I tried, I really did. I just couldn't help myself.
The Chargers have reportedly been talking about making a trade up in the draft for Mark Barron. To get him, the theory goes, the Chargers would have to get ahead of Dallas. Because the Bills need guys capable of covering New England's two TE sets, San Diego might have to get Buffalo out of the #10 spot to make sure they get their man. Those inclined to pooh-pooh the idea of the Charges moving up the board are reminded that in 2010 the team moved up from #28 to #12 for a running back Ryan Mathews.
As discussed in my Monster Mock Draft Guide Post, fair value (assuming a 10% jump in value from the draft chart holds true through this draft) would be for the Bills to get #18, a 2nd and 3rd from the Chargers for #10 and a 4th rounder. If the Chargers gave all of those picks to Buffalo in 2012, they'd be left with Barron, a pair of 4ths, a 5th, 6th and a pair of 7th round picks. While that is 7 total picks, it represents just one shot at getting a guy the team is confident can make an immediate impact. I could instead see the Chargers instead offering their 1st and 3rd with the 2013 2nd and the Bill's countering by demanding the 1st and 2nd with the 2013 3rd. It's also possible that the Bills could go for a 1st and 2nd along with some player that Nix really likes, or 1st and 3rd for a player he just has to have. I can't think of any of those so we'll go with the 1st and 3rd with the 2013 2nd for the #10 and 4th because it's the most conservative view of the possible trade.
For the mock draft below (spoiler alert: it features a trade with the Chargers...) I've looked back on the post that I did about A Different Way To Look At The Draft. It's not a board but rather a compendium of mock drafts but I'll rely on it to a fair degree.
- Colts: QB Luck: Well, duh.
- Redskins: QB RGIII: They didn't mortgage the farm to pick a tackle
- Vikings: OT Kalil: He will help keep Ponder upright as well as give a boost to Peterson. Sometimes boring is the way to go.
- Browns: RB Richardson: Many think he's the drafts best player, an opinion no one seems to have of QB Tannehill.
- Cowboys: CB Claiborne: The Bucs have holes everywhere while Dallas got to watch the secondary get carved up in recent years...and knows RGIII is inbound. Tampa Bay cuts Dallas a deal (#5 for #14 and 2nd rounder plus a 2013 4th) to get more picks in order to fill more holes.
- Miami: QB Tannehill: The Dolphins' owner has reportedly said that he wants Tannehill. Jumping up two spots costs Miami a 3rd (possibly a little more) but ensures that no one will hop in front of them by trading with Jacksonville and scooping up the guy who they hope will be the QB of the future.
- Jaguars: WR Blackmon: The Jags want to trade back but the teams who are really hurting at WR are far enough back - and the depth at WR is good enough - that no one wants to pay the freight. Getting the consensus best WR in the draft isn't too punishing.
- Rams: OT Reiff: St Louis would have taken Blackmon if he'd fallen to #8 but the idea was instead to take an OT to replace the ineffective Jason Smith and add picks. Mission accomplished.
- Panthers: DT Cox: Carolina hangs up on Andy Reid, who has a history of trying to trade up for linemen he covets. (Think Ngata...)
- Chargers: S Barron: I kind of warned you this would happen. The Chargers have to keep Buffalo from taking him in addition to worrying about the Jets and others...
- Chiefs: OG Decastro: He's a popular pick for the Chiefs and for good reason. The Chiefs were able to run all over people and that worked well enough to take the division.
- Seahawks: DE Ingram: Seattle gets the first pass rusher off the board. OT is another need but the remaining OTs were picked in the 20s in the 15 mocks I looked at, not around 12th overall.
- Cardinals: WR Floyd: The Cardinals have to hope that Kolb didn't get Losman-ified during the 2011 campaign. Fitzgerald needs help to be effective and Floyd should fit the bill.
- Bengals: DE Coples: The Bengals have picks to burn and can use some edge rushers. The Bucs drop back again (to 17) and add a 3rd to go with the 2nd and 2013 4th in the Dallas trade.
- Eagles: LB Kuechly: The Eagles had a terrible LB unit in 2011. Adding Ryans in the offseason helps and Kuechly could ensure that the most glaring team weakness becomes a real strength. Not getting the deal with Carolina works out pretty well.
- Jets: DT Brockers: Ryan loves his linemen. Poe was picked about 4 slots ahead in the 15 mocks I looked at but I could see the Jets shying away from a guy who had a great combine.
- Bucs: CB Gilmore: Yes, Tampa finally makes a pick.
- Bills: OT Glenn: He's versatile (which Gailey likes), from the South (which Nix likes) and enormous (which CHIX likes). He also represents value, particularly with the 3rd that Buffalo picked up from San Diego in this draft and the 2nd in the next draft.
- Bears: WR Wright: The Bears add a receiver, which should help them stay competitive in the pass happy NFC North.
- Denver: DT Poe: Denver ships the Titans #25 and a 2nd for #20 and a 4th to pick a guy that many seem to think will go off the board much, much earlier in the 1st.
- Bengals: DE Mercillus: As stated above, the Bengals could use some edge rushers.
- Browns: CB Kirkpatrick: He may simply be the best player on Cleveland's board. QB is the most obvious need but with a pick early in the 2nd it's a good bet that the Browns won't have to reach for one.
- Lions: OT Martin: Keeping Stafford alive would be a good thing for Detroit's push towards a Super Bowl.
- Steelers: LB Upshaw: Yes, the Steelers need offensive linemen but we're talking Pittsburgh here.
- Titans: DE McClellin: The Flaming Thumbtacks drop back, acquire an extra 2nd and get a guy who they might have taken at 20. Well done.
- Bills: WR Hill: Buffalo ships a 2nd, original 3rd and 4th to Houston. The Bills do what the Chargers did-trade up to keep a team from possibly taking the guy they wanted.
So there it is, Bills fans. Buffalo exits the first round with OT Glenn and WR Hill, no 2012 second round pick, a lower 3rd round pick, one 4th, two 5th, one 6th, and two 7th round picks, along with San Diego's 2013 2nd rounder. The Bills ultimately have 9 picks but come away with two players at positions of need who had (?) first round grades.