A FEW UPDATES:
Peter King's mock came out - giving the Bills Michael Floyd, but he thinks the Bills should pick Mark Barron. To quote "Buffalo will break the Cardinals' hearts by stealing Floyd to pair with Stevie Johnson and give quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick a true second weapon and bona fide deep threat. But I'd rather have the kind of enforcer in the secondary that so many teams covet. The 6'1", 213-pound Barron is a player whom multiple teams will try to trade up to get. "
The two most popular picks, and two most mocked players to the Bills are Floyd and Reiff - yet it appears that neither player has visited with the Bills. What does this mean? According to Brian, Dareus did visit the Bills. However there are mixed reports on Spiller - he was scheduled to visit but didn't actually visit with the Bills. For all we know they might have secretly visited. How much this plays into the draft - IDK - but we will find out soon.
I am almost happy the draft is almost here - all these mocks, and arguments, and waiting is driving me nuts. I just want the season to start so we can start watching Mario Williams get sacks, Fitz throw TD passes to Stevie Johnson, and Freddy/Spiller running all over the field. With that being said I'll give my last little draft 2 cents.
Think you guys will enjoy the read
Here is the link to my consensus big board - so you can get an idea of what players fall where - 2012 NFL Draft Big Board - and here is a link to my most recent mock 2012 NFL Mock Draft (which i plan to update on the weekend).
What to do at #10?
Who wont be there? As the draft approaches it is clear there are 6 elite players that will be gone before 10. Those players are Andrew Luck, RGIII, Morris Claiborne, Trent Richardson, Matt Kalil, and Justin Blackmon.
Looking at the first 9 picks
Colts - Andrew Luck (QB)
Really nothing here to think about.
Redskins - RGIII (QB)
Really nothing here to think about.
Minnesota Vikings - ??? - Morris Claiborne (CB) - LSU
What on earth are the Minnesota Vikings thinking? Could they possibly skip on Matt Kalil? Are they blowing a smoke screen? Are they hoping for a monster trade deal similar to the one's the Rams and Colts received? Are they toying with the Rams for them to move up? Who knows - none of us. We have no idea what is going to happen. Adam Schefter is almost convinced that the Vikings will skip on Matt Kalil and pick Justin Blackmon. Others think its Morris Claiborne.
I think the Vikings would be absolutely foolish to pass on Matt Kalil. He is a franchise LT. He will protect Ponder's blindside for the next 10 years. Secondly - there is a deep WR class so the Vikings can always get a WR in the 2nd+ rounds. Claiborne and Blackmon are both special players. Given the passing nature of the league all three picks are at play. But I don't even think the Vikings should question this. So here is the deal. Last year around this time - no one thought the Broncos would go after Von Miller. But leading into the draft the understanding became around the NFL that the Broncos will take Von Miller - clearly that has paid off. This year - the Vikings will take Morris Claiborne. Why? Because they have to defend Rodgers, Stafford, and Cutler. Their secondary is a mess. Frazier is a former defensive coordinator. Looks like Ponder will have to survive another year with out a weapon and protection..
Cleveland Brown - Justin Blackmon (WR) - Oklahoma St.
This pick is up for sale for someone who wants the remaining elite players on the Board. What teams have the fire power to move up? That would be the Bengals, Eagles, and Patriots. The players to target would be Kalil, Tannehill and Richardson. Bengals could target Richardson, or Kalil. Eagles don't need to invest in either but could be interested in Tannehill. The Patriots don't need Tannhill, nor Richardson - but could target a guy like Kalil. For now I'll leave the Browns here. Secondly - there are a few things going on in the front office. Some people love Blackmon, some people love Trent Richardson. Regardless of the fact that Richardson is the best player available, the NFL is a passing league, and the Browns lack a #1 receiver - regardless of who plays QB (and yes I do believe they will draft one in the first round this year)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Trent Richardson (RB) - Bama
This is another really tough pick for me. The new HC is obsessed with Trent Richardson - and LaGarrete Blount has been causing issues. I love Blount but he is no in means an elite player. Richardson could improve this offense from day one. What I love about Richardson is how balanced he is. He can pass block, run between the tackles, run outside the tackles, take it the distance, catching coming out of the backfield. AKA he does it all. I think they are happy with Penn at LT - and go with Richardson
St. Louis Rams - Matt Kalil (LT)
I am not even going to explain this pick
Jacksonville Jaguars - Stephen Gilmore (CB) - South Carolina
In my opinion the Jaguars are the toughest team to mock in the top 10. Gene Smith has a very particular player he seeks. I am down to two prospects. Stephen Gilmore (who the Jaguars are obsessed with) and Melvin Ingram. Ingram can solve the pass rush needs that the Jaguars have been seeking for quite sometime. He is a versatile player with great upside. He can play inside, outside, and has shown production at the college level. But there is also a big need at CB. And Gilmore fits the Gene Smith bill. People will say he is being "over-drafted" - but if you like a player and think he is right for the organization and performs as such - I do not necessarily believe its an over-draft. Remember Tyson Alualu.
Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill (QB) - Texas AM
The Dolphins are still trying to find a franchise QB. The Miami fanbase will be furious with the pick because they will think Tannehill is not their guy. They missed out on Manning, and Matt Flynn. But I really like Tannehill. And I think he has monster upside. The Dolphins don't need to start him - Garrard and Moore are their to hold ship as he develops. And the connection with Mike McCarthy cannot be ignored.
Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox (DT) - Mississippi St
I don't think there is too much to debate here. There are two things the Panthers could do. They could select Cox, or they could go with Kirkpatrick for the secondary. Cox has become the consensus top DT in the draft. He is a "safe" prospect. He is the penetrating, quick footed type of DT that the Panthers desperately need to build their defensive line around.
What do the Buffalo Bills do at 10? Well first lets start with who the options are (In order of how they are presented on the consensus big board)
Melvin Ingram (DE) - South Carolina
Just because we loaded up at the defensive line position in the off season, doesn't mean the front office won't take another defensive lineman - especially if they think he is the BPA. Remember when they took CJ Spiller? He was the BPA and we have both Lynch and Jacskson on our roster. Ingram is a speed rusher, and the perfect compliment to Mario Williams. Will he be the pick? I don't think so.
Michael Floyd (WR) - Notre Dame
I am beyond obsessed with Michael Floyd. The more tape I watch, the more obsessed I become. Here is a MUST READ ARTICLE by Greg Cossel comparing Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd - Floyd vs Blackmon. It is clear to all Bills fans that the Bills need someone to play opposite Stevie Johnson to help open up the offense. Floyd absolutely could fit the bill.
David DeCastro (G) - Stanford
As awesome as DeCastro is, and as much of a need we have on the offensive line - its not in the interior. Furthermore, the guard position is not this highly valued in the NFL anymore. Will he be the pick? Probably not
Luke Kuechley (LB) - BC
I am not going to discuss Luke much - Brian has spent plenty of time writing an article that I think everyone should read. I love Luke, I love what he brings to a team. Could he be the pick? Absolutely
Riley Reiff (OT) - Iowa
I am not going to go into this pick. There are some great fan posts regarding Reiff. The Bottom line is this - he can absolutely positively play LT. He is NFL ready and he fills a HUGE need. What are the issues? I cannot ignore Buddy Nix history of drafting offensive lineman, and Chan Gailey's history of LT's he's dealt with. Furthermore - I can't ignore the fact the does fit this "apparent measurement" the front office looks for in an offensive lineman. But could he still be the pick? Absolutely.
Mark Barron (SS) - Alabama
Our current starting strong safety is George Wilson. Don't get me wrong - I love George Wilson. Behind wilson is D. Searcy. On the FS side we are fine with Byrd, who is backed up however by Bryan Scott. Clearly there is a lack of depth. As the draft approaches Barron's stock has been increasing day by day. He is the total package at the SS position. He can do it all. Scouts love him. What his videos. He can really help the the defensive secondary on every level. He is a safe prospect, with a clean background, and excellent coaching. Could he be the pick? Absolutely.
Dre Kirkpatrick (CB) - Alabama
Another Alabama product has widely been considered as the 2nd rated CB in this year's draft. Kirkpatrick is a big player - and gives us the size we need in the secondary to cover the bigger receivers. His stock his slipped slightly - but more so Gilmore's stock has increased. My issue is we resigned McGhee, we still have Florence and McKelvin, and Aaron Williams is our starting corner on one side. But I don't count Kirk out. Could he be the pick? Absolutely?
I am sick of reading - who will be the pick already? I think the pick will come down to three players - Michael Floyd (WR), Riley Reiff (T), and Mark Barron (SS). Ultimately, The Buffalo Bills will select Michael Floyd with their 10th overall pick. Floyd brings a new dimension to our offense. The thought of having him play opposite Steve Johnson should have opposing defenses scared. Plus they have to be wary of blitzes because they need to worry about covering two big receivers. We have some great slot receivers on our roster, and others that will fit into 3, 4, 5 WR packages. I like Reiff a lot. But if we passed on Bulaga, why would we choose Reiff now?
OK - What about the other rounds?
2nd round: Bobby Massie (OT) - Mississippi (6'6'' 316lb, 5.23, 22, 35")
Depending on who falls and who is available, the Bills will need to fill the need at OT. There are a few players I really like at this point that can fill the void. Offensive Tackles like Bobbie Massie, Kelechi Osemele, Zebrie Sanders, and Mitichell Schwartz fill our need. So i feel comfortable taking a high impact player like Floyd in the first knowing the crop of offensive tackles that could be available to us at the top of the 2nd
3rd round: Josh Robinson (CB) - Central Florida
I'm not sure who the specific player picked could be - but no this Bills fans - the CB class this year is very deep. So we will get a good corner in the 3rd round. There are a whole host of defensive backs that will be available here to be taken - check out my consensus bigboard to find out others
Onto the draft my fellow Bills fans -Moose