This might have been discussed elsewhere but I haven't seen it.
The majority of an NFL team's success can be attributed to having a solid-elite level Quarterback. Currently teams draft or sign a QB and invest several years into his development. Since there is a majority probability that the Quarterback will NOT develop to a solid-elite level, they repeat the process again by signing or drafting another Quarterback. In Buffalo's case, this process has lasted on or off since Drew Bledsoe (even that's debatable).
My proposal is for a team to spend a first round pick on a QB in every draft until they find an elite level QB, at the expense of every other position.
- Probability of Success - From a pure probability standpoint, since the majority of QBs do not become elite, a drafted QB is more likely to NOT become elite than become elite. By drafting a new QB every year at the top of the draft (sacrificing other needs since QB is proportionally more important than any other NFL position) you are more likely to eventually "hit" on an elite player. Think of the Detroit Lions and wide receivers. Charles Rogers. No. Roy Williams. Kinda. Calvin Johnson. Big Yes.
- Competition - Having several heralded young QBs fighting for one starting position will force the cream to rise to the top. They will develop stronger will power, drive for success, and mental strength. If one is struggling, plug the QB excelling in practice to the lineup.
- Trade Value - If you managed to develop 2 good QBs or more, you can trade the ones you are ready to get rid of for a high draft pick (since good QBs are very valuable on the trade market).
- Coaches Improve Job Security - Since many NFL coaches and GMs stake their jobs on their one big first round QB, it's no surprise that they are constantly fired since the probability of hitting on a first round QB is less than 50%. Drafting 3 QBs in 3 years, improves the odds that at least one of those QBs show promise and extends your contract.
- Quarterback Confidence - One thing many NFL personnel concern themselves with is a QB's supposed fragile confidence. Since they have so much going on in their mind compared to other position players, uncertainty of their starting position can ruin their confidence. The other side of the coin, maybe the lack of security and grooming will allow NFL coaching staffs to see a player's "true colors" much faster since the same intangibles that may allow a QB to outshine his competition, will drive them to perform better on gameday.
- Other Positions - Drafting a QB in the first round every year, means you are not drafting any other position in the first round every year (unless you have two 1st round picks). This may lower the overall quality of the team. The other argument is that some years there may not be any 1st round worthy QBs and you can spend a 2nd round pick on one and a 1st round pick on any other position. Trading down a high pick is another scenario.
- NFL Coaches Don't Like to Take Chances - It's a copycat league for the main reason that an NFL coach has a short window to become successful. They don't have time to play around and do new things. They also don't want the "humiliation" of trying something new and having it fail miserably. Since no team has ever done this, this would be a MAJOR change in philosophy and require GM and Owner approval all the way.
- If This is Successful, The Market Will Saturate Fast - Again this is a copycat league, if one team does this and succeeds after 3 QBs, several teams will jump on the bandwagon to draft a QB every year. Since there are very few high-end QB prospects, they will be plucked away immediately and this philosophy will be difficult to achieve. The first team that does this and succeeds, will probably be the last.
What is everybody's opinion on this?