In Depth Weekly Playoff Picture Update

Well, that about does it for the Bills already slim to none chances. Unless of course they want to win 4 in a row and the Ravens, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Jets and Dolphins all want to lose at least 2 games.

If you had asked me at the beginning of the season if I'd have been happy with 7-9 I'd have said yes, improvement is improvement. If you had asked me yesterday morning, or even yesterday with a 14-0 lead, I would have said no way, 8-8 is what I want to see. Anyways...

With the loss they went from about a 5% chance to a 1% chance at the Wild card spot. The interesting thing here is that all the other teams losing at least 2 games isn't all that unrealistic.

This past week, I missed on the following 4 games: Giants vs Redskins (had the skins), Bills vs Falcons (derp), Bears vs Vikings (apparently the Bears are quite a bit worse than I thought, and the Vikings aren't complete trash), Browns vs Jags (they're both bad, it's hard to pick the Who Sucks Worse games). I have the Seahawks picked to defend home field advantage tonight.

Predictions for the Rest of the Season, subject to change:

Week 13

Seahawks over Saints

Week 14

Texans over Jags

Patriots over Browns

Colts over Bengals

Steelers over Dolphins

Saints over Panthers

Ravens over Vikings

Bills over Bucs

Jets over Raiders

Lions over Eagles

Chiefs over Redskins

Broncos over Titans

Cardinals over Rams

Chargers over Giants

49ers over Seahawks

Falcons over Packers (least confident, depends on Rodgers)

Cowboys over Bears (2nd least confident, had it the other way around earlier in the season)

Week 15

Broncos over Chargers

Falcons over Redskins

Saints over Rams

Colts over Texans

Seahawks over Giants

49ers over Bucs

Bills over Jags

Patriots over Dolphins

Eagles over Vikings

Titans over Cardinals

Bears over Browns

Chiefs over Raiders

Panthers over Jets

Cowboys over Packers (depends on Rodgers)

Bengals over Steelers

Lions over Ravens

Week 16

Bengals over Vikings

Saints over Panthers

Broncos over Texans

Chiefs over Colts

Rams over Bucs

Eagles over Bears

Jets over Browns

Redskins over Cowboys (not confident, likely to change in the coming weeks)

Bills over Dolphins

Titans over Jags

Lions over Giants

Seahawks over Cardinals

Packers over Steelers (depends on Rodgers playing and other assorted injuries)

Chargers over Raiders

Patriots over Ravens

49ers over Falcons

Week 17

Bengals over Ravens

Giants over Redskins

Steelers over Browns

Lions over Vikings

Titans over Texans

Dolphins over Jets

Colts over Jags

Bears over Packers (Rodgers, blah)

Eagles over Cowboys

Saints over Bucs

Panthers over Falcons

Patriots over Bills

Broncos over Raiders

Seahawks over Rams

49ers over Cardinals

Chargers over Chiefs

AFC Playoff Picture/Prediction

#1 seed: The Broncos 14-2

#2 seed: The Patriots 13-3

#3 seed: The Colts 11-5

#4 seed: The Bengals 11-5

#5 seed: The Chiefs 12-4

#6 seed: The Titans finish 8-8 and win the Tie Breaker based on conference record.

Bills finish 7-9, losing to the Patriots. Although 6-10 wouldn't shock me, coughing up a loss to the Bucs. Yuck.

Chargers finish 8-8

Pittsburgh 7-9 The Packers game looms large.

Ravens 7-9 with losses to the Patriots, Lions, and Bengals. Dicey. The Patriots game seems like a definite loss. Bengals and Lions are both currently playoff teams, but I don't think the Broncos, Saints Patriots, 49ers and Seahawks of the world are going to be afraid of playing them come January.

Dolphins 7-9

Jets 7-9

Browns finish 4-12. Texans 3-13. Jags 3-13.

For the Bills to make the playoffs, using the above as a predictive model (which we'll say has a 61.78% accuracy, since I'm 118 out of 191 on the season, 62% is also ew, 2011 I was just under 70% 2012 I was at 64.42%), we need 2 deviations from the model, the Bills need to beat the Patriots in week 17, and the Titans needs to lose to the Cardinals in week 15 (or the Jags in week 16 or the Texans in week 17). So while it's a long stretch for them to make the playoffs, I don't think it's entirely outside the realm of possibility (we would hold the tie break over the 8-8 Chargers based on Conference record).

NFC Playoff Picture/Prediction

#1 Seed: Seahawks 14-2.

#2 Seed: Saints 13-3

#3 Seed: Lions 11-5

#4 Seed: Eagles 10-6

#5 Seed: 49ers 12-4

#6 Seed: Panthers 11-5

The Bears finish 8-8, I've revised them down after a brutal loss to the Vikings, and don't trust them to beat the Cowboys or Eagles anymore.

Packers finish 6-9-1.

The Cardinals finish 8-8.

Cowboys finish 9-7 (revised up from last week, seems like I keep underestimating them)

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of

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