Disclaimers: (1) I am no Brian Galliford, Matt Warren, et al. - nor do I claim to have anywhere near the level of football knowledge they or others here possess, (2) I don't know if this year's draft is particularly strong in the later rounds compared to prior years, and perhaps most importantly, (3) my intent is to use a use numbers to raise a philosophical point with the idea that doing so could spur some interesting discussion.
, it seems to me, have a lot of needs. LB (probably two), CB and most definitely QB. Mock drafts for the 8th pick are all over the board. If Geno Smith or Jarvis Jones is available at that spot, my thinking is that the Bills prioritize the players in that order, stick to their board and make the pick. If neither are, then I'd like to see a trade down. I realize, by the way, that Nix has said in the past that top ten picks don't come around too often and have to be used when they do. I also realize that the Bills haven't done much trading of picks over the last few years. And, I'll admit that I'm a fan of stockpiling picks. The first two are points against something like this happening and the last is my admission I'm inclined to try to find way it could happen.
Draftek published a matrix assigning a numberical value to draft picks (check it out at: http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf). The Bills have six picks in the draft, one each in rounds 1-6 (#8, 41, 71, 102, 136 and 167). There are a number of potential draft partners. Draftek's latest mock has a link to a trade with Tampa Bay. San Fran has a lot of picks in the draft, few obvious needs and limited cap space. For ease of analysis, I'm going to propose a trade with them. San Fran currently has 12 picks ([1st] #31, [2nd] 34, 61, [3rd] 74 and 93, [4th] 125, [5th] 150 and 157, [6th] 170 and 189, and [7th] 211 and 221). Seems to me San Fran could be looking to package some of its picks to move up.
My proposed trade would be Buffalo swaps its 1st and 6th for San Fran's 1st, the first 2nd, the first 3rd and 4th. Based on Draftek's valuation of the picks, the resulting values work out to be functionally identical.
8 1400 31 600
167 24.6 125 47
Total: 1425 1427
A variant on this trade would have the Bills ask for both 2nds, getting pick #61 rather than #74. Draftek rates pick #61 as having a value of 292 rather than 74 having 220. the difference between the two picks, 72 points is itself a 3rd round pick, specifically the 111th pick.
The most obvious result of this trade would be that Buffalo would fall out of the top ten and all the way down to #31.. The upside is that the Bills, a team with a lot of needs, would go from having six picks to having eight picks, all occurring in the 100 or so picks between #31 and 136 ([1st] #31, [2nd] 34, 41, [and 61?], [3rd] 71, 74 - if they don't get #61), [4th] 102 and 125, and [5th] 136).
Seems to me, and, again, this is my particular bias, the Bills, with all the needs they currently have, would be able to fill a lot of holes with so many quality picks. Somewhere between #31, 34 and 41, they could pick a QB (I'm leaning towards Bray at this point), plus the BPA of two of a quality LB, WR or CB. That's a lot of relatively high picks to sprinkle into a team that needs a lot of guys. I, personally, would like to see it happen. I think Nix/Whaley could remake the team with this one move.
What do you think? Would you be interested in the Bills making this sort of trade?
Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.