FanPost

moneyball analysis, just nonsense or dangerous?

Hearing Russ Brandon discuss the idea of using moneyball type analysis for the Bills was probably just another marketing ploy but in reality, if Bills think they are employing some high level outside the box statistical analysis to make decisions over traditional scouting, it could be very damaging.

Football is simply far too dynamic with far too little data to make conclusions about players. KC Joiner often discusses how good a WR or DB is in various situations, such as in "medium passes to the left". In reality, if you watch every single play by every single WR, there are very few instances of the identical situation repeating itself. What was the down and distance? What was the offensive play call? What was the defensive play call? Was the CB supposed to play soft even in man to man where getting beat long is not worth the risk of being aggressive on covering the shorter route? Its not always clear whether the WR got open on his own or if the DB had different responsibility. If you are evaluating the QB, it is even more challenging to put a number on his performance for that play and use it to compare to other QBs. Sure, in some very limited situations such as one on one pass blocking and pass rushing, perhaps you can put a number on a DE or OL on how they fared but even then, it can be dependent on down and distance and other factors such as their individual responsibilities, weather and the score.

Basically, you need great scouts which the Bills have clearly lacked. Analysis of just numbers is of little to no use in football. Its completely different than baseball and even basketball. I hope Bills fans don't get enamored with this talk by Brandon although I sense it was a justification in the Manny Lawson signing.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.

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