FanPost

A Different Way To Look At The Draft

I love spreadsheets; the nerd in me seeks opportunities to dump data into Excel and watch it compile. Everyone has their own view of the draft, who is likely to be taken where. Mock drafts - not ours, various beat draftniks and writers - have different guys going in a variety of places. Michael Floyd, for example, is seen as going anywhere from the top 10 to the low 20s. I was curious where the average writer thought he'd go. Averages, Excel, spreadsheets....ahhhhhhh.

I found mocks by 4 writers on NFL.com (Reuter, Baldinger, Brooks, Davis), Walter football, SI, draft countdown, drafttek, 5 writers on usatoday.com (Bell, Corbet, DAvis, Rang, Bunting) and Schrager at foxsports. I looked at 160 prospects listed on those 15 total mocks, and where they were taken on the various mocks. (Only a couple of mocks went to 160 while most were only 1 or 2 rounds.) I had Excel then average the slots each guy was selected and came up with the chart below the jump.

For the sake of simplicity, I've pasted (hopefully) only those guys who were taken (by average) in slot 100 or higher.

1

QB luck

2

QB griffin III

3.4

OT Kalil

4.866667

RB richardson

5.533333

CB claiborne

5.6

WR blackmon

6.6

QB tannehill

10.73333

OT reiff

10.8

DE ingram

12.13333

DE Coples

12.6

LB kuechly

13.73333

DT Cox

14.26667

OG decastro

14.92857

DT poe

15

WR floyd

18.46667

SS barron

18.8

DT Brockers

19.2

CB Kirkpatrick

20.33333

LB Upshaw

20.46667

CB Gilmore

20.66667

OT Glenn

20.73333

DE Mercillus

20.78571

OT Martin

21.9

DE McClellin

24.30769

OT Adams

24.76923

WR Wright

25.36364

CB Jenkins

25.5

DT Still

26.41667

WR Hill

26.72727

DE Perry

27.9

DE Branch

29.08333

LB Hightower

30.25

DT Worthy

30.33333

TE Fleener

31.22222

C Konz

37.6

RB David Wilson

37.83333

DT Reyes

38

QB Weeden

38.85714

G Zeitler

39.4

WR Jeffery

39.5

CB Dennard

39.5

CB Josh Robinson

39.77778

DE Chan Jones

41

LB Zach Brown

41.16667

FS Harrison Smith

41.8

LB Lavonte David

43.5

LB Wagner

43.83333

WR Randle

44

RB Doug Martin

44.5

RB Lamar Miller

44.66667

CB Hosley

48

OT Massie

48

WR Quick

49.25

LB Kendricks

50

DE Irvin

52.75

G Silatolu

53.5

TE Dwayne Allen

54

OT Sanders

54.75

WR Sanu

56.75

DE Curry

56.75

DT Brandon Thompson

57

G Osemele

58.5

WR Criner

59

DT Ta'amu

60.33333

DE Crick

60.5

DE Ronnell Lewis

61

OT James Brown

63.25

QB Cousins

64

DT Fangupo

64.33333

OT Schwartz

65

DT Winn

65.33333

CB Boykin

66

WR McNutt

66.66667

RB LaMichael James

68

OT Jeff Allen

69

RB Polk

70

WR Broyles

70.25

QB Osweiler

71

LB Carder

72

C Ben Jones

74

DT Chapman

75

DT Mike Martin

75

LB Cole

75.33333

CB Trumaine Johnson

75.5

CB Bentley

77

CB Bolden

77.5

WR Marvin Jones

78

CB Hayward

78

WR Givens

79

S Markell Martin

79.66667

OT Mosley

80

DE Cam Johnson

80

G Brooks

85

DE Bequette

87.5

DE Massaquoi

88

LB Demario Davis

88

RB Pead

89

DT Crawford

89.5

OT Bergstrom

89.66667

S Iloka

91

LB Bradham

92

RB Turbin

93

WR Childs

94

TE Egnew

95

LB Spence

96

WR Toon

96.33333

OT McCants

97

TE Charles

97.5

C Blake

98.5

CB Norman

98.5

G Brandon Washington

99

CB Judie

99

RB Pierce

100

CB Leonhard Johnson

Assuming the chart actually pastes (iffy proposition) the top 6 guys (Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne, Blackmon) are almost universally seen as the first 6 names who will be called on draft day. But look at right after those top 6. Tannehill averages 6.6 for a draft slot....and then the list becomes a muddle. 16 guys are in the range from 10.7 to 20.8. This says to me that there isn't much agreement among the mock drafters as to who is going to be chosen from 7 to about 20.

Some thoughts about particular guys:

  • Tannehill is a favorite pick for Miami. I think that alone makes it likely that he's gone by the time the 8th pick rolls around. Any team wanting the guy has to worry about Miami taking him. Meanwhile, Miami could give up a 3rd to St Louis to get him if he is their target-not because the Rams will take him but because the Rams might trade #6 to a team that will.
  • Mock drafters like OT Reiff (10.7) quite a bit better than Glenn or Martin (20s). Taken as a whole, the mock drafters believe that Reiff represents value for Buffalo....and he meets a need as well. OT Adams (24) is viewed by the mock drafters as a late first round pick, Brian's pick notwithstanding. (Brian was the only guy who picked Adams before the 20s.
  • Of the guys slotted from 10-15 Reiff and Floyd are the only two guys who make sense for Buffalo other than possibly Kuechly. Ingram, Coples, Poe and Cox really aren't good candidates for Buffalo given that the defensive line is such a strength, and so is the interior of the offensive line which makes Decastro unlikely.
  • Jenkins, who is reportedly not even on some draft boards, is slotted even after OT Adams.
  • The Jets are going to get themselves a good defensive player if the slotting is anywhere close to accurate.
  • Hightower is the 32nd guy on this ‘board'. Worthy, Fleener, Zach Brown, Harrison Smith are among the guys I really thought who would average higher draft slots.
  • Dwayne Allen is slotted at 53.5. There are no other TEs (other than Fleener at 30.3) before the 90s. If Buffalo wants a TE there really aren't many early round options according to the mock draft consensus.
  • Decastro must be seen as a beast; he's the only interior offensive lineman slotted about 30.
  • Man, I hope Buffalo trades down. The value, as I see it, is in trading into the late teens or early 20s and getting a guy like Glenn or Adams for the line or Hill or Fleener for Fitz.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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