Over at the Buffalo News Bills blog, Tim Graham just posted the Vegas lines for each Bills game in 2012. As I looked at the lines, I noticed how difficult of a stretch we'll have from Week 4-10, where we play four games against legitimate Super Bowl contenders, a road game on the West coast, and a home game against a team that isn't a pushover (NE, SF, AZ, TN, HOU, NE). To be fair, we have a bye week in there, which alleviates this stretch of games.
For discussions sake, I want to split the season into three segments.
Really Tough Stretch
Week 4 New England Patriots (Bills +5.5)
Week 5 at San Francisco 49ers (Bills +7.5)
Week 6 at Arizona Cardinals (Bills +3)
Week 7 Tennessee Titans (Bills -3.5)
Week 8 Bye
Week 9 at Houston Texans (Bills +7.5)
Week 10 at New England Patriots (Bills +11)
Home Stretch to the Playoffs
Week 11 Miami Dolphins (Bills -2.5)
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts (Bills -1)
Week 13 Jacksonville Jaguars (Bills -5.5)
Week 14 St. Louis Rams (Bills -6)
Week 15 Seattle Seahawks (Bills -3)
Week 16 at Miami Dolphins (Bills +3)
Week 17 New York Jets (no line)
My hope would be that we can win at least 2 games out of the first three, and go into the difficult middle stretch with a winning record. From there, honestly, I would be pretty happy with winning three of those six games. That would put us at 5-4 going into the final seven game stretch, where there isn't a game that seems completely un-winnable. It's quite possible that we could get 4 or 5 wins out of the last 7, which might land us a wild-card. The last seven weeks also include half of our AFC South opponents and half of our divisional games, which, again, means that solid play could leverage us into good position for the playoffs.
With that in mind, here's my question for you: what is the minimum amount of wins that you would be pleased with going into week 11?