Whether you agree with the picks or not, Spiller, Dareus and Gilmore came off the board about where most of the draft gurus seemed to think they would. Nix, who I don't support generally, seems to have been true to his board. It makes sense in terms of value, never mind that it leads to mind boggling decisions like Aaron Williams over Colin Kaepernick. This year a growing number of gurus are projecting Dion Jordan to Buffalo. I don't believe it for a couple of reasons.
First, now that football is over there is almost nothing a player can do to improve his draft stock (we love the numbers from the combine; GMs rely on game tape)--though there is plenty he can do to hurt it. Te'o, for example, likely dropped out of the top 10 due to his dead faux girlfriend's other worldly ability to haunt him from her non-existent grave. Other players will get arrested or injured between now and the draft. Assuming that Jordan doesn't do anything stupid/injurious over the next couple of months he's going to sit wherever he's already sitting on Nix's board.
Second, Nix's board - for the first round at least - has been in the ballpark of the boards constructed by many draftniks as I noted above. I looked at a sampling of big boards:
19. Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon: At a rangy 6-6 and 243 pounds, Jordan's length and explosiveness off the edge make him a matchup nightmare for opponents. Jordan led the Ducks a year ago with 13 tackles for loss and 7½ sacks, but wasn't as productive in 2012 (10½ tackles for loss, five sacks) and has struggled with nagging injuries throughout his career. He is earning high marks from scouts who believe he could be one of this year's most exciting "hybrid" prospects, as he's so athletic that Oregon asked him to line up as a quasi-cornerback at times. (4th DE)
39. Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon (6th DE)
16. Jordan suffered an injured shoulder at the end of the season and had to skip the Senior Bowl because of the resulting surgery. That's too bad, because he would have had a real chance to solidify himself as a top-15 pick with a good showing. (6th DE)
18. Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon <!--[if gte vml 1]> <![endif]--> - 6'7 - 243
11 Dion Jordan Oregon 6'6" 246 DE43 OLB34 0 (3rd DE) The ‘0' means that DraftTek believes that Jordan projects as well as a 4-3 DE as a 3-4 OLB.
12 Dion Jordan, OLB/DE Oregon
17) Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon: Jordan's athleticism and versatility could make him a star in a hybrid defense that incorporates the outside linebacker into the rush and coverage.
13. Dion Jordan | 6'6, 243 pounds | Defensive end | Oregon
13. Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Let's throw out the best (11) and worst (39) rankings. We're left with 19, 16, 18, 12, 17, 13, and 13. That averages out to 15.4. The draftniks see Jordan, overall, as a fringe top 15 pick. He's not seen as a top 10 pick. Given that (a) Nix's board for the first round has been more or less in alignment with the general draftnik consensus and (b) Nix stays true to the board in the first round, it's hard to see the Bills sitting at 8 and taking Dion Jordan. (I don't know that Nix stays true to the board in rounds after the first-I have to believe that Williams was taken due to need at CB and Nix's need to ensure that Fitz didn't have to worry about any serious competition after giving Fitz a contract extension.)
If the Bills trade down, perhaps to the 13-17 range then Jordan looks like he'd be more of a possibility. That would require Nix to work the board to ensure that need and value collide, something he hasn't done to date.
The draftniks don't see Dion Jordan as a top 10 pick. Do you?
Yes, and Nix would take him if he's on the board. (3 votes)
Yes, but Nix would take someone else even if he's on the board. (3 votes)
No, and Nix will be true to the board and not take him. (45 votes)
No, but Nix will take him anyway if he's on the board. (0 votes)
51 total votes