FanPost

An Atlanta Trade Scenario

First, just for Kurupt, Chris Kelsay will be calling the Bills 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft so you'll get one more look at him before he is inexplicably added to the Ring of Honor some day in the future.

And onto it...

The Falcons are reportedly interested in trading up.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated reports that the Falcons are trying to trade up from their current first-round pick, which is No. 30 overall. King said he doesn't know which player or players the Falcons are targeting, but they apparently like someone whom they expect to be off the board before No. 30 overall.

The PFT story links to one on ajc.com

The Falcons are in the cornerback market after parting ways with three of their top five corners. They cut Dunta Robinson, who signed with the Chiefs, and they let Brent Grimes (Miami) and Christopher Owens (Cleveland) walk in free agency. The team's top three corners are Asante Samuels, Robert McClain and Dominique Franks. A study of general manager Thomas Dimitroff's draftsreveals he's going to make a trade and it may be a very big one to move up and get a corner.

The Falcons flew up the board to draft Julio Jones at #6 overall in the 2011 draft. While some look at the slew of picks the Falcons shipped to Cleveland (2011 1st, 2nd, 4th, 2012 1st, 4th), the value was roughly equivalent. So, while the Falcons may indeed want to move up to grab Milliner or Rhodes or Trufant it's a fair bet that they won't get bent over in the process. As a team that is looking for that last piece to get over the conference championship hump, however, the Falcons have demonstrated the willingness to pay for the privilege of picking early in the first.

There are a couple ways a trade with Buffalo could be structured.

The simplest trade would be for Atlanta to send Buffalo 30 and 60 plus their 2014 first rounder. That totals about 1500 on the draft value chart, reasonably close to the value of Buffalo's 8th pick (1400).

A more complicated trade would involve Buffalo and Atlanta swapping first round picks (8 for 30), Buffalo swapping 71 for 60, Buffalo swapping its 4th for 92, and Buffalo getting Atlanta's 7th. This would give Buffalo 30, 41, 60, 92, Buffalo's 5th, 6th and Atlanta's 7th While Atlanta would have 8, Buffalo's 3rd and 4th, and Atlanta's 5th and 6th. This would leave Buffalo about 440 points down on the value chart, which is about the value of Atlanta's 2014 2nd and 3rd round picks. At the end of the day Buffalo would drop way down in the first, move from the early 3rd to late 2nd, move from the early 4th to late 3rd, and pick up Atlanta's 2013 7th, 2014 2nd, and 2014 3rd. The appeal to Buffalo is the addition of a 2nd and 7th round pick in 2013 along with adding a 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2014. The Falcons would move way up in the first, not have a 2nd or 7th round pick in 2013, but move up in the 3rd and 4th, and keep their original 5th and 6th, and in 2014 be short their 2nd and 3rd. The appeal for Atlanta would be losing 2 picks (2nd and 7th) in 2013 and 2 picks (2nd and 3rd) in 2014 while improving position in the 1st, 3rd and 4th in 2013.

There's a reason that simple is sometimes better.

Armed with an extra 2013 second and 2014 first the Bills could easily move up from 30. Buffalo's 3rd rounder, for example, along with 30 could get the Bills to about 20 - a slot that would allow for a merger of need and value if the target is Nassib or Barkley or Manuel. If the Bills trade out with Atlanta after the initial seven picks are off the board most of the QB needy teams will have picked, and not be willing to pay the freight to trade up into the middle of round one to get a QB who wasn't ‘worth' taking in the top 10.

While it would be better if the Bills could sit at 30 and take a QB, the danger of teams trading up increases as the first round nears a close. In some cases it could cost a QB needy team little more than a 2nd and 4th to trade with, say, New England. In this scenario, the Bills will get a QB in the middle-ish of the first round, have a pair of second rounders and also have an extra first round pick in 2014.


Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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