On The Buffalo Bills' Potential Interest In Mario Williams
by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 10:31 AM EST
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I have been blogging here about the Buffalo Bills for five years. That's a long time to do anything. In my time doing this, I have never been questioned about a non-Bills player more often in a short period of time than I have about Houston Texans free agent defensive end Mario Williams in the past week.
The questions on everyone's minds: is Williams really going to leave Houston? And would the Bills actually have a shot at signing him if he did?
My opinion, stated as plainly as possible: yes, there is a good chance Williams hits the open market, but it's not the slam dunk everyone seems to think it is. Houston wants Williams back - why wouldn't they? - and Williams by all accounts would like to continue playing for Wade Phillips. The problem, of course, is that the $21.99 million franchise tag requirement precludes the Texans from tagging Williams; they'll either re-sign him prior to March 13 (a Herculean feat to accomplish without considerable help from Williams), or watch him become the most heavily-recruited free agent on the year, and perhaps even in the history of the NFL.
Let's assume that Williams does, in fact, hit the open market. If that happens, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle is expecting Williams to receive contract offers that contain at least $50 million in guarantees, thanks to an abundance of teams with ridiculous amounts of cap room such as the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (Both teams have more than $60 million in space to use however they wish.)
In the 2011 calendar year, the Bills handed out two of the richest contracts they'd ever given to players. In re-signing quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and defensive tackle Kyle Williams, the Bills guaranteed the two players a combined $41 million. Marcell Dareus' rookie contract guaranteed his $20.4 million contract in full; combined with Fitzpatrick's $24 million guaranteed, not even Fitzpatrick and Dareus - a Top 3 pick - can equal the guarantees Williams is expected to receive.
Bills fans, do you really believe that the Bills would be willing to put forth a competitive offer for Williams on the open market? I ask that question without a hint of condescension; I'm just looking for any hint of what Bills fans are seeing that I'm not. Fitzpatrick's franchise-record contract was a $59 million deal - and there's a very real chance he won't earn a great deal of that if he doesn't last the full length of the agreement. Fitzpatrick is a quarterback, folks. Do people really believe that the Bills would offer a quarterback-level contract, fully guaranteed, to any player that didn't play that position?
In fairness, much of the conversation surrounding Williams and the Bills - which was mostly non-existent for quite a while - has been fueled by SI's Don Banks, who wrote a week ago today that the Bills might be a team "that could come after Williams and make it very difficult" for them to retain Williams. That piqued the interest of several fans, but it's virtually certain that Banks was merely pointing out the obvious - that the Bills need a pass-rusher - and was not reporting that they'd pursue him.
Sure, the Bills have said that they'll be aggressive in trying to address the team's decade-plus-long pass-rushing issue. First: talk is cheap. Second: they've also said that they plan on taking a fiscal approach to free agency, re-signing their own players, and finding their true building blocks in the draft. We've covered point No. 3 above - the contract Super Mario would require would be an astonishingly unprecedented move for this organization.
Every time I make this point off-blog, I'm offered the "but if ever they were going to break the bank, this is the guy to do it for!" rebuttal. And I don't necessarily disagree; I just think it's irrelevant. Williams is poised to make crazy money precisely because he's worth it on an NFL open market. Of course signing Williams would make sense for the Bills from an on-field perspective. (Through that lens, signing Williams makes sense for 100 percent of NFL teams.) It's just that, having watched the team for so long, it's almost laughable that some Bills fans are even entertaining the idea that this is in the realm of possibility. All the power to those of you who are choosing to get your hopes up, believing that this might be the year that the team gets aggressive and makes a big splash. History offers no indication that your wishes will become reality.
I've also done this long enough, and been a fan long enough, to know that nothing is impossible. But I'll believe that the Bills will seriously compete for an available Williams' services when I see it. I'm not even remotely expecting to be writing about it come mid-March.
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Not that I believe they will pursue him but...
You have to think that Nix knows the impact a pass rusher would do for this team and be willing to overpay to obtain him. The quote below seems irrelevant, just b/c Fitz is a QB doesn’t mean he should/will make the most of anyone on the team. Yes, that’s the norm, but would Schaub make more than Williams if Houston could afford to re-sign him??? The Bills have money to spend, SPEND IT!!!
Bills fans, do you really believe that the Bills would be willing to put forth a competitive offer for Williams on the open market? Seriously? Fitzpatrick’s franchise-record contract was a $59 million deal – and there’s a very real chance he won’t earn a great deal of that if he doesn’t last the full length of the agreement. Fitzpatrick is a quarterback, folks.
Ya I don't understand the QB argument either
If Fitz was worth 50 mil guaranteed with 50 mil more spread out over the course of the contract, the Bills would have given it to him.
If the Bills had someone worth a whole chunk of change, then they would have re-signed that player to a rich contract. We just didn’t have someone like that in the last few years.
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by NordicBillsfan on Feb 16, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t even remotely expect you to be writing about the Bills’ seriously competing for Williams in March either, but at the same time, I do fully expect the team to have constructed a totally underwhelming and ineffective roster by September. Thus, while I totally agree with you that it is “laughable” (and I can’t stress how much I agree with you here) that Bills fans are entertaining this as a realistic possibility, I do think it’s relevant. It’s relevant in the sense that it highlights how OBD is unwilling to seriously compete. They cut corners and it shows on the field year-after-year. No team in this cash-cow league is totally cheap. But does Buffalo exert all that they could financially to field a winner? I don’t think anyone could seriously argue yes.
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by Port Royal on Feb 16, 2012 10:49 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
it highlights how OBD is unwilling to seriously compete
haha, I wrote my comment below about how if the Bills don’t try it will validate your point about the Bills not being willing to compete before I read this comment. I am being serious, if the Bills aren’t major players in a bidding war – they dont have to win – I’ll give full credence to your theory that they are unwilling to be serious competitors.
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+1
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by ThaRealTruth on Feb 16, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
+1
There’s zero reason to think the Bills would shell out and zero reason to think Mario would head to Buffalo even if they shelled out. The odds of us winning the SB next year without him are better than the odds we sign him; therefore, I choose to daydream about the former instead.
I do not expect buffalo to land him. I do expect them to at least seriously try to land him. I expect.a team like tampa to give him a contract other teams do not have the cap space for.
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by matthew62 on Feb 16, 2012 10:52 AM EST via Android app reply actions
If they were to “seriously try to land him,” they’d offer him a deal that could compete with the $50 million guaranteed he’s expected to receive on the open market. And that’s my point: to even compete with that figure would be an astonishingly unprecedented move for the organization.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
It would. Do you feel that “if” they didn’t give that contract to Fitz that they would have tried harder hypothetically? I’d much rather have Williams then Fitz. And from what I read, cutting him would save us 54 million out of the 60 million we gave him. I know that this wouldn’t happen, but it is an interesting thought to ponder. We have enough ammo in draft picks to go up and get RG3, and will therefore have enough money to try to land williams with the money saved from cutting Fitz. Again, never would happen, but thought it was an interesting thought to throw out there
by csc06258 on Feb 16, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Do you feel that "if" they didn’t give that contract to Fitz that they would have tried harder hypothetically?
No, I do not. On the contrary, I believe that the Fitzpatrick contract makes them infinitesimally more likely to compete for Williams. And you’re right, they’re not going to release Fitzpatrick.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
Because it indicates a willingness to spend money. I mean, Williams’ guarantees would literally double Fitzpatrick’s, so there’s that little hurdle to clear, but they did spend.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Because it shows obd will spend money. What brian has said is not buffalo can not compete and sign.him. Its that it would be so out of character youbwould think someone has obd ay gun point
"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus
by matthew62 on Feb 16, 2012 11:19 AM EST via Android app up reply actions
Thank You
…I was dreading having to call my 3 yo granddaughter for the answer…
by Terroplane on Feb 16, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Ralph is in his mid 90’s. I have a feeling he’d like to try as hard as he can to buy his team a ticket to the playoffs.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
I have no idea why being 93 would make him more likely to sign off on doubling Ryan Fitzpatrick’s contract guarantees for one guy than being 92 would have been.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Not to nitpick, but hasn’t he been 93 for 3 years now? And I feel that he may be just a bit more out of touch with his reservations on spending to the hilt on one player so that he can experience relevancy once again.
It’s the mentality that he’s going to need to go big or go home now.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
I believe his mentality is, as it’s always been, much more oriented to his being a small-market pioneer.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
That’s fair and well-stated.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I have a feeling at his age
he’s more likely to try and buy a bus ticket for a nickel then worry about getting to the playoffs. If he hasn’t gone BIG in the last decade of failure when he was of better health and mind I don’t know he’d start now. It’s not like he was 85 and thinking “I can wait this out for another 25-30 years.”
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by twoeightnine on Feb 16, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Brian, your link does say he’s expected to receive $50 million guaranteed. It just doesn’t.
by usuo mojinga on Feb 16, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Everyone forgets 2 points:
1. We could offer him the world AND HE STILL MIGHT SIGN WITH A BETER TEAM. He might only want to play for a good team, or a warm weather team. We have no clue what his wishes are. I find it annoying that we are bashing the Bills when nothing has happened yet. What about him? What is he motived for? He could actually take a lesser deal with a better team and spurn us. What would all of you say then?
2. Is he injury prone? Didn’t he miss time 2 seasons ago? And he missed a lot of the year this year. I have read that he is always nicked up in some way or form from the Texans fan site. Can you throw around 100 M contract on a guy who might get hurt? Not sure I want that.
This is not a high concern, but, after the “fat Albert” fiasco, giving out big cash to anyone should scare anyone. If we sign him and he gets fat and lazy, he kills our team.
I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.
by suteck on Feb 16, 2012 11:05 AM EST reply actions 3 recs
Point #2 Rec'd ^^
I have no problem if the Bills make a reasonable offer, but you don’t win championships by overpaying for talent that is injury prone.
Of course, The Bills have proven that you also don’t win championships (Or have a winning record) by fielding a team with poor draft picks and marginal talent.
by wallyvoodoo on Feb 16, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
To your last point, he made a ton of money being the #1 overall pick and that didn’t really affect his work ethic in any noticeable way. I doubt another payday would change that.
by Dr. Brackish Okun on Feb 16, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
If anything all his "haterz" made him work harder to prove that he was better than Reggie Bush.
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by twoeightnine on Feb 16, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Is he injury prone? Didn’t he miss time 2 seasons ago? And he missed a lot of the year this year.
Sounds like a perfect fit for the Buffalo Bills.
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by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 16, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Haaaaaaaaaaaa
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Vince Lombardi
I don't know if the Bills will sign Williams or not
But they can.
Assume an 8 years, $100 M contract, based on Jared Allen’s deal, which averages around $12 million per six years. The 8 years, $100M contract averages ~$13 M, though it would start lower and escalate, potentially.
Buffalo’s 2012 cap commitments is currently $115M ($95 M in contracts, $8M in dead cap, and $11M committed toward cap. Assuming that the cap moves from $121M to around $130M, Buffalo will have about $15M in cap space, before cutting anyone. If you take out the players that aren’t likely to make the team (Onobun, etc) Buffalo saves around $8M, negating the dead cap space, and leaving Buffalo with ~$107M.
So Buffalo has the capacity to sign him, but it would leave about $10M in cap space left. The cost of signing Williams is making a choice between Stevie Johnson, and the rest of the UFA’s (Bell, Urbik, Rinehart, Chandler, etc.).
There are two ways out, to still sign everyone:
- Cut/restructure players like McGee, Florence, Edwards, Merriman
- Use the ~$20M from 2011 as rollover into 2012, and front load contracts.
So, it can be done. The question is will it be done. I’m hopeful.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Feb 16, 2012 11:08 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
It could be done, but looking at the way the Bills FO has operated in recent years and extrapolating that into the future I would agree with Brian that it would be very uncharacteristic of them to put so many eggs in one basket. They would also like to sign a deep-threat WR and an experienced CB in FA this year, and going after Williams would make that impossible. My guess is that they are going to spend more in FA in 2012 than they normally do, but they strike me as pretty conservative when it comes to doling out Ralph Wilson’s money and so I am not expecting to see Mario in a Bills’ uniform anytime soon.
I think it's an either/or choice for Nix
With qualifiers.
If he rolls over the 2011 cap money, Williams is a possibility. If he signs Williams, unless he cuts players like Florence, other free agents (CB, WR, TE) are not options.
I guess to boils down to how much Nix thinks Williams can change the defense. He did say that he himself, not Wilson, was the reason Buffalo didn’t pursue high-dollar free agents.
Another point is that Wannstedt’s defense didn’t take off until they got Charles Haley. That may playing into the situation.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
by Der Jaeger on Feb 16, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly, and when faced with such either/or choices the Bills in the past (both before and during Nix) have opted for value over one or two extravagant purchases (even though a big purchase might be the ticket to success). I’m not saying what they should do, but observing that their past behavior is a likely clue to their future behavior.
That is true
But at least we’ll know why they don’t sign Williams. It’s the opportunity cost of not signing others. Though I don’t agree with it.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
What you have not accounted for in your calculation is the fact that the team doesn’t amortize bonuses. A $50 million guaranteed deal would, let’s say, have a $20 million signing bonus. That money would count toward the 2012 cap, because that’s how the Bills run their books.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
For example: Fitzpatrick’s $24 million in guarantees included a $10 million signing bonus, which the team paid him in full when he signed the deal in October. That $10 million counted against the 2011 cap.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
In that case
Assuming that Williams signed a 8 years, $100M contract with $20M in a signing bonus. Nix could account for that in the 2011 rollover money.
That would reduce Williams’ contract to 8 years, $80M, about $10M per year, starting low and escalating.
Starting with ~$107M, signing Williams in this manner would bring Buffalo’s 2012 cap number to $117M, giving them ~$13M in cap space. Unless Nix cut or restructured players, he’d be hard pressed to resign all the important UFA’s. And preclude signing other free agents.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
DJ that brings up a question in my mind
If every team can compute there cap in several different ways, and the Bills do a cash to cap. Are we sure that the 20.9M (2011) cap rollover even exists? Was that number derived from a pro-rated bonus method, and therfore did not account for the Fitz, and Williams SB’s? I am just curious bc I know the Jets page that shows the Bills cap break down that has been referenced around this blog in the last month has a prorated bonus collum. It makes sense to that the Jets are probably one of the teams that figures its cap prorated so it can bring in the big names. It also makes sense that as helpful as that page seems to be if it is not calculated the same as how OBD does then it is irrelevent. What other sites have you been getting your numbers from and do we know wether they are figuring the numbers with a cash to cap aspect?
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
by jbbillfan on Feb 17, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, you're correct
And we won’t know completely until the NFL releases their numbers (per John Clayton report).
I read the exact paragraph last night, and the last sentence describes what you are saying. That $20M might really be $20M, and it might be much lower. We won’t know for sure until the league releases its numbers.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
This is a pure guess
but I bet that number ends up being closer to 10 Million.
Do you know when that report comes out?
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
Clayton said a week or two from now
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
Thanks, BTW
I didn’t realize they did that.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
That’s so much money. I can’t imagine being responsible for that type of bank.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Drop the last three zero's and it becomes much easier.
There’s a reason companies report financials in millions. ;)
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Cash to Cap
I heard (I think on NFL Network) that something like 80% or more of teams do it this way and its not just the Bills.
Apparently you can choose to run your books amortizing the bonus moey which spreads it out or you can account for it all in the year you pay it.
The majority of NFL teams now account for it in the year they pay it.
Yes….and people like me (and here Brian) who keep pointing that out as a reason they likely can’t compete for Williams aren’t necessarily criticizing them for it. It is just why that other 20% are the types of teams that end up w/ the Mario Williams of the world.
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by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 16, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
If they do nothing else this offseason, they should part ways with Shawne Merriman.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
chances are better
That Jim Kelly comes out of retirement and leads us to the Super Bowl.
Some of the names people come up with for their kids start the kids out neck deep in social hell.
I'd Support That...
Let’s resign Jim Kelly!
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by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 16, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
$40 Million, one year. With the cap rollover, we can afford it.
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by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 16, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
The Bills aren't Madden
Bargaining contracts can many times be about Feasibility vs Willingness. If you play the game and you got the money, you go for it. For the Bills it’s not about feasibliity, it’s about the will to pay someone that amount of money. Unlike the Redskins and Cowboys to an extent, they have no history of throwing great sums of money at a player, even during the days of Kelly. So how can someone expect the culture to change when the owner hasn’t? Williams sounds great but don’t bet on them even trying.
You do what?
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
See post fail below. —V
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Cap Rollover
Can you please explain the cap rollover. Where it comes from and how it works and their options with it.
I cannot, not only just because I know nothing about it, but because I read Matt’s article and the PFT stuff and came up just as confused as the rest of you. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Let me take a stab at it
As I read PFT (they ran two articles on this topic), they seemed to be saying that the Bills, by sending a letter stating their intentions to league hdq, can roll over the $19.9 million in cap space they didn’t use in 2011 to 2012. That would allow them to spend $19.9 million more in 2012 against the cap than they could otherwise spend, IF they so desire. They don’t have to spend the money once they request it, but they have the option of doing so and still staying under the cap.
Is that right, or am I missing something?
What I’m not clear on is whether they could then roll over that $19.9 million (or the part of it they don’t use) once again in 2013, or whether the cap space can only be rolled over once.
I think this explanation is it
But doesn’t the team have to use the money if they request it?
I thought it was a use it all, or not at all, type of deal.
Not sure on it though.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
You could be right, but so far I haven’t seen anything that indicates that. It would also make no sense to require them to use it all, since this money is highly fungible (i.e., the Bills could use $20 million of cap space and say it was all 2011 rollover but not use any of their 2012 cap room, in which case we would be left to ask whether it was really 2011dollars or 2012 dollars).
Again, I’m not at all sure of this, but I believe that if they send the letter they are only obtaining the right to use the $19.9 million and not being saddled with any obligation to spend it. In which case, why not send that letter?
Yeah, exactly
They would be foolish not to send in the letter no matter what their intentions are, if all $19.9M isn’t required to be used. It would place a constraint on the team…. self-inflicted wound.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
If they didn’t use it, wouldn’t they essentially be leaving money on the table?
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
Bills fans, do you really believe that the Bills would be willing to put forth a competitive offer for Williams on the open market?
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 11:54 AM EST reply actions
Then my next question is simple: “Why?” Because as I said in the article, I’m still waiting to be presented with something tangible to go on. And if your “Wilson is getting older and more desperate” theory is your argument, then I apologize, for I do not buy it. :)
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Even more than the Ralph issue is the fact that this very well may be Buddy’s last stand and I can’t see why he’d be concerned with the cost of Williams beyond the current year. If he did fail, then the cap hell issue would be someone else’s. If he didn’t fail then it’d be lauded as a fantastic move. We’ve all seen what a dominant pass rusher can do for a team.
They have an opportunity to add a proven dominant player. The investment is sound as I see it. And yes, it’s nearly an unimaginable number.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Let’s imagine for a moment that Buddy willingly entered, as you put it, “cap hell,” and the plan worked. The Bills are, what, a wild card team at best? Cool! We’d love that. And then Buddy Nix, who has saved his job, would be in cap hell, and probably start worrying about his job again.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
We’re told winning changes everything. I guess i’m just asking you not to be so adamantly opposed to the thought of this happening.
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by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not that I’m opposed to it. In fact, I’m not; I’d be ecstatic if the Bills competitively pursued Mario Williams. My stance was and is very clear: it would be incredible if it did happen. I would literally be incredulous, because absolutely nothing points to them being willing to do so.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
And this is why the team I love continues to piss me off.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
It won’t piss me off when they don’t, though. I can’t make the “it’s not my money” argument in this case, because that is a LOT of money.
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by Brian Galliford on Feb 16, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
That much money would collectively make every single user on this blog rich beyond their imagination.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
At some point this exact scenario will happen
The Bills could & should continue to add good football players to their roster…and could & should make the playoffs in the next few years…and then, this moment you described will occur. They will look at their team, and suddenly realize that they aren’t going anywhere past the first round of the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their QB. And then, the search will be on for a legit franchise QB, and we will start the rebuilding clock again, suffering through 1-2 years of poor play as our new QB gains much needed NFL experience. But at least this time we will then be looking foward to a 8-10 year window of time where the Bills could be a legit Super Bowl contender, possibly winning it all if the non-QB pieces fall into place during that window of stability our new QB would provide.
I wish I could just fast-forward life until that point in time.
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by StroudFanClub on Feb 16, 2012 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not a big fan of Fitz...
But the guy I saw the first 6 weeks of the 2011 could take us to a Superbowl. (I’m not saying he’d win it.)
In addition we have 9 possibly 10 draft picks this year. Assuming Nix can land us another 3 starters and 6 roll players, that’s a lot of depth to a roster. We could be a playoff team this year. (Go ahead accuse me of drinking the Kool Aid, but a lot sports writers were saying we were a top 10 team at the beginning of the season.)
Aaron Rodgers couldn’t take his team to the Super Bowl this year because the Giants found a way to pressure him.
I fail to see how Fitzpatrick looked better than Aaron Rodgers did this past year. I see him much like Doug Flutie without the controversy of another QB breathing down on him. I loved Flutie, thought he played lights out, like Fitz. The difference was Flutie played on teams with great defenses.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
That’s just one comparison. You could easily make the statement that Aaron didn’t beat the Giants because of their defense (35points scored against at home?). Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and other great QBs have lost many, many games simply because it is truly a team sport. While I subscribe to the theory that a great QB can easily make you a contender. Having a great QB isn’t the ONLY way to be a great team.
A more reasonable comparison than looking at the leagues MVP is did Fitz look better than Alex Smith? I’d say yes, especially when you consider Alex had much less pressure on him to score with every possession due to having a fantastic defense.
Dream scenario for me is a Williams signing coupled w a trade down to land Tannehill. Allowing us the ability to strengthen our depth, groom a franchise QB AND compete for the playoffs, THIS year.
I don’t think it’s that out of the realm of a possibility. The Williams signing being the hardest to accomplish (and IMo, I also see no signs of doing more than the usual, bring him in just to talk and appease te fans, as the price tag is literally to much for one man that doesn’t bring ‘intangibles’. And by that I mean I do not believe he is the Ray Lewis, Reggie White type of locker room leader. If he were, I’d break the bank for him).
Why? Because you want to win. That should be the only reason.
What if in a couple of years Dareus keeps getting better and he becomes one of the premier DTs in the league? Will we make the effort to retain him? Or should we just wave the white flag and send him on his way to another theam?
Mario Williams would be one of those players high on Buddy’s list if he were about to enter the draft. If M.W. hits FA he would still be that rookie with the NFL production and that would be as a sure bet there is for any GM.
I believe Nix was never a big player in FA, not because they won’t let them (the powers that be) but because there hasn’t been a guy worth the money you tend to overpay for in FA. (Dockery)
Williams is a player worthy of overpaying.
What if in a couple of years Dareus keeps getting better and he becomes one of the premier DTs in the league? Will we make the effort to retain him?
Yes, and you know why? The league’s elite DTs don’t require $50 million in guarantees.
Editor-in-Chief, BUFFALO RUMBLINGS®
Follow @BrianGalliford
by Brian Galliford on Feb 17, 2012 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
They also don’t bring the same sort of impact that a $50 million dollar man does.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure I agree with that. I don’t think price necessarily has anything to do with impact.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
by WhyBillsWhy on Feb 17, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
I wasn’t implying that price dictated impact. I simply meant that an outside pass-rushing DE provides more on-field impact than a DT, and therefore commands more money.
DTs help out DEs in occupying blocks, but rarely do you see one so dominant that he’s the face of a team.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
but impact certainly as to do with price.
"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."
~Socrates
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
i obviously need to clean my keyboard
or proofread better.
as=HAS
"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."
~Socrates
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
My point is that we shouldn’t be afraid about the cost of a player if he becomes good. If Dareus becomes great at his position I would be more than happy to retain him for the long haul and pay him accordingly.
If Mario hits FA we can’t be afraid about cost because he’s the type of player that never hits FA and we should be players just like any team.
I understand the point you’re trying to make, about the high price range and current ownership. If I’m NIx I sell old Ralph that he’s like signing a young Bruce Smith in his prime.
Im not expecting it to happen...
but man would I love it, and it makes total sense for this Bills team. A bonafide pass rush DE, still young, entering his prime, playing along side of Dareus and Meatball… we could look pretty damn good upfront.
This offseason, with FA and the Draft, is one of the more interesting ones I can remember in a while. Lots of talent out there.
Lets Go Buff a lo!
by bflo on Feb 16, 2012 12:01 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Second or Third Tier
It is more likely the Bills go after the second tier pass rushers in FA like Avril. Signing Williams would likely handcuff them too much for their liking with other players they wish to resign and go after.
The #1 FA in a given year is usually a bad investment.
The Bills should not go after a guy like Williams.
I do not think of Avril as 2nd or 3rd tier. Most analysts rate him as one of the top 10 free agents available this year. A team could sign Avril and another guy like Jeremy Mincey, Anthony Spencer or Curtis Lofton for less than they would pay Williams.
I hope the Bills spend as much as it would take to get Williams, and I hope they spend it on 3 different players.
by rat on Feb 16, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Peppers was the #1 FA two years ago. Jared Allen was before him. Were either of those spending sprees unwise? I think not.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
He missed 3 games two years ago. Before only playing 5 this season, he was nearly always on the field. I don’t look at his as a history filled with injury any more than I do Fred Jackson.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Jared Allen was acquired through a trade.
"Everyone who has conducted an expedition will know how ready the world is to do the great injustice of heaping the whole praise or blame for its success or failure on the shoulders of the leader alone."
-Polar Explorer Fridtjof Nansen
by NordicBillsfan on Feb 16, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Draft picks are more costly than monetary moves.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Looks like he'll be a FA
and if you’re a DE, is coming to the Bills the worst thing in the world? you play for an experienced DC next to 2 very good DTs. Obviously we’re not a top choice (climate, city, small stage, Fitz at QB), but I wonder whether we’re at least somewhat attractive to DE free agents.
by the landriest on Feb 17, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Buddy Nix has been too clear to me, he is rebuilding from the draft and getting great deals in free agency, he doesn´t like to overpay for player (I don´t think you can overpay for Williams) so I really don´t think he´s planning to bring Mario Williams to Buffalo
great deals in free agency - like Cornell Green?
Cornell Green…my favorite all time free agent signing. 3 years, $9 million. guy played 5 games, then placed on IR, then cut. Ah, memories…
"WHEN THE WAGON BLASTER TAKES OFF dont try to get in. THE SPACESES ARE LIMITED FOR WINNING ATTITUDE GODZILLA IS COMING GET READY" - abayarde
by StroudFanClub on Feb 16, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
That's still a better deal than Merriman...
At least they cut the cord before paying out the entire $9m.
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by twoeightnine on Feb 16, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand why people continue to think keeping Merriman around is a merry idea.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
BECAUSE LIGHTSOUTPRIMETIMESTUDELITEPLAYER!
Evidence be damned.
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by twoeightnine on Feb 16, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree with your assessment. I’m not (and never was) in the Merriman-will-save-us camp, but I still don’t think bringing in Merriman was a bad idea. I didn’t think it about the TO experiment either. He’s a high-profile guy who, in addition to being talented, was in a buy-low situation. It’s a high-risk, high-reward situation, and while it hasn’t gone well to this point, it gives us a degree of credibility.
I’m still not opposed to keeping him around for the remainder of his contract. We’re not tight against the cap, the money is all but used, and at he has the potential to contribute.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
Merriman
Was a none issue because "surprise’! He had injury issues. He wasn’t a bright spot regardless of so-called bargain price, he didn’t earn it. That in hindsight makes it a bad idea. Surprise!
Don't Worry, Be Happy!
by buffalobacker on Feb 16, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody was surprised when his injuries cropped up again. Let’s get that out of the way first.
Still don’t agree that it was a bad idea. It got Barnett here and that, to me makes it, well, maybe not a wash, but more palatable. I just don’t see that having Merriman on the team made us a worse team. Who were we going to get that would have helped us more that we didn’t go after because Merriman was here? Why is this such a big deal?
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
It’s who they may have passed up in the draft because they signed Merriman.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
Why would you think that?
It always seemed to me that Nix was building from the inside out (as much as possible). Right now, we’ve got the interior. Now we need to start building the middle. I’m guessing DEs and LBs for the defense are coming.
Official ledge-talker-offer of the Buffalo Bills.
Citi Field loves the mets so much it smothers them. -the caveman
by WhyBillsWhy on Feb 17, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Just stating that they may have become comfortable with the idea of Merriman and chose to pursue the position with less fevor.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Its The Bill's
So not a big deal. Typical
Don't Worry, Be Happy!
by buffalobacker on Feb 17, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
And how much money was he actually payed on that contract? It was not the full $9mil so it's not the best example probably.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
Oops, didn't see that point was already made. My mistake.
"I got no problem with 7-9 coming off of 4-12 as long as I don't buy a couch there, you got to keep moving" - Mike Schoop
I could see the Bills making a Peppers / Haynesworth type offer for Mario Williams, and I could see them guaranteeing $50 million.
But I don’t think the Bills will be making an offer that will be so much better than what other teams are offering that Williams would be coming to Buffalo. And that’s what it would take to get him.
by Pistol on Feb 16, 2012 12:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think the perception of the team kills the dream. I think they can and would like to make him a Bill.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty much. You have to be good to get the benefit of the doubt with free agents. Or pay a lot more than anyone else will (which inevitably be a bad contract).
I also feel that some of it has to do with the Patriots. Players know that everyone in the AFCE is looking up at them and likely to be shut out of the playoffs because of them. Why risk that?
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Perception or reality?
When your playoff drought is the longest in the NFL you can’t argue with being “perceived” as a loser.
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by twoeightnine on Feb 16, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Damn
You don’t pull any punches do you? :)
Don't Worry, Be Happy!
by buffalobacker on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
They really are the joke of the NFL.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
very much so.
if there were an equivocal “clown” or “dunce” of the league… We would be it.
"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."
~Socrates
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Speaking of Mr. Haynesworth...
he’s available now after being cut by Tampa. Would you sign him to a deal now?
The next team that does that is the laughingstock of the league.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I assume it is some sort of poker code.
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
Next Team
So your implying Bill’s sign him? Jk.
Don't Worry, Be Happy!
by buffalobacker on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
DO IT!
I’ll start by saying, with the cap room of other teams mentioned in this article it technically might not even be a possibility to get this guy. Now I’ll talk like the hopeful fan that I am… I believe that getting this guy, or a comparable pass rusher (if there is one), prior to the draft is the single greatest move the Bills could make in the offseason. Williams is a proven player that will make an instant impact on the defense, and he still has many years left to be productive. Think about the domino effect of this move as well. This would free up the #10 pick in the draft to go after another position of need (WR, OT, CB). Call me crazy… I really believe that picking this guy up, and the effect it would have on the draft, instantly makes Buffalo a threat to win the division in 2012. Throw everything and the kitchen sink at him, Buddy! With all of that said, I don’t see the Bills going after Williams and offering the amount of money it would take to bring him to B-LO.
by Bills Backer Bob on Feb 16, 2012 12:30 PM EST reply actions
No way with Ralph...
No way does Ralph sign off on this. But if Terry Pegula was the Bills owner, I could see it happening.
I don’t get this sentiment. Ralph spends money in spades.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
he spends
but it’s on 2s, 3s, 4s….not the Jack, Queen, King, or Ace of Spades. That, to me, is the problem.
Spend?, yes…Spend wisely, not so much.
"a play in which nothing happens, that yet keeps audiences glued to their seats". -Vivian Mercier - a description of Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot"
According to Beckett, Godot was a metaphor for the Buffalo Bills :-)
Ralph goes all in
on the Doyle 10-2 or J-7 suited. A-A…he doesn’t care for Aces. That’d be too easy.
"What it takes to win is simple, it's not easy."
-Marv Levy
I don’t know what the hell any of that means.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
texas hold-em
Doyle Brunson’s famous 10-2 hand to win the world poker tour championship. J 7 suited is a hand that if you hit, gets you a lot of cash b/c no one sees the straight. or best possible outcome, straight flush.
I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.
i miss pokerstars.
"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."
~Socrates
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 5:57 AM EST up reply actions
Other Options
I agree with the article. I think a player like Cliff Avril or Mathis is a little bit more realistic for the Bills. Along with another pass rusher or two in the draft
San Francisco
I kind of like how they put their dee’s together…the 2 Smiths with Barrow & Willis….I think we are one draft from that right?
by rexachss on Feb 16, 2012 6:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Signing Williams would never happen and be bad move!
Look at Julius Peppers – Was he worth the money that the Bears gave him? You could say that the Giants Juan-Pierre Paul was more of an impact than Peppers for 1/10th of the price.
Small-market teams don’t have the money to “gamble” on someone like Mario Williams. I doubt he would want to play for the Bills anyhow.
Jared Allen is the only pass-rusher that lived up to the contract! Build the team through the draft, if Bills ever get to the playoffs, then they would be in a position to sign one player if it helped them get to the big game – That is neither here or there.
Peppers is paying off for the Bears, yes.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
and yes, JPP is a better deal
he won’t be when he’s done with his rookie contract
by Slick Shifty on Feb 16, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly. And you bring up an excellent point. If the Bills do eventually draft a stud DE / pressure specialist, they’ll be hard-pressed to keep him if they’re unwilling or unable to pay that player in similar fashion.
U.G.H.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Look at Julius Peppers – Was he worth the money that the Bears gave him
I was trying to think of a big time FA DE that went on to star with another team and the only two that came to mind was Reggie White and Simeon Rice (an I don’t remember if that many teams were after Rice)…
Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.
Vince Lombardi
Charles Haley ring a bell? 5 Super Bowl Rings between the Niners and Cowboys. And as mentioned above – the player who played catalyst to turning Dave W’s defense around.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Good one
Did Haley get a mega contract back then? I always thought he was brought in as a pass rush specialist….
.
Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.
Vince Lombardi
I think for the era he did.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
Wishful thinking....
Williams would definitely give the Bills a defense identity and a immediate rise for fan hope.
The Bucs cut Haynesworth yesterday and his $6.7 million contract, they are now almost $70 million under the cap… The fans here are jumping ship due to the lack of commitment by the Glazers. I fully expect them to make a legitimate push for Mario that no other team could match…
Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.
Vince Lombardi
lol
The fans here are jumping ship
The perfect idiom to describe fans of the Buccaneers. Well done.
by BuffaloBlueBlood on Feb 16, 2012 3:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Though they may be unwilling to spend the money, as evidenced by the huge amount they have free to spend.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
The Glazers
The Glazers make Ralph Wilson look like Dan Snyder when it comes to spending!!
.
Football is like life - it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.
Vince Lombardi
Arizona is even worse.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Jeez, Way To Dump A Bucket Of Cold Water On Everyone...
Come on Brian, you’ve been doing this long enough, you should “get it” by now.
This brief period of time between the end of the Super Bowl and the start of Free Agency is the best time of the year to be a Buffalo Bills fan! In fact, it is the ONLY time of year that being a Bills fan is not a completely miserable and depressing experience. This is the one and only time of the year that we actually get to pretend that the Buffalo Bills are going to do something positive which will fire up the fan base and give us a real shot at being competitive.
OF COURSE we all know, deep down, that will not happen and we will all come away from free agency tremendously disappointed but that doesn’t mean we have to think about it now. The massive delusions of grandeur leading up to free agency are one of the few things that makes being a Bills fan semi-bearable.
Way to ruin that for all of us, dude… :(
by SabreNation on Feb 16, 2012 2:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
They don't need to break the bank...not worth it
Williams is a great player, but it’s not necessary for the Bills to go all crazy to sign a guy like him. #1, they can draft a pass rusher in rd. 1…hopefully they do. #2, it seems that looking at the potentially available free agents that there will be plenty of other available DEs out there for Buffalo to go after…without having to blow all their money. I would LOVE for them to sign Williams, but it ain’t gonna happen. And if by some REMOTE chance it happens, then they won’t have any money left for anyone else on their roster.
Here's why its a possibility
Williams is going to hit the free agent market, the franchise tag is not an option and there is no way for the Texans to negotiate a workable deal before free agency AND they have 3 great pass rushers to fill his spot.
Regarding the Bills chance I think its very real. I predicted a 9-7 finish for this squad last year because I think thats the talent level they have. I believe they showed some of that in the first half of last season before injury and a limited talent pool on offense cause teams to figure them out. This team is close and quite frankly, Nix and Gailey both know they have to make a notable improvement in the standings and become competitive to retain some better job security. No player can offer as much to that cause as Mario Williams – arguably not even a QB.
The Bills have been longing for a pass rush for too long – it is the teams clearest weak point, Mario Williams is incredibly young for his talent level so the money will be a long-term investment. The Bills already look foolish switching back to a 4-3 and grabbing Mario Williams will validate that move instantaneously.
Finally, Buddy Nix has promised to build through the draft. The Bills have done so – RB, no.1 WR, slot WR, our two best offensive lineman, both our LTs both our DTs, our MLB, our CBs, and our safeties are all players drafted by the Bills or picked up as undrafteds. The Bills have built through the draft. Mario Williams would be the big splash to complement it.
He’s the BPA, hes the biggest position of need, he’s on the defensive side of the ball which Nix has been trying to fix since day one, he’s in his PRIME just turning 27, and the Bills might be looking at a division with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
All great passing teams need a pass rush to make the other offense pay for trying to keep up. The Bills haven’t had that and in today’s high flying NFL the only other way to help Chan Gailey out besides giving him offensive talent is to give him the best pass rusher in the league.
Recent history is on the side of the decision to break the bank on Williams. Jared Allen immediately contributed in a major way to making the Vikings contenders and Julius Peppers has done the same in Chicago – both paid off and were worth the cost. The importance of the position validates QB type money and Williams is far more elite than Fitzpatrick is at this position. Terrell Suggs was just named the NFL defensive player of the year, the Steelers have been riding James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley for a long time, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney propelled Colts defenses in support of Manning and the Giants have now won TWO Super Bowls powered by their fearsome defensive line and pass rushers.
Williams, Williams, Dareus is too enticing. If he hits the market the Bills will be players to break the bank. If their not and then maybe I’ll start listening a bit more to Port Royal and Jason from OH-IO who say the management of this team is not willing to do what other teams are to win.
Everything makes sense for the Bills to sell the farm. And I believe they’ll try. At least I have too.
This even grates my passive cheese - LeClaire Bill
by poz on Feb 16, 2012 3:32 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
I’m hoping they do too. For all the reasons you list above, Williams is a fit for Bills. I just don’t believe they’re willing to go the extra mile to improve personnel under Wilson (ever since he got burnt by Donahoe).
"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix
Unfortunately, I don’t either. I think between cutting certain players and carrying over cap space they could do it without seriously hampering the roster – but I don’t know that for sure.
Nix might be at a point where he doesn’t think that the team is ready for that yet too however, so that could be an reason
I love this plan! I'm excited to be a part of it! LET'S DO IT! - Venkman
by J2 on Feb 16, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Nix might be at a point where he doesn’t think that the team is ready for that yet too however, so that could be an reason
This. I realize you need to plan ahead some, for when we ARE ready, but I think we are further away than most hope. I personally, don’t think there are many guys in the league of the quality of Mario, but that is why we would have to fight pretty hard, and he in and of himself really isn’t probably an end all be all solution.
"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."
~Socrates
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
This is full of good stuff.
Arguing that the team wouldn’t ever pay Williams the money because it’d be more than Fitzpatrick is silly. Fitzpatrick is an average QB, making average starters’ money. He’s paid accordingly. The Bills don’t have a superstar. Mario Williams would instantly become the face of the franchise if they signed him. Instantly.
He’d sell out games, he’d invigorate the fanbase. The money they’d make off his coming to town would be a coup for this regime.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Just Had This Conversation With Someone Else...
This an absolutely perfect situation for both Mario Williams and the Buffalo Bills. For the Bills, Williams could be the catalyst of a truly elite defense and defensive line. He is one of the best pass rushers in the league and he is incredibly young. Young guys with that level of talent do not become free agents very often, it is incredibly rare in the NFL that a talent like Mario Williams hits the open market before their 30th B-Day. Williams changes the whole face of defense immediately.
It’s a perfect fit for Williams as well. He gets to move back to his natural position of 4-3 DE and he gets to play on the best defensive line he’s ever had for support. KW and Dareus are monsters who basically require the attention of two linemen each. You can’t double team all three of them. The size and strength in the middle would free up Williams to excel on the outside.
It is a match made in heaven.
Of course all of this means absolutely nothing and does not, at all, address the point Brian made here. What reason is there to believe that the Bills will make a play at the most expensive free agent available? They have never, ever done it before so it would be a complete departure from normal business for the team. So, where is the evidence that they are prepared to make such a wild departure from tradition?
The fact still remains that only once since the start of the free agency era has this team made a big splash by signing a marquee free agent. That was when they signed Terrell Owns and at that point in his career he was old, washed up, had completely tarnished his own reputation, and no other team would touch him. Oh and we got him on SUPER cheap for a WR with his name value.
by SabreNation on Feb 16, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Plan B
I agree with everything you say Poz, but let’s assume that the Bills do make a bid for M.Williams and at some point (fairly early in the process?) they realize that they won’t be a finalist for his services? What about trying to help the Texas keep M.Williams? We wouldn’t want him ending up with a team that the Bills would be playing regularly either (don’t the Jets need a RDE also?) What if the Bills offered to take the Texans 2nd best pass rusher off their hands via trade (draft pick)? That would help clear some cap room an they’d still have plenty of capable bodies sitting on the bench after re-signing M.Williams. (I would still make a run a C.Avril as well though…)
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." --Anais Nin
furthering this thought process...
If trading for the Texans 2nd best pash rusher doesn’t clear them enough cap room (and it probably wouldn’t), what about also taking another player who might cost a lot more but isn’t significanlty more talented than their #2 at that position (or maybe a #2 who gets paid more than a #1 — I don’t know their roster, so I don’t know who that might be).
As an example, let’s say the two Texans players count $10M against the Bills cap. That’s (likely) half as much as M.Williams would have cost and the Bills get one pass rusher, another decent player and still have room to sign other FAs (including another pass rusher). Clearing $10M off the Texans payroll should give them enough room to re-sign M.Williams and they’d add a pick (or two) as part of the deal.
"We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." --Anais Nin
No Economic Sense
Do we need this guy? Yes. At his best price? No. This guy’s deal is just too rich. A small market team is resigned to finding a top 5 player and not the best available player unless he is the franchise.
Peyton Manning is Exhibit A in why channeling an unreasonable amount of cash into one player is risky; the best QB perhaps in the NFL pre-injury, but he sucks the oxygen out of his team when he goes down.
The Bills don’t have that many players who are good enough and cheap enough to make a competitive roster to pay him top dollar.
The only way we get him – and/or similar others – is where there is a huge desire to play for the Bills (i.e. if they were a continual contender) where a guy wants to win and is reasonable in his salary demands.
I clearly don’t see that here. If paying for a contender is the objective, he would do better to take a little less and stay where he is.
Go big or go home.
For that amount of money, I don’t want him – no way. He is a great player don’t get me wrong, but we have too many needs on defense to sell the farm for one unreliable player. I’d rather limit my risk and spread that money out among a few players who are legit. Get a pass rusher in the draft, who’ll be 5 years younger. Giving it all up for one player is never a good idea, especially for a team that is trying to build something good. If you break the bank for this guy and he goes down, your team is down.
If Aaron Rodgers were the player in question here, would you find it foolish to pursue and land him? He’s more likely to go down to injury as the QB. He’s more likely to cause his team to suffer. He’s worth the risk. So is Williams.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
No not foolish to land Rodgers – obviously. Alright, yeah I’d probably risk it all on an elite QB…most good teams have good QBs. My opinion, I wouldn’t risk it all for Williams, he doesn’t compare to the risk and reward of an elite QB. If we already had a bunch of talent on our team I’d say risk it for Williams, but we need players, players need money…multiple players, not just one.
As a long time fan...
I have not even considered for a second he is coming to Buffalo. They will try to fix this through the draft or swipe the a cheaper option in free agency while eveyone is focussed on WIlliams.
I hope i am wrong, but Wilson has never gone bananas over free agents.
THE +++++BUFFALO CRUSHERS ++++++. WHAGON BLASTERS ++++ ARE THE REAL DEAL WE ARE THE YING AND THE YANG . SO GET READY CAUSE NO ONE I MEAN NO ONE IS STOPIN THE WHAGON BLASTER BUYAAAAAAA - Abayarde
Wilson goes bananas, but players choose to go elsewhere. It’s known he tries to win players’ over.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 16, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Enough with this logic garbage.
The Bills will sign Mario Williams and I will be VERY disappointed if they dont.
sarcasm.
As a perpetually optimistic Bills fan, I will hope that they do, but I don’t have any real hope or expectation that they will. But I do expect that they will address the pass rush early in the draft and with a free agent pick up. Whoever it is I will make out to be the next Bruce Smith and will predict a Super Bowl victory for the upcoming season.
With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.
Either way....
It is no slam-dunk. Even if the Bills decided to go for broke, Mario might not be the best way to go……
When green bay shocked the world and made Reggie white the highest paid defender in the NFL. They paid the best defensive player in the game (aside from maybe Bruce).
They paid a great leader.
They paid a guy who did not get injured……
I don’t think you can say any of those things about super Mario?
Just how good is he?
I never focused on him in a game…..
The highest I’ve seen him in NFL rankings is 5th defensive end…..
The contract would cause any team some cap problems…..
You have to look at who is definaely available and what their contracts might be, but maybe it would be better to sign two or three guys instead.
At least all 3 wouldn’t get hurt…..
It is a tough call, even if the Bills are going to spend enough to seriously build a team to compete for a superbowl.
Enough of the talk that Buddy said we are going to build through the draft…..we have a lot of great players who are at or beyond their peak now. We are close enough to add two great new players, keep our core and nail the draft to have a shot. We also have the money.
Mr. G. Wilson, Fred Jackson, nick Barnett and Kyle are at their prime right now. This almost looks like a list of our best players…..Let’s win now!
PodunkO - The great post ender!
Great Write-up
Very well stated with no bs. Nice Brian. PS, five yrs will go by faster as you get older, trust me. :)
Don't Worry, Be Happy!
Unless you experience no career growth.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
No, IMO it will inhibit the team if not now, in later years of the contract.
My biggest problem with this whole discusion is 1. his injury history. and 2. There are other really good RDE’s available that wont cost the team and will improve the team while letting Nix address other positions as well. Football is a team sport I would rather improve 4-5 positions that are in need then have the bragging rights of the best RDE in football and not be able to afford to fix the other positons.
Please base your arguments in provable facts instead of pulling stuff out of your rear. -CanadianBillsFan- This is why talk is cheap because the supply always exceeds the demand.
Forget about it
It’s not happening. This makes to much sense. We would rather resign Kelsay and give Fitz money who I don’t believe is worthy of it. Was exposed for lack of arm strength so that quick slant stuff won’t work.. That’s another problem.. What about signing Merriman to a 2yr deal even after he got hurt before even played a down.. This guy might be the best since the Reggie White moves which was the biggest to date as far as fa go..This guy would change that D over night… Said it before were not moving in a good directions until every one is gone Chan, Nix and RW
Hey thanks!
For that link…..
It was fun to watch, I no so little about the guy…..
I still say, it is no slam dunk. When you give a guy that much money, he can cause a lot of financial problems……
Ones hard to for see….
PodunkO - The great post ender!
Mario Williams is a cool dude.
http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/323850?eref=sircrc&eref=fromSI
But the news is a bit of a downer to me.
"Son. People can see you!"
by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 10:47 AM EST reply actions
As much as I'd love him on the Bills
I’d also like him to stay in Houston. I like it when players work with their teams to take lower contracts than they could get on the market in order to stay with the team that gave them the shot.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
I think Mario Williams could be our Bruce Smith. I think he will be worth the money that might be required to acquire him. I definitely hope the front office goes after this guy and gets him.
i agree
but i am skeptical.
"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."
~Socrates
by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
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