Hey guys. I don't post all that often, but I figure I'd look at the draft to get a feel for who the Bills might be drafting. It seems like Nix tends to take the best player available and I wanted to get a feel for who that might be. I'll break it down after the jump using Kiper McShay and DraftTek's Big Boards.
OK so first up is two different tables. I know Nix doesn't like reaching so I don't see him drafting someone that isn't a top 15 pick. So here are the top 15 according to these sources:
| Rank | Kiper | McShay | DraftTek |
| 1 | Luck, QB | Luck, QB | Luck, QB |
| 2 | Griffin, QB | Griffin, QB | Kalil, OT |
| 3 | Kalil, OT | Kalil, OT | Griffin, QB |
| 4 | Richardson, RB | Claiborne, CB | Richardson, RB |
| 5 | Claiborne, CB | Richardson, RB | Claiborne, CB |
| 6 | Blackmon, WR | Blackmon, WR | Blackmon, WR |
| 7 | Kuechly, LB | Ingram, DE | Reiff, OT |
| 8 | Coples, DE | Kuechly, LB | Kuechly, LB |
| 9 | Reiff, OT | Coples, DE | DeCastro, OG |
| 10 | Ingram, DE | Poe, DT | Coples, DE |
| 11 | Barron, S | Barron, S | Cox, DT |
| 12 | Poe, DT | Brockers, DT | Floyd, WR |
| 13 | Floyd, WR | DeCastro, OG | Upshaw, DE |
| 14 | Cox, DT | Jenkins, CB | Mercilus, DE |
| 15 | DeCastro, OG | Upshaw, DE | Kirkpatrick, CB |
So obviously there are some players that are on 1 or 2 lists but not on the 3rd, so here is a second table with all the players from the 3 lists but with their ranks from the other sites and an average ranking in the last column (note the Kiper 26s for Jenkins and Mercilus means they weren't in his top 25):
| Name | Kiper | McShay | Drafttek | Average |
| Luck, QB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Griffin, QB | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.3 |
| Kalil, OT | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.7 |
| Richardson, RB | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4.3 |
| Claiborne, CB | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.7 |
| Blackmon, WR | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.0 |
| Kuechly, LB | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7.7 |
| Coples, DE | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9.0 |
| Reiff, OT | 9 | 16 | 7 | 10.7 |
| DeCastro, OG | 15 | 13 | 9 | 12.3 |
| Ingram, DE | 10 | 7 | 21 | 12.7 |
| Barron, S | 11 | 11 | 22 | 14.7 |
| Brockers, DT | 16 | 12 | 16 | 14.7 |
| Cox, DT | 14 | 19 | 11 | 14.7 |
| Poe, DT | 12 | 10 | 24 | 15.3 |
| Upshaw, DE | 18 | 15 | 13 | 15.3 |
| Floyd, WR | 13 | 23 | 12 | 16.0 |
| Kirkpatrick, CB | 17 | 18 | 15 | 16.7 |
| Mercilus, DE | 26 | 21 | 14 | 20.3 |
| Jenkins, CB | 26 | 14 | 28 | 22.7 |
OK now onto some analysis. I fully expect Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson and Claiborne to be gone. I'm also 95% sure Blackmon will be gone (I think we should take him if he falls to us). Since 9 players will be drafted before us this means at least 2 of the following names will be available to us at 10: Kuechly, Coples, Reiff, DeCastro and Ingram. As I stated above I don't think Nix will reach and thats why I expect it to come down to these 5 players.
My personal top 5 from this list would be:
1. Coples
2. Ingram
3. Reiff
4. Kuechly
5. DeCastro
Personally I don't think drafting a guard at 10 makes a lot of sense for value and that's why I pushed DeCastro to the end of the list. While I would really like an LT, the comments about Reiff seem varied and if the experts are concerned about his short arms and his ability to play LT that concerns me a little because they know a lot more than I do. Also, while I know we need LB depth, we need an OLB more than an ILB and from what I'm read Kuechly is more of an ILB (though I wouldn't complain if we took him). This by default leaves the top two pass rushers at the top of my list. I think our line would be dominate for the next 3-5 years if we were to draft one of these two players because we'd have Kyle Williams (5 year left), Dareus (3 years left), Mario Williams (6 years left) and Coples/Ingram (4 year contract).
So what does everyone think? Do you think it comes down to one of these 5 players? Do you have a different personal ranking?
Sources:
Kiper (updated 3/14) - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7685753/2012-nfl-draft-mel-kiper-latest-big-board
McShay (updated 3/14) - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7686324/depth-strong-several-positions-2012-nfl-draft-board
Draftek (updated 3/9) - http://drafttek.com/BigBoardPg1.asp
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