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Thoughts On A Potential Fred Jackson Contract Extension

I did a little question and answer session Friday morning on Twitter (you can follow me here), and one topic that comes up quite frequently in my inbox and these tweet sessions is the future of Fred Jackson. I don't believe the Buffalo Bills should extend his contract, and people disagree with me. The running back turns 31 on Monday.

Here's what history shows us: running backs break down after the age of 30. Just look at some of the top rushers from the early 2000s who had little success after their 30th birthdays. It's a list of superstars, MVPs, and Hall of Famers: Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Clinton Portis, and Jamal Lewis, just to name a few. Holmes was named All-Pro a few months after turning 30, and never started more than eight games in a season again. Bettis made a Pro Bowl at 32, but did it by starting only six games. That's it as far as league awards for that great crop of backs.

Star-divide

In 2011, Willis McGahee rushed for 1,199 yards and was a replacement in the Pro Bowl. He turned 30 halfway through the season and wasn't expected be the starter in the backfield going into the season. Injuries gave him the bulk of the Denver Broncos' carries and he responded, though he played through injuries himself as the season wore on.

Jackson was having a Pro Bowl season in 2011 and on pace for almost 1,500 yards on the ground when a broken leg cut short his year. With that said, relying on him to be an every-down back for the majority of a new three or four-year deal is not good business, in my opinion. Yes, he should be rewarded for his great play - and a team like the Bills, who have an up-and-coming back he can share carries with, makes perfect sense. But Jackson is expecting to be paid like a top-tier starter in the NFL.

On September 1, Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson set the bar for that group of running backs, signing a six-year, $55 million contract with more than half of it guaranteed. Jackson out-scored and almost out-gained Johnson in 2011 despite playing in six fewer games. He deserves to be paid like Johnson for past production, but that type of contract would be an albatross around any team's neck when Jackson starts to slip.

We also need to address the concept of the Bills rewarding Jackson for his good play to show others that they will get long-term deals if they perform. Buddy Nix has already shown he is willing to do that with extensions for Erik Pears, Kyle Williams, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrison Sanborn and Rian Lindell. How many players need to be extended for their young players to see that it's a trend?

So what say you, Bills fans? With Jackson's 31st birthday just around the corner, should Buffalo offer a lucrative three- of four-year contract north of $6 million a season?

Comment 302 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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are you nuts?

Dude only makes $2mm a year and you want to cut him?

We don’t need to give him a 7-year $50mm contract, but what’s wrong with another 3 years and $15mm on top of his existing contract? That way we’ll have him for another 4 years at $17mm, splitting carries with CJ Spiller.

Carrying only half the load should give him continued productivity to 34 (like Marcus Allen)

by paythemannow on Feb 17, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

release him

I’m sorry, can you say that again, it sounded like you wanted to release our best offensive player from last year.

by Xaviermw on Feb 17, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions   4 recs

One of the NFL’s best offensive players, at that.

What does Fred Jackson have to do to gain respect in Buffalo?

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I have ZERO use for a 31 year old running back when I have CJ Spiller who is still under 25 and was drafted 9TH overall.

by Michael_Necci on Feb 17, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Did the Bills have ZERO use for him during the first 10 games of 2011?

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup, cause teams never use more than one running back. I just don’t see how releasing him helps the team, and we’ve already had a whole thread dedicated to the whole trade Fred Jackson thing, and I’m in the camp that believes the Bills wouldn’t be able to get a draft pick package that would be worth it.

by kfisk214 on Feb 17, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m in the camp where you don’t get rid of your best players.

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

He can’t be serious.

GET TO THE CHOPPA!!!

by hoosier3 on Feb 17, 2012 2:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I’d sat we’re in agreement. Love Fred, want him here.

by kfisk214 on Feb 17, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I have ZERO use for a 31 year old running back…

Spiller and Jackson are two different types of backs and their style of play complements each other.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Meanwhile Chan Gailey sees little reason to use Spiller as a true feature back.

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

extend him. Freds attributes are breaking tackles, good receiver, good blocker, intelligence. If he stays healthy, he’ll be productive for a few more years. I can’t believe people want to give up on him. Let him retire a Bill.

by sarasotabillsfan on Feb 17, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

is still under 25 and was drafted 9TH overall.

Do both of those things have something to do with Spiller suddenly being a better back than Jackson somehow? Because he’s not, though he started to look like it late in the year.

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by UZ on Feb 18, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you a Bills fan?

"Sit down and watch my Buffalo Bills destroy your Kingdome" - Abayarde

Chris Kelsay is a good football player.

by nickdaniels on Feb 17, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Do not question people’s fandom. Are you questioning mine for not wanting to extend him?

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Certainly seems like a reasonable inquiry considering the inanity of the proposition. Trade him? It’s a silly idea, but I am willing to hear you out. Release him? That makes no sense.

by inthegaddadavida on Feb 17, 2012 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Anybody who has been commenting on a Bills blog for three years is probably a fan. And, I don’t disagree with the thought that if the options are
1. Paying him as a top 5 back for 4 years
or
2. Releasing him if no trade partner can be found

That releasing him might be better long term for this team b/c years 3 and 4 of that deal will probably not look so great for him.

Just b/c you think opinions are extreme doesn’t give license to you or anyone to claim someone is less of a fan than you.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

If he holds out, wouldn’t you think about releasing him?

by MattRichWarren on Feb 18, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I was going to ask the same thing mainly because I figure he must be a Jets, Dolphins or New England fan. MRW, You say you dont want to re-sign Fred at all or just not to a large deal? The above article confused me on where you stand.

by phalupah on Feb 17, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Michael is a very big Bills fan.

I don’t want the Bills to re-sign Fred Jackson because the money it would take to do that is not going to be what Fred’s production over the years of the extension will be worth.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

MRW..... you killed it right there with the real truth of the whole situation.

Rec’d.
We all want Fred as a Bill. Fred wants to be a Bill.
Fred wants more money and another contract.
Fred is under contract for another year.
Fred is awesome.
Fred wants to be the feature back.
Fred is over 30.
Fred was better than CJ by far last year.

AHHHHHHHH!!! The Ying and Yang in my brain are hurting me.

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 17, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Better than CJ by far ???

Sorry I disagree once CJ got off the bench he proved more than capable. I loved Fred but the 30 year old wall is a well known obsticle.

by ONEREALMAN on Feb 18, 2012 7:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Okay. Then you stand in front of Fred and test that out.

by AP22 on Feb 18, 2012 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

so you cut him to save 2 mill?

or you think he will play his contract? Or you don’t care either way?

i think that the three remaining are solid, for sure. The only reason i support a trade, is because we don’t NEED him per say. But i think he has a lot of value still, as long as we don’t distort that with a contract.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

If he doesn’t have an extension, it wouldn’t stun me if Freddy doesn’t report to camp and cause all sorts of issues.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Wait…I was responding to the
“you think he will play his contract?” part, but now I’m not sure what you mean. I originally thought you meant play OUT his contract, but now I’m not so sure.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

i am suggesting, he might holdout.

that was all. I think you follow. and i think you agree. i was asking what he thought, since he isn’t necessarily on board to re-sign.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

HASTA LA VISTA BABY

i love my 30 year old car but if I want to compete I take the new one

by ONEREALMAN on Feb 18, 2012 7:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

2 years only

meaning, extend his curernt contract by a year. Pay the man somewhere in the $5m/season range and guarantee the money in respect for what he has brought to the team every day.

by NoiseIsTheBestRevenge on Feb 17, 2012 11:11 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

I am down for a 1- or 2-year deal. There’s no way that would break the bank and it would definitely reward HIM for his performance. He is too good to just cut away, and the Bills would never get value for him in a trade.

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No one circles the waiver wire like the Buffalo Bills!

by thefourwinds on Feb 17, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

The length of the deal isn’t an issue due to NFL contracts not being guaranteed. He’s earned a raise and some good money up front, but if they signed him for 6 years at 6 million a season I wouldn’t freak out because he most likely won’t be on the roster in 3 years.

GET TO THE CHOPPA!!!

by hoosier3 on Feb 17, 2012 2:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

what if Jackson holds out

And forces the Bills hand in getting an extension done, to force a trade or release him. That is my only concern about not getting an extension done now. It can have an impact on the team and hurt the season.

While I Dont think the Bills should give Jackson Copspeed money but he is entitled to mid-tier running back money for the next three seasons. I think even with a reduced workload his experience, his leadership on the field and in the locker room is essential for rebuilding a winning team

Paranoids are not paranoid because they're paranoid, but because they keep putting themselves...deliberately into paranoid situations.

by christopher.j on Feb 17, 2012 11:11 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

While your holdout concern is understandable...

There has been nothing in Jackson’s past actions or behaviors that would indicate holding out as a possibility. Hell, this is exactly why so many (my self included) want him paid for past effort/production. Extending a 30+ year old back (with time left on their current deal) is foolish, IMO. Especially if you’re talking about a raise. Jackson is the exception.

Three year deal (this year +2), 15-18M, 10-12 guaranteed. Thank you Mr. Jackson, enjoy your retirement.

"WE’RE SUPER FREAKY" – STEVIE J
The Bills are like your parents. You can’t choose them, and no matter how much they disappoint you, and no matter how much you want to hate them, you simply love them. - BuffaloOwdaTwnr

by BigBlkGr8Dane on Feb 17, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Does Fred have leverage for a holdout?

First, I don’t see anything wrong with a holdout. Players have a very short window to make big money and I respect anything they have to do to get what they deserve. What they deserve is what they can get. This is doubly and triply true for Fred – his window is even smaller than most players’.

Fred has no leverage. He’s coming back from injury and on the wrong side of 30. And he’s got a potential superstar in the making chomping at the bit for more action right behind him. The best he can do is a feel good story for us older cats.

His best argument for an extension right now is to get rewarded for past performance. This is totally in the FO’s hands. What they have to gauge is his value to the team, and a good chunk of that value is the team’s good will with the fans. Players will talk about his leadership value, but that opinion is worth as much as run of the mill post-game player speak.

If Fred holds out, he will lose some fan support.

In the end, it makes no sense for Fred to hold out. Maybe if the sides aren’t far apart, the threat could make a deal happen, but if they are in different universes Fred gets cut (In which case we can expect him to relish the chance to come back and drop 250 yards and a couple TDs on us) or traded.

Fred is in a bad spot. I feel for him.

I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse

by oompaloompa on Feb 17, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

leverage is more than what you can offer

It also deals with perception. It’s hard to sign big names or resign key players when you are perceived as being cheap or being an abuser (for the latter using players and spitting them out after they perform their hearts out would be an abuse IMO) in Fred’s case If you have nothing to lose and everything to gain then go for it: turn the tables on the Bills and let them deal with the fall out.

As for fan support its forgive and forget as long as we win. remember Jim Kelly….probably our most famous hold out???

Paranoids are not paranoid because they're paranoid, but because they keep putting themselves...deliberately into paranoid situations.

by christopher.j on Feb 17, 2012 5:01 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

FJ has plenty to lose

He hasn’t made a ton of $ in his career and he’s got $2mm+ (?) coming up next year. If he holds out and CJ performs well, he may very well fade into oblivion and never play again. The world is unpredictable and you never know if people are willing to make roster space for a 32/33-yo RB who hasn’t played in a year.

Personally I love FJ and really hope that we reward him something for the past. I’m not talking about a 7-year deal with a huge guarantee. But give the man $10mm guaranteed over the next 2 years. Would produce a ton of goodwill with the fans and whatever other free agents they might want to acquire in the future.

by paythemannow on Feb 17, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree

But that is just my mindset in such matters: never settle when you are entitled to more. Why risk injury and your career for mid level money when the organization is expecting you to carry a top tier workload. Don’t settle and use what you can.

Paranoids are not paranoid because they're paranoid, but because they keep putting themselves...deliberately into paranoid situations.

by christopher.j on Feb 17, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions  

leverage is an art form. its tough to play. I think we like to believe that players, backed by fans, can muster the leverage to get a fair deal, but in the end, this is the owners’ game. I see your point about players not wanting to come to Buffalo, but a lot of the reasons players might not want to come to Buffalo could be said for a place like Green Bay, or Cleveland, or Cincy, or Pittsburgh. These places are not NY, LA, Boston, Miami, Dallas, etc. but players will go and live anywhere for a few years if they believe they will have a chance to win. Glory still weighs heavily in the equation for players. The biggest problem with Buffalo attracting players is our W-L record.

The way things are, I tend to agree with paythemannow. I think as fans we rightfully believe that Fred should get rewarded, but business tends to prevail, and in terms of business, Fred doesn’t have much to stand on.

I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse

by oompaloompa on Feb 19, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

2 year deal

I think a good compromise would be a two year deal that kicks in this year. We can pay him well for 2 years as a reward for previous production but the contract is up by the time he’s 33.

by buffalo_bills on Feb 17, 2012 11:12 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

I have to agree

Talk of 3 or 4 years deals is ridiculous at his age.

It needs to be a 2 year deal and include this year as one of the years (ie it’s really a 1 year extension with more money this year than he would have made previously)

I also believe that 6 million a year is way too much due to his age – 2 years with 6 – 8 million total. It’s a nice thank you extension without crippling the team moving forwards and he won’t get better elsewhere at his age if he foolishly holds out.

That said, I also have no beef with MRW’s point that he doesnt even need to be extended, because in 18 months when he’s 32 1/2 you cannot expect a lot of production – and thats the first meaningful date that he’d be out of his current contract.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Explain to me why he can’t be effective for 3 more years? He’s 31, but his total number of carries is much lower than other NFL backs (yes, including his years in Europe and the AFL). The body doesn’t magically stop working at 30.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

No question mark there.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not just gameday carries

it drills, training, cuts and runs in training as well as genetics and general “father time” those all count along with actual logged gameday carries.

You don’t think that general people who’ve never had a single NFL carry don’t slow down after 30 as well to some degree ? The difference is that in the NFL once you lose that slight step / edge it’s all over for you. I’m not saying he will be a decrepid old man who needs a walking frame in 3 years, however historically once you’re past 30 you start to slow down no matter what walk of life you are in – and it the NFL .1 or .2 of a second is the difference between success and failure in most things.

Can you explain to me why Fred WILL be the exception to the rule and why he will still be productive at 33 and beyond like you suggest

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Can you explain to me why Fred WILL be the exception to the rule and why he will still be productive at 33 and beyond like you suggest

He already IS the exception to your (and other’s of course) standards. There is little to no evidence to suggest that he is on the decline. In fact, he is statistically peaking, because he was more productive on less carries, and well about his overall career averages last season, than he was in his original “breakout” year.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

about=above

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Using the above example, Priest Holmes peaked at the age of 30 and started 8 games the next season, four the season after that, didn’t play the next year, and was a spot duty back up in his final season.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

his prime was 01-03.

he was 29-31. he missed two games in his season when he was 30. he did drop off dramatically when he was 32….and beyond. So, i don’t disagree that fred could fall off.

I only used Priest because he was used above.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

First, I don’t think they have nearly the impact on your body that full contact gameday carries do.

Second, I agree with TRT above…he is statistically peaking, well after most RBs peak, and has given absolutely no indication there will be a decline at all. What this comes down to solely is his age, and that’s not enough of a reason, in my opinion, to not pay him for the production we are likely to get out of him going forward.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

The body doesn’t magically stop working at 30.

No but those bruises and nicks take longer and longer to heal from.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

absolutely, you have to give him a contract of at least 3 years….first, he has earned it. secondly, he makes the offense better, he is agreat receiver out of the back field, or for the screen, and when you need power yards, he is one of the best. I think spiller definately stepped it up this past season, but honestly, i’d like to see more of him as a dual threat combo. spiller can run the ball well, but not in situations like third and short, but I love when he comes out of the back field as a receiver along side fred…..i just think that when it comes to work ethic and team leadership, it is vital to keep fred on the team.

by MullyBB on Feb 17, 2012 11:18 AM EST reply actions  

To continue the Fred love:
-His chip blocking is a sight to behold.
-The screen pass with him causes a lot of defensive headaches.
-His decisiveness and elusiveness compensate for his lack of break away speed.
-The combo of Freddy/CJ gives us the best opportunity to win (do you remember the combo of CJ/Choice from the end of the year?).

Extend the man.

by Jean Rasczak on Feb 17, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   3 recs

Yes

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleMa00.htm

Between ages 33-36 Marcus Allen averaged about 800 yards and 8 TD’s a season. Since Fred Jackson came into the league late, I see no reason why Jackson can’t play as long as Allen and actually put up better numbers than him.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 11:21 AM EST reply actions  

I think jackson is hindering spillers development

"They’re a very special group of men. Cherish them, you will not see their like again."

by chaucer on Feb 17, 2012 11:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Fred Jackson is a mentor. Marshawn actually flew him out to Seattle for the famous earthquake run. He’s only making Spiller better. Even with Freddie gone, it’s not like CJ would get 30 touches a game.

by Munchausen on Feb 17, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

As a running back, a guy has AT MOST 10 years. Spiller’s looking at that 30 ceiling, too. If I’m him, I’m thinking, “It was nice to have a mentor, but I gotta get out there and make my mark on the world while I can.”

I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse

by oompaloompa on Feb 17, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Spiller is hindering Spiller’s development.

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

I would love to see Jackson get 20-25 carries a game, with Spiller getting 10-15. I think with that amount of carries per game, it gives both RB’s the best opportunity to be effective. With having only 1 RB get the majority of the carries, and the other only getting a handful, the RB with the less carries is always going to be ineffective, as we saw this past year when Jackson was the starter & Spiller was the backup, and again when Spiller was the starter and Choice was the backup.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

How many teams hand the ball of 30-50 times a game? The Bills ran the ball 24 times a game last season.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

When you got 2 stellar RB’s in Jackson and Spiller, why not run it 30-40 times a game. It worked for the Ravens when they won the Superbowl in 2000, when they had Jamal Lewis and Priest Holmes. I’m not saying the Bills SHOULD do it every single game, because there have been games (like the Pittsburgh game) where the Steelers “D” shut down the run game, but Jackson had success in the short passing game. Jackson & Spiller have both proven to be effective at catching the ball as well.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Fred is no Jamal Lewis. That dude was a beast. We can only hope Spiller becomes Priest. That was a ridiculous RB tandem.

I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse

by oompaloompa on Feb 17, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone that puts up 2,000 rushing yards in a season (like Lewis did) is a beast. Lewis & Holmes were an awesome RB tandem. I truly believe, if used properly, that Jackson & Spiller could become the best RB tandem in the league. IMO, Jackson is an elite player, and Spiller has the potential to become an elite player.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Well

We had Fred and Spiller THIS YEAR and we ran it 24 times a game – what makes you think they change to 30-40 carries a game next year when we’ll have the same 2 backs, same coach etc ?

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Defense

If the Bills can put together a better defense, that way they are not behind in games like they were this past year, then you will see the carries increase. With having to play from behind most of the season, Gailey had no choice but to call for more passes than runs.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

There is something in that

However it’s very unlikely we improve enough this year to see an increase of carries like you suggest which would be in the order of 25 – 75 % more carries than last year.

Even if the D improves we’d be unlikely to carry it more than an additional 10% (and remember our D could be worse with another scheme change so the chance for less carries and more games from behind also exists)

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Most people want to see more running but I just don’t think Chan Gailey’s got it in him. :-)

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

i know.

ugh. i mean, why? i don’t even care about a two headed attack… we wouldn’t use them both anyway.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

You’ve got one RB on your side of the argument and he’s a hall of famer. I’ve got a bunch more HOFers who fell flat.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I could see your point about RB’s level of play going down after 30. But, Jackson has not had the wear and tear of the NFL like the RB’s you mentioned. If Jackson came into the league and was a starter like Alexander & Tomlinson (right after college), then you have a valid points. But since Jackson played in the Arena Leagues, and was a backup RB in the NFL for a few years, I feel Jackson is a “Young 30 year old RB” and still has a lot left in the tank. IMO, the Bills should give him a 3-4 year deal.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Between the arena league and NFL Europe, Jackson has played as many snaps and has as much tread on his tires. Just because he wasn’t in the NFL doesn’t mean he wasn’t running and taking hits.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

So you’re saying the arena league and NFL Europe are at the same level as the NFL? Also, the years Jackson was on the practice squad and a backup didn’t preserve some of the years on his career?

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

If he's not then I will

Sure ,the guys tackling are not as good, but neither is the blocking – so you end up taking just as many hits in those lower leagues ! So absolutely YES, the wear and tear from those lower leagues is every bit as taxing on a body as the NFL (at least certainly very close to it).

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not saying the lower leagues aren’t physical, but the men that play in the NFL are bigger, stronger, faster and more physical.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

including the blockers up front

You know what happens to a RB when he has crappy clocking I assume. It’s not pretty !

I just don’t buy the blind faith that he has less wear and tear from playing in lower leagues. I’ve seen many of those lower league games where guys take brutal career ending hits !

Trust me – every code of football all around the world has big, nasty and brutal players in it capable of dealing out good hits. Just because they may not possess the skills overall to play in the elite leagues doesn’t mean they can’t pound a ball carrier.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

So you’re saying the arena league and NFL Europe are at the same level as the NFL?

No. I said he took hits and was still running the ball. The guys in those leagues are still in the top 2-3% of football players in the world.

Also, the years Jackson was on the practice squad and a backup didn’t preserve some of the years on his career?

I think the human body starts to break down at a certain point regardless of years in his career. Extending him beyond the 2012 season would be very risky.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

About the human body breaking down

That’s obviously true, but if that was the only factor then every position would decline at 30. I know that you know the reason that’s not the case is because of the different natures of each position. Running backs break down because of all the carries, hits, etc. I think stetzweb has made a good point that his years before the NFL do not equate to playing those same years in the NFL because of the reduced number of games in the AFL and NFL Europe and sitting on the bench in the NFL. Obviously, we there’s not much statistical evidence to back up Fred not breaking down, but his whole carry has been the exception to the rule.

by kfisk214 on Feb 17, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

right

there are exceptions. Fred can be one. He already is by a career standpoint.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd like to agree

However exceptions are exceptions – they are not the general rule. I’d love for you to be right and for Fred to be an exception, however wishing for an exception is just wishful thinking – history teaches us so.

Again, I’d love to be wrong on this !

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:40 AM EST up reply actions  

No, he hasn’t…he played 18 games total in the arena league in 2 years, and only ran for 730 yards in Europe in his one season there, and he sat our most of 2007 in the NFL. He has played a lot, but not nearly as much as a 31 year old who has been in the NFL his whole career, especially one as a feature back.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

but but but

he is old. not that Clinton Portis isn’t drawing interest already, or anything. ; )

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha, well he’s definitely old for a running back, and I certainly don’t want to pay him like a 26 year old elite back, but he does deserve an extension in my mind, and can be effective and healthy for another few years. This is especially necessary if Gailey’s going to continue to limit Spiller’s time.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

not even if he has the same equivalent exposure to the NFL

as a 26 year old? because while i accept I am in the minority, and might be the LONE person who thinks he is elite, i think he has the potential to be a solid runner for 2-3 years, and that really only means adding him for 2 additional years, to be a solid backup to Spiller, in the third year, at the latest.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I definitely believe he has at least 2 or 3 years left in him as a feature back, but I’m not sure that paying him Chris Johnson money is smart, regardless. Of course, I didn’t think paying Chris Johnson Chris Johnson money was smart, but that’s beside the point.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

i hear that.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Same with some of MRWs examples

Priest Holmes played sparingly for his first couple of years as well – he still broke down at 30.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

How many years did Holmes play sparingly versus Jackson? That makes a difference.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

i said the same below

and completely agree. if you want to take one variable into consideration, you need to factor the rest of the variables as well. otherwise, why make the comparisons in the first place. Fred’s journey is an exception.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd say 2 years each

I do not buy the NFL vs lower leagues argument re wear and tear on a body.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

you don’t think that 10 years of NFL hits is different than 4 (really only 3) NFL and 2 NFL Europe (lesser comp) and a year of Arena football (indoor/less hits to begin with, less running… etc)?

I disagree.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

i mean, he had lower comp in college too.

i think that matters. It is cool if you don’t. I just think there is a significant difference when it comes to technique/size/speed/impact in the NFL.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Works both ways though

As I’ve pointed out elsewhere – the blocking is also of a lesser overall quality to the defenders. So overall you are open to the same amount of big hits.

Big men who can hit exist in all football leagues whether you choose to believe it or not :-)

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

well i disagree emphatically regarding Arena.

I understand and agree with the logic though.

I am not living in some kind of delusion though. I understand they are hitting in all leagues.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

No worries

and I’m obviously not calling you deluded either so we’re clear :-)

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

ok, no offense taken or anything but.....
whether you choose to believe it or not

i mean, saying that someone is choosing to believe reality or not, is kinda suggesting they are not sharing your same reality ie delusional.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

not at all

Just because you don’t share my opinion does not in any way make you delusional and I think you already know that.

I get that you’ve copped some panning around here, so I understand that your initial thought may be that – however in this case it’s not correct.

I know you have a high opinion of Fred, and I respect that – I do too – I’m just not sure he should get another 3 years at a high price from the Bills – myself I believe he has 2012 and maybe 2013 left in him. Perhaps it’s the business owner in me, but I’m not a believer in paying people for premium performance once they’ve declined past that. I’m also not a heartless price – he has performed well and deserves a raise – just my opinion limits that raise to a 2 year deal max.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

alright man.

no worries.

I do have a high opinion. I will note though, that forced to choose: I say Spiller.

I agree that he might not warrant 3 years at a “high price” (of course, everyone’s standard is different, so without a number, this is relatively useless) but I think that considering his production, we can justify a nice guarantee, to help offset where he feels ‘wronged’ and then enough to keep his services to be a backup after this season, for a season. I don’t think that is illogical. A three year deal, still includes this year, since he is under contract anyway.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:48 AM EST up reply actions  

for me

it’s 2 years, 8 million with a chunk guaranteed – maybe I’m a mean cynical prick though :-)

To me that’s a good deal for him, sets him up, rewards him for this past season and all is square.

In my opinion he has only had 2011 as eilte – before that he was purely"serviceable" and his stats agree with me there at the very least.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:55 AM EST up reply actions  

i said 3 years, (this year included)

10 million, about 8 guaranteed. So… i get him an extra year, for about the same cost, unless we cut him on the decline. so we aren’t far off from each other, really.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 2:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I'm for 2 years (including this year) at 6 to 8 million total.

8 was my max marker.

I guess our contract parameters are similar, just our view of where he’ll be performance wise in 2 years varies is all.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 10:47 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

spiller looks good – tough to remove Fred though – also hard to pay him top dollar when there is a younger equal.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:55 AM EST up reply actions  

so you pay them the same basically,

for a few years, knowing that if fred is the backup after this season (or during if that has to be the case) then you didn’t do him wrong, and you cut him and save the salary, give him a bonus that compensates for last year and this year, and go with CJ, and White/somebody (choice, hall.. idk)

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 2:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I think

that 7 years of pro football hits is similar to 7 years of NFL hits regardless on the overall level yes.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

but those other leagues aren't pro

Not by most people’s standards. Thus the significantly lower viewership.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

in fact, i think even THEY consider themselves semi-pro.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

You're confusing overall league talent

with wear and tear on a ball carriers body from the hits he takes.

If you have no blocking you’re going to get whacked and hurt at any level.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

but if you are carrying 10% of the time by comparison

then, there are simply a much smaller amount of big hits. Even if they got hit 10x as hard, it doesn’t equal out, in my eyes.

Agree to disagree I guess. I think that playing in the NFL is CLEARLY better competition, than any of those other leagues.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Even if they got hit 10x as hard

which they aren’t.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah I can agree to disagree

and I know a lot of people don’t share my view and think the NFL delivers more wear and tear than other leagues.

Happy to not agree – especially since I’m now getting a tantrum from a 2 year old – and no I don’t mean you, I really mean my youngest boy here at home :-) Not sure he agrees a rumblings debate is as important as taking his sisters toys lol

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

plenty share your view

and dispute mine. so i am in no way saying you aren’t valid.

lol. no worries.

i think the matter is up for so much debate, simply due to his uncharacteristic path.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions  

he is indeed in a sort of unique position

which entitles many to think he will be the exception to the ageing RB rule. I don’t believe he will be, but that in no way ensures that I’m right.

BTW – my 2YO boy has gotten over pinching his sisters toy keys, so all is well in the world again LOL

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions  

i hear ya.

i respect that, i really really do. neither of us, or really anyone knows. It is a total gut feeling. I am not the least bit worried anyway, in general w the RBs… if you read my “diggity” on those guys… I am not too worried in general.

Glad to hear they are not making things more hectic for ya. : )

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:50 AM EST up reply actions  

even if we compare just straight up

Priest had 1780 carries, with 2 years @0, and his last year was 46.

Fred only has 817. That means he needs a TON (or well, half a ton. ; ) ) of carries in the other leagues, that he just didn’t have.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The arena league season was only 9 games. NFL Europe, 10 games. First year w/ Buff, Fred played in only 8 games. That’s only 36 games in his first four seasons as a pro.

by JapanJohn on Feb 17, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Players who had at least 2 good years after turning 30:

Fred Taylor
Warrick Dunn
Ricky Watters
Thomas Jones
Tiki Barber
Herschel Walker
Emmitt Smith
Curtis Martin

…I could keep looking for more, but it feels like overkill. Can we please stop with the “cut the best player” argument now?

@sawyervanhorn

by Sawyer in Boston on Feb 17, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions   4 recs

Curtis Martin was a beast even late in his career. Warrick Dunn is the player I most match Jackson up with. Though lately he reminds me of a Tiki-type player (without the fumbles).

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Warrick Dunn

Used to get about 170 carries a year though – ie 10 – 12 a game. He had a lot less wear and tear on him for sure. Also, he was hardly elite at that time – serviceable, useful sure, but not elite and not worthy of a large money extension.

Martin was likely the one true exception that I agree with on that whole list from Sawyer. The numbers of many on his list were decent to good – but far from elite.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I completely agree. It is mind boggling that some Bills fans want to cut Fred Jackson, simply because he is 30 years old. Fred Jackson is one of the few elite players on this team (Kyle Williams being another, with Dareus, Spiller and possibly Stevie Johnson joining the “elite” level). The Bills need more “elite” players on this team and not get rid of the very few that they have.

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s sort of like saying Sophia Vargara isn’t more desireable than (insert starlet name here) simply because he’s pushing 40.

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

“she’s”

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

One person said cut. I want to let him play out his contract and not give him gobs of money.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

So.. Jackson just had one. He’s signed for another which would be two. How many had three? That’s the answer to not extending him.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Here’s a hypothetical question. If Jackson puts up the same kind of MVP type numbers again in 2012, and plays in all 16 games, are you still going to say Jackson shouldn’t get an extension?

by steve b. on Feb 17, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

and here's one for you

If Fred runs for 500 yards, misses 4 games and eventually gets less carries than Spiller – would you still say he should get an extension ?

I realise it’s a silly hypothetical, but it’s the same as yours in reality. Both are just as likely scenarios.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes. Because I don’t think he can continue it into a new contract that will require me to pay him $8 million a season and a huge signing bonus. Ask the Seahawks how their extension of Shaun Alexander went after his MVP season. They cut him two years after giving him an 8 year deal.

Read this article. Tons of people questions giving a 30-year-old RB a huge deal and they were right.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

3 More Hall of Famers in addition to Allen

Franco Harris
John Riggins (Set NFL Record for TD’s at age 34)
Walter Payton

Plus, I’m pretty sure Barry Sanders and James Brown had more good years in them if they didn’t suddenly retire.

I vote to sign Jackson for 3 years (2 more plus next)

by wallyvoodoo on Feb 17, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand where you are going but...

Let’s look at the age of the players you mentioned in terms of their last 1000 yard season:

Fred Taylor- 31
Warrick Dunn- 31
Ricky Watters- 31
Thomas Jones- 31
Tiki Barber- 31
Herschel Walker- 30
Emmitt Smith- 31
Curtis Martin- 31

That’s not to say that none of these folks had productive seasons after their last 1000 yard season, but they certainly weren’t elite after this. There are also a disquieting number of RBs who completely fell off a cliff after their best season, Martin and Watters among them. Fred is 31 this year. If your list allows me to make determination about Freddie, its that he has a great year this year, then falls off at best to be a part timer.

There's nothing an agnostic can't do if he doesn't know whether he believes in anything or not

by PozDispenser on Feb 17, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

how many years were they in the NFL?

that is relevant here too.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, more for all, for sure...

…and thats a good point. That being said, even if you don’t agree that NFL Europe/Arena League hits are the same as NFL hits (which I would agree they are not, but not as far off as we might assume), thats still a lot of tread on the tires. What might be more to the point, if my general impression of him is correct, he pushed himself physically just as hard in the Arena League as in the NFL. Its not just gameday hits we’re talking about. Its the stress you put on your body throughout the season.

I think to get an accurate comparison, we’d need folks who followed a similar road to Freddie, and compare them. The problem is finding that comparison group.

There's nothing an agnostic can't do if he doesn't know whether he believes in anything or not

by PozDispenser on Feb 17, 2012 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

for sure

he has still been running a lot of years. I wouldn’t argue that.

I think to get an accurate comparison, we’d need folks who followed a similar road to Freddie, and compare them. The problem is finding that comparison group.

basically exactly what I said above. he is so uncharacteristic… it is for that reason that “normal rules” don’t apply, for me.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 7:37 PM EST up reply actions  

The guarenteed is what matters. Give him a decent signing bonus a reward for past play. He is going to want some guarenteed so make next year guarenteed only. could also make the contract performance based. Keeps everyone happy easy to get out of but also lets him stay in buffalo in a back up role if he wants to stay.

"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus

by matthew62 on Feb 17, 2012 11:21 AM EST via Android app reply actions  

I would say two years guaranteed

Jackson performed at an extremely high level last year. There is no reason to think he won’t be a valuable asset for the Bills for the next two years, so it is reasonable (though not perfectly safe — nothing is ever perfectly safe) to give him two more years with a guaranteed high salary. Then base it on incentives after that.

by Macktruck on Feb 17, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

So lets sayb we give him a five year deal. The first two years are guarenteed at lets say six million. We can also give him a small signing bonus 4 million sounds fine. After the first two years the contract is incentive based ranging from 2 million to six million based on performance. So buffalo is only on hook for 12 million not so much that it hurts the team if he underperforms.

"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus

by matthew62 on Feb 17, 2012 12:03 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Yes Yes

That would be perfect. He would actually come away with $16 million guaranteed, including the bonus, but the bonus in effect would be to make up for previous years when he was clearly underpaid. Some people might say that would be a case of the team throwing away money, but I would disagree. It would show that the Bills are willing to reward extraordinary efforts and performances on a retroactive basis, which increases the incentive for players to overperform their contracts in the future (the key word is “extraordinary” — it has to be a VERY high degree of overperformance to trigger a retroactive bonus, but that certainly has been the case with Freddie).

by Macktruck on Feb 17, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

careful

If you do that with Freddy then how much would you have to pay Stevie to make up for his deal? He is the only player in franchise history with back to back 1000 yard seasons and was playing on a 7th round rookie contract…

I’m not saying I disagree with your sentiment, but it might set off some guys that feel they outperformed their contracts, too.

GET TO THE CHOPPA!!!

by hoosier3 on Feb 17, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Two diffrent positions and two diffrent circumstances. Stevie will be getter a bigger signing bonus. he will be paid more plus a contract that is not incentive based. Not to mention the larger amount of guarenteed money.

"This is a chance to shine some light on the city, They say it’s too cold. I’m going to bring some warmth to it." Marcell Dareus

by matthew62 on Feb 17, 2012 2:42 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Exactly. Stevie was on a rookie contract, while Fred is currently on a veteran deal that he was effectively forced to sign because the Bills held exclusive rights to him for the subsequent two years. He either signed it or missed two years of playing time. I should have specified that I was talking about veteran contracts only.

by Macktruck on Feb 17, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2012/02/no_performance-based_pay_for_g.html

No performance based incentives in contracts for 2011-12 season.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Feb 18, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2012/02/no_performance-based_pay_for_g.html

No performance based incentives in contracts for 2011-12 season.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Feb 18, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

If I’m not mistaken, it was money set aside to give to guys who played unexpectedly grossly over their contract. So, it wasn’t in their contract. I believe you can still write the incentives into the contract. I’m not an expert on what the article was talking about, but I think that is an NFLPA/NFL performance bonus (that wouldn’t count against the cap), not a team paid negotiated performance bonus (which would count against the cap).

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Based on the link below, I would say that my prior explanation is pretty close, so the Bills could sign him to an incentive laden deal.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d80f6bbfc/article/chargers-clary-earns-top-amount-in-performancebased-pay-system

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

In fairness to the Bills, Fred has already received $800,000 in bonuses during the first 3 years of his 4 year/7.5M deal.

by JapanJohn on Feb 17, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I say no for same reasons you stated. Give him two years at 5m each. If he wants more, say goodbye. I rather giveva fat contract to mario williams

"They’re a very special group of men. Cherish them, you will not see their like again."

by chaucer on Feb 17, 2012 11:23 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

For me, I wouldn't give him an extension

This is business. I do love Fred. He is a great Rb. Probably got shafted his whole career because he came from no where. Probably doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. The fact is he is old now. We spent and invested highly in C.J Spiller. We pay him good money to try to play WR and catch 60 yard bombs. That is not his game. We saw what Spiller can do. He needs to take over soon. I do like the idea of having both to keep their legs fresh but at the right price.

RB in this league to me is almost the most worthless position/investment. It is lower than punter to me. There are a lot of guys that can come into the league and run. Fred being one of them from nowhere. There are not a lot of great offensive lineman that make the holes for them. These people are the people to invest in. And of course pass rushers. We have seen if you pressure Brady, he can’t win. We need to save that money and invest in pass rushers and offensive lineman. Thats how you win football games. My belief is that the teams our built from the Lines. The patriots did it. The Broncos did it in the past. Look at Terrell Davis…looked like a superstar with that line. So did Travis Henry, Clinton Portis and Willis McGahee.

My point is simple. RB’s are not worth much. We have invested in one already. If Fred wants to stay with his contract fine, if not, I am fine with White, another person we invested in to back up CJ. If anything, give Fred a bonus and tell him to suck it up, its life, and its business.

by csc06258 on Feb 17, 2012 11:25 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Pay him a back-up RB contract

I don’t think Fred needs to be paid like a starter at this point. Because going into this season, I think Spiller needs to be the starter, with Fred being the change-of-pace, third down back. He blocks better, he plays the screen game fantastically, he runs draws well… but he’s 31. He’s not the future of this team, he’s the now, and frankly, the now is not winning the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think. Is that pessimistic? I don’t think so, I think its realistic… unless they make HUGE waves in FA and the draft and it looks like a playoff-bound team. THEN and only THEN do we sign him a short-term contract that is a little bigger.

by JjR in TO on Feb 17, 2012 11:44 AM EST reply actions  

How many players need to be extended for their young players to see that it’s a trend?

Well, it wouldn’t be much of a trend unless they continue doing it.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 11:48 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Are you kidding? Saying release him or trade…whatttt? Fred Jackson is an absolute beast, he was the Bills last year plain and simple. If we extend him (I’d like 2-3 years)…I think he will be the starter for another 2 years, he will pick up right after he left off this year. Say he starts to slow down because of his age, we have this up and coming beast named CJ who will split carries with him. With the talent that Fred has, running, catching, blocking…we need him on our team. Most teams use 2 backs anyway…old timers need to get paid to. Get him around for another couple of years.

by agage5 on Feb 17, 2012 11:59 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

I'd trade him before next season

Someone would give at least a 2nd right:? The guy was dominant last year.

The one hangup I have is that Chan clearly doesn’t believe Spiller can be an every down guy (see Chan abandoning very successful running game after 1st quarter of several games in which Spiller started). Now I disagree with him (especially with what I believe is a great interior line that almost anyone could run through), but if he’s not going to think Spiller can be that guy, trading Fred means we have to go out and get a 1b.

by the landriest on Feb 17, 2012 12:00 PM EST reply actions  

A 2nd would be a pipe dream

no team would give up a 2nd rounder For the reason stated in the OP.

Jackson should remain with the Bills and slowly turn the reigns over to CJ. CJ can still learn a lot from Jackson and Jackson can still be productive in the system.

Paranoids are not paranoid because they're paranoid, but because they keep putting themselves...deliberately into paranoid situations.

by christopher.j on Feb 17, 2012 12:07 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Actually, screw this

Chan needs to find a way to make the combination work. Don’t pay out the backside (at least not for more than 2 yrs, 3 at most) for Fred, but Chan is being paid to not be awful, so he should not be awful.

by the landriest on Feb 17, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

If Nix called anyone and asked them if they would give up a 2nd rounder for Freddie, I think they would laugh him out of the league. State four reasons why you think that he is worth a 2nd round pick.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

How many players need to be extended for their young players to see that it’s a trend?


All of the good ones worth keeping

by NHBillzFan on Feb 17, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

KEEP HIM

Fred Jackson stands for truth, justice, and the American way. I’ve been for him every day since he first landed on our planet with his #22 cape and felt the strength of our yellow sun. If we fail to resign him, our planet is doomed.

by Munchausen on Feb 17, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions   3 recs

Rec'd!

Luckily I wasn’t drinking milk at the time I read this post, or it would have gone out my nose!

"Teams that don't deserve to win.... usually don’t. Today is no exception." -- Mr Huge Pecs
"Nick Barnett is everywhere. He is behind you right now." -- Munchausen

by ChuckBuffInFlo on Feb 17, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

You have to be drinking milk for that to happen?

http://www.myspace.com/video/robert/cartman-39-s-milk/4377821
Milk comes out Eric Cartman’s nose. Go to the 45 second mark.

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I wonder

I wonder if the Freddy/CJ combo will work. Obviously Gailey is being paid good money to make it work. Still, we didn’t see CJ’s good stuff until Freddy went down. Can either of these guys be a 50%-of-the-time back? I don’t pretend to know a lot about this game, but I’d hate to see either one of these guys diminished because they’re not touching the ball enough. Anyway, maybe it’s worry for nothing and they’ll be just fine. I’d say extend him for an additional year.

by Fatso McGraw on Feb 17, 2012 12:20 PM EST reply actions  

Extend, but only 2-3 years at mid range RB money

This just leads me back to the thought that the Bills should play both backs equally next year, maybe on the field at the same time. It would extend Freddy’s career making him effective for longer. With that being said, I say extend his contract, but pay him like a back that is splitting time. He shouldn’t get top RB money based on his age and expected decline in performance. Don’t pay a player based on what they have done in the past. That is rediculous. Pay them on how well you think they will play during the new contract.

by Bills Backer Bob on Feb 17, 2012 12:31 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

How can you say that about Freddy

I’m in the keep him camp. The man has been one of my favorite Bills since I saw him do a front flip touchdown in preseason back when our starters were Travis Henry and the A-train ( trying to remember what year it was so long ago now). He has earned the right to get extended for three years and given a good signing bonus based on his past performance alone. The guy has not been beat up nearly as much as other running backs his age and should have at least threee good years left in the tank and worst case scenario he goes down and he helps coach up CJ, I want him to be a Bill for life and he has earned it.

by SClemy on Feb 17, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions  

The man has been one of my favorite Bills since I saw him do a front flip touchdown in preseason back when our starters were Travis Henry and the A-train ( trying to remember what year it was so long ago now). He has earned the right to get extended for three years and given a good signing bonus based on his past performance alone.

You sound like you’re extending him with your heart and not your head. His contract is for what he will be doing over the next three years.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Load up the first year of the deal, then have it reduce over the next couple with performance incentives to boost the deal. He’s aging. It rewards him for what he has done, and then lessens the risk of lower production due to his age as he continues to get older. Allows him to transition to a backup role naturally. Fred seems like the kind of guy who will know when it’s time to step aside and let CJ take over, which isn’t just yet.

by NDbuffalo on Feb 17, 2012 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2012/02/no_performance-based_pay_for_g.html

No performance based incentives in contracts for 2011-12 season.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Feb 18, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

So my reply above.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s nice. 2011-12 season is over. New league starting soon. And you can have performance insentives in the coming seasons. This article is irrelevant if they sign a new contract.

by NDbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 6:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

OOPS. Typo 2012-13 season.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Feb 18, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I did post in too much haste. The article actually does not refer to incentives in the way people are suggesting so disregard my replies per this matter.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Feb 18, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

That Picture Makes Me Sad

Poor Fred.

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

Just as importantly, coaches need to convince him that he’s not an every down back. To get three or four good years, Jackson is going to have to be used judiciously as a big play/yardage specialist. There might be games he gets five touches or less No complaining that another back (like Spiller) is the starter. Football is a TEAM game, gotta do what’s best for the team over the whole season.

by Rick A on Feb 17, 2012 12:46 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah that isn’t going to fly. Do you think that Fred is stupid? Everyone knows that they were leaning very heavily on him this past season. Plus those aren’t very good business practices. If they were to do that, I can assure you that every player in the NFL would take notice—-and not in a good way.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Everyone knows that they were leaning very heavily on him this past season.

Leaning on him for half the season. It wasn’t just a broken leg, his left hand or wrist was badly hurt too, which I believe caused the dropped passes and fumbles in the games leading up to the leg injury. Plus who knows how many other bumps and bruises, he took a beating last year. He does the Bills no good on IR.

by Rick A on Feb 17, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

…his left hand or wrist was badly hurt too,…

This is news to me. Can you give me a link?

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

No link

But you could see it clearly dangling as he left the field after a number of plays. Like Fitz’s broken ribs, they won’t say anything about it, but you can tell by the way they play.

by Rick A on Feb 17, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

So you are speculating right?

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Finally

Fred has been hurt every season. However I hope he gets a two year extension after his physical cause the man is great and obviously Johnny White ain’t the answer. Just follow the Giants formula if we are going to get past the Pats to the playoffs cause the trophy is the goal….remember!

by rexachss on Feb 17, 2012 2:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Finally

Fred has been hurt every season.

Are you sure about that?

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

So let me get this straight you want Jackson who is a back that grinds out yards to be our home run threat and Spiller our speed back who really cant run up the middle to be our every down back. Jackson has less mileage on him than most backs do at this point in his career. He has a few good years left in him. Spiller should the big yardage specialist because that is really all he is good for. I have never been a Spiller like most Bills fans have been until the end of last year. Spiller will never be a feature back in my opinion. He will be a good complimentary back but he cant carry the load every game. Also what was the Bills record when Jackson was starting vs Spiller starting again?

by FLBill on Feb 17, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

2 year extension

I don’t disagree with your points, but many successful teams show you that you need more than one back to be successful. The Ginats were a prime example with Bradshaw and Jacobs. The Saints use multiple backs effectively, as have other teams in the past including the Dolphins (Brown and Williams) the Jets (Jones, Tomlinson, Greene), etc. Teams need 2 effective backs, and the Bills have that.

by MarinoTheBill on Feb 17, 2012 12:51 PM EST reply actions  

I smell another 4th round draft pick headed buffalos way….followed by reports that a different team would have given at least a 3rd.

I wasn't sure I was going to like the white helmets but seeing them in the practice footage, I've got to say that I love the look.

by Ron From NM on Feb 17, 2012 12:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions   2 recs

Isn't a 4th round pick the rate for RB's though?

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 17, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there any evidence whatsoever...

supporting rumors about a Fred Jackson trade? In the news? On the Internet? From the mouth of the janitor that empties Buddy’s garbage can?

As far as I know all this trade Fred Jackson talk pure invention from a discontented Bills fan base.

I understand that many of you would run OBD differently if you were given the reigns. You’re entitled to your opinions, and if you’d trade Fred Jackson, then you’d trade Fred Jackson. I’ll never understand how the arguments against Fred outweigh the arguments for Fred, and none of you will ever convince me.

But rest assured, prior to the 2012 NFL season, Fred Jackson will have signed an extension with the Buffalo Bills. All you trade Fred Jackson advocates are going to be sorely disappointed, and I’m going to be thrilled. Because, like it or not, there is simply no way the Buffalo Bills are going to trade Fred Jackson. It’s not happening. Don’t hold your breath.

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 1:00 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Right. And for the record, that wasn’t in direct response to your post, MRW. I understand that your position is not to trade Fred, but to simply let Fred play out his contract without extending him. I disagree with doing that, as well.

And, like I said above, Fred Jackson will sign an extension with the Buffalo Bills whether people like it or not. Buddy says it’s going to happen, and I believe it will.

"The Amish Rifle is your god now." - Muzza34

by BuffaloOwdaTwnr on Feb 17, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

A 3 year extention. Based on production.

Base his pay on production. Like if he hits 1000 yards he gets a $1Million bonus, 1,250 a $1.5million bonus ect. Same with receptions and TD’s. It would make sure we get 110% out of him and if we didn’t, we’d be covered. The guy deserves some money, he is our best player. I know he is getting older, but he has way less mileage on his body than others his age, he hasn’t had as much NFL level body damage as most. Pay the man!

by ejtowne on Feb 17, 2012 1:05 PM EST reply actions  

2-3 Year deal

Give Fred his due for the first 2years and make the 3rd guaranteed only if available to play, if injured then (not).

Fred is a young 31 and he’s such a hard worker and positive influence in the locker room that giving him a respectful 3 year extension guaranteed only if he’s able to play in his 3rd year would be probably acceptable on his part. Because of his age, I doubt he is expecting to be paid in the same stratosphere as Johnson, besides his contract was absurd and stupid, he wasn’t worth that kind of money anyways.

Make Fred a very fair offer for 3years which protects the club in the 3rd year and if he doesn’t want it, then trade him and move on. Nix gave him his word and he should honor it. Only if Fred is unreasonable should we consider trading him.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Feb 17, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

I think this makes a lot of sense

There's nothing an agnostic can't do if he doesn't know whether he believes in anything or not

by PozDispenser on Feb 17, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Tks.

I’d like to keep the guy and I hope his expectations are reasonable. Another reason why he might be traded would be if he expects to be the primary back with the bulk of the carries. In an interview he alluded to the fact that he expects to have the same role next year, which to me sounds like he’s not being realistic about the situation. He can have at least 3 more years if he splits the carries with Spiller, so hopefully he realizes that finishing his career in Buffalo could be a great thing.

Rebuilding a team properly takes time and patience

by keysh67 on Feb 17, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

He's not going to cost nearly as much as Chris Johnson.

So the answer is yes, resign him. It is not going to cost anywhere near 55 million dollars, or anywhere near CJ’s guaranteed $.

Also this: Nix has stated that the team will renegotiate his deal. So between this and signing Mario Williams, can we stop discussing things that clearly are not going to happen?

@sawyervanhorn

by Sawyer in Boston on Feb 17, 2012 1:19 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Only if Fred is unreasonable should we consider trading him.

ELF (Everyone loves Fred) me included. If he didn’t get hurt last year, an extension would already have been done – but that’s not how life works. I like a 2 yr guarantee at 5 mil a year, plus some production bonuses and a third year guarantee at 3-4 mil if he’s still healthy and reports to training camp. I do agree that Fred probably sets back CJ’s development, but Fred is STILL the best overall back on our team and we need two effective RBs. If we let him walk and CJ gets hurt and we’re left with Choice, then I don’t like that “choice”

by AlwaysaBillinPhilly on Feb 17, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

Is it possible to give him a deal with $4.5 million in base salary and maybe $1,000,000 for breaking 1,000 yards, $500,000 for 1,500 AP yards, $500,000 for 1,750 AP yards, and $500,000 for getting 5 TD and an additional $500,000 for 8 TD.

With something like this, he would make less than Chris Johnson, but get a raise from his current base salary, and he could get rewarded for reasonable play. If he doesn’t get those numbers, then he couldn’t complain.

Just an idea. Don’t know if it is possible.

by JMP on Feb 17, 2012 1:24 PM EST reply actions  

Yes. Incentive-laden contracts are all over the place.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that is the way for them to go with Steve, as well as Chandler.

I don’t know how I feel about it for Fred; I am of the opinion that he already outplayed his extension.

Chandler has no previous production, and we can’t really guarantee, a single thing about him. I don’t see how we can pay him big money, to maybe not be worth big money. Incentive based contract seems a good solution.

Steve has one knock for certain: he lacks maturity, and probably some focus. (at least) So it seems logical, you hold him to a certain standard of conduct (they think this is already resolved) and then you let him do his thing, and the more he does, the more he gets, and we are protected if he is, for example.. suspended. Not that I would expect that really, but hey, it’s the “No Fun League”… so you never know. Plus if he has a HUGE season or something, then he gets more money. That seems fair. Escalators are the way to go, when there are question marks. I am still optimistic. It is far from the ‘final hour’ but they should be working at this point, and seem to be.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 12:59 AM EST up reply actions  

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2012/02/no_performance-based_pay_for_g.html

No performance based incentives in contracts for 2011-12 season.

.

When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.

by Buffalo for Eternity on Feb 18, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Ditto.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 18, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I personally hate incentive-laden contracts. I imagine the athlete over on the sidelines calculating his salary instead of thinking about the game.

by JapanJohn on Feb 17, 2012 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

The main question is does freddy have the same wear and tear of all the running backs listed in this article? Its a tough call but if there is any guy that deserves a solid contract its Fred. I want to give him the extension whether it works out or not. I might say something like this once every 20 years. He payed his dues. Show Him the MONEY!!!

by BillsSabres1 on Feb 17, 2012 1:34 PM EST reply actions  

Why can't we give him

2 more years at 4 million a year, that doubles his salary for outplaying his last contract and doesn’t leave us on the hook for too much cash.

I’s there one person here who wouldn’t be happy if their salary was doubled?

I didn’t think so, I’d be thrilled to get a raise that doubled my pay.

"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight

by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 17, 2012 1:47 PM EST reply actions  

You also have to remember that he has to agree to that. Both sides have to agree to it for it to be a contract. We really don’t know what he is looking for.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

If my salary were doubled. I’d scream like a little kid as a ran up and down the halls.

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

This

Maybe it’s just the fan in me, but I think Fred is a very special player that would be worth keeping around a few more years at a fair price.

And, considering everything he has overcome and the unorthodox manner in which he found his way to the NFL, I think history has shown not to count him out and I wouldn’t change that just because he’s 31.

Regarding the OP, why speculate on his future production based on which HoFers got a pro-bowl selection after thirty? Fred Jackson is probably not a future HoFer, and he’s never been to a pro-bowl, anyway. Fred’s just Fred, and his destiny is his own. Go Bills!

by brooklynbills on Feb 17, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you are spot on

2 years at 3 – 4 million a year. A nice raise without hurting us when his production falls this year or next (Not if, but when)

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 17, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

But why would Fred sign that when his production has clearly been worth more than that?

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

He may not

and if he doesn’t then in my opinion he can play out his last year and roll the dice – I think he’d be unwise to do so however and I’m not uncertain that you don’t agree.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:48 AM EST up reply actions  

But what if your still not getting paid as much as your peers that you outperform at you job? Its not a matter of the number itself, but of what you are worth.

by BillsfanDan on Feb 18, 2012 7:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I think creativity is needed here.

Give him a 3 or 4 year extension with the first 2 years top loaded. The second 2 years would be say 1 mil per year, no biggie either way. That way, if he is still good, he gets paid, if he slows down, u can trade him and his reasonable salary to another team looking for the missing piece to their roster that won’t hurt them salary cap wise. Win win. He gets his big pay day from us and he is cap friendly the last 2 years.

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 17, 2012 2:00 PM EST reply actions  

one last comment

There is no trade value for fast Freddie …hes great…but no NFL team would do it trust me!

by rexachss on Feb 17, 2012 2:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Disagree. If a team is going to shower Peyton Manning with riches after 4 very serious neck surgeries, teams in the NFL would value Fred Jackson.

"Son. People can see you!"

by TheAfghanTwilight on Feb 17, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Peyton was an elite QB when he was healthy and he did it for quite a few years. I think Peyton’s value is waaaay more than Fred’s if he is healthy. And I don’t think teams are going to shower Peyton with riches unless they are sure that he is healthy and can play like he did when he was healthy.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Just out of curiosity, why would we trust you on that? It doesn’t really make any sense.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

There is no trade value for fast Freddie

Disagree. On the Pats, Freddie could be used in the Kevin Faulk role and kill us for the next 5 years.

by JapanJohn on Feb 17, 2012 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

3 years... 10 million... 7 in guarantees.

I ain’t skerrred.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

I’d be fine with that deal. He’s probably going to be asking for more, but that seems reasonable to me.

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Me too

i don’t know that he will GET more than that… especially if he has to hold out this year, thus being even older (this is SUCH a turnoff after all) when he hits free agency next year. But at the same time, if I were Fred I am not accepting less than 3 per year, since he already has been kinda “low balled” based off his production, on this past contract.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

he already has been kinda "low balled" based off his production

Disagree. His new contract started in 2009. Therefore, he signed it coming off his 2008 season: 167 touches/ 888 yards. IMO his present contract fits those numbers perfectly. He may be outperforming his present contract, but I don’t see how he was low-balled.

by JapanJohn on Feb 17, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

okay

the better way to phrase is he has outplayed his current contract. That implies that he is maybe “owed” back compensation, for exceeding expectations. Some don’t agree. that is cool. I wasn’t saying the Bills short changed him; I agree that the contract was fair at the time. His play has made it unfair, and I expect that since he sees it that way, the FO recognizes he sees it that way, and are likely to factor that in, if their intention is re-signing him, as they claim.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:01 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

3 years, 10.3453 million with 3.44678 in guarantees, maybe willing to go to 10.4 million. Anyone else?

by agage5 on Feb 17, 2012 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

probably going to need more guaranteed

to make up for being underpaid the last 2 years. Keep in mind, that the contract you propose, is hardly a pay increase, let alone something he is going to accept. the guaranteed money is going to be for the last 2 years, and this year, at very least. At least that is what I think. He is going to make over 2, just keeping the current contract. He doesn’t seem too satisfied with that prospect, so to imagine that just going to 1-2 more million/year (most of which isn’t even guaranteed), isn’t going to cut it.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I just made all of this up I have no idea what I’m talking about, I dont know how much the man should get paid…my point is who cares, it not my money I have no idea what is a good contract for him…All i know is that Freddy is a beast we need him on our team. Do what it takes people.

by agage5 on Feb 17, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

good deal.

I guesstimated above as well… and i don’t really know ANYONE who can really appropriately gauge his value. Hence the WIDE range of contract ideas, trade worth, years to extend… etc etc etc.

I do agree totally though. Pay him whatever. He has a ton of value TO US, no matter what. He has already proven that and so he deserves a bump from his past performance, and a little cushion for his future as well. We HAVE the money, we have to SPEND the money, and he DESERVES the money. Where is the issue, right? : )

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

10,345,300 vs 10,400,000 could ruin the franchise…I know exactly how much we have in the bank…trust me, not worth going much higher.

by agage5 on Feb 17, 2012 3:39 PM EST reply actions  

Come on pay the man

With Jackson and Spiller in the backfield splitting carries gives us a two backs that compliment each other very well. I Think Jackson deserves a good extension. He has little mileage for a 30 year old and with him on the roster he can mentor Spiller. Also since him and Spiller will be splinting carries it will help preserve Spillers legs for the future so maybe he can still play well when he is pushing 30.

by FLBill on Feb 17, 2012 3:44 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Fred is unique

You can’t use the same “well, he’s just gonna suck soon since he’s over 30 now”

It’s just plain ignorant.

by KileyJ on Feb 17, 2012 4:11 PM EST reply actions  

i concur.

and……….. rec’d. just because he happens to be the exception, AND on OUR team… I don’t see why it is such a stretch to pay an exceptional player, who is arguably your very best player, because he is ‘too old’. Plenty of exceptions to age exist. I don’t get this line of thinking at all (as you probably know, if you have read my other posts.)

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

You can't say he's the exception

Until he actually…..you know PROVES he is the exception. That’s why this is such a catch 22 because it’s a high risk high reward type of deal to extend him.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 17, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

he has demonstrated how he was an exception just by how he got into the league.

so by definition, an exception… is an exception.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 17, 2012 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Exception

Any RB that can run very well behind our O/L needs a raise! Sounds fair.

Don't Worry, Be Happy!

by buffalobacker on Feb 17, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn’t say that, it isn’t what I mean.

CJ could be getting OVERPAID, since he has played, less than half a season in 2 years. As a first round selection, he has a comparable salary to Fred, with far less production. (this is probably some of Fred’s leverage, you must realize i am sure)

As a veteran, in the short time he was under contract, off waiver, Choice was probably making more than White. They both contributed very little on game day. But they could be construed maybe as overpaid based on their production (White less obviously… he is a rookie on a rookie deal) I suppose.

I never said they all deserve raises. I said I believe Fred has earned a raise. Let the FO decide what the line deserves. Pears was signed to more than Fred is making. I am willing to bet that Levitre and Wood make more. Hairston is a rookie on a rookie deal, Bell is a FA, and I don’t know what Rinehart and Urbik make, but maybe they do deserve raises too. Those things are all irrelevant to Fred’s contract.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions  

i mean, if your coworker does a good job, do YOU deserve a raise?

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not debating what the definition of an exception is

Im talking about Fred Jackson being an exception to the over 30 rule and simply put nobody knows but history certainly isn’t on his side.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 17, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

he is an exception

because unlike most that play in the NFL for more than 5 years, as RBs, they have played 8-11 years by their 30’s. He has played 5. So he has half the time in the league, and he didn’t have his time right after college. This is not the norm. That makes it an exception. That means he is an exception. That is all I am saying, and all that i said.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Wrong

I never said he wasn’t AN exception all I said was that in regards to this particular case or “rule” about Rbs over the age of 30 you cannot say he is already an exception. Just because he wasn’t in the NFL at 22 or 23 years old doesn’t mean he was just sitting on a couch resting up. As many others have pointed out he has played in various leagues before coming to the NFL. He also now has injury concerns.

Kurt warner was an exception as well that didn’t mean he could keep throwing a football until he was 50 just because he got a late start?

Hell my uncles in his 40s and was a great rb in high school (or so I’m told) but that doesn’t mean he can just run out there and be just as good because he doesn’t have the same “mileage” as other running backs.

I’m not saying Fred can’t be an exception, I’m just saying its highly unlikely given the situation. But for you to say he already is an exception to the over 30 rule is completely false that’s all. You can’t prove he is just like I can’t prove he isn’t.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 18, 2012 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

i am wrong

if your version of “agree to disagree” = you are right; I am wrong.

You can’t prove he is just like I can’t prove he isn’t.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Re-read again

My response was in reference to your 1st reply to the poster. You said Fred Jackson is THE exception to the rule. I said that statement is false because you can’t prove it true. Therefore yes you are wrong that statement is false. Whether he CAN be the exception to the rule we will just have to agree to disagree.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 18, 2012 1:47 AM EST up reply actions  

cool

I’m done with this now. I think we understand each other. If not… we probably won’t.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess I am ignorant while citing previous examples from the last ten years. :-)

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

didn’t you know that :-)

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:49 AM EST up reply actions  

WOW

No offense, but this is the last pool of candidates I would dip into if I was looking for someone to manage my business.

Too much heart and not enough head.

As Human Beings, though, you guys are all right.

:)

I had a drink the other day
Opinions were like kittens
I was giving them away
-Modest Mouse

by oompaloompa on Feb 17, 2012 4:27 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

que scene from North-Dallas Forty

“everything I call it a business you call it a game; whenever I say it’s a just a game you call it a business”

Paranoids are not paranoid because they're paranoid, but because they keep putting themselves...deliberately into paranoid situations.

by christopher.j on Feb 17, 2012 5:10 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Haha. I just realized what your icon really is. Problems. LOL. Hopefully that does fully describe Dareus for years to come. On another note, I do think that the Bills have to be careful how they resolve this contract dispute with Fred. They said that they will pay players that perform. Fred, in my opinion, really did outperform his contract and he has been a steady and improving player since he started playing for the Bills. I think that if they handle it well, they can actually attract players to the franchise. However, if they handle this wrong and low-ball him, that it may actually anger some of the players on the team and I believe other players in the league are going to see it and definitely remember it.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Fred X is the ultimate "Moneyball" vs. "gut" kind of decision

If you looked at the pool of 30+ year old productive RBs that had 320+ carries per year over the past 3-4 years and then looked at their stats over the next few years, you’d reach one statistical conclusion = not worth a big extension. Obviously it gets interesting when you factor in both Fred’s relatively light work load in the past but have to factor his injury last year. A 25 yr old w/ a broken leg recovers better than a 30 year old. That said, 10 mil guranteed over two years, with a third year roster bonus plus some incentives

by AlwaysaBillinPhilly on Feb 17, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Fred X is the ultimate “Moneyball” vs. “gut” kind of decision

And therein lies the debate.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Its hard to imagine a 2012 BILLS team without SJ13 AND FJ22. YIKES!

I have a feeling that Stevie Johnson wont want to be back unless Fred is signed to a multi year deal. My gut also tells me Freddy wont report to mini camp if something new isnt done… “As the World Turns, These are the Days of Our Lives”. NFL Football = Soap Opera for Men. hahahahaha!

by phalupah on Feb 17, 2012 5:32 PM EST reply actions  

fred jackson deserves a 2-3 year incentive laiden contract

the end

Change is inevitable; progress is optional. - Buffalo Bills Mantra

by silverstreak3k on Feb 17, 2012 7:15 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

He may walk, but I don’t think you should sign any players beyond age 32 if you can help it (and especially not running backs).

Also, is anyone else surprised that CJ2K makes less than 10mil/year? I knew he held out for a deal and all, but Kobe makes like 30mil/year (obviously apples to oranges, but it seems like so little for a superstar).

"We have an elite pass rushing LB who likes to conserve electricity." -- Munchausen

by crooked5 on Feb 17, 2012 7:35 PM EST reply actions  

I guess Kobe makes like 15mil/year now :x

"We have an elite pass rushing LB who likes to conserve electricity." -- Munchausen

by crooked5 on Feb 17, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions  

He may walk, but I don’t think you should sign any players beyond age 32 if you can help it (and especially not running backs).

He isn’t 32. He will be 31.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

He’ll be 32 at the end of his contract though, won’t he?

"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.

by stetzwebs on Feb 17, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know. But I don’t think that is what crooked was saying. The plan was to get a deal done before the season starts. Hence he would be at most 31.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I was referring more to the fact that he would be over 32 by the time the contract ends.

"We have an elite pass rushing LB who likes to conserve electricity." -- Munchausen

by crooked5 on Feb 19, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Another question: Is Fred Jackson the running back on the Super Bowl winning Buffalo Bills? If he’s not, he’s probably not worth re-signing.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 17, 2012 8:33 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Then who IS worth re-signing

if that’s part of the criteria? What kind of criteria is that anyhow? Stevie Johnson isn’t likely a WR on the SB winning Bills, but that doesn’t make it not worth re-signing him.

~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."

by Kurupt on Feb 18, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions  

to be fair

If Steve gets 6 years he’s more likely then Fred is in 1 or 2 years.

I get your point that we may not be there for many years – however surely the younger stallions are a higher priority than the older ones ?

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:50 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah.

we should sign 43 new guys this offseason…. ; )

i kid, but seriously… that logic is kinda questionable.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:51 AM EST up reply actions  

K, you know if Stevie is on the team for five more years he could be. Do you think Fred will be a big time contributor when the Bills are good enough to be a Super Bowl team?

by MattRichWarren on Feb 18, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

That picture is crazy

He walks off the field with a broken leg. Puts some ice on it. and just chills on the sideline.

Does that make any sense?

With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.

by tomcs on Feb 17, 2012 8:44 PM EST reply actions  

It was a broken Fibula. It isn’t like he broke his Tibia. If he did, I don’t think he would have been standing up.

by AP22 on Feb 17, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

yea I know

but still. If I break a bone in my leg I don’t think I’m walking around too much.

With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.

by tomcs on Feb 17, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

skirt :-)

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 1:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Travis Henry

Dont forget Travis Henry had a broken leg, broken ribs and a hip pointer and STILL PLAYED. Not only did he play, but he dominated.

by phalupah on Feb 18, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

He didn't exactly dominate

I remember that next game – he only ran for 20 yards. He did however score 2 x TDs though.

The Buffalo Bills - Drafting big and nasty men since 2011.

by Will G on Feb 18, 2012 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

its not a weight bearing bone, so standing on it is not going to seriously cause a great deal more pain than it already is. That being said, I wouldn’t have someone with a broken leg just standing around either. Tough guy.

And I dont think they knew it was broken after the game anyway if not the next day if I remember correctly

by BillsfanDan on Feb 18, 2012 8:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Extend the man

The Freddy chants during the games said it all. Even sitting at home that was an amazing thing to see/hear. Had to be awesome in the stadium. As much as I like seeing C.J. do his thing Freddy needs to be on this team.

Harooo

by Robot Nixon on Feb 17, 2012 10:35 PM EST reply actions  

This is a bit crazy

Clearly a lot of Bills fans are big Fred Jackson fans and would hate to see him walk or get traded. That being said the NFL is a business and from a business standpoint it doesn’t make sense to extend him past his current contract.

The Yankees went through this very same problem a year ago with Derek jeter and I see both situations eerily similar. Does past production mean a player should get a big time contract extension in the future? Both are huge fan favorites that people feel very strongly about. The difference is the Yankees have a lot deeper pockets, a much larger market, and don’t have to worry about a salary cap.

I also question some people on how much sense does it make. When we left Geoff hangartner go fans justified it by saying well you can’t be paying a backup (hang) more than your starter (wood). So why can’t that same logic be applied here? There’s no way fred Jackson will be the teams #1 rb beyond the next season (unless something monumental was to happen) otherwise the spiller pick will have been a complete waste. Why take a rb in round 1 pick 9 to backup a guy who’s over 30 and just received an extension. If you watch gaileys offense there is no way he changes it to give both backs equal carries and besides that how many teams run the ball 30-50 times a game? The NFL is a passing league and gailey is a pass first coach it just doesn’t add up.

People are still upset over Chris kelsays contract and the lack of production to justify it. How many years will go by before people complain about Fred making $5-7 million a year and seeing his numbers continue to go down?

The question is asking you to think with your head and not with your heart.

So should the bills extend Fred Jackson? No. Will they? Most likely given Nix’s latest comments.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 17, 2012 11:32 PM EST reply actions  

Even if you don’t want to “extend” his contract, they can just as easily rip it up and agree to a new one that is fair to him and is for the same length of time. However, the down side is that Fred does keep playing well and well…..your out of luck and he leaves. I would rather pay him what he is worth for two or three years.

by AP22 on Feb 18, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Right

But what business sense does that make? The NFL is a business and they could just as well say we offered you a contract before, you signed it and we’d like for you to honor it. This is why I think it’s smarter for the team to trade him away for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, because we have a young rb who’s been waiting to break out and justify his picking, Fred’s value will never be higher, and then it’s somebody else’s problem to sign him to an extension. I really like Fred Jackson and think his story is a really great one, but unfortunately in this situation he’s at the disadvantage.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 18, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I would like to make two points.

#1.) Even you pointed to his age. Do you think that a single front office that would be interested in him wouldn’t do the same thing? I do not think that you are going to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him. If you disagree, please give your reasons why he is worth that much to someone else?

#2.) Who should play? The person that is playing better or the person that was picked higher?

by AP22 on Feb 18, 2012 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Disagree with both of those

There are a few teams that would like to have the services of fred I believe. Any # of teams that are playoff bound or on the cusp could use him. If the bears were to lose forte do you think they wouldn’t want him? How about the lions? Other teams that I think would be interested: jets and pats (but I highly doubt we trade him within the division but both are options), browns (if they let Hollis walk and decide to draft griffin could definitely pursue him, bengals, colts may pursue him of they draft luck and trade manning to help ease the pressure off of luck and provide some excitement within the fan base, texans (if they lose foster which I doubt if anything Mario will be the one leaving), broncos (if McGahee isn’t resigned) redskins could make a push, the packers could make a move to help balance out their offense.

Now will all those teams offer us a 2nd or 3rd probably not. Some may though. If I was GM however I would stand firm and say that I wouldn’t accept anything less than a 3rd. If nobody bites o well then he remains a bill (or at least until an injury occurs to a desperate team).

With regards to your 2nd point I think CJ spiller showed enough last year to prove that he can play when given the opportunity. The offense struggled last year after Jackson went down with an injury but it wasn’t because of spiller. He’s been mentored long enough, now it’s time for him to get some real playing time.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 19, 2012 4:03 AM EST up reply actions  

can’t be paying a backup (hang) more than your starter (wood)

According to Gailey, Hangartner was released because he was too small to hold up at his position, not because of salary.

by JapanJohn on Feb 18, 2012 12:10 AM EST reply actions  

Hard to believe

When the guy was his starting center for the entire season the year before. I mean at the very least he could be your backup (just in case an injury or abundance of injuries) which ended up happening. Also you can’t tell me a center (or guard since hang could play both) don’t get tired and would need a breather from time to time.

Also I never said Gailey or anybody else at OBD said that was the reason, just that was the reason some fans gave.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 18, 2012 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

i agree.

It isn’t like we were running Traps and counters all the time. he was better than having to rely on Levitre. Urbik proved entirely solid though, until he was injured.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

And I agree about the part on Urbik too. It was sad that it had to come down to that scenario though.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 18, 2012 1:49 AM EST up reply actions  

and after seeing Colin Brown at center

i became very skeptical about him. Maybe unfair, but he was far from impressive to me. MAYBE capable… and certainly better as RG/RT… but I am not all that impressed right now.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 1:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah me either

Just a big guy holding a roster spot for depth until somebody better comes along. He was cheaper than hang so he got to stay and hang got his walking papers.

"I promise you, ... When I come back, I'm going to be like a mad dog in a meat house." -Takeo Spikes

by panekattack on Feb 18, 2012 1:54 AM EST up reply actions  

i guess. I would have kept the contingency plan in place.

I call it a mistake.

"He is a man of courage who does not run away, but remains at his post and fights against the enemy."

~Socrates

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 18, 2012 2:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Fred jackson has definitely earned an extension. Nix is already on record saying, “We will take care of you.” The likelihood of him getting traded or released is slim. I think he’ll get a generous 3-4 year deal, but his carries will diminish after 2012.

by JapanJohn on Feb 18, 2012 12:13 AM EST reply actions  

We need two good backs

Young or old, running backs get injured. It would be silly to get rid of one especially if he was having a pro bowl season the year before. Who are you going to replace him with? That 5th round pick we got from the Seahawks? Then if by chance we get someone who is good as Fred we would still have to pay that guy. It would take a least two years to find someone as good as Fred. Two years lost.

Logically we should pay the man. Plus he deserves it and who wants to play for a team that releases their best players? Talent on talent. You don’t get to the Super Bowl without it.

by Bill Frank on Feb 18, 2012 7:22 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

IMHO

fred´s worth to give him an extension for at least 2 years with about 5-7mill. my point is not the past, to honor his last years productivity, because the nfl is a business and you cannot invest your money in the past.

my point is: he´s an elite rb with great abilities in running as well as in catching balls and he has at least 3 years of high-level productivness in his body as he played several years only arena league resp. nfl europe.

moreover he´s a bill. OBD gave him the chance to succeed in the nfl so there´s a lot of thankfulness, too, which leads him to a player who trains and plays wholeheartedly with devotedness for the bills. and that´s what fans love to see.
and last but not least – i think you need to have at least a pair of high-level rb to compete over a whole season if you take into account the possibility of getting injuries as well as implementing a diversified gameplan in your offense.
giving FJ the bulk of carries in 2012 and switching the bulk slightly over to CJ in the course of the 2013 or 2014 season should make us a team with a reliable and continuous running game for the next couple of years, having that fixed we can focus on other holes in our roster… and as we know – currently there are some… ;-)

by billssupporterfromeurope on Feb 18, 2012 7:27 AM EST reply actions  

Matt, I think it is also important to remember that Fred Jackson doesn’t really have to wear and tear of a RB who has been a feature back since college. He played D3, Europe ball, and sat for a bit before becoming the feature back in the NFL. I would venture to say that with the diminished games, lesser competition, and splitting time with other backs that Freddy may have the wear and tear of a 26 or 27 year old back.

All those guys you list were #1 backs since they entered the league, Freddy hasn’t been a #1 since last year

by BillsfanDan on Feb 18, 2012 8:08 AM EST reply actions  

It’s absurd for the fan base of this mostly talentless team to be speculating about and supporting the idea of tossing out one of Buffalo’s only legitimate players. I never disrespect the long suffering Bills’ fan base out of principle (this pathetic franchise has done enough of that on it’s own), but I feel a little ribbing is warranted here becuase this angle is exclusively being explored within the fan base and nowhere else that I’ve seen.

I see this fan base as a victim of OBD’s abuse; they often come across illogical in defending inept OBD and I chalk it up as a psychological defense mechanism. We’ve seen Buffalo trade useful veteran players for twenty cents on the dollar so many times and seen them let useful vets walk away in free agency so many times that fans support these frugal decisions before they occur so that they can themselves that everything is under control when OBD kicks them in the gut again.

Wilson and OBD have run this franchise into the ground over the past 12 years. If they are serious about changing their culture of spinning their wheels, they’ll lock up Jackson before next season. If they don’t, Buffalo is announcing to the league that they truly are a major league farm team for actual contenders. Many within our abused fan base will support this announcement with the ferocity usually reserved for defending a family member under siege. It’s irrational, but the fault lies with an abusive franchise, not the long-suffering fans.

"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix

by Port Royal on Feb 18, 2012 10:02 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

rec

understand your thoughts & agree in principal (i’d call it mismanagement effct) – but if u think its bad now, the late 70’s thru the mid 80’s were much worse.

It’s absurd for the fan base of this mostly talentless team to be speculating about and supporting the idea of tossing out one of Buffalo’s only legitimate players

"Will&Work2Win"coach Karma420

by Blood, sweat & Win on Feb 18, 2012 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

If they are serious about changing their culture of spinning their wheels, they’ll lock up Jackson before next season.

Based on what? He is bound to under-produce on that contract so while I understand your concern about not re-signing him, to extrapolate it out is too much.

by MattRichWarren on Feb 18, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

And what exactly are you basing your proclamation that Jackson is bound to “under-produce” on his next contract? Who knows what that contract is yet? Give him a large signing bonus that both rewards him for factually out-producing his current deal and serves to lock him long term. Give yourself wiggle room through incentives and/or non-guaranteed money in the later years of the deal. PAY a premium upfront in exchange for flexibility down the line. Above all else, keep what few decent players this putrid team has and try to add to the roster rather than replace.

If age was the only factor in this thing, Nix should’ve kept Lynch instead of Jackson. He didn’t. There’s wisdom on each side of that decision, but the fact is that the decision was already made. There’s no going back now if this team is to be taken seriously. I don’t take them seriously and I suspect you and the rest of the extreme pro-management fans out there will get your wish- Wilson will save some money. Tear down the goal posts.

"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix

by Port Royal on Feb 18, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

And what exactly are you basing your proclamation that Jackson is bound to "under-produce" on his next contract? Who knows what that contract is yet?

Well I am assuming that Fred won’t sign a below-market deal. His market put him at somewhere above $6M a season and I don’t see a 33 or 34-yo running back being worth that a couple years into the contract.

If age was the only factor in this thing, Nix should’ve kept Lynch instead of Jackson. He didn’t.

Two years ago? Jackson wasn’t 31 then. And it obviously wasn’t the only thing.

I suspect you and the rest of the extreme pro-management fans out there will get your wish- Wilson will save some money. Tear down the goal posts.

I’m pro-management now? I’m happy with 12 seasons without the playoffs? This league has proven over and over again that running backs are replaceable but you’re calling me out for this?

by MattRichWarren on Feb 19, 2012 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

“Pro-management” may have been too strong, but in reading your work for an estimated three years or so, you come across extremely understanding of OBD’s bumbling and are often very cautious with Wilson’s money. I think that’;s a fair read. Maybe that’s not completely accurate, but that’s my impression (and I admittedly don’t study all the writing that goes on in this forum- talking Bills isn’t exactly Chaucer).

Jackson is a very good running back, but has never been to a Pro Bowl. Yes, his age factors into his next contract as well and Buffalo shouldn’t give him the farm to retain him. But who says he’s asking for it. Buffalo got well above-market production from Jackson’s last contract and they were happy to collect on the discounted price. They can afford to build a little “reward” into his next contract as a way to retain one of their (very) few good players. this team needs to stop operating like a frugal business venture that is barely getting by week-to-week. They are a $25k investment that is now worth half a billion dollars. It’s time for Wilson to pay for a better product rather than thinking in absolute return down to the last dollar.

"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix

by Port Royal on Feb 19, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Actually, since he knows the Bills are going to be cautious b/c of “cash to the cap” he realizes there is only so much money to go around so making that investment in two RBs probably isn’t the best idea.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 19, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

“Cash to cap” is our own internal accounting practics. Nobody puts a gun to OBD’s head to use it.

"There's only one C.J. Spiller." -Buddy Nix

by Port Royal on Feb 19, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, but they are going to and have said they are going to continue to. So, you can operate in reality as MRW does and try to figure out how they can maximize their budget and still have the best players possible. I happen to agree that a long term, big-time money contract for Jackson doesn’t make much sense with how the Bills use their budget.

So, while it may be fun (I even enjoy it) to discuss throwing around free agent money and locking up all their good players, it makes zero sense to jump on people who point out that it likely can’t happen b/c of how the Bills do their budgeting.

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by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 20, 2012 7:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Age is against him..

But he was league MVP for 1/2 the season b4 injury.

He was team MVP & in my opinion won at least 3 games last year. That generally only happens w/franchise qbs.

Most important player on the roster as he elevated every player around him.

Id give him a deal that has heavy insentives that if he achieves the level of play he did last year that blows the ‘6 million /yr"’ away- 8 didgets/yr for Fred as long as he can generate that output.

He plays like a superstar that the Bills have not had in many moons- Pay him like it if he continues!!

"Will&Work2Win"coach Karma420

by Blood, sweat & Win on Feb 18, 2012 10:29 AM EST reply actions  

Absolutely Not

Jackson had a great year cut short by injury, but that does not predict his future. Running backs trend down hill after the age of 30 and regardless of his history, he has taken a beating. How many running backs have been consistently productive in their 30’s?
The Bills office has thrown good money at bad enough already. Is Ryan Lindell truly worth what he was just paid? The guy can’t even kick the ball into the end zone. Is Fitzpatrick worthy of a contract that rivals those of other starting QB’s? He is a backup at best in the NFL. Chris Kelsay? worth the contract he was given? I believe the Bills should look long and hard at their priorities and worry about Stevie Johnson and bringing in someone who can be a true starter opposite of him. Besides the fact that every one knows that the Bills need pass rushers. Giving Freddy Jackson an un needed contract extension will pretty much put to rest the possibility of bringing in an elite pass rusher or anyone else who will help push this team over the top and finally into the playoffs. Freddy is good, but the Bills can be good without him.

by popey on Feb 18, 2012 10:30 AM EST reply actions  

I think......

I may be wrong here, but I think if stevie wanted 7.5 mill/year he would already be signed….
And I think the Bills want to give something to Fred to keep one of the best players and main leaders happy but I think Fred wants Chris Johnsonish kind of cash.
A thirty-one yr. old RB with two yrs. left (now one) on his contract shouldn’t expect that.
If I were GM, I would take Chris Johmson’s yearly total add Fred’s amount for 2012 and divide by two. For Fred to get this money, he would have to add a year on the contract…..

If he didn’t like that he would just play out the contract….. I would not trade him, he is too good and you need lots of good players to compete. End of story there, unless someone offered a lot for him….a number one or a two and four, something like that. A lot.

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 18, 2012 10:48 AM EST reply actions  

Lets be a little smarter about this turning 30 and RB's business..

I don’t think turning 30 has anything to do with becoming worse with age. It has everything to do with the amount of carries you’ve had right? Let’s put this in perspective: The RB’s you mention:
1) Shaun Alexander had 2200 carries in his career
2) LT has 3100
3) Priest Holmes had 1800 carries
4) Marshall Faulk had 2800 carries
5) Jerome Bettis had 3500 carries
6) Portis has 2200 carries

Fred? —> 800 carries and started playing in the NFL at age 25. Not to mention Fred Jackson always has something to prove. You know he will give us everything he’s got and more with an extension. 3 or 4 more years is a logical extension given his carries and when he started playing in the NFL. If you are basing RB decline on the amount of physicality a guy’s taken over the years alone, he should be a tremendous back until age 33 or 34. I don’t believe that he will lose much of his agility or speed either: WR’s never do and stay in the league longer because they don’t take as many shots. Freddy has more in the tank than anyone gives him credit for. I am just flabbergasted by how disrespected this guy always is. He proves people wrong time and time again. Anyone who says he should go should be ashamed of themselves, it’s ludicrous

by Adam O on Feb 18, 2012 10:51 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

So.....

You are saying you would give Fred Chris Johnson type money and tear up his last year?

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 18, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

No

I would say 7 mil a year for 4 years would be fair and make sense. Chris Johnson is also younger and had a 2000 yard season so I have a hard time seeing how he’s going to get chris johnson money. Having two legitimate running backs is imperative at this time in the NFL. CJ goes down and we have no one. And is anyone thoroughly convinced CJ is the answer yet. Yeah he played well a few games but he wasn’t spectacular enough for me to say: “yea he can be our future back for the next 8 years easily”. I understand that we couldn’t run the ball with how many points we were giving up and he didnt get as many carries as he should have, but I’m just saying, Fred is literally in his prime. I think we’re looking at a guy who is running in a 27 year old body. Have you ever seen him run as fast as he did this year? I haven’t

by Adam O on Feb 18, 2012 11:12 AM EST reply actions  

I agree....

With everything you said…..but that is still a lot of money tied up.

I might give him the contract you specified, depending on how much is guaranteed, etc.

He clearly is one of best players and you definitely need depth.

But what if he wants more? And, I think he does…..

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 18, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions  

More on Fred....

I was just thinking that 7mill. is about what I suggested above. Chis Johnson contract and Fred current contract added together and divided by two…
It is probably a little lower.
The problem is that, I think, Fred wants more….

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 18, 2012 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

is there any...

statement of fred or his management on which you base your assumption that fred wants more? i cannot imagine that he´s really thinking about an extension on a chris johnson level. i assume that fred as well as his mgmt aren´t dumb. they also know how old fred is and to which franchise he belongs. its a rather small market for the bills and i guess fred just wants to extend his nfl-adventure for 2 or 3 years in the franchise which gave him the chance. i don´t think that his financial demand is beyond a rational level.

by billssupporterfromeurope on Feb 18, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I can't believe this is even a discussion

Extend Fred Jackson. Who cares about CJ Spiller, Jackson’s the man. You can basically subtract 3 from Fred’s age because of how he came into the league and how he split carries with the backs he’s played with. Curtis Martin led the league in rushing when he was well over 30. Jackson just came off his most productive season ever. It would be high treason not to extend our BEST player.

And all this about hindering CJ Spiller, hindering CJ Spiller. The only person hindering CJ is CJ. When Fred gets touches, he explodes onto the field. CJ should take a lesson from that and maybe he’d force his way onto the field as well.

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by Dyl on Feb 18, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions  

So....

You are saying to give Fred a Chris Johnson type contract?

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 18, 2012 12:18 PM EST reply actions  

Absolutely no one is thinking of a Chris Johnson type contract, not even Fred.

by kfisk214 on Feb 18, 2012 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t mind a very small 2-3 year extension, but if we don’t extend him it won’t be the worst disaster in the world.

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by UZ on Feb 18, 2012 12:54 PM EST reply actions  

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