FanPost

A Discussion of Draft Value for all 32 Teams Over the Past 4 Years

(To see the charts better click on them with a right click and then select open in a new tab I didn't realize the charts were so small, they can be viewed much better) I decided to do this a while ago and finally found a decent metric that had every draft pick graded for the past four years. With what seems like huge amount of people seem to think that Nix was a sub par to miserable GM. I was rather biased and chose to look into the matter in as an objective way as I could. I broke down the top 5 draft choices of every team in the league and compared their values using the PFR career value metric. Nix is not the worst in the league, but he is nowhere near the miserable evaluator of talent that many people claim. On to the numbers which I used:

The data set can be found in this link to PTR or in this neat little picture of the excel sheet I made. The unified metric I used was the Approximate Value number which PFR uses as

"An attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year." Source

It takes into account where a player was drafted and what other players around the league are doing at that position along with games started and whole bunch of stuff. I used this to compare the GMs because it seems to be the most impartial measuring stick ensuring I wasn't favoring Nix or anyone else. Now to the colorful excel explanations! Green is good and red is bad, if you are having trouble interpreting anything.

The first chart I will present is just a straight up rankings with no adjustments. I took the AV score for each year across the teams and ranked them in the first chart and in the second averaged various years in the second. This chart is sorted via the average rank across all 4 years (09,10,11, 12).

* This numbers on the first chart are rankings 1-31, 1 is the best rank and 32 is the worst ranking for that draft class, with Green Bay having the best draft in 2009 and Dallas having the worst.

(Click here for a better view, it will open the picture in a new tab)

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via i.imgur.com

The following link is a direct link to the team AV totals which resulted in the rankings---> Link

The next two stats are my own creation and might be a tad confusing. I hope I can explain it as best as I can.

This next chart I took the team totals by year and discovered where the talent points were located and how the draft talent was proportioned. I didn't take rank into account here at all because it wouldn't give a good relative strength, just a 1 to 1 comparison. The best example of how this is calculated is looking at the 2009 draft results:

(Click here for a better view, it will open the picture in a new tab)

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via i.imgur.com

Here are the results of the teams across 4 years:

(Here are the results separated by draft class with the first column being the total points awarded, the total points available go up each year as each player performs better) As indicated with the Bills, their weakest draft has been the CJ spiller draft. After him, the only player who has produced is Alex Carrington. CJ had 21, Troup 0, Carrington 5, Easley 0, Wang 0, Batten 2)

In this table, the important statistic is the third column. It shows where the draft talent was proportioned. In the 2009 draft, the top four team draft classes had 5.5%, 5.3%, 5.2% and 5.1 (a total of 21.1) percent of the draft talent. While in 2012 the top 4 teams had 8.1% 7.6% 6.7% and 6.1% (a total of 29%)

(Click here for a better view, it will open the picture in a new tab)

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via i.imgur.com

Finally, I took each metric average and compared it across the teams. The three averages were Total Points Rank, Average Rank and Average Strength of Draft. This chart is sorted via the total strength of drafts across the 4 years because I felt that was the best metric because it weighed top players the most and duds the least. The red and blue data bars in between each metric is the difference in ranking which is best explained by looking at Detroit and Indy.

(Click here for a better view, it will open the picture in a new tab)

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via i.imgur.com

Indy has an extreme strength of draft because on average their drafts had extremely high percentages of good talent in drafts which across the board had small percentages. While Detroit is the exact opposite, they drafted high talent in draft years which across the board had a broad distribution of the large talent. Here are the results:

*The first chart is the total points rankings a sum of all the from 1-32 (here players such Clay Mathews at 46 points or LeSean Mcoy have the biggest impact) the second chart is the average draft rank so if you have a high total average , the second is the average rank across the board (here Miami does well with extremely well across the board 4 out of 32 total and ranking at 8, 8, 18 and 6 for an average of 10, here Indy does terrible with rankings at 19 out of 32 with ranks of 12, 28, 29, and 30 across the 4 years for an average of 19) The final chart is a strength of draft chart. It says how much talent the teams acquired have in proportion to other teams Indy scores so high here due to a phenomenal 2012 where they took 8 % of the total draft talent (Luck 13 QB, Fleener 4 TE, TY Hilton 8 WR, Allen 6 TE, Ballard 5 RB)

(Click here for a better view, it will open the picture in a new tab)

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via i.imgur.com


I made this as a discussion of the direction of the teams across the board and I feel like the data shows some pretty interesting stuff, I'd love to hear what you guys have to say before I add my thoughts.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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