|League Standings||Name||Games Won||Total Opponents Wins of Games Won||Point Ratio for all Games Played|
I'm not going to attempt to do power rankings at the moment. If I were, the Dolphins would not be on top.
How this is set up:
- Games won is the first tie breaker (obviously).
- Of the games won, the opponents' combined win total is the second tie breaker (this is basically a strength of victory tie breaker, was the opponent you beat a good team or a bad team).
- And Point ratio in all games played is the last tie breaker (another strength of victory tie breaker, but I feel that wins over poor teams, like the Jaguars skewers this, perhaps this should be weighted in some fashion).
So, for the Dolphins 3 wins, the Browns have 1 win, the Colts have 2 wins, and the Falcons have 1 win. Where as for the Seahawks 3 wins, the Panthers have 1 win, the 49ers have 1 win, and the Jaguars have 0 wins. This puts the Dolphins above the Seahawks (I assume that during the course of the season the Seahawks will continue to do well, and the Dolphins will not fare as well).
Meanwhile the Seahawks have an 86/113 Point Ratio in games they've played, where as the Saints have a 70/108 Point Ratio, putting the Seahawks above the Saints.
Something I feel is very telling is the Point Ratio, especially for the teams with losing records. For instance the Panthers and Packers (especially) are both better than then their 1-2 records indicate. The Panthers lost a close one to the Bills (that they probably shouldn't have), and hung around and lost another close one to the Seahawks (that they probably should have). Meanwhile the Packers lost a couple close ones to the 49ers, and the Bengals, two quality teams. They started last season 1-2 as well, losing close(ish) ones to the 49ers and Seahawks.
I'd like to eventually do Power Rankings of some sort, that are more metric driven than "Because I feel this team is better than that team." But I still need to come up with the right metric (unfortunately, NFL statistics are either paid for, or not well formatted, as in, I'd need to copy and paste them and then enter them into some sort of Database instead of setting up a Program that just goes and grabs a .csv or .xsl file and imports it to a database I want to use, anyone know of anywhere where the data is a little easier to grab?).
Anyways, thoughts from the number crunchers out there? Do you like the tie breakers I've chosen, or do you feel there are better ones to use? Ideas on metrics to use for power rankings? Eventually I would like to create some metrics that are capable of predicting outcomes of games and does so at high percentage (75% or greater).