I'll present my "evidence" and let you guys decide.
Exhibit A: Nix acknowledged "it's a bad time to need a starting QB..."
Exhibit B: Nix acknowledged his willingness to release Fitzpatrick prior to the open of FA.
Exhibit C: By almost all accounts Alex Smith is a legitimate starting caliber QB in the NFL.
Exhibit D: Alex Smith was traded to KC for a second round pick (at least it's believed to be a second round pick)
My argument is that if you're desperate for a starting caliber QB but unwilling to part with a second round pick to acquire Smith—or at least have a dog in the fight—you must have another guy already in mind and be reasonably confident you'll land him. You must also have that guy valued higher than Smith in your own evaluation.
Can you have a guy you have ranked higher than Smith—a known commodity—sitting on the board until the second round? I don't think you can. In fact I don't even think you can sit idly behind a team like Arizona and watch them scoop him up.
So, I present the case that the Bills will take a QB at #8 or even move up a few spots to take him, and that QB will be Geno Smith.