Ryan Tannehill vs. SMU
A good breakdown of Ryan Tannehill from Mocking the Draft's UkRedskin.
4 months ago
Der Jaeger
40 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
was gonna post this here but you beat me to it. very good article.
Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.
I think he would beat everyone with any information on tannehill
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 3, 2012 9:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He's got more on Tannehill coming
It’s against Oklahoma State, not one of is better games. But at least we’ll see Tannehill at his worst. That should dispel some doubts.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I also agree with UK that trade back into the first is most likely. I understand your position that what you see is a franchise QB in 3 years. But high first rounders are more about probability and playing the odds. A former WR with 1 year of game tape at QB, ankle injury to boot, just doesn’t sound like enough to give front offices the confidence to invest so much in a player, no matter the position.
I disagree
If you’re going to take a risk, you take it on a franchise QB. The types of things that make a QB a risk to me are attitude, small size, etc. Like Jeff George or Kellen Moore. Tannehill has the size and skills, leadership, and as he showed above, he’s come so far in a year that it makes more improvement likely.
Plus, he wasn’t always a WR. He was a high school QB that got moved to WR at Texas A&M.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
I understand. And you may be right. But isnt there a reason he was moved to WR? I get that the risk is worth it when discussing QBs, but wouldn’t that logic have us selecting one at #3 last year?
I know it all comes down to player rank verses others on the board. Therefore who’s available when we pick at 10 is the key question. If for example, Claiborne is there does his rank outweigh Tannehills? This regime has shown that it will go BPA in the first, regardless of position. So Im not sold we will go Tannehill at 10. Now, can we slide down to 20 something and get him? That would be more appealing in my mind and a cue by Nix if able to pull that off. Enabling us to get him and target more depth through the addition of more picks.
Trade down to 20, pick Ryan, get another 2nd. Then take Curry/Hightower/Brown and then best WR or TE on the board with your additional pick.
That's playing roulette
There’s a reason why Nix let’s the draft come to him, and then takes BPA at position of high need. The idea of bouncing around the draft, pilling up picks, and then getting steals, doesn’t work.
The Patriots do it all the time. They essentially started their trade down to acquire picks logic in 2006. This is what they’ve gotten in rounds 2 and 3:
2006: Chad Jackson and David Mills
2008: Terrence Wheatley and Shawn Crable
2009: Patrick Chung, Sebastian Vollmer, Tyrone McKenzie, Brandon Tate, Ron Brace, Darius Butler
2010: Gronkowski, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Price
2011: Ras-I Dowling, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Ryan Mallet
That’s 11 seconds. Gronskowski is obviously great. Chung, Brace, Spikes, and Vollmer are starters. Wheatley, Butler, and Jackson never made it. Cunningham has done nothing, Dowling and Vereen are hurt. That’s one star, one good starter (Vollmer) two solid starters (Brace and Chung) and a situational LB (Spikes) in 11 picks.
That’s 7 thirds. Mills was OK but he’s gone. Crable, McKenzie, Tate, and Price are gone. Ridley contributed, and Mallet has potential. So, two hits in seven.
Many of those missed could have been first round picks. The theory of bouncing around the draft is highly overrated. Even when Jimmy Johnson did it with the Cowboys, he normally didn’t mess with his first round picks. He bounced around later on in the draft.
BTW, the entire 2007 draft washed out. The only guy that made the team was Meriweather, and he’s gone now.
If Tannehill is there at 10, I don’t mess around. I make the pick and never look back. I won’t mess with the Seahawks taking him at 12, or the Browns trading up from 22. Minnesota didn’t chance it with Ponder. They don’t regret it.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
It’s only roulette if Tannehill is the only guy you have targeted.
I feel it works if you have several guys targeted for that slot (20 something), especially if you don’t value any player worthy of a top 10 selection when your pick comes at 10.
New England never traded down from a high first selection into the 20’s. So I don’t feel like the comparison counts for much. The most recent example of a team trading down from around our spot was Denver and Cleveland. Both of whom got their guys (Denver w Tebow and Thomas. Cleveland two different years, once w Alex Mack and the other w Phil Taylor). Trading down from the late first into the second isn’t nearly as predictable as the first round is.
I understand your view that if you want him you take him. But does that mean you take a second rounder at 10 (assuming he’s graded as a second). That’s quite a stretch to me. In fact, if I were a Viking fan I would not be happy about their reach for Ponder last year. His talent just didn’t warrant a high first. And now that decision may impact their thinking this year, in the event RG3 is there when they select. Minny’s decision on Ponder reeked of the JP Losman selection by our Bills. Granted Ponder played at a better program. But it wasn’t as if he lit the league on fire. Ponders reach may keep them from landing RG3, much like our JP pick kept us from taking a certain QB from Cal. What’s his name? Oh yeah that guy Aaron Rodgers:)
In the end, reaching is reaching, no matter the player. Especially bad for your franchise when done at the top of the draft, where we should be landing ‘sure things’. We simply don’t have the luxury of missing with our first. However, if we do trade back and pick up another second, with this years depth at positions of need (OLB, WR and pass rushing DE’s – all having more depth than top tier talent IMO), I feel we can rebound nicely from a Tannehill selection at 20.
A lot of your theory is based on the assumption that taking Tannehill at 10 is a reach
Gil Brandt has him at 8 or 9. Brandt is the gold standard for draftniks, since he worked for 29 years for the Cowboys and invented many of the scouting techniques used today. Tannehill is also highly regarded by Dane Brugler, Mike Mayock, Todd McShay, Wes Bunting, Nolan Nawrocki, and Drew Boylhart. All of those guys have Tannehill in the first round.
I have Tannehill around 12. He’s not a second rounder.
So, if Buffalo is picking, and Tannehill is on the board, it’s not a reach. It makes no sense to trade down with an expectation that Tannehill will be available. He won’t. If Buffalo wants Tannehill, staying at 10 is the only logical course.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
We will see. I understand that the limited tape on Tannehill shows a promising player, no question. I like Tannehill and hope he is a Bill. I do not know if these analysts you mention are discussing more than just raw talent. Do they rank within the position, regardless of extenuating circumstances that may affect overall draft outcome?
Perfect example of this is Brandon Weeden. He has the most severe example of extenuating circumstance in the draft, as he turns 29 next year. Judge Weeden on his talent alone and he’s a first rounder. Thing is his age (aka extenuating circumstance) will hold him back, perhaps as late as a mid round selection.
My point is that it is tough to tell if scouts like Brandt and Mayock have these ‘other’ circumstances taken into account or not in their ranking. Personally, I have a hard time believing a player not asked to play QB until last year, couldn’t participate in Senior bowl due to injury, and has one year of tape on him in college, doesn’t have some downgrade attached to him because of them. I’m obviously no scout. I am just trying to be logical about it. (BTW, Mayock had Newton third last yr and Gabbert first. I didn’t agree w him then and a year later, not sure about his ‘eye’ for the QB position).
How much do you think Tannehill's foot will affect his draft stock?
I have read many mocks that have him going in the second round…..some of them have the Bills passing on him in the second round!!!!!!! I really didn’t think I would hate a pick more than the Whitner pick…then came the Spiller pick. If the Bills pass on Tannehill in the second round, I’m not sure my heart can take it :-)
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
The mocks aren’t really that accurate. The media folks adjust their board based on hearsay from team sources. Most team boards are set.
Here’s the problem: if I had to bet, I’d put a month’s pay on Tannehill carrying a grade that places him inside the top 20 on most team’s boards once they put them together. The media and draftniks, they don’t see it that way. I’ve seen a lot of mocks with Tannehill in the top 10, some with him not even in the first round. It’s that way even on CBS Sports alone.
When the draftniks talk to scouts, they start to get information about Tannehill. So he “starts to rise up boards.” That’s nonsense. The team’s grades are set. The media almost never goes back and says “we were wrong.” It undermines credibility, and that effects readership or viewers. So, it comes out that “Tannehill is rising up team boards.” That explains the truth, that Tannehill is carrying a high grade, and gets the outlet off the hook.
It’s no wonder the teams laugh at the media. They hear or read that, knowing that the media had it all wrong in the first place. But a guy like Nix can’t come out and give relevant facts, because it might expose how Buffalo puts their draft boards together, or how they assign grades. So the media goes on and thinks guys like Nix are incompetent, but in reality, the media is at fault for reporting “facts” while they are severely short on information.
I don’t think Tannehill’s foot matters. There’s enough on film already to hold his grade.
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
My issue isnt with tannehill or any qb in this draft
Its our inability to develop a qb properly that scares me
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 4, 2012 1:00 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Jp Losman trent edwards levi brown
Todd collins alex van pelt rob johnson kelly holcomb brian brohm
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 4, 2012 2:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Nix and Gailey were responsible for the development of none of those players, though. Even Brohm was coached for years before he came over.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Levi brown is a nix gailey qb draft pick
And just shows since 1995 we couldn’t develop a qb which scares me
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 4, 2012 3:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Right, I didn’t notice Levi in there. But then again, he’s a 7th rounder, so you can’t really hold his lack of development against the coaching staff, in my opinion.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
In the same sense matt flynn is a 7th rounder
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 4, 2012 4:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t understand your point.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Where you pick a qb doesnt matter
Its the inability to develop one that does
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 4, 2012 6:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Of course it matters. You can only develop so much. The QB has to have some talent. It’s much, much easier to develop a first-round caliber QB than a 7th rounder.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
I would disagree
Its the same no matter where you draft a qb its how you bring him along that matters granted there are a few who dont want to put in the work ala jawalrus
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 4, 2012 7:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’m confused by this…you think that if a 7th round QB doesn’t make it, it’s on the coaches? That doesn’t compute at all.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
well, if you base it off Fitz, then in a way, i see his point
if Fitz had just NEVER gotten the shot, because earlier selections kept “leap frogging” him year after year, then it is possible he never would get a shot. And yet- here he is, a starter for our franchise. I have brought this very same point up, numerous times, especially to DJ.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
But Fitz is very clearly an exception. I don’t think, if a 7th rounder doesn’t develop, it’s on the coaches. I think if an early rounder doesn’t develop, then the coaches deserve some blame, but I can’t expect them to develop every player drafted every year, especially at a position as important as QB.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
i address this view in my post below
in my opinion.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
If he doesn't stick longer than say 3 years than yea
3 years is a good time frame to judge a qb after 3 years and you see nothing its on the playa
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 5, 2012 11:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Haha, well that seems crazy to me. A coach cannot be expected to develop every player every year. 7th round QBs that don’t develop some of the time, most of the time, is just because they don’t have the talent. That’s why it’s referred to as “taking a flier”. A few stick. Most don’t, and it’s not on the coaches.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
True most 7th rounders dont pan out
But when you draft a qb no matter what round the intention should be to make him a franchise qb. Greenbay has done an exceptional job of doing that very thing
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 5, 2012 5:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
With whom? Their franchise QB is a 1st rounder. Matt Flynn played exactly one good game.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
Flynn has played two games
And did really well in them threw for over 300 yards in both
The qb before Rodgers was a 2nd rounder
With the first pick in the 2012 draft the Indianapolis Colts select Robert Griffen III
by Gpluehri on Feb 5, 2012 8:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
This statement is wrong in so many ways
Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.
and yet, there is still the potential for it to be right.
I understand statistically you don’t agree.
BUT, if we consider the “leap frog” idea I presented to you, numerous times (the earlier selection forces the later selection off the roster, based on their “potential” when we don’t know what the ceiling could have been with a “developmental” later round selection, then there will be far less evidence to support this idea.) However, there have been numerous coaches who feel the only way for a guy to truly learn what he needs is by starting, and those later round guys RARELY get those opportunities, really, because of this concept. IMO. I know you don’t agree, but you also can’t say that there is not any chance that a 5th round QB (Yates for example) couldn’t prove to be effective, and maybe even better than an earlier selection, if they were on the same team, with a similar background, but the earlier selection was “more talented” and yet, maybe the later selection, can grasp the system better.
I just think it is a little too “matter of fact” to simply say he is wrong, when really, just because it is maybe an exception, doesn’t mean it can’t happen. I mean, we both agree Fitz is a good guy for us, for right now, and yet, there might be earlier selected guys (brady quinn?) who would not INHERENTLY be better for us, just because they were picked earlier.
ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE
But this isn’t about whether or not 7th rounders can play better than early rounders, or have as much talent, etc. Clearly, as Bills fans, we realize the value of late rounders. However, if someone is drafted in the 7th round, then it is generally assumed by the league that his talent level or ceiling or whatever is less than earlier round choices. We cannot place blame on a coaching staff for not being able to turn a 7th round QB, who obviously very few teams even though of as backup material let alone a starter, into NFL-caliber QBs. It just doesn’t make any sense, regardless of the idea that he may be cheated out of opportunities by higher rounders.
There is definitely something to be said for giving even late rounders their fair shake, but they get OTAs and practices for that. You can’t expect the coaches to put every 7th rounder in a game situation. That wouldn’t be very smart, I don’t think.
"Slowly all the roles we act out become our identity. And in the end we are what we pretend to be." - Jerry Cantrell.
that fact that the Bills haven't spent more than a 7th round pick on a QB
is more damming than all the others screwing up QBs like Loseman…..at least they tried to develop a franchise QB.
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there." - John Wooden
"Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances." - Sun Tzu
Its our inability to develop a qb properly that scares me
Chan seemed to do a pretty good job at grooming Fitz into an above avg QB IMO. Add in the fact that Chan just hired the most sought-after QB coach in David Lee and I think we are a perfect landing spot for a young QB to be developed into a great NFL QB. I’m sure David Lee would love to get his hands on Tannehill!
Tannehill
The more I look at who may be available at 10, the more I think going QB could be a good idea. Really depends on what they do during FA because at this point LT, CB, WR, DE, SLB, and QB could all be options. IMO none of the players at those positions who may be available seem to be great surefire picks. So I would be very happy drafting our QB of the future here. Whether it be Tannehill, Osweiler, or whoever. A guy who can sit behind Fitz for a year and develop with our new QB coach.
With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Things to know about NFL men who served in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam
- How Kyle Orton almost cost the Colts Andrew Luck
- Detroit Lions DT Nick Fairley arrested again; now has more NFL arrests than NFL sacks
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
