FanPost

Statistical Proof: It's Not That Bad!


I am a stats guy. When I play Madden winning doesn't matter (because it's going to happen), stats matter. With that said, are stats really worth anything? Can they really tell you about how the team has played, or even how the team will play? As we finish our fourth week of the season I would like to take a look back, and forward, to see how the 2012 Bills project compared to the Bills of last year, and to the 2011 league as a whole.

Passing:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 288/500, 57.6%, 3724 Yards, 48 Tds, 28 Ints, 16 Sacks, 89.8 Rating

What does this tell us?
With this type of production Fitzpatrick would have led the league in TD's last year. He would also have led in interceptions (like he did anyway). The Bills threw the most last year with 25 compared to 24 TDs. He would be right in the middle of the pack in yards, and about 3% below average in pass completions. Would you trade three interceptions more from last year for 24 more touchdowns on less attempts?

Rushing:
CJ Spiller, 164 rushes, 1364 yards, 8.3 Avg, 12 Tds
Tashard Choice, 136 rushes, 580 yards, 4.3 Avg, 0 Tds
Fred Jackson, 76 rushes, 176 yards, 2.3 Avg, 0 Tds
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 60 rushes, 264 yards, 4.4 Avg, 0 Tds
Johnny White, 32 rushes, 136 yards, 4.3 Avg, 0 Tds
Brad Smith, 16 rushes, 44 yards, 2.8, O Tds
Dorin Dickerson, 4 rushes, -32 yards, -8 Avg, 0 Tds

What does this tell us?
The Bills are on pace to top 2500 yards rushing as team. Obviously these numbers will be orgainzed differently since injuries have affected early season projections. 2500 yards would have made the Bills second best rushing offense last year. 12 TDs would equal last years total.

Receiving:
Stevie Johnson, 60 catches, 780 yards, 12 Tds
Donald Jones, 52 catches, 688 yards, 8 Tds
Scott Chandler, 48 catches, 700 yards, 16 Tds
CJ Spiller, 36 catches, 476 yards, 4 Tds
TJ Graham, 32 catches, 260 yards, 4 Tds
Brad Smith, 12 catches, 260 yards, 4 Tds
Fred Jackson, 12 catches, 200 yards, 0 Tds
Tashard Choice, 12 catches, 36 yards, 0 Tds
Dorin Dickerson, 8 catches, 144 yards, 0 Tds
David Nelson, 2 catches, 31 yards, 0 Tds
Corey McIntyre, 4 catches, 36 yards, 0 Tds

What does this tell us?
Scott Chandler's numbers would be good enough for 3rd in the league in TD's behind only Gronk and Megatron. Maybe he needs a nickname. Stevie's would make him 5th, but he is obviously not putting up as many yards. If Donald Jones keeps it up those numbers actually look fairly respectable. Who wouldn't like to have two of the leagues leading touchdown catchers on their team?

Kicking:
Rian Lindell, 16-24 FG 66%

What does this tell us?
Lindell would have been the worst Kicker in the league with these numbers last year, instead of the second worst like he was. He averaged 74.2% last year, while the Falcons averaged 93.1%. I know it is a small sample size, but I wouldn't be against letting Potter kick a ball at practice, lets see if he can kick.

Punt Return:
Leodis McKelvin, 24 returns, 29.7 Avg, 4 Tds

What does this tell us?
Leodis is having a monster year returning the ball. The number one team last year, the Devin Hester led Bears, averaged 15.7 yards a return. The Bills last year averaged 12.7.

Kick Returns:
Leodis McKelvin, 20 returns, 524 yards, 26.2 Avg

What does this tell us?
The 49ers led the league last year with 27.2 yards a return. The Bills averaged 23.1.

Defense:
Nick Barnett, 148 tackles, 4 FF
George Wilson, 108 tackles
Stephon Gilmore, 80 tackles, 4 FF
Jarius Byrd, 96 tackles, 8 FF
Bryan Scott, 74, 4 FF
Arthur Moats, 64 tackles
Kelvin Sheppard, 60 tackles, 4 sacks
Kyle Williams, 56 tackles, 14 sacks
Justin Rogers, 40 tackles
Da'Norris Searcy, 40 tackles, 4 FF
Mario Williams, 36 tackles, 6 sacks
Aaron Williams, 36 tackles
Mark Anderson, 28 tackles, 4 sacks
Nigel Bradham, 28 tackles
Terrance McGee, 28 tackles
Chris White, 20 tackles
Marcel Dareus, 28 tackles, 8 sacks
Leodis McKelvin, 12 tackles
Spencer Johnson, 16 tackles
Alex Carrington, 16 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 FF
Chris Kelsey, 8 tackles

What does this tell us?
The Bills would get 28 forced fumbles and 40 sacks. The sacks would have been good enough for 14th in the league and 11 more than last year. They forced 17 fumbles last year. Kyle Williams would have been 5th in the league in sacks. Barnett's tackles would be good enough for 6th in the league last year. He is obviously extremely important to our defense. P.S. Kyle Williams is so awesome.

Interceptions:
Bryan Scott, 8 Ints
Leodis McKelvin, 1 Int
Jarius Byrd, 1 Int

What does this tell us?
The Bills are on pace for 10 Ints, 26th in the league last year. Last year they had 20 for 9th place. The secondary has been very hit or miss in mind. In general I like what I have seen out of Gilmore, Williams and Rogers. They have all made mistakes but progress is being made. Maybe if the team can generate some pressure every once in a while or send one of those things.. what's it called when you send extra defenders after the quarterback? Who knows, oh well.

Scoring:
What does this tell us?
Bills are on pace for 460 points, which would have been good for 5th overall, instead of 14th at 372 points.

Overview:
The team is on pace for an 8-8 season. The offensive output looks improved. The defensive turnovers and sacks also look improved. Are our blowouts just the result of playing AFC East teams poorly? The stats show that we can produce. We just need to find some consistency to turn this wagon around.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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