FanPost

Context: Orton & Other QBs vs. Kansas City and Miami

This post is going to be pretty simple; Kyle Orton has only thrown 1 TD over his last 87 passes spanning 2 games. Those games occurred against Miami and Kansas City. Both teams have forced many bad games from opposing QBs, especially pocket passers, including MVP candidates Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. Kansas City has the #1 Pass Defense. Miami has the #2 Pass Defense.

Seriously, context is important; Orton's play in the last two games is far more impressive in context than it appeared. Don't trust me? Look below.

First, let's look at QB performances against Kansas City this year:

Jake Locker: 22/33, 266 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 4 Sacks, 111. 4 Rating

Peyton Manning: 21/26, 242 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sack, 143.9 Rating

Ryan Tannehill: 21/43, 205 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Fumble (0 Lost), 4 Sacks, 70.4 Rating

Tom Brady: 14/23, 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 2 Fumbles (1 Lost), 2 Sacks, 59.9 Rating

Colin Kaepernick: 14/26, 201 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Sacks, 92 Rating

Philip Rivers: 17/31, 205 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble (0 Lost), 2 Sacks, 83.4 Rating

Austin Davis: 15/25, 160 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 7 Sacks, 75.4 Rating

Michael Vick: 21/28, 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 105.7 Rating

Kyle Orton: 29/48, 259 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Fumbles, 1 Sack, 81.9 Rating [Also 4 drops]

Analysis: Orton tied for taking the least number of sacks, threw for the second most yards (and most after week 1), did not fumble (unlike 3 other QBs), did not throw an INT (unlike 3 other QBs). His QB rating was average against the Chiefs, almost identical to Rivers' numbers. Equally important is to look at the KC defense after week 2. While Locker and Manning played very well in the first two weeks, QBs since then have been shut down strongly. The only statistically excellent game since then was Michael Vick's, but it's important to note that Vick's stats were truly empty; the Jets scored only 10 points despite suffering 0 turnovers. Orton's 13 points were held down by 3 turnovers, including Bryce Brown's fumble at the 4 after an 11 play, 72 yard drive, not to mention 4 drops (2 would have been third down conversions).

Tom Brady and Tannehill were significantly worse across the board than Orton was, and Rivers' performance was very similar to Orton's. Brady had 3 turnovers and another fumble. Remember when the pundits were calling for a possible end to the Brady era in NE after that game? To be frank, Orton's performance was surprisingly mistake-free and effective given KC's defense. And though Orton's YPA was fairly low, Buffalo's offense gained about 30 more yards than Kansas City has given up on average, and sustained several drives.

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Now, let's look at QB performances against Miami this year:

Tom Brady: 29/56, 249 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Fumbles (2 Lost), 4 Sacks, 69.7 Rating

EJ Manuel: 16/26, 202 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Fumbles, 0 Sacks, 98.6 Rating

Alex Smith: 19/25, 186 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 1 Fumble (1 Lost), 5 Sacks, 136 Rating

Derek Carr (Raiders): 16/25, 146 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Fumbles, 1 Sack, 76.4 Rating

Matt McGloin (Also Raiders): 12/19, 129 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 0 Fumbles, 1 Sack, 61.0 Rating

Aaron Rodgers: 24/42, 264 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 1 Fumble (0 Lost), 3 Sacks, 99.7 Rating

Jay Cutler: 21/34, 190 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 Fumbles (1 Lost), 3 Sacks, 74.4 Rating

Blake Bortles: 18/34, 221 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 Fumble (1 Lost), 4 Sacks, 58.6 Rating

Philip Rivers: 12/23, 138 Yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 1 Fumble (1 Lost), 3 Sacks, 31.0 Rating

Matt Stafford: 25/40, 280 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0 Fumbles, 3 Sacks, 89.6 Rating

Kyle Orton: 22/39, 193 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Fumbles, 2 Sacks, 69.7 Rating

ANALYSIS: Well, look at that QB Rating. Tom Brady? 69.7. Kyle Orton? 69.7. However, QB Rating doesn't account for fumbles. Brady had 2 and both went for turnovers. Orton had none. Like KC, Miami also destroyed Phillip Rivers. Indeed, if Orton had played like Rivers, I might agree with many of the posters that it was time to move on. But Phillip Rivers is a good QB and he had 4 TOs and far worse numbers than Orton. I think it is highly relevant to look at Brady and Rivers, because they are two of the slowest-footed pocket passers, just like Orton. Orton's not quite at their level overall, no doubt, but in these games he was actually the best of the three. While they have been very good overall (yes, like Orton), they struggled with uniform badness against KC and Miami.

Other things to note? First, kudos to EJ Manuel. I can't deny that he played well against Miami and the statbook reflects that as much as the eye test. However, outside of the Miami game, Manuel's QB Rating was just above 70. Outside of the Miami game, Orton's QB Rating was 98.5.

Second. Only Orton and Manuel escaped Miami's defense without losing either an INT or having a fumble.

Third. Since Alex Smith torched Miami, they have not given up a single passer of 100 Rating. They, like KC, have been getting stingier as the year has progressed. Even Aaron Rodgers averaged barely over 6 yards per pass, way below his season and career averages. His numbers were good overall, but it's clear that QBs have struggled to throw passes of any length against Miami. Over the last 7 weeks, the highest YPA of any QB was Stafford's 7.0. Rivers was barely over 3 YPA! That's why Orton was trying to get the ball out so fast; they don't give QBs any time even when they aren't sacked. The fact that Alex Smith has the best game is telling; I believe he did not throw a single pass over 10 yards in the air in that victory over Miami, and consistently throws the fewest medium and long passes in the NFL.

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Look, Orton did not play well enough the last two weeks. Well, maybe he did against KC; If Woods has one extra catch and Brown doesn't fumble, the Bills score at least 9 more points (the 4th from the 15 becomes an FG) and probably 13 more points. But the point is that pocket passers have generally sucked against these teams and Orton's overall performance against Miami and KC was actually average. Indeed, he had 0 INTs and 0 fumbles, and even if he should have suffered a pick last night, his ball control and decision making against the top two pass defenses in the NFL was good.

Benching Orton for mediocre play against those teams the way they are beating QBs right now... well, it just makes no sense at all. When the Bills lose their 7th game, then give EJ some time on the field.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.