FanPost

BNT (finding a qb)

It's easy to criticize Buddy Nix for failing to draft a promising developmental quarterback for our Bills future. No matter if you are a Fitzy believer or detractor, every single Rumbler agrees that they would have liked to see an exciting young prospect added to the roster by now. But how many chances has Buddy missed on? How does the Bills QB situation compare to the rest of the league?

In an effort to promote a fair discussion of Nix's track record on this matter, let's try to render the state of the league's QB's since Buddy took over. (from here on I'll call this time frame BNT=Buddy Nix's Tenure)

The first list shows all QB's drafted during BNT. The names in CAPS are the Bills players who were taken when the respective QB were available.


2012
RD SEL #
1 1 Andrew Luck QB Colts
1 2 Robert Griffin QB Redskins
1 8 Ryan Tannehill QB Dolphins
1 22 Brandon Weeden QB Browns GILMORE
2 57 Brock Osweiler QB Broncos GLENN
3 75 Russell Wilson QB Seahawks GRAHAM
3 88 Nick Foles QB Eagles GRAHAM
4 102 Kirk Cousins QB Redskins BRADHAM
6 185 Ryan Lindley QB Cardinals ASPER
7 243 B.J. Coleman QB Packers POTTER
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Colts POTTER

2011
RD SEL
1 1 Cam Newton QB Panthers
1 8 Jake Locker QB Titans DAREUS
1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB Jaguars DAREUS
1 12 Christian Ponder QB Vikings DAREUS
2 35 Andy Dalton QB Bengals WILLIAMS
2 36 Colin Kaepernick QB 49ers WILLIAMS
3 74 Ryan Mallett QB Patriots SHEPPARD
5 135 Ricky Stanzi QB Chiefs J WHITE
5 152 T.J Yates QB Texans J WHITE
5 160 Nathan Enderle QB Bears J WHITE
6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB Ravens C WHITE
7 208 Greg McElroy QB Jets ROGERS

2010
RD SEL #
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Rams
1 25 Tim Tebow QB Broncos SPILLER
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Panthers TROUP
3 85 Colt McCoy QB Browns CARRINGTON
4 122 Mike Kafka QB Eagles EASLEY
5 155 John Skelton QB Cardinals WANG
5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB Chargers WANG
6 176 Rusty Smith QB Titans MOATS
6 181 Dan LeFevour QB Bears BATTEN
6 199 Joe Webb QB Vikings BATTEN
6 204 Tony Pike QB Panthers BATTEN
7 209 Levi Brown QB Bills
7 239 Sean Canfield QB Saints CALLOWAY
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Patriots CALLOWAY

37 QB's have been drafted during BNT. I can't think of any UDFA's that would be considered a miss by Nix, but Terrelle Pryor is worth including as a 3rd round supplemental draft pick, so let's use 38.

Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Newton, and Bradford were all taken before the Bills had a selection, and of that list, Tannehill is the only QB who the Bills could have realistically pursued. The others were off the table or cripplingly expensive (Griffin.)

THE BNT MISS LIST

To make this list, I weighed the QB vs the Bills selection, and in a few cases, such as Ponder and Osweiler, the missed possibility to move up by trading a pick.

BIG MISS (1/38)

Andy Dalton QB Bengals WILLIAMS

SLIGHT MISSES (10/38)

Russell Wilson QB Seahawks GRAHAM

Christian Ponder QB Vikings DAREUS

Brock Osweiler QB Broncos GLENN

John Skelton QB Cardinals WANG

Kirk Cousins QB Redskins BRADHAM

Colin Kaepernick QB 49ers WILLIAMS

Colt McCoy QB Browns CARRINGTON

T.J Yates QB Texans J WHITE

Joe Webb QB Vikings BATTEN

Brandon Weeden QB Browns GILMORE

SMALL MISSES (6/38)

Mike Kafka QB Eagles EASLEY

Ryan Mallett QB Patriots SHEPPARD

Jimmy Clausen QB Panthers TROUP

Nick Foles QB Eagles GRAHAM

Mike Kafka QB Eagles EASLEY

Kirk Cousins QB Redskins BRADHAM

(Of course, we don't know how many of these guys will turn out. I'm attempting to be as unbiased as possible in regards to my personal feelings about prospects.)

If we look back to the 2011 draft, the talk was that Buffalo was very high on Christian Ponder, as evidenced by Andre Reed's Tweet saying he was looking forward to calling his name in the 2nd round. The Broncos gobbled up Osweiler early, but if Nix really wanted him, he could have had Glenn and then moved up for Osweiler. Russell Wilson is another guy who is looking like he could make it up to the big miss list.

So I'm gonna score Nix 4 significant misses in three drafts. Graham, Dareus, Glenn, and Arron Williams are the compensation for those 4 misses, so as a positive note, there are (as of now) no busts in those slots.

Four of thirty eight (11%) misses is a number that needs some qualifiers to make it discussion worthy. Obviously, every fan would have a bit of variation in the evaluation process, but I'm confident this is an acceptable tally for the majority of Rumblers. The biggest qualifier is that the lower round prospects don't deserve as much weight as the higher rated QB's. If anyone has a suggestion on how to add that variable, please comment.

I'm not going to take a stance on if this is a good job by Buddy for avoiding the bad QB's or if it shows that Buddy has done a bad job in the draft. I will say, however, that there really isn't evidence to say he's done a horrible job.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The last chart shows the current starting quarterback for each NFL team. This clearly shows how seldom a great QB becomes available in the NFL. (Once again, I know some will dispute the chart, but I'm aiming for an unbiased, general fan view.) The only name that jumps out as a miss is Andy Dalton, and Wilson could move to a miss if he does well.

Nix has not found a good young prospect to draft and develop yet. We all want that. No one thinks Fitzy is the elite QB who makes the Bills contenders despite the rest of the roster. That guy is incredibly hard to acquire. Considering all of the information here, I think Bills fans have reason to approve of how CHIX has handled the situation so far, and if they draft a QB high next year, the Bills could be sitting pretty with a solid mentor and steady influence in Fitzpatrick.

In the big picture, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a blessing for the Bills, in that he's developed into a QB that has a chance to help the team to the playoffs. His inconsistencies have a bunch of Rumblers worried, but I implore everyone to go into this season realizing how much worse it could be, and how few chances Nix has had to create a better situation. Enjoy the Amish Rifle while you can, and recognize the good of our situation!

afdmtf= Does the average fan desire this QB for the 2012 and beyond Buffalo Bills MORE than Fitzy?

ldbf= Has the QB been locked down by his franchise? Has he been unavailable during BNT?

moa= How would Nix acquire the QB? (t=trade, d=draft,)

pac= Was he avaliable, and would Bills fans want him over Fitzy?

elite rank= grouped by category into a, b, or c.

cost= mhdp (multiple high draft picks) or Bills player drafted.



afdmf (average fan desire more than fitzy) ldbf (locked down by franchise) moa (method of aquire) pac (passes all criteria) elite rank cost
ari kolb n n t n c
atl ryan y y n n b
bal flacco y y n n b
buf fitzy x x x x x
car newton y y d n a mhdp
chi cutler y y n n b
cin dalton y n d y b williams
cle weeden y n d y b gilmore
dal romo y y n n b
den manning y n t y a mario
det stafford y y n n a
gb rodgers y y n n a
hou shaub y y n n b
ind luck y y d n a mhdp
jak gabbert n n d n c dareus
kan cassel n y n n c
mia tannehill y y d n b mhdp
min ponder y n d y b dareus
ne brady y y n n a
no brees y y n n a
nyg manning y y n n a
nyj sanchez n y n n c
oak palmer n n t y b mhdp
phi vick y y n y b
pit rothles y y n n a
sd rivers y y n n b
sf smith n n t n c
sea wilson y n d y b graham
stl bradford y y n n b mhdp
tb freeman n y n n c
ten locker y n d y b dareus
was rgIII y y d n a mhdp


y=24 n=10 d/t=14 y=8 a=10






y+a=1






y+b=7

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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