Thoughts on the Kolb Signing

Some random thoughts about the Kolb signing

  1. There has to be a reason that in a three day span the Flynn to Raiders, Palmer to Cardinals and Kolb to Bills moves all started heating up. First, I believe it tells us that teams aren't feeling too good about this incoming quarterback class, at least in the first round. Second, and I'm guessing here, teams are starting to hear that the Jaguars are serious about taking Geno Smith 2nd overall so the QB needy teams below them had to quickly move to plan B for insurance. I don't think this precludes the Bills from taking a QB early but now they have a little flexibility if their guy isn't there in the first (Geno Smith) and can look to the second or third (Nassib, Wilson, etc..)
  2. Last year the Seahawks clearly needed to do something about their QB situation. They had Tavaris Jackson on the roster, and also realized they weren't in a position to get a top QB in round 1 of the draft so they decided to sign Matt Flynn. This gave them an opportunity to go BPA in round 1 (on their board anyway) and deal with finding their QB of the future later. The Seahawks are now considered geniuses but at the time they were panned for the Flynn contract. Sound a bit familiar? I don't think anyone will accuse Nix of being a genius anytime soon and I'm pretty sure we aren't going to get the next Russell Wilson but you can't blame the Bills for going down the same path.
  3. Kolb wlll probably never be a star but he can be better than what he showed in Arizona. If you are a believer in Pro Football Focus' methodology he was their 3rd ranked free agent QB, just below Flacco and above Hasselbeck. Also, Marrone's offense will be a lot more like Reid's WCO that Kolb showed some success in then it will be like Whisenhunt's offense that almost killed him. Whisenhunt was asking him to be Roethlisberger without the benefit of Pittsburgh's offensive line and Roethlisbergers size and insane ability to avoid sacks. Kolb was never suited for that offense, it was a recipe for disaster. But he is suited for a short drop, quick timed WCO, which is what I'm assuming Marrone has planned. At least for a large percentage of our offensive calls.
  4. It will be interesting to see if this changes mock draft projections. Until now a majority of the analysts I like to follow had us taking Geno Smith round 1. And assuming he is there I'm fairly positive that we will. But like I said, I think the recent moves imply that he won't be there and we will have to decide if we go BPA at another need or take a chance on Barkley/Nassib in round 1. Here is a list of said analysts and who they currently have us taking (as of 3/28) in round 1
Draft Site Mocker Pick Date
Drafttek Draftek Jarvis Jones 28-Mar
ESPN Todd McShay Chance Warmack 28-Mar
Sporting News Eric Galko Ryan Nassib 27-Mar
CNNSI Don Banks Matt Barkley 27-Mar Gil Brandt Geno Smith 27-Mar
Walter Football Walter Cherepinsky Cordarrelle Patterson 27-Mar
CBS Sports Dane Brugler Ryan Nassib 25-Mar
CBS Sports Pat Kirwan Matt Barkley 25-Mar
CBS Sports Rob Rang Matt Barkley 25-Mar
Sporting News Clifton Brown Geno Smith 25-Mar Charley Casserly Geno Smith 25-Mar
CBS Sports Will Brinson Geno Smith 25-Mar
CBS Sports Pete Prisco Geno Smith 25-Mar
SB Nation Dan Kadar Dion Jordan 25-Mar
Rotoworld Evan Silva Tyler Eifert 24-Mar
ProFootballTalk Mike Florio Matt Barkley 24-Mar
Draft Ace Ryan McCrystal Ezekial Ansah 23-Mar
Draft Countdown Scott Wright Jarvis Jones 22-Mar
Draft Daddy Matt Bitonti Tavon Austin 21-Mar Daniel Jeremiah Geno Smith 20-Mar Josh Norris Dion Jordan 20-Mar
East Coast Sports News Al Fronczak Matt Barkley 19-Mar
WGR Joe Buscaglia Matt Barkley 18-Mar Matt Smith Lane Johnson 18-Mar
SB Nation Matthew Fairburn Dion Jordan 18-Mar
CBS Sports Clark Judge Chance Warmack 18-Mar Bucky Brooks Geno Smith 15-Mar
National Football Post Russ Lande Ryan Nassib 14-Mar
ESPN Mel Kiper Jarvis Jones 11-Mar
Sporting News Vinnie Iyer Geno Smith 9-Mar
Sports on Earth Mike Tanier Ryan Nassib 7-Mar
Our Lads Dan Shonka Cordarrelle Patterson 7-Mar Charles Davis Chance Warmack 5-Mar
Sideline View Lance Zierlein Ezekial Ansah 1-Mar
Shutdown Corner Doug Farrar Dion Jordan 27-Feb Brian Billick Dion Jordan 25-Feb Scott Pioli Bjoern Werner 23-Feb
Times News Jason Boris

Smart Football Chris Brown

Sideline View Adam Caplan

PFW Nolan Nawrocki Mike Mayock

NFL Films Greg Cosell

LA Times Sam Farmer

Football Outsiders Matt Waldman

Football Guys Sigmund Bloom

Draft Insider Tony Pauline

CNNSI Peter King

To get an idea of how this breaks down, here are the pick percentages for each player as of 3/28

Player Picks %
Geno Smith 8 21.62%
Matt Barkley 6 16.22%
Dion Jordan 5 13.51%
Ryan Nassib 4 10.81%
Jarvis Jones 3 8.11%
Chance Warmack 3 8.11%
Ezekial Ansah 2 5.41%
Cordarelle Patterson 2 5.41%
Tyler Eifert 1 2.70%
Tavon Austin 1 2.70%
Lane Johnson 1 2.70%
Bjoern Werner 1 2.70%

When I did the same exercise on 3/21 I got the following results

Player Picks %
Geno Smith 7 21.21%
Matt Barkley 5 15.15%
Cordarrelle Patterson 5 15.15%
Dion Jordan 4 12.12%
Ryan Nassib 3 9.09%
Chance Warmack 2 6.06%
Lane Johnson 2 6.06%
Jarvis Jones 2 6.06%
Jonathan Cooper 1 3.03%
Bjoern Werner 1 3.03%
Eric Fisher 1 3.03%

As you can see the support for Geno Smith was pretty consistent, this has been true for some time. But I'm expecting this to change as we get closer to the draft. I'll do the same exercise every Thursday until draft day to track the changes.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of

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