EJ had an okay year but I think its a long shot that he will ever be a stud, pro bowl QB. For any non Andrew Luck type blue chip, the odds are low. But after watching his rookie year, I would give it about a 2%. As a lifelong diehard Bills fan, I am just hoping now that EJ develops into a slightly above average starter (about 16th best QB) in the NFL. I think the odds of that are still low, like less than 8%. EJ's ceiling if everything goes right from here on out I think is Steve McNair. Will EJ get better w/ better protection, playcalling, playmakers and a defense behind him. Most likely. I just don't think that is good enough. Based on 2 scouts I've spoken to (colts and gmen), they didn't love the EJ pick initially. Granted, they are watching mostly college players during the season and didn't watch every single one of EJ's snaps, but they confirmed with me that their teams had pretty low grades for EJ and viewed him more as a 4th round type prospect. They also both are big believers in Whaley and feel that Whaley was pressured to make the pick. I've also spoken to one former Bills WR who has told me that he thinks EJ is very similar to Trent Edwards. Casserly essentially confirms what kind of prospect EJ is by suggesting there are 8 qbs in this year's draft class with higher grades:
I don't think the Bills will take a QB with the 1st pick. I do think a QB in the 3rd rd is likely, someone similar to where Eagles got Foles and Seahawks got Wilson. Finding a franchise QB is something a team without one should always be trying to do. Once you have a franchise QB, you are consistently competitive. I have no idea what type of grades the Bills have on this year's crop of QBs. But if the Bills have an A+ type grade for Bridgewater and had only a B+ grade for EJ, and Bridgewater is sitting there for our first pick, Bridgewater would be the correct choice. That is the most important position, he would qualify as best available and he would also be an upgrade at the position. I know the suggestion of taking a QB with the first pick is unpopular on this board. I am not saying the Bills should take a QB no matter what. But if they have a great grade on a QB compared to EJ, it would be the right move. I love EJ's personality and work ethic and he does have some good intangibles, but right now the majority of people in the NFL would be very surprised if he develops into a great QB. You also probably couldn't even trade EJ for a 2nd or 3rd rd pick in this year's draft after what EJ put on tape. I'll cheer and support for EJ but I suspect the Bills are going to hedge their investment and target a QB in the 3rd or 4th rd. The Seahawks took Wilson after a big contract to Flynn (and Flynn hadn't played a down). The Eagles took Barkley even though they had Foles and Vick. The Panthers took Cam after using their first pick in the previous year on Claussen. Heck the Bills took Frank Reich in the 3rd rd only 2 years after taking Jim Kelly.