Much discussion has been made recently about how the Bills
would be advised to trade down and pick up a few extra picks. And, logic would state that if there is little difference between the player in your current slot and the player a few slots down, you should trade down. I am here to say that this move would be counter-productive, and this can be easily seen when looking at the players selected after a trade down in recent drafts. The result have been consistent: the player you ignored becomes far more successful than the player you traded down to choose.
Here are some recent examples…
Cleveland, in 2011, traded out of the 6 spot. They eventually selected DT Phil Taylor. The lost out on WR Julio Jones.
New England, in 2011, traded out of the 28 spot. They eventually selected RB Shane Vereen
with the 2nd round pick they recieved. They lost out on RB Mark Ingram.
Cleveland, in 2009, traded 3 times, abandoning the 5, 17, and 19 slots. The players were Sanchez, Freeman, and Jeremy Maclin
. They eventually chose Alex Mack
and Mohammed Massoquoi.
Other examples include: Houston missed out on Flacco (or possibly Otah, Talib, Felix Jones
or Chris Johnson - who were all selected right after Flacco) and instead got Duane Brown
; the Ravens
ignored Tebow (and Dan Williams
, McCourty, Odrick) in favor of getting Sergio Kindle
; the Patriots
avoided Dez Bryant
in favor of getting Devin McCourty
There are very few examples in recent years that show the team who traded down getting the better value. Since 2008, the only "franchise" player I saw who was selected after trading down was when the Patriots traded down and got Jerod Mayo
In general, the rule seems to state: it’s better to stay where you are, or get a bargain trading up (as we did in 2008 trading back up to grab Levitre in the 2nd round).
The additional logic behind trading down is that we would be able to add a few prospects in the later rounds. This, too, is flawed logic in my view. We have had very little success in the middle rounds in recent years. In 2010, we selected Easley and Ed Wang
with our 4th and 5th round picks. Last year, it was Searcy and White. These players were all special teams players and depth. To miss out on the 10th best player in the draft in order to get a lesser player and a special teams player doesn't sound good to me. Nor does it sound like Buddy's style.
I want to say I am firmly of the opinion that Buddy should stick to his board. Don't risk losing on a starting caliber player because he may or may not be available 5 or 10 pics later.
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.