On a selfish note, please consider recommending this so it won't get buried under the avalanche of draft fanposts sure to hit the site in the next day or two.... It can help those who are writing those fanposts base them on a fairly realistic formula.
In the past Nix has said that he just likes to be lazy on draft day, standing pat and picking guys who are the top of the board. He's made some comments recently about possibly trading down. In 2010 Nix tried to trade back into the first. Of all the things that he's said and done possibly the most important was when Nix said he was a born liar this time of the year. In short, no one knows what Buffalo will do on Thursday.
The Bills have three basic options: trade up (from 10 or back into the first round), stand pat, or trade down. I'm well known as a guy who loves to look at the possibilities of trades-down more than up. MarioTheBill commented in a story about Buffalo's desire to trade down that mock drafts with 47 different trade down scenarios would soon hit the front page. This one doesn't have quite that many.....
I looked at the draft value chart before the 2011 draft and found that it became more - not less - relevant over time. The 2011 draft, the first to feature a rookie pay scale, may have been an outlier or may have been the shape of things to come. In 2011, teams moving up "paid" about 10% over chart value. I'll stick with that for this article. I'm also sticking to the draft pick slots without considering compensatory picks, the Saints' penalty or the Raiders' supplemental pick.
I'll start with Jacksonville, a team that has floated rumors about trading down as well. Say that a player that CHIX views as elite falls to #7 and that also plays a position of dire need. Think Claiborne or Kalil. While Nix has said that he hates to give up picks (and that he's a liar...) it is conceivable that Buffalo might be tempted to move up to #7.
Trade possibility: #7, 4th and 5th for #10, 2nd
Again, I think it would take someone CHIX regarded as really special to inspire a move up the board. Also, there would be the natural aversion of dealing with a division foe. It would be cheaper for the Bills, though.
Trade possibility: #8 for #10 and 3rd
I can't imagine the Bills needing to move up just one slot but say that Blackmon fell to 9 or that the Bills were worried someone else would trade up and snatch Floyd.
Trade possibility #9 and 4th for #10 and 3rd
As with the Panthers, I don't see the Chiefs trying to move up just one spot. If they're targeting a guy like Decastro it's not likely that Buffalo would take him. The Bills could, however, trade the pick to someone who would take a guy the Chiefs covet.
Trade possibility #10 and 5th for #11 and 3rd
Seattle has no 5th round pick, thanks to Buffalo. Pete Carroll has shown that he's willing to throw around draft picks with an abandon. The Seahawks are one of the wild cards on draft day.
Trade possibility #10 for #12, 3rd and 6th
This would really limit Seattle's options in terms of numbers of picks-no 3rd, 5th or 6th. Another possibility, one that would leave Seattle with more selections, including a pair of third rounders...
Trade possibility #10, 3rd and 6th for #12 and 2nd
Arizona has no second round pick and has only an extra 6th. This makes them a poor candidate for trading up to #10. However, if they just had to do it they would need to essentially give Buffalo everything they have in 2012 to do it. All to move up 3 slots.
Trade possibility #10 for #13, 3rd, 4th, 5th.
Jerr-uh Jones loves to work the board and has a history of trading with Buffalo. Yes, the Cowboys bent over Buffalo so the Bills could take on JP Losman. It would be nice to get some retribution....
Trade possibility #10, 4th and 5th for #14, 2nd
Andy Reid is probably still shaking his head over Buffalo's refusal to trade picks back in the Jauronian Era when the Bills passed up the obvious pick (Ngata) for some guy who now plays in San Fran. The Eagles are always busy on draft day.
Trade possibility #10 both 5th for #15 and 2nd
While I'm not prone to trying to add scenarios that involve players, the Eagles are trying to divest themselves of Asante Samuel-one of the INT leaders in the NFL. They're reportedly willing to take what they can get since they don't want to pay Samuel. The Bills still have some cap room and a real need at CB so....
Trade possibility #10, 4th and 5th for #15 and 2nd and Samuel
I can't imagine New Jersey shipping picks to Buffalo. Someone that Ryan just had to have would have to be on the board at 10, perhaps unexpectedly, and likely to be taken between 11-13. It's improbable but....
Trade possibility #10 for #16 and 2nd
The Bengals are one of the teams that has the juice to move up the board with ease. The team has found a QB and a stud WR. The question is whether the Bills will be fortunate enough for someone Marvin ‘Rasputin' Lewis just has to have.
Trade possibility #10, 3rd, 4th, 5th for #17 and #21.
Another way to go about the trade would be for the Bengals to keep #21 and instead go with...
Trade possibility #10, 4th for #17, 2nd, 3rd
The Chargers are no longer the only team in the AFC West with a real QB. Palmer was effective in Oakland and Manning may be back to form in Denver. Whether they want to get after the QB with a guy like Ingram, score points with a guy like Floyd or protect Rivers with the second OT off the board...
Trade possibility #10, 4th for #18, 2nd, 3rd
You can see that it's getting really costly to move up to #10 from the late teens. This makes it less and less likely to swing a deal, at least for 2012 picks.
Trade possibility #10, 5th for #19, 2nd, 3rd
It's hard to imagine the Titans flying up the board for just about any player, except for perhaps Kalil.
Trade possibility #10 for #20, 2nd, 3rd, 5th
Holmgren knows how to work the draft board. With a pick at #4 it's entirely possible that the Browns would be willing to pay the freight to move back up to #10. Making the move easier is the value of their 2nd round pick-not typical of teams picking in the early 20s.
Trade possibility #10 for #22, 2nd, 4th, 5th
If the Bills are determined to get back into the end of the first round, the Browns would likely represent the first opportunity. Nix has said he doesn't like to give up picks (...and that he's a liar...) so I don't see it happening but...
Trade up possibility #22 for 2nd, 3rd, both 4th
The Lions might be the 2011 Falcons. They believe that they are very close to getting to the Super Bowl. If there is a player on the board at #10 who can think that they can get them over the top it's possible.
Trade possibility #10 for #23, #54 and 2013 2nd
Again, I don't see it but....
Trade up possibility #23 for 2nd, 3rd and both 4th
The Steelers seem to be a team on the brink of a dramatic free fall in terms of players. They still have a core of guys but the supporting players are aging and the team could bet the house to make another run before the decline.
Trade possibility #10 for #24, 4th and 2013 1st
If the Steelers decide to go more long term they might be open to getting more picks.
Trade up possibility #24 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
Denver has just added Manning, a terrific QB who is also a statue. The DBs are old by NFL standards. It may be time for Elway to make some draft day waves to take advantage of the limited QB window that is now available.
Trade possibility #10 for #26, 3rd, 2013 1st
On the other hand, the Broncos may be looking a bit more long term and be in the market for other picks
Trade up possibility #25 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Houston fielded a very good defense, though it has lost some guys like Mario Williams. Schaub should be back and the team could be in the same boat as the Lions-on the cusp but not quite there.
Trade possibility #10 for #26, 3rd, 2013 1st
Trade up possibility #26 for 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Dealing with the devil is touch and go. With that said, the Pats have the juice to do pretty much anything they want to on draft day. They have an extra 1st and 2nd though nothing after the 4th.
Trade possibility #10, both 4th for #27, #31 and last 2nd
The Pats love to trade down and have a couple of options for needy teams.
Trade up possibility #27 for 2nd, 3rd, 5th
Trade up possibility #31, 4th for 2nd and 3rd
Green Bay could be looking for an elite player, perhaps one who is available at #10. It's doubtful that they'd give up what it would take to leap up from 28 but....
Trade possibility #10 for #28, 2nd, 2013 1st
It's also hard to see Green Bay trading down but the price is falling to the point that Nix has reportedly been willing to pay it in the past...
Trade up possibility #28 for 2nd and 3rd
The Ravens front office is way to smart to do this:
Trade possibility #29, 2nd, 2012 1st
At the same time the team doesn't have a lot of holes so it could...
Trade up possibility #29, 5th for 2nd and 3rd
Unless Harbaugh has to have a particular Stanford OT that Brian seems to like for Buffalo I can't see the team looking to move up from 30 to 10.
Trade possibility #30, 2nd, 4th, 2013 1st
We're to the point in trading up that Nix could actually take a real interest. Swapping two picks for two picks means that the Bills retain the same number of selections with better positioning.
Trade up possibility #30, 4th for 2nd and 3rd
I don't know that the Giants have any need or inclination to move way up the board. If they did...
Trade possibility #10 for #32, 2nd, 3rd, 2013 1st
Getting the last guy before the start of the second round could been a boon to the team that exercises the 32nd selection.
Trade up possibility #30 for 2nd, both 4th, 5th
No, the Rams won't be trading up to #10. Buffalo could trade up to #33 however.
Trade up possibility #33 for 2nd, both 4th
Since the Rams also have another early second rounder...
Trade up possibility #39 for 2nd and later 4th
The team is in full on rebuild mode and could use extra selections.
Trade up possibility #34 for 2nd, both 4th
They're a hard team to figure but could look to trade down in the 2nd round just a few slots.
Trade up possibility #35 for 2nd, 4th, 5th
The Bucs are missing a 4th and have lots of holes.
Trade up possibility #36 for 2nd 4th, 5th
Cleveland doesn't need the picks but their front office could turn them into future draft picks.....
Trade up possibility #37 for 2nd, 4th
Yes, I know I did them already but that was Buffalo shooting up to #7.
Trade up possibility #38 for 2nd and 4th
As with the first round it's pretty unlikely the Bills will want to move up just one slot...
Trade up possibility #40 for 2nd and later 4th
There you have it, Bills fans. I think that actually came out to 45 different trade scenarios so I came pretty close to MarinoTheBills prediction. This should give you an idea of the kind of value the Bills would get from trading down and what it would cost to move up as well. Have at the mock drafts!