FanPost

Consistency VS. Lightning Strike

In a story thread earlier this week, some Rumblers got into an interesting debate: whether it mattered that the Bills seem to get their rushing yards in huge chunks instead of consistent gains. As one writer pointed out, those big plays led to points, and that’s the important thing. I kinda sided with the opposing viewpoint, however, feeling that a steady ground game helps teams control the clock (Buffalo currently ranks 29th in Time of Possession) and ultimately salt games away.

Needing some evidence, I looked at rushing Yards Per Attempt (YPA) of AFC division leaders plus the Bills. Then, I subtracted the longest rush from each game to get an "Adjusted YPA". In other words, if the Bills had 20 rushes for 100 yards with a long run of 80 yards, then the adjusted totals are 19 rushes for 20 yards. This mitigates the "Lightning Strike" effect.

RESULTS:

TEAM……. YPA…………….Adjusted YPA…………% Decrease

N.E…………4.2…………………….3.54…………….….... 16% down

CINCI…..….3.8……………………..3.25…………….……..14% down

COLTS…….4.4…………………......3.64…………….……..17% down

DENV……...3.9…………………….3.42…………….……..13% down

BUFF……….4.2……………………3.28…………….……..23% down

Indeed, the Bills runners see a drastic drop-off in YPA when the Big Play is removed. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with big plays. But, waiting for lightning to strike can leave a team all wet. What do you think?

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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