Hello fellow Rumblers!
The trade: as the title of this post indicates the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals agree to a major swap of their draft positions. Here is how I see it working:
Long time reader, first time poster. This year more than any other I have been pretty infatuated with the pre-draft chatter. It has become an escape for me actually, lol. Between last year’s promising start, free agent pick-ups and ease of schedule this coming year I am as optimistic about our Bills as I have been in over a decade. I have been reading every mock draft posted, team needs, team philosophies etc… recently I have become a bit obsessed with one trade scenario that I wanted to share. Before I move on, I want to go on record stating that I realize this scenario actually occurring is extremely low… that being said I think it is fun to consider and build a very logical (I hope) case around this possibility. Here it is, look forward to all your thoughts and opinions on this scenario:
Buffalo Bills receive from Bengals:
Pick 17 (950pts)
Pick 21 (800pts)
Pick 149 (31.8pts, first 5th round pick for Bengals, they have three 5th round picks this year!)
Total Draft Position Value: 1,781.8
Cincinnati Bengals receive from Bills:
Pick 10 (1,300pts)
Pick 41 (490pts)
Total Draft Position Value: 1,790 (Bills give up 8.2pts in order to have 2 first round picks)
(Possibly a more realistic scenario would be Bengals pick 17 and 53 for Bills 10 but I am going with the above swap because it is a bit more exciting, albeit less realistic)
Rationales and potential use of first round picks:
Bills: There has been much discussion about lack of value at number 10 for the Bills. Additionally some of the most popular picks for the Bills at 10 have character or skill set concerns. Bills may see much higher value moving back in the first round. Buddy Nix Quote: "I never have liked to, and I never have traded picks. I hate giving them up. I like to get them. We've got nine, and I'd like to wind up with ten, and we'll see how that goes." (March 1) Well, I get that he does not like trading "away" picks however this scenario gets him an additional (11th) pick and potentially more value at the top of the draft.
Bengals: While there may be other possible players to build this scenario around I am going to focus on one likely possibility… Michael Floyd being available at the 10 spot. While I realize this is not a lock I believe there is a good probability that Floyd is available at 10. Very simply put, the Bengals have had Floyd in for a pre-draft visit and the Bills have not. Additionally, the Bengals are very well known for not worrying about character issues and the Bills are very well known for caring deeply about character issues. (Side note, I would be fine with Floyd as the Bills pick at 10, but no pre-draft visit probably equals no Floyd in Buffalo.)
Bottom Line: I think Floyd being available at pick 10 creates a serious win/win scenario for both the Bills and Bengals. Bengals are on record for wanting/prioritizing a WR to line up across from A.J. Green. There is pretty sound logic for both teams agreeing to this trade.
Finally, while I am not going to try and predict who the Bills select at 17 and 21 let me just say this… the following players have had a pre-draft visit to Buffalo and all of them have a chance (and be decent value) to be available at 17 and/or 21:
OT – Jonathan Martin, Mike Adams, Cordy Glenn
CB – Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick
S – Mark Barron
LB – Dont’a Hightower
DE – Whitney Mercilus, Chandler Jones
QB – Brock Osweiler
*Right now, if it pans out, I think Gilmore at 17 and Glenn at 21 would be my favorite outcome.
I think any one from any two of these positions that OBD has highest on their board would make most of us pretty excited. So thanks for reading my first and rather lengthy post. I have been thinking long and hard about my favorite draft scenario and I believe this is it (however unlikely it may be). Look forward to hearing your comments and opinions.