year (AFC South and NFC West), so we should have a good chance at fighting for a playoff spot if we make these changes.

I think the likelihood of us actually having an elite offense is pretty minimal as long as we have Fitz as our QB. We might crack the top 10, but never the top 5. So, we’re gonna have to be a team that succeeds either through balance, or by building a ridiculously good defense. I hope with a little more talent, and Wannstedt’s promotion, we get there sooner than later.

by tarvismonroe on Feb 13, 2012 7:12 AM EST up reply actions