Good morning Rumblers,
It's been a long time, but I've been really busy. I'm glad to be back.
Okay, during my sabbatical I had some time to think about our offseason plans and I finally think I figured it out. Now some people listen to Buddy Nix, and try to piece information together to determine what direction we are going in, but Ole Buddy reminds of a used car salesman (sorry billsoferie), you really can't trust anything he says. However, his actions speak louder than words.
I have successfully figured out the positions we are targeting in FA and narrowed down the positions that we will be drafting in the 1st round come April.
Check out how I came to my conclusion.
Okay, so here we go.
Draft (Positions Not Picking)
QB- Sorry folks, there is no way Buddy is drafting a QB in this year 1st round. Luck and RGIII is too expensive, and Tannehill is not ready to come in and start day 1. ACTION- The signing of Stevie Johnson completely ended this notion. The chemistry that both he and Fitz has is the main reason why Stevie got resigned.
RB/FB- Nope, not happening. Richardson is the only RB that seems worthy of a top 10 pick and we are crowded in the backfield. ACTION- drafting Spiller two seasons ago and trading Lynch, but still starting FredEx. Sorry, a 3 back system doesn't work in the NFL. Thunder, Lighting, and Rain...nah, no thanks.
WR- No Floyd or Blackmon. More than likely, Floyd will be there but the Bills won't draft a WR at 10. Even if Blackmon slips, I don't see us making that pick. We have tons of young WR's who the team seems high on and still need to prove themselves. If we draft a WR at 10, he will have to come in right way and jump ahead of Jones, Easley, Nelson, and Clowney. ACTION- the recent interest in Vincent Jackson proves to me that Nix wants a veteran guy opposite of Stevie, and will rely on his young WR's for depth.
TE- I won't spend time on this at all, we all know TE won't even be considered a possible pick at 10.
CB- Nope, we're not drafting a CB either. No Kirkpatrick, Claiborne, or Jenkins. Why? We have 3 young CB's now, Williams, Rogers, and McKelvin. If we bring in a young CB at 10, he will be expected to be at least the number one or two CB, which means we will be really be inexperienced in the secondary with Williams playing on the other side, ACTION- Bringing in Routt validates my point. They are obviously looking for Drayton replacement, as they will cut him to free up cap space.
FS/SS- Nah, no safety worthy it at 10. Barron and Harrison are great players that I would love to see in Bills Blue, but it won't happen. Plus, the only possible upgrade the team can be looking to make is at SS, and before Wilson got hurt, one can argue that he was a Defensive MVP Candidate. Byrd is a beast, so no upgrade there. ACTION- Drafting Searcy validates this point, Safety will not be the pick in the 1st round.
LB- Ohh shucks, sorry LB lovers. No Kuechly, Hightower, or any OLB. To draft a guy at 10, means you expect him to start day one. We are set at WLB and MLB, but we do have a hole at SLB. However, we won't be drafting any of those hybrid OLB/DE types. Switching back to the 4-3 eliminates the need for a SLB to put his hand in the dirt. The SLB will be expected to be strong enough to play over the TE for run support, and athletic enough to cover. As we saw at the combine, Upshaw struggles as a LB and he's more of a LDE and his running mate HIghtowr isn't rated as a top 10 pick. ACTION- Pursing Kirk Morrison as a possible SLB replacement. We will definitely upgrade SLB in free agency.
DT- Sorry, no Poe, Cox, Brockers, or Still. We are loaded at the DT position. Dareus and Meatball will be the anchor .up the middle. To draft a DT, will be a luxury pick we can't afford right now. ACTION- drafting Dareus and signing meatball to that fat contract.
Okay, so that narrows it down to 3 positions; OT, DE, and OG.
1st Choice OT- This will be the pick in my opinion if Bell doesn't resign. Bell is the linchpin of this whole thing; if he signs, OT will not be the pick. We have a young and improving LT, with a young 4th round pick in Hairston. If he doesn't resign, there isn't a FA LT out there that Nix would prefer to have then Bell. ACTION- Signing Stevie and pursing Jackson, leads me to believe that Chan and Nix wants to start taking more shots downfield. No better way than drafting a stud LT.
2nd Choice DE- No Coples, Upshawe or Perry. If Coples slip to 10, I don't see this as the pick and it's not because of his supposive motor issues. It's because he's a LDE, and there is no way this regime is going to bench Kelsay. This holds true for Upshaw. This means, we are in need of a RDE. Perry or Ingram can play this role, but Perry can be had in the middle of the round, making Ingram as the logical choice at 10. ACTION- signing Kelsay to that ridiculous contract, and signing Merriman (LDE on passing downs) elimiantes the need for a LDE. There is a hole at RDE, leaving only two options (Ingram and Perry).
3rd Choice OG- This is a sleeper pick and maybe the best pick once all is said and done. Folks, both Urbik and Rhinehart are FA's, Wood inability to stay healthy, requires a guy like Urbik to slide to C, creating holes up the middle ACTION- the benching of Levitre during the preseason, contract situation at G, and Woods health all raises questions. OG might be the play here. DeCastro might be our guy at 10.
Draft Summary: OT will be the pick if Bell doesn't resign. Look for Martin from Stanford to be the pick. If he doesn't resign, I see us drafting Ingram if available. If Ingram isn't available, I see us drafting DeCastro or trading back to pick up Perry.
FA Summary: We will sign a veteran CB, WR, and SLB. DE will not be targeting in FA, as the price tags will be too high and one can be found in the later rounds if need be.
There you have it, what you think?