FanPost

In Depth Weekly Playoff Picture Update

In case anyone's wondering, this is the site I use for percentage chances:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html

Per the site: All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

So it's not like they just assume every team has a 50% to win any given game. That said, it would be nice if they specified how they're calculating the percentage.

Again, if you need a refresher on Tie break procedures:

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Anyways, on with it.

Outside of the Jets and the Dolphins losing this weekend, very little went right for the Bills (that said I'll go ahead and be very happy about that, because that was about 75% of what we needed to go right).

GOOD

Jets lose. Go to 5-6. Hurray!

Dolphins lose. Go to 5-6. Hurray!

Saints beat the Falcons. Good for the Bills in that the Falcons look like they have nothing to play for, and everything to gain by tanking.

Jaguars beat the Texans. This one actually went right. I'm not afraid of the Jags at all, this one helps our Strength of Schedule and hurts other team's Strength of Schedule (should we actually need it), and it essentially takes the Texans out of the picture.

PROBABLY NOT BAD

The Buccaneers beat the Lions. You might be thinking "This doesn't affect the AFC Playoff picture, and don't we want the Bucs to win for Strength of Schedule?" I mean theoretically yes, the Strength of Schedule is good for us. Not good for us, the Buccaneers getting some confidence and deciding to build some momentum for next year. I think that the Strength of Schedule tie break comes into play so infrequently, it'd probably just be better for us for the Bucs to lose every game from here on out. Also, the Lions play a couple of teams we'd like to see lose, I'd sort of like them to be playing with confidence and be on a roll.

The Cardinals beat the Colts. I didn't see this coming. Technically this boosts the Bills chances. (Strength of Schedule). What I'm worried about is the Colts looking like a wounded animal, and suffering that loss, having just put a ton of film out for other coaches on their schedule to study and find their weak spots.

PROBABLY BAD

Titans beats the Raiders. Both were 4-6, one had to win. The Titans appear to have the easier schedule remaining.

The Steelers, who appear to be on a winning streak, beat the Browns. Both hold tie breakers over us, but the Steelers seem to be a little scarier of the two and have the easier schedule. This was a road game and they made it look easy.

BAD

Chargers beat the Chiefs. Puts them 1 game ahead of us, and has them looking dangerous. I'm pretty convinced that Phillip Rivers would have won a SB had he played for the Giants (who actually drafted him, but traded for Eli Manning since Manning didn't want to play in San Diego) or Steelers (who couldn't draft him and took Big Ben instead). Other teams Rivers could have won a SB with replacing their starting QB? The Texans (imagine Rivers to Andre Johnson with a real defense and with a real RB, I don't think Rivers has ever had real receivers, a real RB and a real defense all at the same time). Definitely could have gone to the SB (maybe not won it) with the Jets replacing Matt Sanchez. Anyways, Rivers looks dangerous, their D isn't the best, but they might be good enough. Chargers are looking like a major road block at the moment.

Patriots beat the Broncos. Had the Broncos won, the Patriots would have been 7-4 and been on a two game losing streak (with plenty of film for opposing coaches to study to try and find some weaknesses). The possibility of them losing 3 more games including one to the Bills and one to the Dolphins was a possibility (around 1%, small chances, but non-zero). This could have opened the door for the Bills to get the AFC East playoff spot instead of a Wild Card spot. Now that seems exceedingly unlikely, as they need to lose 4 games instead of 3.

AFC Playoff Picture/Prediction

#1 seed: The Broncos win out. 14-2

#2 seed: The Patriots win out. 13-3

#3 seed: The Colts finish 11-5, losing to the Chiefs.

#4 seed: The Bengals finish 11-5, losing to the Colts.

#5 seed: The Chiefs finish 12-4, losing to the Broncos, and the Chargers once.

#6 seed: The Titans finish 8-8 and win the Tie Breaker based on conference record. Losing to the Broncos and Colts. This requires they beat the Cardinals (dicey) and lose to the Colts (Colts are looking weak).

Bills finish 8-8, losing to the Patriots.

Chargers finish 8-8 losing to the Broncos and Bengals. This requires they lose to the Bengals (dicey) and beat the Chiefs again (which will be a home game). Should the Titans lose to one more game to finish 7-9, it appears that the Chargers have a good possibility of holding the Strength of Victory tie breaker. Here's to hoping I'm wrong and the Bills win against the Patriots, the Titans lose to the Cardinals, and the Chargers crash and burn entirely.

Pittsburgh 7-9 with losses to the Ravens, the Bengals and Packers. Seems dicey. They're playing well all of a sudden. Maybe not playoff caliber football, but of those games I'm counting as being losses, which of those teams are? Pittsburgh could very well finish 9-7. Or maybe the Browns are just awful. Let's hope it's just that the Browns are awful. And that Aaron Rodgers gets healthy.

Ravens finish 7-9 with losses to the Patriots, Lions, and Bengals. Also seems dicey. The Patriots game seems like a definite loss. Bengals and Lions are both currently playoff teams, and it seems like the Lions got screwed on some weird turnovers, but the Bengals and Lions both look weak at the moment.

Dolphins finish 7-9 with losses to the Steelers, Patriots, and Bills.

Jets finish 7-9 with losses to the Dolphins twice and the Panthers. Seems dicey relying on the Dolphins to take out the Jets for us twice. If the Jets win one of those games to finish 8-8, they have a very good shot at beating us based on Strength of Victory.

Browns finish 5-11. Texans 3-13. Jags 2-14.

Feel free to create your own scenarios here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

NFC Playoff Picture/Prediction

#1 Seed: Seahawks finish 14-2, losing to the 49ers on the road.

#2 Seed: Saints finish 13-3, losing to the Seahawks on the road.

#3 Seed: Lions finish 11-5 winning out. Lions hold head to head win over the Bears.

#4 Seed: Eagles finish 9-7, losing to the Lions and Bears.

#5 Seed: 49ers finish 12-4 winning out.

#6 Seed: The Panthers finish 11-5 with losses to the Saints twice, holding the Tie breaker over the Bears with a better Conference record.

The Bears finish 11-5 winning out.

Packers finish 8-7-1.

The Cardinals finish 8-8.

Cowboys finish 7-9

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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