BS Prospect Rankings

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 1:10 PM EST

Ok not complete rankings, but some that I feel are very relevant to the Buffalo Bills. In the midst of mock draft season, I figured I'd try a different approach to discuss prospects with this post. I've taken the Bills crying needs (DE, SOLB, etc) that we generally all agree on and split draft prospects that I feel fit those needs into three simple tiers. This is entirely opinion. They are players that I personally like that think fit what Buddy and Chan should be looking for.

Tier 1: Worth a premium draft pick. I'll define that as a pick in the top 75, basically through the top half of the third round.

Tier2: Mid-Round draft pick. Through pick 150 or so, or the middle of round 5.

Tier3: Late-Round pick. Either a developmental pick or a role player.

I've listed about twice as many guys for positions that I think the Bills could very well use two draft picks addressing. No analysis and no explanation, just the players. They are ranked according to how much I think they'd help the Bills. Obviously there's a ton of names I left off for one reason or another. It likely either means I think that players overrated or that he doesn't fit what they should be targeting. The positions chosen are: DE, CB, SOLB, OT, WR, Slot Receiver. I did not list any 'premium' pick OTs, because I find it so remarkably unlikely that Nix uses one of his first 3 picks on that position.

Defensive End/Pass Rusher		Cornerback
Tier 1:
Nick Perry	USC 6'3 250lbs	Dre Kirkpatrick	Alabama 6'3 192lbs
Vinny Curry	Marshall 6'3 265 lbs	Stephon Gilmore	S. Carolina 6'1 193lbs
Cam Johnson	Virginia 6'4 267lbs	Casey Hayward	Vandy 5'11 188lbs
Whitney Mercilus	Illinois 6'4 265lbs	Jemell Fleming	Oklahoma 5'10 202lbs
Shea McClellin	Boise St. 6'3 248	Brandon Boykin	Georgia 5'9 183lbs

Tier 2:
Malik Jackson	Tennessee 6'5 270lbs	Shaun Prater	Iowa 5'11 185lbs
Kyle Wilber	WF 6'5 240lbs	Ryan Steed	Furman 5'10 190lbs
Brett Roy	Nevada 6'4 280lbs	Josh Robinson	UCF 5'10 192lbs
		Asa Jackson	Cal Poly 5'10 193lbs

Tier 3:
Jonathon Massaquoi	Troy 6'2 270lbs	Robert Blanton	ND 6'1 200lbs
Jack Crawford	PSU 6'5 268lbs	Mike Harris	FSU 5'11 195lbs
Olivier Vernon	Miami (Fl) 6'4 265lbs	Charles Brown	UNC 5'10 205lbs

Sam Outside Linebacker		Offensive Tackle
Tier 1:
Dont'a Hightower	Alabama 6'4 260lbs	N/A
Bruce Irvin	WVU 6'3 245lbs

Tier 2:
Demario Davis	Ark. St. 6'3 230lbs	Levy Adcock	Ok St. 6'6 322lbs
Terrell Manning	NC St. 6'3 230lbs	Mitchell Schwartz	Cal 6'5 317lbs
Bobby Wagner	Utah St. 6'0 241lbs	Brandon Mosley	Auburn 6'6 310lbs

Tier 3:
Delano Johnson	Bowie St. 6'4 252lbs	Matt McCants	UAB 6'6 310lbs
Josh Kaddu	Oregon 6'3 235lbs	James Carmon	Miss St. 6'7 320lbs
		Jermarcus Hardrick	Nebraska 6'7 320lbs

WR		WRS
Tier 1:
Michael Floyd	ND 6'3 224lbs	Kendall Wright	Baylor 5'10 190lbs
Mohamed Sanu	Rutgers 6'2 215lbs	Joe Adams	Arkansas 5'10 174lbs

Tier 2:
Stephen Hill	GT 6'5 206lbs	TY Hilton	FIU 5'10 183lbs
Marvin Jones	Cal 6'2 198lbs	Devon Wylie	Fresno St. 5'9 185lbs
Juron Criner	Arizona 6'2 220lbs

Tier 3:
Jarrett Boykin	VT 6'2 218lbs	Dwayne Frampton	Ark St. 5'9 180lbs
B.J. Cunningham	MSU 6'2 215lbs	Eric Page	Toledo 5'10 180lbs

This post serves two purposes. (1) To highlight some names that maybe don't get much attention on this site. (2) in order to predict. These are players that I think fit the mold that Nix and Gailey should be looking for, and where I think they should be drafted. Who did I miss? Whose ranked too high or too low? What obvious position am I ignoring?

Poll

What do you think of this post?

Nicely done. I'd like to see more like it

47 votes

The names with no analysis thing is meaningless to me

27 votes

Mock draft or bust

8 votes

Take your nonsense elsewhere

26 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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Comments

I'm a Fresno fan

and Wylie is your guy if you want a slot receiver/PR. He’s fast (He’s been clocked at 4.25 hand-timed) explosive, and has surprisingly good hands for a speed guy.

Here are a few highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faqfXBtF50I

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4qdO6LgjQk&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoOeWtr8zW0&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLf2nxNBEhQ&feature=related

Caps lock is not cruise control for cool.

by ROFLCOPTER16 on Feb 7, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions

wylies awesome. i gave hilton the edge mainly because of wylies injury history.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that's really the only knock on him I can think of.

He stayed healthy this entire year, but his stats aren’t incredible because Jalen Saunders (23.1 yards per catch) vultured catches from him.

Someone – I forget who – said he was like watching Honey Badger play offense.

Caps lock is not cruise control for cool.

by ROFLCOPTER16 on Feb 7, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Speaking of great slot WR prospects coming off an injury, I like the idea of picking up Ryan Broyles in the 4th. Some risk involved but the potential payoff in the slot is HUGE. Of course I’d have several docs I trust look him over carefully first, but if his ACL recovery checks out, I’d take him in a heartbeat, especially if you could wait until Round 4.

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

No Alshon Jeffery?

What about Dwight Jones?
Are those guys not on your radar because you don’t think the Bills will be in the right spot to pick them? Or do you just not like them?
I think with a good combine, Jeffery becomes a top 10 option. And Jones could be a 40th overall pick.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Feb 7, 2012 1:56 PM EST reply actions

im not crazy about jeffery. at pick 10 id much prefer floyd and by the second round theres no chance hes on the board

i always saw dwight jones as a developmental kind of player. the senior bowl was a disaster for him, though. dwight jones might be one of the rare cases where a player actually loses draft stock because of a bad week in mobile. he was so easily thrown off his routes by smaller cornerbacks, and i find that hard to overlook

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

i thought.....

it was common for players to drop with poor Sen. Bowl week?

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 7, 2012 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

i dont believe it is. why would 2 bad practices and/or 1 bad game with unfamiliar teammates and plays outweigh years worth of tape to NFL people?

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

I liked the post

But, you should say something about each guy. I enjoy reading this more then mock drafts that are silly at this point because it is before the combine and free agency. Much changes after those 2 things happen.

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 7, 2012 3:38 PM EST reply actions

i didnt want to comment on each guy because that would suddenly become a whole lot of text to try and digest. i wanted to keep it simple.
if theres someone ur curious about u could ask me why they are on here or look em up

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

what?!

get to work boomsauce…..

PodunkO - The great post ender!

by podunkowego on Feb 7, 2012 7:40 PM EST up reply actions

I have to agree...

The effort is great, but my overall self induced ignorance to all things college football leaves this as less than useful to me. Even some simple stats/bio would help.

Not asking for info supporting your placement, but rather incentive/tease for me to want to research more myself.

"WE’RE SUPER FREAKY" – STEVIE J
The Bills are like your parents. You can’t choose them, and no matter how much they disappoint you, and no matter how much you want to hate them, you simply love them. - BuffaloOwdaTwnr

by BigBlkGr8Dane on Feb 7, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

take his suggestions look up some game tape then come back and make some good points

by forlife on Feb 8, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

OK, forlife: how is my mock draft horrible?

I have carefully research the candidates, their most likely position taken, and the Bills’ team needs (plus factored in that the Bills re-sign Stevie Jackson and sign a new starting CB as well as sign another starting WR in FA). What positions have I missed? What is wrong with the prospects I have listed? What would you do differently?

by wpod on Feb 9, 2012 1:42 AM EST up reply actions

Don’t know how you missed listing Quinton Coples as a Tier 1 DE prospect; he stands above all others for a 4-3 defense and if he lasts to the #10 pick there is no way I see the Bills not taking him in a heartbeat.

Other than that I also disagree with your SLB rankings. I think a peek at my signature mock draft (below) should give you some idea what I think. If Coples is gone I would look to trade down, if possible, because I perceive very little difference between Mercilus, Ingram, and Perry and at least one of them should still be there even after trading down.

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 3:41 PM EST reply actions

ill respond to all your posts here.
firstly, i was never big on broyles. even if he stays healthy i dont know hes more than a late round pick. hell get open and make some catches, but hes not the cat-quick slot guy that i think the bills should be going after (neither is page really, but thats why i listed him so low). is they draft a slot guy they need to be trying to replace roscoe parrish. ergo, the bills should go after someone who can create yards for himself by making people miss. i dont think broyles can do that in the NFL

mercilus, ingram, and perry all have different skill sets. perry is a tricky fit in the 4-3 (hell need to get stronger), but a good coach should make a pretty darn good RDE out of him. mercilus is probably a better fit at LDE, as he lacks a good burst off the line for the NFL. ingram isnt a fit anywhere in a 4-3 really. ingram to me is massively overrated because of his athleticism, i dont think the guys all that good of a football player.

as for coples, i dont want that man in a bills uniform. id rather take a lesser talented guy who plays with a lot of heart than a guy like coples who looks disinterested and bored half the time.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

[Homerism engaged]

Wylie is great at making people miss, hence why I’m pimping him.

Caps lock is not cruise control for cool.

by ROFLCOPTER16 on Feb 7, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

ingram isnt a fit anywhere in a 4-3 really. ingram to me is massively overrated because of his athleticism,

I could see Ingram playing a Jeff Posey like SLB role or Buffalo.

flayed ones stealth mode

"Fleshling! Do not shoot! For I am one of you fleshy things. It is I. Your Uncle Stan. Can't you tell by the long strips of fleshy substances covered in bodily fluids? Trust me! I have fleeeeeeeeesh."

by mob16151 on Feb 8, 2012 4:12 AM EST up reply actions

Its funny that you mentioned this:

as for coples, i dont want that man in a bills uniform. id rather take a lesser talented guy who plays with a lot of heart than a guy like coples who looks disinterested and bored half the time.

I got bad grades in math growing up, teachers thought that I was learning at a low level. So they wanted to put me in a remedial math class. Instead, my parents suggested that they put me in class where the kids were smarter and the work was harder. Guess what, it worked. I wasn’t being challenged. I lost interest when the work became to easy…I simply got bored.

I see this as a possible reason for Coples play. The guy simply hasn’t been challenged at the collegiate level. He wasn’t even challenged during senior bowl practices. This guy has been a “man-child” his whole life. 6’6" 282 lbs of pure atheleticism…When this guy get to the next level, he can be unstoppable.

by doctork44 on Feb 8, 2012 8:51 AM EST up reply actions

but if you put a guy like Coples on a line with Dareus Williams and Kelsay if we have no one better than Chris he would be guilted in to being a hard worker

by forlife on Feb 8, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Oops - forgot to list my entire 2012 Bills Mock Draft (below)

Round 1: DE Quinton Coples
Round 2: SLB Ronnell Lewis
Round 3: OT Mitchell Schwartz
Round 4: WR Ryan Broyles
Round 4: CB Coryell Judie
Round 5: QB Chandler Harnish
Round 5: TE David Paulson
Round 6: C Garth Gerhart
*Round 6: LDE Tyrone Crawford
Round 7: WLB Sammy Brown

- Compensatory Pick (for Poz)

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 3:42 PM EST reply actions

after Coples you lost me, that is one horrible mock draft

by forlife on Feb 8, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

FA Also

BTW I also see OBD re-signing Stevie Johnson, signing an additional WR (i.e., Dwayne Bowe; Vincent Jackson; Robert Meachem) and a new starting CB (i.e., Richard Marshall; Tracy Porter; William Middleton; Terrell Thomas). If they’re smart they’ll also re-sign Scott Chandler, too.

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 3:47 PM EST reply actions

Or

sign Avril and draft Kirkpatrick in the first, and replace chandler with Ladarius Green or Michael Egnew in the 3rd or 4th rounds

by forlife on Feb 8, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Josh Norman

From Coastal Carolina should be in your tier 1 of CB’s.

by phaze1 on Feb 7, 2012 4:33 PM EST reply actions

hes not on there specifically because i bet his hype train gets him drafted before the 4th round, and i dont think hes remotely worth the bills third round pick.
i get wary about a guy who made a name for himself by dominating the shrine game practices, only to follow them up with a mediocre showing in the shrine game itself and a poor one in the senior bowl

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

Nice post.

Hightower would be a great pick IMO. He can play SLB and 4-3 DE. when we run the nickel package, he can move in as a pass rushing DE for Kelsay/Carrington. And of course we are going to sign Mario Williams to play the other side :)

With the 10th Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills select Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama.

by tomcs on Feb 7, 2012 4:41 PM EST reply actions

i like Malik Jackson

and what LB spot would Keenan Robinson out of Texas play?

"Hardwork beats talent when talent fails to work hard" -Norm Nixon
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -Confucius

by ChewyFL on Feb 7, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions

probably the weak side. robinson is real bad at taking on blocks as far as i can tell.
hes a very good athlete, if hes available late and the bills want more competition behind barnett then robinson could be a logical pick.
for the purposes of this post (trying to focus on the obvious needs), i tried to stick with guys that i think can play on the strong side

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

ya thats what i was looking for thanks.

"Hardwork beats talent when talent fails to work hard" -Norm Nixon
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -Confucius

by ChewyFL on Feb 7, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know where you get your lowly opinion of Ryan Broyles but

here is one of many, extremely positive scouting reports on him as an NFL prospect: http://nflmocks.com/2011/10/10/ryan-broyles-scouting-report-wr-oklahoma-sooners/

NFLmocks preseason scouting report/bio
Small possession receiver who has been nothing short of spectacular for the Sooners throughout his career. First team All-American in 2010 after catching 131 passes for 1,622 yards and 14 touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, has 220 catches for 2,742 yards and 29 touchdowns while also doubling as a punt returner for the Sooners. Averaging around 11 yards per punt return (90 PR for 998 yards) and has started 26 games over the last two years. Has started 34 games in three years for the Sooners, catching passes from both Sam Bradford and top QB prospect Landry Jones. Broyles isn’t going to really benefit from going back to school another year other than the possibility of a national championship, which seems likely. Fifth year senior with a ton of experience. Not the fastest receiver but very quick, understands route concepts, and understands defense. Was a big time defensive back in high school. Gritty player who is not afraid to put his body out there for contact. Owns 10 Oklahoma records, and is the first WR in 72 years of recorded history at Oklahoma to lead the team in scoring (2009). Broyles is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and has 16 plays of 40 or more yards.
Pros
Extremely productive…catches everything that hits his hands….effective punt returner…willing to go over the middle…could post big bench press numbers for his size at combine…top route runner…excellent at finding the soft spots in zone…minor character concerns, but seems to have matured a lot…durable…good at getting the few extra yards needed for a first down, but not going to take a screen pass 80…gets up field immediately…
Cons
not a punishing run blocker…doesn’t break a lot of tackles…more quick than fast…could struggle against press coverage vs good cornerbacks…runs a lot of bubble screens not really a con, just boring to watch
Player comparison:
Steve Smith of the New York Giants (now of the Eagles)
I think he’s a better prospect than Steve Smith, but I’m not sure if there is a better player comparison out there. Broyles is more productive than Steve Smith was in college, but they project as similar pros. Like Smith, Broyles is adept at finding the soft spot in zones, is more quick than fast, can grab the yards after the catch (he’s better at that than Smith is) can work out of the slot, will go over the middle, and catches everything that hits his hands (he actually might have better hands than Smith as well). Smith gets over the top once in awhile, but that’s not his game. This is Ryan Broyles if he plays in the right system he could be a 100 yard catch a season kind of guy. Broyles is also a better punt returner than Steve Smith.
Round projection: late first-to middle of the second
General managers don’t want to spend a first round pick on a smallish possession wide receiver, but that could be a mistake on their part. They want big fast, explosive WR early. Bryoles will be a good productive N.F.L. pro in the right system and is a very safe draft pick, but he lacks the "wow" factor to be selected high in the first round.

Obviously written before Broyles suffered his ACL injury; that’s why he’s a 4th round prospect instead of a solid Round 2 prospect. He’s a GREAT slot WR prospect.

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 5:49 PM EST reply actions

we have

too many slot guys now. The one spot they have a ton of depth is slot.

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 7, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

and those slot guys are… just david nelson?
you can bet the bills add a roscoe parrish kind of slot guy to the team some how this offseason. buddy nix said it point blank at his press conference

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

ahem

David Clowney, Aiken, Naamen, and Donald Jones would all man the slot if they resign Stevie and get a real number 2 in here, or is that not correct?

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 7, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

i think aiken and jones clearly belong as backups on the outside.
roosevelt and clowny are slot guys i guess, but neither one is particularly good. i certainly wouldnt call them ‘a ton of depth’, neither of them can make the average NFL roster, and i would consider each of them huge longshots at making the team out of camp. neither one is the quicker-than-fast slot guy that im talking about either.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

again

I have to say that according to most, Clowney is as fast, if not faster then Parrish. He is supposedly as fast as Spiller.

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 7, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions

clowneys a straight line athlete tho. ‘quicker than fast’ is about short area burst, change of direction, and balance.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 8, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

my opinion of broyles is mine. i didnt get it by reading scouting reports.

im not going to accept any single scouting report as fact, especially one from before the 2011 season. besides that, its just as easy to find a negative opinion of practically anyone as it is a positive opinion.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

BTW, Broyles' receiving stats for his NCAA career =

349 catches for 4,586 yards and 45 TDs. You wanna try to show me any other WR in this draft with anywhere near that amount of productivity? How you could ignore a guy like that for slot WR is beyond me. If he’s there in Round 4 and if his ACL recovery checked out OK with the docs if Buddy Nix doesn’t take him I’ll be shocked. Shocked.

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

You wanna try to show me any other WR in this draft with anywhere near that amount of productivity?

no problem.
patrick edwards (4507 yards), jordan white (4109 yards), and kendall wright (4004 yards) all had monstrous production as collegians. the all time NCAA leader in receiving yards is a guy named trevor insley, who was out of the NFL in 3 seasons. would you be shocked to see the bills pass on edwards or white in the fourth round if broyles is already off the board?
college productivity does not equal professional productivity. if it did there would be no use whatsoever for scouting departments. lots of players, from literally every position and every school, were awesome in college but stunk in the NFL. theres a reason that very few people think kellen moore can hack it in the pros just like theres a reason that antonio coleman can lead the SEC in sacks in 2009 but be a useless NFL player

you obviously think broyles’ production translates into the pros. thats fine. i look at his skill set and i see a late round pick, and i happen to prefer a guy named dwayne frampton in that range

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

Fair enough, though I think you're discounting those 45 TDs pretty easily

My opinion of Broyles’ value simply differs from yours. I can respect your argument and your opinion as long as you understand that mine is not based on a trivial whim, either.

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

No love for Upshaw, Jeffery, or Minnifield?

That’d be my dream 1,2,3 scenario.

by flutieflakes007 on Feb 7, 2012 5:59 PM EST reply actions

ive never liked upshaw half as much as most on this site. jeffery i already explained earlier. minnifields not on here because i happen to like those other ‘tier1’ cornerbacks more

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 7, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

Why no Upshaw? He looks like a young James Harrison to me. Like a Fosters beer can full o cement. He also seems to be the guy most frequently mocked to us.

Big fan of your posts, btw.

by Munchausen on Feb 7, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions

my problem with upshaw is that i think hell be more limited in the pros than people realize. he plays hard and hes very strong, but hell also be limited by his speed, agility, burst, and lack of length.
in the bills 4-3, hed probably play kelsays role, and hed be decent or maybe good at it. but thats the problem: should the bills use a top10 pick on a low impact position and a player that wont be much better than the guy whose already there? he doesnt have the burst to play the dwight freeney pass rusher role, and he isnt athletic enough to play as a 4-3 backer.
ive always thought that upshaws best chance to be a difference maker in the pros is as a 3-4 SILB. if some team used him like bart scott, then i could see him being very good. but is that worth such a high draft pick? especially for a team that doesnt play a 3-4?

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 8, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

I also didn't get my opinion of Broyles simply by reading scouting reports

I watch a fair amount of college football on TV and I’ve watched him play several times and been very impressed. He understands how to get separation, runs great routes, is extremely sudden in and out of his cuts, and has excellent hands. He’s also got considerable YAC ability although, as the one scouting report that I cited says, he’s more quick than fast. In short I saw everything I look for in a quick slot WR from Broyles. Nelson can stay the big slot guy but I agree with you that Nix is going to look to replace Parrish in this draft and Broyles would be my favorite pick, especially if they can wait until Round 4 for him (only because of the ACL injury).

by wpod on Feb 7, 2012 6:46 PM EST reply actions

Adrian Hamilton of Prairie View A&M

DE/OLB 6’3 255
Just as someone to look at, seems pretty good. Same conference as Robert Mathis and in fact beat his sack title.

href=“http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/2/7/2774883/mirror-image-adrian-hamilton-de-olb-prairie-view-a-m” target="new">

"Hardwork beats talent when talent fails to work hard" -Norm Nixon
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -Confucius

by ChewyFL on Feb 7, 2012 7:04 PM EST reply actions

Hamilton is my personal sleeper pick

Between his position, his size/talent, and his coaching connections, I think he’s a 7th round pick.

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Feb 7, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

Three guys to think about

Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse. Kind of reminds me of Justin Tuck. Tall with long arms, he isn’t the elite outside athlete that he’s been made out to be. But he’s strong, and could be a 4-3 end that plays DT on passing downs.

George Iloka, SS, Boise State. I think he’s the exact type of player that Buffalo needs to combat the Patriot tight end offense. Iloka is like a big, tough press cornerback. He’s best in the box, playing man coverage and playing the run. I don’t think he’s a great deep safety, but he could be a great in-the-box safety.

Jake Bequette, DE, Arkansas. Sometimes I get a gut feeling about players. When I see Bequette, I see someone that could develop into Jared Allen. He fires off the ball hard, and has a good first step. He’s a power player that needs some more fluidity in his game. Allen took martial arts specifically to gain flexibility. If Bequette did the same, watch out.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 7, 2012 10:52 PM EST reply actions

um so...

with so many good DEs outside of the 1st round ie. Chandler Jones / Bequette / Adrian Hamilton(possible sleeper; my post above) /MeClellin / Cam Johnson / Curry / Malik Johnson

Maybe we go Wr in 1st then DE — TE — DE — CB — OT ?

"Hardwork beats talent when talent fails to work hard" -Norm Nixon
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -Confucius

by ChewyFL on Feb 7, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

Not a fan of a WR in the first

Especially at 10. If a team picks a WR early, he needs to be a Calvin Johnson – Andre Johnson – AJ Green style game changer. I don’t think Floyd or Jeffrey are game changers.

Eg: Dareus is a game changer. The offensive line is compelled to double team him most downs. CJ Spiller is a game changer because he can break free at any time, in the passing game, running game, or special teams. Those are what top ten picks need to do for a team.

The three game-changing receivers I mentioned above all attract bracket coverage or a double team on every down. That changes the dynamic for their offenses. If it takes two DB’s to cover one receiver, that almost forces the defense into cover 1 with man coverage on the other receiver. The TE and backs always work against linebackers. If the defense substitutes a Bryan Scott safety at linebacker, then the offense runs. This is exactly what Houston does and why they are so successful.

And even then, all three of those receivers can beat the double team or bracket.

The “take a WR high in the first round” is the yearly sexy argument. If that receiver isn’t a game changer, it’s a wasted pick. Why spend the 10th pick on Floyd or Jeffrey are game changers. Jeffrey isn’t that fast, he’s just big. And Floyd isn’t explosive down the field either. Why take one of them when Buffalo can wait until the second round and get Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones, Marvin McNutt, or Ruben Randall?

Notice that among the past six participants in the Super Bowl (Colts vs. Saints, Packers vs. Steelers, Giants vs. Pats) there’s been only three first round receivers on the field: Reggie Wayne, Robert Meachem, and Hakeem Nicks. None of those guys were high first rounders. All the rest of the receivers were taken outside of the first round.

Taking Jeffrey or Floyd isn’t good value for the 10th pick.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 8, 2012 9:15 AM EST up reply actions

great points Der Jaeger. I don’t want either of these 2 players at 10. Wouldn’t want either of them in the first round. They would be lucky to be drafted in 2nd round, if it was up to me.

Are we drafting Dino's now?
"6'6" monster receiver with a Terradactyl wingspan "....... Keysh67

by Billsfanstuckinthesouth on Feb 8, 2012 9:36 AM EST up reply actions

But the couple Super Bowls before that had Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and Plax Burress.

I think the difference of opinion is how good Michael Floyd is. I think he’s a Hakeem Nicks or Dwayne Bowe type of talent and worth a top 10 pick. Maybe not one of the truly elite guys like Calvin Johnson, but you’re never getting Calvin Johnson without a top three pick.

It’s easy to look at all the good WRs that come out of the 2nd and 3rd round but those guys bust a ton (first round guys do too, but I like Floyd quite a bit). New England may have just lost the Super Bowl due to the lack of an outside threat. the Packers havn’t used a first, but they’ve got four 2nd and 3rd round picks on the roster at WR and they had used a ton of early/mid round to solve their WR position before they started hitting on guys a few years back. The Colts also used first round picks to take Dallas Clark (I’ll count him as close enough to a WR) and Anthony Gonzalez. the Saints used a first on Meachem. With Stevie and David Nelson, I like the idea of adding a player who could solidify the WR core with one pick instead of having to use a few hit or miss 2nd and 3rd round picks and hope that one is impactful enough to settle the position for awhile.

"You mean @TWHITNER. It’s how he prefers to be referenced." - Jon Harrington

by kaisertown on Feb 8, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

Except that I don’t consider Floyd worth a top ten pick. He might be Nicks. He might also end up like Robert Meachem. I’d rather take my chances on McNutt, Jones, or Sanu. Sure, 2nd round receivers bust. But first round receivers bust at a pretty alarming rate. My sample size is ten years, from 2000-2009, so as to not unfairly grade a draft class within three years.

In those ten years, 43 receivers have been taken in the first round. I categorized them, with the first category as “stars,” meaning that the receiver is a primary target for the offense, and the defense has to change from standard coverage schemes to account. The second category is “average,” meaning that the receiver is good and contributes, but may not be the primary target, and the defense can play standard coverage packages. The third is “bust,” meaning that they never panned out.

There are 12 “stars,” 11 “average,” and 20 busts in the past ten years. 53% of receivers in the first round over ten years make an impact on their team. But only 28% make the kind of impact that Buffalo truly needs.

Breaking it down even further, most of the busts are high in the first round. Of the 20 busts, 13 have been from picks 1-16. Only 7 busts have come from picks 17-32.

The stats are pretty even for “average” receivers. Six have come picks 1-16, and five from picks 17-32.

8 of the 12 “star” receivers have come from picks 17-32. Only four “stars” have come from picks 1-16: Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Burress.

This argument leads back to my point: if you’re not looking at a Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald high in the draft, don’t take a receiver. I don’t see Floyd or Jeffrey in that class, and so I’ll pass.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 8, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

whats the amount of Stars, Average, and Bust from the 2nd&3rd round? Do more stars come out of the second round?

"Hardwork beats talent when talent fails to work hard" -Norm Nixon
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -Confucius

by ChewyFL on Feb 8, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

In the same time frame, seven star receivers were drafted in the second round

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 8, 2012 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

i am not gonna get into a huge debate on this

but:

Except that I don’t consider Floyd worth a top ten pick. He might be Nicks. He might also end up like Robert Meachem.

8 of the 12 "star" receivers have come from picks 17-32. Only four "stars" have come from picks 1-16: Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Burress.

So… move backwards and risk not getting him, because so many in the top 20 might be considering a large target, or just ,take the guy, who fits the need, and could be any of the above? I realize you don’t think that is the case. That is one opinion. But if he was a “17” in value, I don’t see why this “reach” means that he isn’t one of the best possibilities, when there aren’t many WRs in the mix, and far more DE/OLBs that we are going to burn our whole draft on anyway.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 8, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

This method isn't how successful teams draft

This method is how you end up with Whitner over Ngata.

I mentioned nothing about moving back in the draft. I’m a huge proponent of only moving back when no one on your draft board is of value for the pick. Or, if there’s a player of value available, but you’re already stacked at the position, it’s OK to move back. If not, gaming the draft makes for sexy draft day viewing but, as the Pats have shown, it leads to lots of 2-3 round picks that don’t pan out.

Buffalo should just stay at ten and pick the best player available. Buffalo reached for Whitner because they thought they needed a safety, instead of picking the BPA, Ngata. Buffalo could reach 7-8 slots to take a “1” player in Floyd. Or they could just take a “1+” player in Dre Kirkpatrick.

Why reach for a player like Floyd, instead of just taking a player they need anyway, Kirkpatrick. And Kirkpatrick’s a better player than Floyd.

I sense a great deal of the fanbase “wants” a WR. I also sense a stretch of drafting logic to fit that desire. Not saying that you’re one of those folks, but that’s kind of how a bunch of threads have gone.

I refer back to my own standard, my draft rules. Take BPA. Only reach for a QB that you think has franchise QB potential. That’s why I’ve advocated Tannehill, and think that Kirkpatrick might be the pick since he’s got potential to be the BPA still available at 10.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 8, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

This method is how you end up with Whitner over Ngata.

only if your assessment is correct. I don’t think that he is so far from a top 10 pick, as you do. I never said you said anything. But if you feel the pick value exceeds his value, then logic would suggest moving backward as a possibility. Supply also drives demand. That was my point.

Others might disagree about Kirkpatrick. A top ten pick, probably shouldn’t be smoking weed, weeks before the biggest interview of his life. So while he may be more talented, he has question marks. Yes- I fully expect the “dui” story to be noted. And it is hence, noted. But he at least has had time to show the ability to move forward and beyond this. Kirkpatrick doesn’t and won’t have this chance prior to being drafted. People are going to have to take a bit of a leap of faith for both, so this is a relative cancellation, and comes down to not drafting outside of need/value in the top 10, the previous discussion. IMO.

Most of the fanbase is correct to want a WR. Someway, some how, we need better targets, ESPECIALLY with Fitz, who is crazy inconsistent and inaccurate. We have spent 2 full drafts on defense, are going to spend a third, why the heck can’t we take the BPA for offensive weapon, with our earliest pick? we did with Spiller. Lots of people complained and disagreed with this selection (I personally called it, and have remained a supporter always) and yet- now how many fans have a different perspective? BPA is still a bit of a question mark. I think measurables, along with body of work, will have a significant bearing, not to mention when that is coupled with the number of top 10 teams that not only need a WR, but took a QB recently. I think WRs are going to be the QBs of last year, and aside from the first 2 QBs going somewhere in the top 10, the rest are likely to linger longer than some might expect.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 8, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

A top ten pick, probably shouldn’t be smoking weed, weeks before the biggest interview of his life.

is that what he did though? my understanding is that he was arrested for possession, only to have the chargers dropped when the other guy claimed that kirkpatrick didnt have any idea it was in the car
id agree with u that a high draft pick shouldnt be screwing around. but is he a kid who made a mistake or is it a real character issue? thats something we cant figure out from home

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 8, 2012 10:35 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, wasn’t Marshawn’s gun or weed probably either. you are right. regardless- if this is a non issue for us, then it is a non issue for others. which means that he is just as likely to be gone by 10, as anybody. Most mocks have him going 7-9, as far as I have read.

I agree with your last statement, but that is where Floyd kinda has the advantage; he has had at least a year to show that he understands the levity of the situation. Kids make mistakes. I don’t care if he did it, or didn’t. I just think that NFL coaches/gms/owners think differently than I do, probably ESPECIALLY as it relates to that particular offense.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 8, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions

It was his cousin's!

Ha!

"My new cat just farted on my lap. Smells like Bills football." BG.

by SERGEANT MAJOR THOR on Feb 9, 2012 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think Floyd is anywhere near a top ten pick. If I put a board together, I’d struggle to get him into the top 20. I’d don’t see the compelling talent that puts him with guys like Blackmon or Wright.

You only move back for Floyd if the team has locked onto Floyd as the player it wants. Then, the team realizes that Floyd isn’t worth the 10th pick, and trades back. This method is hat New England has done over the past four to five drafts. They’ve stockpiled lots of 2nd and 3rd, and missed on a bunch of them. Their entire 2007 draft is off the team.

I think that locking onto Floyd, and trading back to get him, is bad draft logic. I’d rather not lock onto anyone, and pick the best player. Green Bay did that for years, and it shows. They never needed Aaron Rodgers, but they sat at their pick, and when he fell, they picked him. They did that throughout their drafts.

WR’s, with the exception of crazy years like 2008, go in droves in the first round almost every year. And, you’re right, sometimes the value is driven up. That doesn’t mean Buffalo should jump on the WR wagon and reach. What if Blackmon, Wright, and Jeffrey go somewhere 1-9? Should Buffalo take Floyd because there’s a run? What if that drops someone that has greater value though? Why reach for Floyd when you get a better player?

Most of the fanbase is correct to want a WR, but not correct to think that drafting for need in the first round in the answer. How many first rounders does Drew Brees throw to? One, and he’s a last-option guy in Meachem. Rodgers doesn’t have a single first rounder receiver on the team. Brady’s never had a first round receiver. Roethlisberger still got to a Super Bowl without Santonio Holmes.

Drafting a receiver in the first round isn’t the way to improve the passing game. Reaching for Floyd won’t improve the team. I’d draft Tannehill or Kirkpatrick, and try for a WR in the second. I’d bet that a guy like Mohamed Sanu is going to be every bit the pro Floyd will be, at a far reduced price.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 8, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

If I put a board together, I’d struggle to get him into the top 20. I’d don’t see the compelling talent that puts him with guys like Blackmon or Wright.

Then you would be one of the few. I have seen most Mocks that have him between15 and 25. A good combine isn’t unheard of to elevate a WR. look at Julio Jones last year.

Drafting a receiver in the first round isn’t the way to improve the passing game.

Yeah, we should probably get a LB for that.

WHAT??!?!?!? I mean, if you were satisfied with your line (it appears as though they are happy to bring guys along, or draft them late) and your QB, and your RBs…. ummmm…… how exactly do YOU propose you improve the passing game? What does Tannehill do for the passing game, uh, from the bench? Why does your OBVIOUS “want” of Tannehill, automatically trump others’ want of a WR? Sanu, looks good. Jeffery or Kendall Wright could end up better. Or they could be James Hardy. I mean, there aren’t any guarantees, but what I do guarantee, is we could use an upgrade at WR.

Most of the fanbase is correct to want a WR, but not correct to think that drafting for need in the first round in the answer. How many first rounders does Drew Brees throw to? One, and he’s a last-option guy in Meachem. Rodgers doesn’t have a single first rounder receiver on the team.

Draft the guy, where he is available, if you like him. Brees has one more first rounder than we do. Brady’s best season was with first rounder Randy Moss. Cobb was a second, and if I thought that any of the above might be there, for a second round pick, this conversation wouldn’t even be happening. Supply and demand. We have the demand, the supply is low, and needs should be met. That is my opinion.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 8, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

You're missing the point

Draft the guy, where he is available, if you like him

Then be ready to live life rooting for the Donte Whitner’s of the world.

I’m sold on Tannehill, but not trying to convince you of his worthiness of the 10th pick. If Buffalo took Kirkpatrick, I’d be fine with the pick, because he’s worth it. And better than Floyd.

Just because the passing game needs better receivers doesn’t mean you draft a WR in round 1. It might mean that you sign Meachem and draft a receiver in round 2 or 3. But it shouldn’t lock a team into picking a WR, a reach no less, to satisfy a need, and not pick the best player available.

You’re just as locked into Floyd now as you were locked into Upshaw or an OLB. I wanted Tannehill but could accept BPA.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 9, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

You’re just as locked into Floyd now as you were locked into Upshaw or an OLB. I wanted Tannehill but could accept BPA.

find me the post where I said i even wanted Upshaw. That is completely wrong. I have been pulling for CB and WR. Fact. I think both Upshaw and Ingram both are questionable at pick 10, due to their lack of height. I have also been wanting Curry or Hightower, i have been more than consistent on these 4 guys.

I would also be find with Kirkpatrick, because I could care less about the weed. It addresses a significant need in my eyes, and with a 10 pick, i want true talent. I think your assessment of Floyd being a “Donte Whitner” of the world is completely inaccurate.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

also

Please, stop assuming I am too stupid to understand what you mean. Just because I don’t agree with your assessment, doesn’t mean I don’t follow it. I simply don’t see it the way that you do. I think Floyd will show in the combine, why he will go between 5-15, where we sit right in the middle. I DO understand your point. I just think it is a total exaggeration, and just an example of you not being a fan. I accept you don’t want the guy. I feel the same about Tannehill (unless he is there in the 3rd).

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

What do you think of Perry?

There are quite a few who are saying Perry is the best pass rusher and athlete and could be ours at 10.

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 9, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

suteck

i wish i had seen this post, before my scathing response before. I appreciate you asking my opinion, I apologize if i am too harsh in my response on another post, first and foremost. Ultimately though, I have seen more questioning of other’s logic from you, than I have your own view. Perhaps, it is because you are trying to learn more, and I hadn’t considered that, or rather, jumped to a different conclusion. I apologize, genuinely.

I think Perry would be a good value selection, in the 3-5 round range (know better after combine) because obviously, being in USC helps make prospects look a little better, but also, it might impact their playing time. So, he might be a good ROLB, at his current size, or if he intends to put on weight, he might translate as a 43 DE. I think that I would prefer Curry, or Hightower earlier, but if we missed on those guys, I wouldn’t HATE the Perry selection in the 4th or 5th.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 9:46 PM EST up reply actions

No problem

I was never trying to get under your or anyone’s skin. What bothers me is when people talk about stuff that can’t be changed.
I’d rather focus on what can be done. I also am patient.
I won’t make my mind up about Nix and Chan until I see their plan B and C. Life rarely works the way you want to. So, yeah, we are cool. Can we let Brian know that there are no hard feelings.
If anything, I’d rather us talk about the future, not the past.

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory, then slowly fade away in the antiquities of time.

by suteck on Feb 9, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

I can say that if he reads this- he will know there are no hard feelings.

if you flagged something- it will all get read, and the moderators read it/ along with understand sometimes emotions get flying around. If i get a warning, so be it.

I am cool with looking forward, but I am not about to turn a blind eye, to mis-steps that land us into these spots. These guys are accountable for a multi-million dollar business in a multi-billion dollar industry. That opens them to scrutiny, ESPECIALLY if the things they do are questionable, or in contradiction to what they CLAIM they are doing.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

I think you’re taking the “you’re missing the point” a tad bit too hard. It has nothing to do with being stupid.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 9, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

fair enough

but it isn’t the first time you have responded in this manner, and the last time we spent a significant amount of time arguing about things other than the “point” (pissing match as i called it) from this EXACT comment. I am taking “i am missing the point” as- I don’t follow the conversation, or don’t see your opinion. Neither of these things are true. They are your interpretation to the fact, that we are far apart on our assessments, and each of us thinks the other is wrong in where guys are slotted. That is likely never to change, but it doesn’t have to hinder conversations- so i chose to address other matters. Also, as I pointed out- you were completely off base with that comment. I see you chose to not only not apologize, but you rather just move forward to more reasons why you are right. This is similar behavior to what I have encountered before; I am ultimately not sure why I am surprised. These are the sorts of things I personally consider “dismissive”.

It is like: “oh, i was wrong and completely off base? well then, I will drive this other point home.” That really isn’t an effective way to maintain an audience, or keep conversations moving. Really, it only causes others to harbor resentment, and make assumptions, (or assessments based on actions) that you don’t really care to hear what others have to say; you really only care for all others to agree with you, and see your “correct” point of view, because we can’t be seeing it correctly, if we disagree with you. I am sure you will consider this a GROSS overexaggeration of the circumstance, but it has occurred over and over, and not just with me. Perhaps at some point, you can recognize that you too make mistakes, and though you might admit them to SOME people, apparently I am not worthy of that same level of respect.

I NEVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT WANTING INGRAM, OR UPSHAW. You claim I did. You are wrong sir. Additionally, I understand fully your view in this matter, and respectfully disagree.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions

When I watch Floyd, I don’t see a player anywhere close to the Johnson-type receivers. And, based on the research that I did above in response to kaisertown, unless you get a Calvin or Andre Johnson type, and overwhelming number of WR’s taken 1-16 in the first round flop. More elite receivers have been taken 17-32. Almost as many elite receivers have been taken in the second round.

So, yes, I consider Floyd a tremendous reach just to scratch the WR itch. Whitner was a reach to scratch Levy’s safety itch. Give me Kirkpatrick all day long over Floyd.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 9, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

and while i accept your research

i can say that past failure of one guy, is no indication of future failure of another. More elite players may be selected later, because they dropped down from other teams drafting needs ahead of BPA. there are way too many variables to draw legit conclusions, when we are talking 5-10 spots, for me. If we were picking 17-32 then, you are saying, there would be no concerns? if that be the case, then why would there be any, if we select a guy who we think will translate, a TOUCH earlier than what YOU are comfortable with? I just don’t really see what difference it makes. Each team gets 1 (of their own) selection per round. Each team is looking for the best guy for them, with that selection. Do you really think that we wouldn’t have selected Hakeem Nicks, if we were picking at 15? Is that why he lasted further? I mean, it had nothing to do with 5 WRs being taken ahead of him?

Heyward Bey (al davis all the way), Crabtree (top prospect), Maclin (similar, has been solid), Harvin (has been one of their best players)… these were the guys selected ahead of him. This draft had WRs in the first round, than ever in history, right? Who was taken after him, but Kenny Britt one selection later? So, of the first 4 guys, NONE of these are good enough in your estimation? I mean, it seems like you are more concerned with their statistics once in the league, which isn’t a fair assessment for drafts. These guys can only be judged against their peers IN THE SAME DRAFT, because that is all that is relevant when it is time to hand in your selection. I would argue that if Nicks were in this draft, he would trump Blackmon, if we already knew what he could do. So would Britt. But that isn’t how it works.

So, yes, I consider Floyd a tremendous reach just to scratch the WR itch. Whitner was a reach to scratch Levy’s safety itch. Give me Kirkpatrick all day long over Floyd.

I don’t. I think he is right about where he should be. Somewhere between 5-25. which is the first round. so if he is a first rounder for someone else, he could be for us too. I never said that Floyd>Kirkpatrick. I actually expect that we don’t need to make that choice, because Dre will be gone. If he were there at 10… I feel Kirkpatrick=Floyd.. because each addresses a need, but the lesser amount of WRs equals a higher value, as market dictates. Supply, and demand, like I originally said. CBs can be found later, and produce, more often that WRs can be found later, and produce, in my eyes. Maybe we can just hit up the waiver wire again… But someday, we are going to need some REAL wide receivers if we want ANY of our QBs to be successful.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions

The research is 1-16 in the first round, and 17-32 in the first round. Maclin, Britt, and Nix were all taken 17-32, as well as Harvin. I counted them as elite.

Teams that look at the draft as a market are making a huge mistake. It’s not economics. Supply can drive demand, but it shouldn’t.

Let’s say that we’re Buffalo, and we’ve got Blackmon as a 1+, Wright, Jeffrey and Floyd as a 1, and Sanu as a 1-. Marvin Jones is a 2+ and Ruben Randall is also a 2+. Our draft board has the receivers looking like this (completely for discussion, not my actual board):

5.) Blackmon
12.) Wright
16.) Jeffrey
18.) Floyd
26.) Sanu
39.) Jones
45.) Randall

Assume that the draft goes like this:

1.) Indy- Luck
2.) Was (from STL)- RGIII
3.) MIN- Kalil
4.) CLE- Blackmon
5.) TB- Claiborne
6.) STL (from WSH)- Jeffrey
7.) JCK- Coples
8.) CAR- Wright
9.) MIA- Upshaw
10.) Buffalo

There is one 1+ player left on the board, Dre Kirkpatrick.

Why should Buffalo take the lesser player, and reach eight picks? Just because they might lose out on a receiver? That makes no sense. Floyd isn’t worth the pick, and Kirkpatrick is. Why not take Kirkpatrick, and see what’s available in round 2? Plenty of great receivers come out of the second round.

I’d be happy with Kirkpatrick and Marvin Jones.

The lack of supply driving up value isn’t true. The lack of supply dictates a reach for a team that’s determined to draft for positional need instead of BPA. It’s bad drafting.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 9, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

i don't disagree

but this is ONE scenario, that you made up, that includes a trade, and has Jacksonville taking Coples in a spot that could be equally a reach, or a value. Dre, could go there. Or he could go to carolina (though I agree they want weapons too, along with ST Louis and Cleveland, as you correctly selected). Equally he could go to Miami. So now, we are sitting there with Upshaw, Ingram, Floyd, Sanu, Reiff, Mercilus…. i mean, of those- how many are really the “prototype” and how many are representing a larger group of guys. Again: you disgregard, or are “missing my point”.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

There are fewer WRs than DE/LBs. So their value is inherently higher, because the other selections can address other needs, with more potential prospects.

these are just the combine invites:

Defensive backs – 59
Defensive linemen – 59
Offensive line – 55
Wide receiver – 47
Linebacker – 33
Running back – 30
Quarterback – 19
Tight end – 14
Kicker – 11

That means there are 92 guys who we might find, at the combine, who could address DE/LB.
Wide receiver there are potentially 47 guys to take a chance on, to address this need. That is only the guys at the combine.

Of each category: how many of these can really be considered a #10 pick? maybe 5 WRs? Maybe 10 DE/LBs? I mean- the fact is that there are less “elite” prospects at WR than there are as a pass rusher, to me. That is why, we could potentially afford to wait, and still land a Curry, or a Hightower, or any number of other players, after selecting a WR.

There are even fewer opportunities for QBs that is why they get driven up, year after year, and if there are questions, they PLUMMET because they are too much of a risk.

ABAYARDE IS NOSTRADAMUS JUST WATCH WE WILL NOT YIEALD TO NOBODY YOUR SOUL WE WILL TAKE

by ThaRealTruth on Feb 9, 2012 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think he’s a Hakeem Nicks or Dwayne Bowe type of talent and worth a top 10 pick.

I think he’s better.

"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight

by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 9, 2012 2:44 AM EST up reply actions

I don't

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 9, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

ive never felt as highly about jones as u do, just my opinion.

i like iloka, but i was trying to focus on obvious needs. in my mind, safety isnt really one of them. searcy can play whatever role iloka would.

i like bequette a lot, actually. hes relentless. i could put him on that DE list behind massaquoi and scrap vernon, but i dont think bequette drops that far in the draft. i did my best to be realistic with these ‘tiers’ of mine.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 8, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

Where would you put

Emmanuel Acho?

flayed ones stealth mode

by mob16151 on Feb 8, 2012 4:14 AM EST reply actions

id put him in that second tier for sam linebacker. i like those others guys more tho, so i left him off

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 8, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

All I know is that the 13 yr old in me will laugh a little if we get Adcock

by legendmaker53 on Feb 8, 2012 1:21 PM EST reply actions

Imagine the line that could have been...

Wang-Levitre-Hang-Wood-Adcock
If only…

"Give a monkey a typewriter and infinite time, and he’ll eventually release Maybin." - stetzwebs

by DanRoc on Feb 8, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

You lost me at

NO Coples in your first 5 pass rushers.

"A Patriots loss is a Bills win" - TheAfghanTwighlight

by The Buffalo Kid on Feb 9, 2012 2:39 AM EST reply actions

ive explained my thoughts on coples multiple times. ill simplify it by quoting DJ, “looks like tarzan, plays like jane”.

Its fun to think quarterback, but i think the odds of nix taking one in the first are close to 0%.

by boomsauce on Feb 9, 2012 8:52 AM EST up reply actions

Why

Whats wrong with 55 solo tackles, 7.5 sacks in 2011? He did better in 2010. If thats Jane we need more Jane’s on our D. His purported lack of effort is just silly. He’s worthy of starting on a Bill’s D.

Don't Worry, Be Happy!

by buffalobacker on Feb 9, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

How many UNC games did you watch?

I watched a lot. Coples could’ve had way more sacks. There aren’t that many good offensive tackles in the ACC. He dogged a lot of plays. And he wasn’t tired, because UNC rotated their ends a lot.

Re-starting the official Buffalo "Draft a quarterback in the First Round in 2012" campaign.

by Der Jaeger on Feb 9, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

Update on my "horrible" Bills mock draft

Round 1: DE Quinton Coples
Round 2: SLB Vinny Curry
Round 3: OT Mitchell Schwartz
Round 4: CB Coryell Judie
Round 4: WR Ryan Broyles
Round 5: QB Chandler Harnish
Round 5: TE David Paulson
Round 6: C Garth Gerhart
*Round 6: LDE Tyrone Crawford
Round 7: WLB Sammy Brown

- Compensatory Pick (for Poz)

Basically replaced SLB prospect Ronnell Lewis with conversion prospect Vinny Curry. Some risk there but if he can handle conversion from DE to SLB think of the pass rush improvement…

by wpod on Feb 9, 2012 2:44 AM EST reply actions