Another week in and I am inching towards a winning season. My goal at this point (rest of season and playoffs) is to to collect some cash. At this point, I need to do quite a bit as the vig (or juice) is just killing me at this point. My bookie is a lucky guy. I bought all of his kids their Christmas presents with the season I've had this far. But, 3-2-0 last week puts me at 34-37-2 on the season or -$335 if you're a $50 bettor playing one unit per play. Let's recap:
JAX+3 (W) As expected, Houston came out flat as they we're spent after New England the week before. The Jags capitalized with big defense. (admittedly, betting on Jacksonville is always scary)
CIN-6.5 (W) Cinci at home is proving to be profitable. Who knew? Watching the Bungles about to take the AFC North is something I didn't think I'd see in a long time.
BUF+2.5 (L) Why not? The kid is gonna have to learn to win on the road. Coming off a tough road loss in Canada, he'll bounce back with a strong showing here. That was the logic behind this pick last week...look for similar logic again in week 15. Hopefully (for pride...not the draft pick) it works out.
NE-10 (L) Really?!?!?! And to top it off they are gift wrapped a win by crappy officiating. (Side note: Had this conversation with some friends - Doesn't it seem that more and more often officials are deciding wins and covers? I am not a conspiracy nut that thinks these games are run by Vegas, but it's seems more frequent of late...just sayin')
NO-3 (W) Not sure I'll side with New Orleans in Carolina next week...but at home, they're unstoppable.
Week 15 Lines:
NE@MIA PK O/U45.5
GB@DAL - NO LINES YET
My Week 15 Picks:
DEN-10.5**: I know, I know...divisional rivals. Denver in between a KC divisional sandwich. Doesn't matter. Manning is impeccable on Thursday night going 9-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in these contests.
CHI-1.5****: To me this game is simple (as long as Cutler doesn't start...which doesn't look likely). Chicago needs it more. They need to stay in line with Detroit (who has beat them twice) in order to claim the NFC North. Cleveland was dealt the death blow with the BS New England loss last week (although their chances of the post-season were slim-to-none anyway). The Brownies are spent; and they are in no position to play spoiler.
BUF-2*: I don't really like this play, but I said I'd make a Bills play every week. I just can't bet on Jacksonville as they won their primetime "super bowl" last week. I have a feeling the mood in Buffalo is all or nothing. I'm aware that the armchair quarterbacks all believe they are in eval mode. I think they are in WIN mode to build some momentum going into the offseason.
PHI-4.5***: Minny's defense is terrible against the pass. Nick Foles will look to get his passing game going again after the snow killed it last week. Minny's running game will be equally terrible now with AP out and Toby Gerhardt banged up. Look for a big Philly cover.
ARI-2.5**: Ryan Fitzpatrick will face a very hungry defense that is trying to lead its team to a 6th seed. If Arizona can continue to win and play well it falls into the muddy playoff picture in the NFC. Look for them to handle the Titans who are now eliminated and (like Cleveland) in no position to play spoiler.
PIT+2**: Cincy is coming off the big emotional win...and they are firmly in control of the AFC North. Pittsburgh on the other hand is staring at a mighty uphill battle to reach the postseason. It'll all start with a win at home against a team that doesn't play nearly as well on the road as they do at home. This game means literally nothing to one team and the entire season to the other.
That's my card...what do y'all like this weekend?