FanPost

What is a #2 WR? And why do we need one?


Now that the DE position has been addressed a lot of people on this site feel that a #1 Draft pick should be made for a #2 WR in our scheme (like it or not SJ is Fitz #1WR). I'm not a huge fan of this and let me explain why.

First and foremost, and I'm sure many people are going to debate this, but the Bills and Chan have built a running offense. They realized that playing outdoors in the cold and against QB's like Brady that the offense has to stay on the field. If you don't believe me look at the numbers. The Bills, due to many of the later games being blowouts and having to play from behind they only avg 24.4 carries a game, which was 6th worst, Ariz, Indy, Tenn, Det and TB had fewer. To put some perspective on that the league leader last year in atts per game was Denver and Houston at 34.1. The league average is right around 28 atts per game so we were below the average BUT the yds per att. was 4.9 yds which was tied for 4th best behind Car, Minn and Philly. What does that all mean you ask? IMO wheter they were "passing to set up the run or running to set up the pass" they ran the ball very effectively with two different RB's and with more stability on D, I would imagine they are planning on running it more (not to mention a full offseason with B. Smith and the wildcat potential).

Second and something that drives me crazy is everyone talking about the dink and dunk offense that we ran last year built on timming and speed. Last time I heard this as a definition it was called the West Coast offense which many people were in love with. Now I'm not saying that we are a west coast system but some of the schemes and philosophies seem to be the same, get the ball to the WR in space early and let him make plays and the overall concept according to Bill Walsh is that over the course of a 60 min ballgame you are going to weardown the D and be able to make more plays. Due to a porus D and having to play catch or keep up this wasn't always the case last yr.

Third is Buddy's press conference where he said "I don't know why you guys don't believe us" (I think Brian already addressed this). The reason I say this is now I have heard him at least two times say that they like the WR's that they have and they feel they can line up with them and be productive. I would think that his actions over the past two yrs have backed up everything that he has said as far as how he is going to build this team (besides the wins of course). I also believe that Meecham was low balled a contract and if he took it great if not oh well.

And last and most important is that there is only ONE ball on the field every play and an offense over the course of the season will get roughly 1035 plays or 64.5 plays a game. If you break that down a little more, I have to imagine that with emergence of CJ and the stability of Fred in the backfield that Chan is going to set a goal of running the ball at least 28 times a game. In a perfect world that would be FJ 18 carries and CJ 10. That leaves 36.5 plays a game for passes or kneel downs!!!!! If we say that Fitz with a full offseason and traing camp improves his completion percentage from 61% to 65% (which would put him top 5 in league last yr) that equals 23.7 comp. a game or 379.2 for the season. If we break that down a little further to average by position or personnel that means that our #1 WR (SJ) should avg 6 catches PG/ or 96 for season, or slot WR (DN and RP or ME) 5 PG/ 80 for season, TE (SC, LS, KB) (I see an increase this yr) 4.5 PG/ 72 for season and RB's (FJ, CJ, and?) 5 PG/ 80 for season. That means that in a yr that Fitz would have a high completion percentage that there would be 51 catches or a little over 3 a game.

I know some of you are going to say that if we had a stud WR that could stretch the field we would throw it to him more often for more receptions which sounds great in theory but it's a high risk high reward type play and not one of QB's srengths. What most of you are yelling for is someone to stretch the filed so it opens up the underneath stuff for the other WR's and TE's. Does this mean that you don't like the short pass offense or that you want to throw it deep every play, which carries a lower completion percenatge? I guess what I'm getting at is that I find it hard to imagine that the Bills brass are going to spend a number 1 draft pick on a decoy! Especially when I feel we have that decoy on the team already in Donald Jones.

Now before all of you yell at me or roll your eyes hear me out. DJ is a WR going into his 3rd yr (which people say is when WR's come of age) who came out of a small school in Youngstown State. Last yr if you remember he was thrown into the starting line up in the final preseason game because of the Lee Evans trade and Marcus Easly getting sick. Without any offseason or reps during training camp, in 7 (actually played 8 but got hurt early in the game) games he caught 23 balls (3 per game) with one TD. I know that most of you are gonna say from last year that he can't catch, I understand that but if you remember his non catches or drops were on deep balls that he had beaten or stretched the D. I would also argue that some of those drops were due to inexperience and lack of reps which we would get more of this offseason.

So in my humble opinion I think that a WR at #10 is a waste and I would like to see them continue to upgrade both lines early and often. My dream draft would be Matt Kalli out of USC but that is another post for another day. Well thats it I apologize for the length but hopefully this will give people another perspective on the draft a WR bandwagon. Let me have it!


Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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