My Updated 2012 Bills Mock Draft - with Trade Down

by wpod on Feb 14, 2012 12:49 AM EST

Round 1 - trade down, pick up extra Round 2 pick
Round 1: RDE Whitney Mercilus
Round 2: QB Brock Osweiler
Round 2: OLB Shea McClellin
Round 3: OT Mitchell Schwartz
Round 4: CB Coryell Judie
Round 4: WR Ryan Broyles
Round 5: C Quentin Saulsbury
Round 5: TE Michael Egnew
Round 6: LDE Julian Miller
Round 7: WLB Sammy Brown

This draft follows a productive FA signing period wherein OBD signs all the Bills' key internal UFAs (i.e., Stevie Johnson; Demetrius Bell; Scott Chandler; etc.) and also signs 3 external UFAs:

RDE Anthony Spencer

CB Stanford Routt

WR (i.e., Dwayne Bowe; Vincent Jackson; Pierre Garcon; Robert Meachem)

So while these draft picks would be expected to play and contribute, none (with the possible exception of McClellin at SLB) would be expected to take a full-time starter role as a rookie, which is a good thing. For instance, Mercilus would be a pass rush specialist who would rotate in mostly on passing downs and only on some of those (with Spencer and possibly even Merriman sharing the RDE position). Of course the more they produce, the more time they're going to see on the field.

The trade down would happen if Quinton Coples is gone before the #10 pick and would occur because the next several alternative RDE candidates (i.e., Mercilus; Perry; Ingram) are all pretty equivalent in value and the extra Round 2 pick they'd get would offset the gamble taken on QB Osweiler using the #41 pick.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Oops - got TE Michael Egnew and C Quentin Saulsbury reversed

They’re both Round 5 picks so it’s hardly crucial but…

by wpod on Feb 14, 2012 12:51 AM EST reply actions

Curious

to know who you think we might trade down with and perhaps you could add some more details to your picks.

I’m not a huge fan of Os in the 2nd however if it’s essentially a “free 2nd” by trade down then why not take a stab on him. Mercilus is a player of much intrigue who could well fit in and be successful here. A lot of your other picks are solid – geez I’m not sure I’ve seen any mock not having us take Broyles in the 4th :-) He’d be a steal there.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 14, 2012 1:13 AM EST reply actions

Thanks, Will.

Osweiler would be a gamble; he’s very raw and would need plenty of time and coaching to develop, but he holds the potential to maybe turn into something special in the right situation. I would use the #41 pick to gamble on him anyway but considering the likelihood of Coples being gone before #10 combined with the reluctance a lot of people (including professional scouts) have about him regarding his lack of production as a Senior and his level of effort, I think a trade down especially if he’s gone would be worth it and doable (i.e., there will be other teams hot for that draft spot).

I think if you eliminate Coples there are a number of roughly equivalent alternative RDE prospects (i.e., Mercilus; Perry; Ingram) which is why a trade down makes sense for the Bills. I’m not saying these players are identical but they’re all projected primarily as pass rushing RDEs and I’m saying their trade value/likelihood of success is roughly equivalent. I don’t really care between the three of them as long as the Bills take the one that seems best to them in the first round. And I would also have signed a UFA RDE (Anthony Spencer), plus there is the possibility of Merriman hanging around, too.

So I’m speculating about a trade down, which would also help offset the gamble I propose by using the #41 pick on Osweiler. I believe in his potential to be developed into possibly a special starting NFL QB given the enough time and the right coaching. No guarantees but I believe he’s worth taking that gamble and without that kind of QB prospect in the system, the Bills can continue to forget about even thinking of competing to get back to the Super Bowl.

And I believe I was the first one touting Broyles in Round 4 for the Bills (or at least my mock was the first I saw with him). I think the Bills will re-sign Stevie and will also sign a legit #2 WR in FA; therefore I’m looking for a quick slot WR to be taken in the draft (with David Nelson still being used as the big slot WR). Then I look at Broyles’ production in college, the fact that he’s recovering from the ACL injury (of course, he’ll need to check out OK medically) and I just believe he’ll be the best slot WR prospect available with a Round 4 pick. He wouldn’t still be there if not for that injury; I just believe he represents the right opportunity to fill the right need for the Bills at the right point in the 2012 draft.

by wpod on Feb 14, 2012 1:35 AM EST reply actions

Trust me, a lot of Bills fans are on the Broyles Bandwagon

Here’s a mock draft I made a few weeks ago that had him in the fourth: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2012/1/25/2735040/bills-mock-draft
I love the speed, production, and catching that Broyles was able to offer, and I think whoever gets him will be very fortunate if he heals properly.

I really like this mock draft, as it addresses the offseason very similarly to how I would approach it (right down to us picking three of the same players). The only thing I believe is unrealistic here is the free agent signing list.
Even with the cap room carried over, I still find it hard to believe that Buffalo will resign all three of the main free agents they have, plus bring in Anthony Spencer, Stanford Routt, and a #2 WR. I think that first of all, it will be tough to budget for all those players. And second of all, it would be pretty difficult to convince three relatively high-profile free agents to come to Buffalo right now (though signing Stevie to a nice contract would help things).

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Feb 14, 2012 2:22 AM EST up reply actions

Nice mock draft ideas, DanRoc!

We’re thinking along very similar lines. I have my own ideas but I like your mock draft, too. Nice work.

by wpod on Feb 14, 2012 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

i second that

i somehow missed that post Dan, but I like the approach, the results, and if not for feeling that our overall underspending on offense, and need for a WR might trump Mercilus (for Floyd) I would have NO issue with most of those selections.

"mmmm... Glen honey, I have a question for you... What do you do for a living?"

"I have a question for you, too. Why are you still here?" ~ Glen Quagmire (Giggity Giggity Giggity Goo!)

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 14, 2012 3:51 AM EST up reply actions

Hopefully

there is a player or 2 worthy of someone trading up for. A 1st and 2nd is a large investment and not too many teams give that up any given year unless they need just that one piece (AKA Falcons last year). There needs to be a top prospect at a position of non need for Buffalo for a trade down to occur to net that sort of bounty.

Maybe we’ll get the perfect storm this year.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 14, 2012 3:28 AM EST up reply actions

don't need another slot receiver

why not add Green TE 3rd, Egnew TE 4th, could u imagine if the Bills could go from having Stevie, Nelson, Easley, Aiken, Spiller, and Jackson, to Green, Egnew, Stevie, Easley and Jackson to the WildCat, can anyone say miss match

by forlife on Feb 14, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks, DanRoc

I know my FA plans are somewhat ambitious but not compared to the many Bills fans who think they’re going to sign Mario Williams. Ralph and CHIX are pretty much on record as saying they are very interested in signing another starter WR (to ADD to Stevie, not replace him) so I think mostly focusing on either Pierre Garcon or, if they fail to get him, Robert Meachem is not an unreasonable expectation. Also, I think expecting the Bills to sign someone like Stanford Routt is not unreasonable, either (else why did they have him in today?) That just leaves the idea of signing Anthony Spencer, which, given the rampant speculation about Mario Williams doesn’t seem to outlandish. I know taken all together it’s a fair chunk of change but I also believe it’s about time for Ralph and CHIX to demonstrate a commitment to trying to win to the fans. I know…been a Bills fan since the late 70s, have pretty much seen it all. But unless and until I get shut down (again) I’m holding out hope. For now.

by wpod on Feb 14, 2012 3:04 AM EST reply actions

we don't think

that the Bills are going to sign Mario Williams, we know :)

With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.

by tomcs on Feb 14, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

@DanRoc re: Ryan Broyles

BTW I am updating my mock draft to actually go after Broyles in Round 3 and postpone drafting another OT (Nate Potter) until Round 4. I just think interest in Broyles will heat up to require them to take him that early if they really want him. I really, really, really want to see him playing the slot for the Bills in 2012. I know recovering from an ACL injury is severely non-trivial but as long as his medical progress checks out OK…

by wpod on Feb 14, 2012 3:09 AM EST reply actions

have to agree

It’s likely if he checks out o.k. that he goes before round 4 – assuming the professional evaluators are as big on him as many of us are. 3rd seems a more realistic spot to land him – assuming again that his rehab checks out.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 14, 2012 3:26 AM EST up reply actions

there is many slot receivers on the roster, only 2 deep threats, Easley and Clowney

I would let chandler go and add Ladarius Green in 3rd, Michael Egnew in the 4th, resign Johnson, add Pierre Garcon and TJ Graham as a future deep threat in the 6th or 7th, and use 3rd rounder on Foles or Osweiler franchise QB,

by forlife on Feb 14, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

many problems with this

if Coples isn’t there at 10 then OBD should be taking Kirkpatrick to team up with Williams, Rogers, Florence and McKelvin,
Bobbie Massie should be drafted by OBD with the 35th,
don’t resign Chandler take Green TE in the 3rd, trade Fred for another 3rd rd pick and take Foles or Osweiler,
Bruce Irvin DE and Engnew in the 4th
Jacquies Smith DE and Davin Meggit
Donte Moss DE
TJ Graham WR

by forlife on Feb 14, 2012 11:08 AM EST reply actions